Possible Cold Reload

Jimjay

rKossi wrote: »

Does anyone no if wicklow mts go much snow from todays rain or even the mourne mountains up north?.
Thinking of going up for a bit of skiing next week

Hi
I went up Sally gap from coast side and a far as kippure at 630am to take some photos. I didn't see any snow at all. it was slinging down rain, fogy patches and temperature ranged from 4 to 5 degrees.

mcriot29

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Im only doing these vids out till 144hr even at that I have prob gone into FI

ECM 12Z

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W84WhA7BPhE

GFS 12Z

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfKW9Sn8s-o

Looks like game over for us in ireland cold wise even vogan does not show cold for ireland

esposito

mike65 wrote: »

Looks like the cold freaks will be happy for 4 maybe 5 days at most, Sunday looks like being double figures (just) for many.

Not necessarily. There could well be an east/west coast divide by sunday. Don't know about double figures! Good chance the cold could re-establish itself around the 6th/7th too. Watch this space.

davidsr20

What does this mean for the west?

K_1

davidsr20 wrote: »

What does this mean for the west?

No real signs of anything cold for the west yet. A shift of a few hundred miles and ye could be in business though, especially if there turns out to be battleground snowfall.

kittyn

mcriot29 wrote: »

Looks like game over for us in ireland cold wise even vogan does not show cold for ireland

Can I ask what you are basing this on?

TURRICAN

davidsr20 wrote: »

What does this mean for the west?

means fun in the nissan;):D

mcriot29

kittyn wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Looks like game over for us in ireland cold wise even vogan does not show cold for ireland

Can I ask what you are basing this on?

All the models agree now cold does notmake it to ireland also nao supports this

pistolpetes11

mcriot29 wrote: »

All the models agree now cold does notmake it to ireland also nao supports this

The cold does make it , its breaks down after 120 hrs but it does get here .

What has you thinking it does not ?

Also the NAO is to do with Sea level pressure between Iceland down beyond Ireland.

Positive means there is more than likely a westerly flow , and the atlantic in full flow

Redsunset

NAO and AO are what the ensembles are showing.

They don't steer the weather

Eastcoastryan

mcriot29 wrote: »

Looks like game over for us in ireland cold wise even vogan does not show cold for ireland

Well personally, if Mark Vogan is saying No, then I think we have a chance. I've been following his forecasts for a few weeks and he has been way off the mark!

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
The ECM ENS mean is worse than the Det and brings in a milder SW'ly by Friday...looking at the ECM Clusters now.

kittyn

mcriot29 wrote: »

All the models agree now cold does notmake it to ireland also nao supports this

But you are basing this on one run? The models are flipping all the time at the moment and the trend so far is cold ...... Also the cold is with us till 120 anyway and then breaks down and IMO I can see this change again a few times.

Trogdor

mcriot29 wrote: »

All the models agree now cold does notmake it to ireland also nao supports this

Actually all models have cold reaching the east coast by Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday.

munsterlegend

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The cold does make it , its breaks down after 120 hrs but it does get here .

What has you thinking it does not ?

It's either feast or famine here..no half way house with every run taken as gospel! There have been so many changes since Thursday last there will certainly be changes again. As to whether the Atlantic will prevail by the weekend is by no means certain even for professional forecasters.

mcriot29

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

All the models agree now cold does notmake it to ireland also nao supports this

The cold does make it , its breaks down after 120 hrs but it does get here .

What has you thinking it does not ?

Also the NAO is to do with Sea level pressure between Iceland down beyond Ireland.

Positive means there is more than likely a westerly flow , and the atlantic in full flow

Yes i no that hence why i think vEry cold wont reach ireland as nao is far tohigh
No good having cold for a day be better not having at all esp when even stays very cold

pistolpetes11

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yes i no that hence why i think vEry cold wont reach ireland as nao is far tohigh
No good having cold for a day be better not having at all esp when even stays very cold

There is changes on every run of the models , your being gung ho with your analysis of the situation.

Just on the NAO



And well the AO is well negative



The glass is half full not half empty as you appear to be viewing it.

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Some interesting possibilities beyond 264hrs but none of the ECM ENS keep the block in place past Fri...turnaround poss but unlikely.

mcriot29

A friend of mine who lives in Swansea just told me its starting to snow quite hard there. Bit of hope there for us East Coast people .

its raining in Bristol.

shootie wrote: »

A friend of mine who lives in Swansea just told me its starting to snow quite hard there. Bit of hope there for us East Coast people .

Hey there sleet falling here now was rain and 6 c 2 hours ago now 3 c with sleet

mcriot29

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yes i no that hence why i think vEry cold wont reach ireland as nao is far tohigh
No good having cold for a day be better not having at all esp when even stays very cold

There is changes on every run of the models , your being gung ho with your analysis of the situation.

Just on the NAO



And well the AO is well negative



The glass is half full not half empty as you appear to be viewing it.

Ok so whats your views how long do u think it will stay very cold for what temps do u think east will see, on another note the rain here in dublin is now sleet temp has dropped 3 c in 2 hours here north dublin

Redsunset

Pistolpetes11
Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Some interesting possibilities beyond 264hrs but none of the ECM ENS keep the block in place past Fri...turnaround poss but unlikely.
=====================================================
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

:(:(

Ah well chins up we still got loads to look forward too. Plenty of cold to come,anything can happen,Could be Hugh breakdown snowfall from all this:D

pistolpetes11

mcriot29 wrote: »

Ok so whats your views how long do u think it will stay very cold for what temps do u think east will see, on another note the rain here in dublin is now sleet temp has dropped 3 c in 2 hours here north dublin

I dont know TBH , I think it will break on Friday / Saturday but it seems to reload after that .

I will make a firmer decision in the morning when I have seen most of the runs.

ninebeanrows

Temperature down to 4c in Dublin now.

Snow beginning to fall in Wales

thomasj

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Ok so whats your views how long do u think it will stay very cold for what temps do u think east will see, on another note the rain here in dublin is now sleet temp has dropped 3 c in 2 hours here north dublin

I dont know TBH , I think it will break on Friday / Saturday but it seems to reload after that .

I will make a firmer decision in the morning when I have seen most of the runs.

Evelyn will be on after the news, hopefully shell have some good news

Tom Cruises Left Nut

You can already see the easterly effect on the east coast of the UK

snow ghost

I suspect we could be in for the major snow event of the decade that nearly everyone wishes for.

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Looking at the glass "half full" & think of the winter as a whole if you like cold wx enjoy the wk ahead, enjoy the cold that WILL happen...

pistolpetes11

snow ghost wrote: »

I suspect we could be in for the major snow event of the decade that nearly everyone wishes for.

And thats based on ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Looking at the glass "half full" & think of the winter as a whole if you like cold wx enjoy the wk ahead, enjoy the cold that WILL happen...

Poor Matt, I can imagine hin there shaking with a half empty bottle of whiskey beside him !

snow ghost

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

And thats based on ?

I got chills they multiplying.