Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

maquiladora

18Z NAE is further south than 12Z NAE and 18Z GFS at 27 hours.

delw

Weathercheck wrote: »

Rapidly deepening and moving storm hitting Ireland at T30hrs on 18z GFS

Centre further north but more intense on this run.

Weathercheck wrote: »

Ummmmm Looks quite severe for some on the 18z

does this mean more intense wind & rain Weathercheck?

ninebeanrows

delw wrote: »

does this mean more intense wind & rain Weathercheck?

The rain will be intense at times also but the Wicklow Mountain shadow might come into play for a time for Dublin.

The combination will make it feel like a real storm.

Fortunately it looks like falling at night.

maquiladora

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z NAE is further south than 12Z NAE and 18Z GFS at 27 hours.

Yea the 18z looks about 80 miles further southeast at T30hrs and 6mb weaker.

ninebeanrows

Yep MAQ looks ominous.

Harps

More impressive on the 18z all right, looking increasingly like a nowcast situation though for exact track and intensity, subtle changes making quite a difference to severity on each run

ninebeanrows

So what do we take from this.

The track is still somewhat uncertain although 18z GFS and 18z NAE seem very similar in track within 50 miles of each other.

We can expect around 6-9 hours of intense winds hitting the west coast tomorrow from around 9pm advancing to east coast by 12am, clearing the west coast by around 5am and the east coast by around 8am. The peak winds, it will remain windy thereafter.

Widespread wind gusts to 60KTs (110 km/hr) and above. Exposed places gusting as high as 75KT (140 km/hr).

Important t note this will be combined with very heavy rain although as the system is moving so fast it will clear quickly, around 20-30mm of rain expected.

Also a low risk of some higher gusts if a stingjet forms on the soutwest of the low centre, within this area gusts could get to 80/85KT (155 km/hr) but this will not be known until the system has formed and remains very uncertain.

redsteveireland

Deep Easterly wrote: »

In other news, thunderstorm off the west coast at the moment. It will of course die out before it reaches here.

If I could put money on it I'd put everything!:(

maquiladora

I'll post some samples from the hi-res NMM once its out in a few mins.

It's been an interesting one to follow so far, even if it doesn't turn out to be too severe.

Edit :



On this model, the strongerst winds are along the southwest/south coasts, up to 80mph. 70-75mph gusts inland in west/south areas. 60-70mph gusts everywhere else.

ninebeanrows

Hirlam keeps with its slightly north track but as a really tight gradient around its centre which would bring some very big damaging gusts to the north and northwest

Deep Easterly

redsteveireland wrote: »

If I could put money on it I'd put everything!:(

I was told there was thunder here late last night but never heard it myself.

Su Campu

Higher res aemet hirlam image, showing a hoor of a gradient off the northwest coast.

maquiladora

Looks like its down to 944mb there.

seanknowsall

I have just read the latest on ME site and they have completely ommitted any mention of a storm.... very breezy and gusty is their take on things.... seems very odd as this storm surely is a nowcast situation

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sky News forecast on tv just there was "Apparently becoming quite stormy over most of Ireland"

ninebeanrows

seanknowsall wrote: »

I have just read the latest on ME site and they have completely ommitted any mention of a storm.... very breezy and gusty is their take on things.... seems very odd as this storm surely is a nowcast situation

Just seen it. Although i think they are deliberately trying not to go into too much detail on it until the morning, it is careless and in my opinion quite disgraceful.

maquiladora

Yep, it's interesting alright. The only mention of it is:

Cold and windy tomorrow

I've seen wind warnings for a lot less before so I presume its just because they are waiting a bit longer to see how it develops.

whataboutnow

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just seen it. Although i think they are deliberately trying not to go into too much detail on it until the morning, it is careless and in my opinion quite disgraceful.

Yeah,it's a disgrace.hope no one is caught out because of their complacency and to be honest i don't Siobhan has a notion about the weather,probably one of the media graduates who opted to do that in Rte

Min

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just seen it. Although i think they are deliberately trying not to go into too much detail on it until the morning, it is careless and in my opinion quite disgraceful.

That is what they did for the destructive Christmas eve storm, warned of a storms days before it, then backed off and the rest is history.

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like its down to 944mb there.

I make it 954.

John.Icy

It's strange alright, but a bit expected. I'm sure ME are always treading on thin ice with warnings these days, to avoid further uproar against them.

But yes, a warning should be out for severe weather, reguardless of what may or may not happen.

Min

whataboutnow wrote: »

Yeah,it's a disgrace.hope no one is caught out because of their complacency and to be honest i don't Siobhan has a notion about the weather,probably one of the media graduates who opted to do that in Rte

Siobhan Ryan is a professional meteorologist.

maquiladora

Whats up with the difference between the 23h and 00h updates?

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2012010200&lang=en&map=AtlN

Looks like some kind of error.

Storm 10

Not a mention of a storm on the recent update on their website

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

Whats up with the difference between the 23h and 00h updates?

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2012010200&lang=en&map=AtlN

Looks like some kind of error.

The 00Z has a lot more data, and therefore is a lot more accurate.

EDIT: Oops, I see what you you mean. I would say it will rectify itself soon.

ninebeanrows

Storm 10 wrote: »

Not a mention of a storm on the recent update on their website

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

It will be changed soon i assume, probably waiting till the 5am update.

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

The 00Z has a lot more data, and therefore is a lot more accurate.

It's further west than on the 18Z update though?

Edit : Nevermind, just saw your edit.

elainesnuffles

maquiladora wrote: »

Su Campu wrote: »

The 00Z has a lot more data, and therefore is a lot more accurate.

It's further west than on the 18Z update though?

Edit : Nevermind, just saw your edit.

Wind is starting to rise in cork city

spiderman1885

To be honest, I think Siobhan's delivery of late has been flawless aside from a few inaccurate meteorological references. She does not warrant criticism for this.

I'm boarding up the windows tomorrow anyway, my friend knows loads about the moon and weather and he told me it is going to go crazy.

Stay safe, stay dry, stay happy.