Wednesday Storm (15/08):MOD WARNING #626 High Winds + Heavy Rain/Flooding Likely

Mr Benevolent

Deleted User wrote: »

I am to travel to Kilkenny from Dublin tomorrow, worth going ? ?

How do you mean? It's not going to be hurricane level winds, so unless you're walking or cycling it shouldn't be a problem.

Avox

Hey guys! A major noob at weather here (like quite literally cannot tell each picture from picture ) but I'm in Waterford and we're supposed to be having a party later this week.. anyone have any kind of indication as to whether we'll be hit by it? We usually miss out on it all so I presume it'll be the same this time! Live about 20 minutes from the coast if that makes any difference!

Coles

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The main risk would seem to be the 11pm Weds and 11am Thursday high tides, dumping of as much water as is possible out of that Leixlip dam should be underway now so that they can close the gates for the 2 hours or so before high tide.

Because Leixlip Reservoir is so small it would only have a very minimal impact at holding back the flood waters. Even though the level at Poulaphuca is quite high it will be able to hold back a massive amount of water. 50mm of rainfall would only raise the level by about 900mm which it can easily accommodate.

It appears that no preparations are being made by either reservoir to lower their levels in preparation of this storm, although because of the time it takes for water to flow form Poulaphuca to Dublin the best course of action at this stage would be for Poulaphuca to hold back water so as to accommodate flood waters from the catchment downstream. Just my 2 cents.

Link to Liffey Releases

Harps

Deleted User wrote: »

I am to travel to Kilkenny from Dublin tomorrow, worth going ? ?

Assuming you keep to main roads then you shouldn't have any real problems, just be cautious obviously with heavy rain and look out for fallen trees

The wind doesn't look particularly strong by a winter storm's standards but at this time of year with trees in full leaf it could be a lot more damaging. Similar to this storm in May 2010 which caused a lot of damage around the north west. Similarly rainfall doesn't look exceptional but with the south already saturated it won't take too much rain for floods to occur

allthedoyles

try this :

http://easytide.ukho.gov.uk/EASYTIDE/EasyTide/SelectPrediction.aspx?PortID=0761A

MrFrisp

NewsTalk radio just saying now that is could be as bad as Hurricane Charlie back in 1986.

Would that be right?





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Mr Benevolent

MrFrisp wrote: »

NewsTalk radio just saying now that is could be as bad as Hurricane Charlie back in 1986.

Would that be right?

Nah, just hype. Any bit of news to get people worried. It'll just be a bit windy.

MrFrisp

Thanks Confab..

Glad to know at least people on here get it right..





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Redsunset

Good forecast there by Siobhan describing the situation as dangerous for south Munster and east Leinster. No wind speeds mentioned yet as nobody can call it yet.

Some slides she made describing as per website warning.

Planet X

Avox wrote: »

Hey guys! A major noob at weather here (like quite literally cannot oitell each picture from picture ) but I'm in Waterford and we're supposed to be having a party later this week.. anyone have any kind of indication as to whether we'll be hit by it?o We usually miss out on it all so I presume it'll be the same this time! Live about 20 minutes from the coast if that makes any difference!

Sure you'll be grand. You're in the Sunny South East as we're led to believe ad nauseum. :-)

Avox

Planet X wrote: »

Sure you'll be grand. You're in the Sunny South East as we're led to believe ad nauseum. :-)

Haha I'd really like a storm though, be cool to see! Since it's specifying "south" munster I presume it's gonna skip over us. haha

force eleven

MrFrisp wrote: »

NewsTalk radio just saying now that is could be as bad as Hurricane Charlie back in 1986.

Would that be right?





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They then played a snipped of a Met Eireann guy, saying it would be 'reminiscent of Hurricane Charley' but unlikely to be quite that bad.

All you have to do is mention the Charley word and the headline makers take it out of context. Still, it looks like being an eventful day tomorrow.

DominoDub

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE

maquiladora

MrFrisp wrote: »

NewsTalk radio just saying now that is could be as bad as Hurricane Charlie back in 1986.

Would that be right?





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I'd stick to listening to Met Eireann instead of Newstalk. Certainly wouldn't expect the same type of flooding risk as from that. I doubt the winds will be as strong either. There are some similarities though.

GSF

DominoDub wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE

Funny how the rest of that tapes has gone missing

maquiladora

It looks like it was Met Eireann that brought up the Charley similarities, so I can't blame Newstalk too much then ;p

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0814/weather.html

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/fresh-storm-could-be-as-bad-as-hurricane-charlie-562964.html

bloopy

What time will this storm be arriving at? Have to travel in the morning (0800 - 0930) in south KK on a backroad which crosses up and over a few hills.

Deep Easterly

Is anybody else having bother accessing the NAE charts on Weatheronline, just getting a blank in the map area on my screen at least.

Here is the BBC rainfall forecast (which also uses the NAE model) for later tonight and into tomorrow in 3 hr increments.



From http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

LizzyOne

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This is likely to become an explosive deepening situation. The models may not be catching the full severity of the storm because it will reach a lower central pressure on almost a meso-scale basis when the vortex interacts with the warm, humid air now present. I have worded the forecast more dramatically than may be heard elsewhere because I don't want Boards users to be caught unaware of what might be a very severe outcome especially in the south. As there is some uncertainty on track people should get frequent updates from midnight on ... we'll be watching very carefully here.

As I've stressed in other situations, central pressure is important but so is rate of pressure change. That will be unusually large for a summer season low and this storm may become similar to the gale that hit the southwest in January 2010. I think this was almost concurrent with the Haiti earthquake. Very strong winds and a continuous roaring sound were reported by several of our observers with that one. But now the trees are all in full leaf and that could greatly increase the potential for wind damage. Also we now have August sea surface temperatures and humidity levels which would increase the rainfall potential as well as the wind potential in similar energy regimes.

Although the track might make it appear that the west is most at risk, there will be impacts all around the country with the possible exception of sheltered parts of east Ulster.

Now, here's the over-under on predictable comments:

where is the storm, I don't see anything yet ... 0230h

this is coming in faster than anyone said it would ... 0630h

there goes the first trampoline ... 0822h

nobody said this was going to happen ... 0930h

wasn't it supposed to last all day? ... 1245h

as usual, nothing happened here ... 1530h

Despite that moment of levity, I hope that folks across Munster in particular are or will be prepared for a rather eventful day, things are looking rather ominous on the charts.

Great!!! Electricity knocked out here with last Monday's storm. Came back quick enough thanks to the esb guys on call. But now there's another and worse storm coming in ... Is there any sign at all of the weather settling down? Any blue skies, sunny days on the horizon?

maquiladora

12Z NAE brings it to 972 off the southwest coast at 24 hours.

Larbre34

Redsunset wrote: »

Good forecast there by Siobhan describing the situation as dangerous for south Munster and east Leinster. No wind speeds mentioned yet as nobody can call it yet.

Some slides she made describing as per website warning.

I realise the point of the thread is the pending serious weather, however the bad spelling in Met E TV forecasts drives me bonkers. Last night it was OCCCASIONAL showers, now we have the STONG gales to look forward to

If anyone in Met E is looking in, you do a fine job lads but would you ever hit spell check on your copy before you load it into your presenting package, it just lets the whole show down, and it seems to happen most nights with something

Thanks to all the regular posters for the updates, I for one wont be parking in my usual sea level carpark tomorrow, hope nobody is visited with too much hardship by this system

pauldry

tomorrow will be raining for 3 or 4 hours very heavy

it will be windy for a couple of hours then sunny and windy then showery and windy

thats all

back in june it rained for 36 hours in Sligo with 83mm.

we survived that

jimmynokia

Irish weather online have just posted this in twitter

http://t.co/AwOqYGoV

Iancar29

12z out .. Has the low shifting a bit further west... heres the peak for the east .

up for anything

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Now, here's the over-under on predictable comments:

where is the storm, I don't see anything yet ... 0230h

this is coming in faster than anyone said it would ... 0630h

there goes the first trampoline ... 0822h

nobody said this was going to happen ... 0930h

wasn't it supposed to last all day? ... 1245h

as usual, nothing happened here ... 1530h

This is the first thing today to bring a smile to my face. You have us all pegged.

maquiladora

Yeah GFS and NAE disagree on the track and intensity. HIRLAM will be interesting.

vickers209

AA Roadwatch have this warning up.

Met Eireann has issued a weather warning for later tonight and into tomorrow. High winds, heavy rainfall (30 to 50mm) and high tides will result in dangerous conditions in south Munster and east Leinster. There will be a high risk of coastal and river flooding. Motorists are advised to allow extra time for their journey and drive with extra caution.

http://www.aaireland.ie/aa/aa-roadwatch.aspx#

Redsunset

12Z Hiram at 4 pm showing peak mean wind speeds for south coast and offshore of 25-30 m/s which is 90-108 kph

Sponge Bob

Compare and Contrast the beautifully organised Belorussian Low with the disorganised mush to the left of the screen headed our way. Sat 24 Visible at 16z.

But hark, has ours just grown an eye? :eek:

niloc1951

I hope the ESB are letting some water out of the Lee reservoirs to make space for the incoming.
I was out that way a week and a half ago and they were at the highest I've seen for years.