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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012
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I always just consider if theres gonna be lightning near me itll hit the Church right across the road with the lightning conductor on the top ha.
Tullamore about to get DRENCHED!
Btw 2moro is looking good for more gust front (linear) type storms 2moro!
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tylercollins wrote: »Can you explain this Ian?
Said charts + moisture ... = BOOOM!
:pac: :pac: :pac:
Id go with Estofex having a level 2 for ireland for 2moro , severe gusts at times, large hail and .. potential tornadoes down south.. 0 -
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NICK F , Net Weather
Posted 9 minutes ago
My forecast for Wednesday, pretty widespread risk of storms in post frontal airmass.
Valid: 25/08/2012 06:00 - 26/08/2012 06:00
Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...
Synopsis
Deep upper trough to W of the British Isles Tues night will begin to shift eastwards across the UK on Wednesday. Surface depression to W of Ireland will drift NE and expected to be centred close to the N coast of Ireland around 998mb by 12z Weds, while associated occluding cold front lies Whitby - Bournemouth with unstable post frontal airmass following with troughs in the flow moving east.
... ENGLAND, WALES, SCOTLAND and EIRE ...
Some potential exists for linear convection to develop with passage of occluding cold front which is indicated to be overlapped by fairly strong DL Shear (40-50knts) and low-level shear (15-20 knts) ... which suggests a strong wind gust threat and perhaps a tornado can't be ruled out. However, there is uncertainty over whether any strong/deep convection will occur - with GFS unkeen on the idea, so will not highlight a severe risk area.
Otherwise, post frontal airmass will be characterised by steep low-mid level lapse rates as colder mid-level air (at or below -20C) spreads in from the west with arrival of upper trough. Steep lapse rates, surface heating, large scale ascent and forced ascent near troughs will favour the development of widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms which will spread NE from fairly early on in the west across most areas by the afternoon following frontal rain pushing east. Overlap of strong jet stream across increasingly unstable post frontal airmass over England and Wales suggests storms could organise into bands - particularly near shortwave troughs moving in - with a risk of localised flooding from prolonged torrential downpours along with strong wind gusts and perhaps hail locally to 2cm or more in size with stronger storms.
Over Ireland, backing winds ahead of approaching surface low moving in close to the W/NW may enhance low-level shear with a tornado or two not ruled out with any stronger cells here
I NEED A CAR!!!!
ha
EDIT- more recent strikes just out west of Galway0 -
Only a level 1 from estofeckers :rolleyes:.... western UK ... <---
Beneath the western European trough, a rather deep surface low slowly moves towards western UK with a frontal system. At least marginal instability will be in place once the quite cold mid levels overspread the region. Some storms might form and enhance threat for some strong winds across Ireland given the quite strong wind field around the cyclone. A marginal level 1 has been issued to cover this potential threat.0 -
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