Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

davidsr20

oisingeogho wrote: »

It's been a long run of fairly mild weather, particularly for England and Wales with cold and snow this winter limited to Scotland in the main with just the occasional colder incursion further south. Is all that about to change though?

In the Winter forecast the outlook was for milder December with a change of pattern arriving during January bringing colder weather, and there are some indications that the changes are now beginning to occur.

Without getting too technical, it's all about the stratosphere and it's temperature - in summary a colder stratosphere means a stronger jetstream and more atlantic based weather for the UK, as we've seen in recent times. There are signs that the stratosphere is warming though, and that would increase the risk of some colder air making it's way toward the UK.

As ever with the weather though, this is far from a straight forward process so there are most definitely no guarantees of significant cold arriving any time soon, but it does seem likely that less mild weather will be arriving in 7-10 days time & beyond that we'll really need to keep a close eye on developments.

The forecasting models are giving some hints on the type of weather that could arrive in the latter part of their runs, but they're also chopping and changing with every update which gives some good clues as to just how uncertain the detail in the medium range outlook is.

We'll obviously be keeping you up to date throughout...

At shorter range, to start the upcoming week we'll be seeing a north, south split in place with some wet and windy weather affecting Scotland in particular during Monday. The wet weather fades the further south you head though with high pressure close by and it's likely that it's influence will spread north later in the week.

Temperature wise it'll be a fairly mild start to the week with no frosts likely until the second part of the week - watch too for some fog patches in places.

Basically u could have just said its a 50/50 chance of old weather :)and most of all the above has been already covered!

K_1

nilhg wrote: »

You'll notice that the article refers to Winter and Spring barley and Spring Oats, all (well not all but a lot) the Winter oats died of frostbite, the areas which had least snow were worst affected.

http://www.teagasc.ie/news/2011/201103-03.pdf

Around here there were Elder bushes killed in the hedges and even big clumps of Briars were burnt right back to the roots.

The problem here was that spring oat varieties were planted in autumn, as this was generally done and worked fine for years. Spring oat varieties are not very frost resistant. If winter oat varieties had been used, they most likely would have survived.

Irish Steve wrote: »

Ideally, we want snow rather than severe frost, my rhubarb is already showing signs of shooting, and frost will not do that any good at all. We also planted some new crowns from Lidl, if they get frosted, they will probably be killed as they are so tender at the moment.

If you could put straw on it (or dung and straw would be ideal) it should help protect it and also it will grow better later in the spring.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I very much look forward to seeing a post predicting an approximate week or fortnight away weather setup based on the antics of your local flora and fauna.

Indeed, let results be the judge, not the appearance of the player. I suspect the current crop of folk at the top of MT's forecast competition will now be left looking a bit....iffy :cool:

Wild Bill

Just seen the RTE weather - they have easterly winds across the country by Friday!

nilhg

K_1 wrote: »

The problem here was that spring oat varieties were planted in autumn, as this was generally done and worked fine for years. Spring oat varieties are not very frost resistant. If winter oat varieties had been used, they most likely would have survived.

Agreed, but that same variety Barra has been about since 1988 IIRC and last year was the first year it had any really significant problems during the winter. One year we had it at home here it was affected by a late severe frost in April and some of the developing heads were killed in the shoot, it did retiller and compensate.

Back on topic, it would seem to me that we are back around 2007, some promising signs in the models but always just out of the reliable timeframe, tantalising snow and cold lovers but never seeming to deliver.

I can't say I have a scientific explanation for my above theory but that's the feeling I'm getting.

Wild Bill

The farming community are really getting stuck in here!

I've tried to link the RTE forecast and searched the RTE site for "weather" and came up with nowt.

Anyone know

(1) do RTE post their TV forecasts
(2) if so, how do you find them

Wild Bill

Bah! Their website only runs the wind till Thursday night...it look like this. Anticyclonic surely - and then easterly?????

maquiladora

Wild Bill wrote: »

The farming community are really getting stuck in here!

I've tried to link the RTE forecast and searched the RTE site for "weather" and came up with nowt.

Anyone know

(1) do RTE post their TV forecasts
(2) if so, how do you find them

Go to RTE Player and search for the latest News once its uploaded. Weather will be at the end just like on TV.

bb1234567

Wild Bill wrote: »

Just seen the RTE weather - they have easterly winds across the country by Friday!

seriously???!!:eek:

ninebeanrows

RTE 9pm was probably using this mornings ECM data for its charts.

Which showed a light easterly feed. The 12z does not show this however.

Wild Bill

http://www.rte.ie/player/#l=7

Got it....the easterlies come on Sunday, not Friday

They moved it

http://www.rte.ie/player/#!v=1130030

TheMilkyPirate

Wild Bill wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/player/#l=7

Got it....the easterlies come on Sunday, not Friday

Unfortunately bill that's not the type of easterly we are looking for.

bb1234567

baraca wrote: »

Unfortunately bill that's not the type of easterly we are looking for.

Is it because europes not cold enough yet?

Wild Bill

baraca wrote: »

Unfortunately bill that's not the type of easterly we are looking for.

Wha! :eek:

Wrong type of snow?

maquiladora

Very poor 18Z GFS.

Hopefully more interesting 0Z's in the morning.

Harps

Haven't really followed the models for the past few days but very little to look at on tonight's offering, more depressing mist and rain all week, the models seem to be all over the place after that so no point reading much into anything after next Friday

Wild Bill

Harps wrote: »

Haven't really followed the models for the past few days but very little to look at on tonight's offering, more depressing mist and rain all week, the models seem to be all over the place after that so no point reading much into anything after next Friday

Well - there goes another faint bit of hope - puff!

And for a good 10 minutes there I was really excited :rolleyes:

pistolpetes11

Harps wrote: »

Haven't really followed the models for the past few days but very little to look at on tonight's offering, more depressing mist and rain all week, the models seem to be all over the place after that so no point reading much into anything after next Friday

This coming week never really had anything decent to offer it the middle to end of month that something could start to show up something special

Icanseethewind

Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

mike65

I've put a request in for the RTE Player to feature the Farming Forecast separately so we can all find it.

200motels

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

Interesting observations and I have to agree with you I've never known it to be so mild for this time of year. Roll on the summer.

davidsr20

200motels wrote: »

Interesting observations and I have to agree with you I've never known it to be so mild for this time of year. Roll on the summer.

Roll off to a summer tread so :rolleyes:

delw

200motels wrote: »

Interesting observations and I have to agree with you I've never known it to be so mild for this time of year. Roll on the summer.

what makes you think the summer will be mild/warm /nice/even summery
lets get through the rest of winter first,then why not try a bit of spring

Elmer Blooker

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

Good post. I couldn't agree with you more. The writing was on the wall weeks ago.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76156953

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Good post. I couldn't agree with you more. The writing was on the wall weeks ago.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76156953

You keep posting this , I shall look forward to quoting this after the first epic snowfall :pac::pac::pac:

Elmer Blooker

Why not post it? I'm 100% accurate.

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Why not post it? I'm 100% accurate.

Down of your high horse I was only jesting

Plus were only on the 9th day of Jan with the second half of the month to be cooler , although its been so mild of late that would not be too hard

weathermaiden

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

Is this a prediction you feel applies to all of Ireland, or are you mainly reading the signs in Mayo? I ask because we southeasties often complain about missing out on all the fun weather that the northwest has been getting of late (storms, wintry showers, etc), so could the same be true if an easterly is delivered? That Mayo will see nothing but the east might?

(Can't... quite.... reach the straws.....) :cool:

Lucreto

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

Those poor birds. They will be red faced when digging their nests out from under the snow.:D

I have not cut the grass since mid October and it still doesn't need a cut and I am in Naas. There is a tree near me that has crows nest each year no signs of tenets yet.

I don't take this studying nature too seriously as I have seen it fail so many times in the past.

My bird feeder needs to be refilled twice a week, normally it is once every two weeks but they are going through it like I observed late October or early November 2010. It that a sign of a cold winter?

What happens in Mayo doesn't represent the whole Island. In 2010 one side of Naas got a hail shower and the otherside had sunshine. Even our small nation has a varied weather pattern.

Sponge Bob

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign.

Would your experience tell you that the crows are predicting a lack of serious cold or a lack of atlantic storms to dislodge the nests.??

The grey back crow is a carrion crow, if they are the ones nesting could they not be predicting a bumper feast of dead lambs and the like....say in a Feb/March blizzard season?? I am not sure of their nesting habits but one of the local greybacks is often seen pulling surplus fur off an asses back when the ass moults in mid-late spring. I would think April.

On the other hand the black crow or rook normally lays its eggs around early March and would be expected to be nest building by mid february latest. Mid January would indeed seem early.