Possible Cold Reload

Min

The UK met are giving a rather normal week for Ireland on their country tracks forecast.

Steopo

I see SU mentions on the forecast thread that the cold is now originating over Lake Baikal in Siberia. Beautiful part of the world & I've fond memories of swimming in crystal clear water against a great backdrop - obviously not in Winter when the locals take the cars on the Lake for shortcuts to towns on the other side & other adventure activities

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVWd6aAyqVo

Who knows if some of those F1 charts came off we might all be drifting down the Liffey next week

Conrach

Just watched BBC farming forecast on Country Tracks. It is showing severe cold for the UK but not pushing into Ireland...Forecast was up until Saturday 4th. Coldest temp for Ireland was +3c on Saturday. Subzero temps for the UK from Wednesday. Not a great deal of snow mentioned.

Eastcoastryan

Weathercheck wrote: »

Models not as good this morning, but good overall.

The 6z GFS is a snowmageddon type run.

It is beginning to look like we aren't going to get those ultra -15c 850hpas but we still look good to get down to -8->-12c

At the moment the easterly flow never really makes it clean through, this is due to a shortwave that gets ejected from Iceland around T72, that nudges the block south.

Overall though you'd take the 6z run and its metre of snow.

Also the cold looks to come in MORE quickly. With temperatures on Tuesday just 3-4c for most, upto 8c on the west coast.

Still a wide wide array of solutions possible at T168hrs

Hey Weathercheck, you have been around these parts a long time, how (in your opinion) is this going to pan out for the East? It's funny 3 years ago, we'd be jumping around with joy after looking at the current models, I think we have got greedy after being spoilt the past couple of winters. Still, I think we might get a couple of snowy days out of this! Wouldn't it be great to see a forecast like this later this week!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc49oYbAIr4

LoadofCROC

Min wrote: »

The UK met are giving a rather normal week for Ireland on their country tracks forecast.

Something tells me they may be right!

ZX7R

kakee wrote: »

As far as I know snow fog occurs when the fog has so much moisture that some has fall, like rain. If conditions are right then this moisture will fall as snow

thanks kakee
hear is a web page, ski slope, pryemysl,web cam,some great web cams on there,see how they live in the east with snow:)

blackius

Min wrote: »

The UK met are giving a rather normal week for Ireland on their country tracks forecast.

2 points on that,they never forecast irish sea precip for the republic on that forecast unless by accident and 2. They have the east flow over Ireland all week.

So sorry to say min,it will be anything but normal next week.
Probably dry for you but ice days by the end of the week at least.

blackius

very good for cold and snow lovers in Ireland from the bbc country tracks forecast on bbc one just now.
It shows for the first time ukmo human input.
East flow over Ireland by tuesday and right through to the west to the end of the week with the atlantic trying but failing to break back.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

blackius wrote: »

very good for cold and snow lovers in Ireland from the bbc country tracks forecast on bbc one just now.
It shows for the first time ukmo human input.
East flow over Ireland by tuesday and right through to the west to the end of the week with the atlantic trying but failing to break back.

Excellent, good to have them onside.

Will be very interesting to see the coming FAX charts.

Anyone know what time the next ones are out ?

Musicman2000

blackius wrote: »

very good for cold and snow lovers in Ireland from the bbc country tracks forecast on bbc one just now.
It shows for the first time ukmo human input.
East flow over Ireland by tuesday and right through to the west to the end of the week with the atlantic trying but failing to break back.

Thanks blackius didnt catch it myself.

Madpaddy79

Conrach wrote: »

Just watched BBC farming forecast on Country Tracks. It is showing severe cold for the UK but not pushing into Ireland...Forecast was up until Saturday 4th. Coldest temp for Ireland was +3c on Saturday. Subzero temps for the UK from Wednesday. Not a great deal of snow mentioned.

We ( Ireland ) do not exist on BBC weather forecasts.

Musicman2000

If Gerry is presenting the Farming forecast dont be expecting much, and they will be going by this mornings ecm.

missrandomer

blackius wrote: »

So sorry to say min,it will be anything but normal next week.
Probably dry for you but ice days by the end of the week at least.

how do you think we will fair here in south east Blackius in your opinion, as theres alot of talk about north leinster, im just wondering what il be lik on the wicklow wexford border.

absolutley adore snow, but have horses so want to make sure im prepared.

Conrach

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

We ( Ireland ) do not exist on BBC weather forecasts.

Not normally but we were mentioned on this one. As Min also observed.

John.Icy

Still not excited about this. It's pushing it to call this an easterly, with ECM @ 72 the only encouraging chart in terms of creating any sort of beefy showers on the Irish sea. Most of the time we're in a barely there SE flow, and that's not what drives Irish sea snow trains. Just not enough sea track on an SE wind (East winds are slightly better, but Dublin is mostly blocked with the anglessey shadow, so at best you'd be looking at flurries making it ashore. A North East wind is much more favourable to drive beefier showers further inland, as seen in 2010). With fairly HP around, I doubt there'll be anything major in the way of disturbances moving in from our East (troughs and what not) giving a chance of more organised snowfall to the east of the country. And it looks like models are keen to try bring the atlantic back in some sort of way, for us anyway. Maybe it's a blessing in disguise getting stuck in no-mans land, as we'll be getting the colder uppers drifting slowly towards us, but also at the mercy of fronts coming in off the Atlantic, like today, but the uppers just arn't cold enough yet. So maybe we'll get lucky and end up with a major battleground scenario, but in terms of people hoping for some mega-showers and streamers pumping in off the Irish sea, I just can't see it atm. Probably flurries around, occasionaly heavier showers, but it just doens't look great tbh. Still early days and lot's of changing to come, and hopefully my thoughts will be proven wrong and we end up in a much more volatile E/NE flow with much more potential.

Gonna get chilly though

weisses

Spring has arrived .... bees are back ... Birds are nesting ...walking around in the sun in my T shirt ... :cool:

hotwhiskey

weisses wrote: »

Spring has arrived .... bees are back ... Birds are nesting ...walking around in the sun in my T shirt ... :cool:

Sorry you most be posting from Dingle Village in Australia welcome to Boards.ie:D

blackius

Conrach wrote: »

Not normally but we were mentioned on this one. As Min also observed.

look as regards the republic,the 26 county area nothing was mentioned on country tracks except pointing out the front in the west.
They only showed a few speckles of white in the east in nov dec 2010 and we all know what happened.
They don't pay attention to the irish sea's affect on a foreign country,the republic,why would they.
It's always been thus.

The important thing to note for us on country tracks or any bbc forecast in an easterly is the flow and where it's coming from and to take anything post 120hrs as suspect for now.
They showed an east flow over Ireland and no other details.
Thats all we needed to know because that flow will be brass monkey stuff.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that the atlantic will flow through after next weekend only to retreat back again after a few days ,who knows or take over altogether.
Lets see.

Trogdor

Country tracks forecast for people that missed it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egAp8XEMvuw

thomasj

weisses wrote: »

Spring has arrived .... bees are back ... Birds are nesting ...walking around in the sun in my T shirt ... :cool:

Given todays forecast you might resemble someone in a wet t-shirt competition by the end of the day

BEASTERLY

trogdor wrote: »

Country tracks forecast for people that missed it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egAp8XEMvuw

In my opinion that's a very poor forecast for us im afraid.

Quote:
Originally Posted by weisses
Spring has arrived .... bees are back ... Birds are nesting ...walking around in the sun in my T shirt ...


Given todays forecast you might resemble someone in a wet t-shirt competition by the end of the day

You'll be able to hang a wet duffle coat off your nipples it'll be so cold

weisses

thomasj wrote: »

Given today's forecast you might resemble someone in a wet t-shirt competition by the end of the day

Your probably right .... ( i doubt you want to see me dancing around in a wet t-shirt contest though ... will mess you up for life)

Amazing while it lasts ... Specially after all the feckin rain for the last couple of weeks here in the southwest

blackius

BEASTERLY wrote: »

In my opinion that's a very poor forecast for us im afraid.

please explain?
Easterly winds-check
front over west,no mention of it going east-check
max city temp in belfast 4c when the easterlys only been going 2 days -check

Why is that bad? I'll bet if you go back to jan 10 or feb 09,you'll also have temps in belfast and uk cities on bbc country tracks the sunday before like that.

precip is not being modeled much yet.

Uncertainty brings fudges,the important thing and I can't stress it enough is the wind flow in that video

up for anything

Locally heavy snowfalls could develop in that period together with sub-freezing temperatures. The probability is currently assessed at 65% for the east and north, but only 35% for west and south.

That is taken from MTC's forecast today. Just wondering where Kilkenny would fit into it? Do we just plus or minus 15% being southeast?

Musicman2000

Im afraid no one can give you that answer yet, Keep checking Mt's updates

BEASTERLY

blackius wrote: »

please explain?
Easterly winds-check
front over west,no mention of it going east-check
max city temp in belfast 4c when the easterlys only been going 2 days -check

Why is that bad? I'll bet if you go back to jan 10 or feb 09,you'll also have temps in belfast and uk cities on bbc country tracks the sunday before like that.

precip is not being modeled much yet.

Uncertainty brings fudges,the important thing and I can't stress it enough is the wind flow in that video

Cool and dry is what they forecast. Breaking down quickly from the west

Then again i just have a nervous disposition at this sort of time frame!!!

blackius

It's an unknown.
Pressures high you see which works against convection but the low 850 air passing over warm water aids convection.

Musicman2000

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Cool and dry is what they forecast. Breaking down quickly from the west

Then again i just have a nervous disposition at this sort of time frame!!!

Breaking down quickly from the west? In fairness beasterly she didnt say that, Its going to be cold and dry till the end of the week, after that who knows...

Iancar29

WOOO PREPARE FOR A SNOWY FORECAST!!!
EVELYN IS DOING THE FARMING FORECAST!!