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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012
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Nice Forecast by Dan on UKASF for 2moro
... I was gonna go for a squall line feature and then seen this ..
http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/216
Synopsis:
Broad upper trough will be located to the west of Britain, with various shortwaves running anticlockwise around the base. Beneath the trough, a deep surface low will be centred west of the Hebrides, with an associated occluded front moving erratically eastwards across the British Isles during the day. Convection is expected behind the front, primarily over Ireland.
Discussion:
A strong jet aloft will allow >50kts DLS, with the bulk of this (30-45kts) in the lowest km. As a result it is possible that, with ELTs only -10C or warmer, some low-topped line convection may occur on the back-edge of the front with the potential for a few bowing segments. Given the shallow nature of such convection, lightning activity is rather unlikely and is considered too low for a SLGT coverage level at this time.
In the wake of the front, cool mid-levels (-19/-20C at 500mb) will overspread Ireland, Northern Ireland and western Scotland, steepening lapse rates and generating 500-600J/kg CAPE. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely, more especially in the late afternoon and evening hours with the progression of a shortwave.
Given up to 70kts DLS/20kts LLS, showers/storms are likely to become well-organised into linear clusters, with the threat of backbuilding/shower training enhancing the risk of local flooding. Low LCLs (occasionally <600m) with sufficient LLS may allow a funnel or weak tornado to occur. Stronger cells may also produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.0 -
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what could happen later ian?
Probably a few cells popping up in the Midlands moving E NE some thundery... a nice squall line would be nice too as what does get going will be able to feed of the Decent Shear to last longer... very low LCLs ( cloud heights ) might produce some funnels ...
Id like to see some surface heating first though.. but ye... hopefully
EDIT... apparently a strike record just over at the phoenix park?!!... glitch perahaps ?.. i would've heard that clear as day surely!
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Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,764 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Join Date:Posts: 17538
Sat24, eldingar, and NW all got the single strike in the phoneix park:). Unless it was the races but I think they have finished.
I'd still think it was not lightning (but of course could have been?). You can occassionly get rogue sferics showing from arc welding or other sources of (large) electrical sparks (or a mis firing Honda 50!) or sometimes they can show up when there is a strong inversion causing refraction.
Usually lightning detectors should be looked at in conjunction with sat and radar but of course there is such a thing/phenomenon as a 'bolt out of the blue'!0 -
Sat24, eldingar, and NW all got the single strike in the phoneix park:).I'd still think it was not lightning (but of course could have been?). You can occassionly get rogue sferics showing from arc welding or other sources of (large) electrical sparks (or a mis firing Honda 50!) or sometimes they can show up when there is a strong inversion causing refraction.
Usually lightning detectors should be looked at in conjunction with sat and radar but of course there is such a thing/phenomenon as a 'bolt out of the blue'!
Ye true, i texted my cousin over on the opposite side of the park and she heard nothing either...
Anyways... current radar is looking nice imo , the cell in Limerick /Tipp should be sparking soon
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I'm just down after along a short flight out over Meath and Westmeath. Some of the views of the developing showers were breathtaking from the air and I shot some video which I will post later. I met that wall of black doom near Castlepollard and it was then that I reckoned yep, time to get back on the ground!!!
Look forward to seeing the video......think I might have heard you flying over a while ago 0 -
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »Incredible! Its quite pleasant where I am with the sun shining through the cirrus.
Wont be like that for very long...;)
Quietened down here, just amounted to a huge explosion like clap, and followed by a long rumble, and a lot of rain - hark there's another one as I type...!0 -
Elmer Blooker wrote: »Incredible! Its quite pleasant where I am with the sun shining through the cirrus.
Just took a look out the south side of the house, something fairly biblical looking only a few minutes away, black clouds with a low rolling front, would that be mammatus?
Either way, about to get very wet here in short order, will report the specifics
Edit: Distant rolling thunder and beginning of rain, 17450 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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