Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

sunbabe08

elainesnuffles wrote: »

Wind is starting to rise in cork city

i thought i was hearing things, wasn't expecting that

up for anything

I missed this thread. I thought it was a hangover from last week.

What sort of storm are you talking about? Over all of Ireland or only parts?

delw

up for anything wrote: »

I missed this thread. I thought it was a hangover from last week.

What sort of storm are you talking about? Over all of Ireland or only parts?

at the moment with current charts it seems to be a country wide event but im no expert so im sure others will but you right if im wrong

Su Campu

Here are Met Eireann's max TAF wind forecasts (knots) up to midnight tomorrow only, so just before peak winds.

DUBLIN 24 gust 37
SHANNON 27 gust 45
CORK 35 gust 45
KNOCK 27 gust 43.

Belfast Aldergrove, issued by the UKMO, has just 18 gust 29.

maquiladora

23:45 :

maquiladora

Latest FAX, 18Z tomorrow :

whataboutnow

does anyone think this storm will produce the highest winds of this winter or a similar event to that already seen in malin head just further south this time?

K-9

whataboutnow wrote: »

does anyone think this storm will produce the highest winds of this winter or a similar event to that already seen in malin head just further south this time?

A storm like that countrywide would be seen as very significant, would cause power outages countrywide and be a nationwide event, a 6 and 9 O'Clock major news story.

Up here, it's pretty normal and pretty unremarkable other than yet another wind. Context and perspective. Up here, pretty normal, country wide, an event to remember.

maquiladora

14m waves.

whataboutnow

K-9 wrote: »

A storm like that countrywide would be seen as very significant, would cause power outages countrywide and be a nationwide event, a 6 and 9 O'Clock major news story.

Up here, it's pretty normal and pretty unremarkable other than yet another wind. Context and perspective. Up here, pretty normal, country wide, an event to remember.

yea true but i heard there are similarities between this storm and the 26-12-98 storm but i can't see it getting that bad..how bad do u reckon the gusts will be in eastern inland donegal

maquiladora

whataboutnow wrote: »

yea true but i heard there are similarities between this storm and the 26-12-98 storm but i can't see it getting that bad..how bad do u reckon the gusts will be in eastern inland donegal

I'd say you've probably already had stronger winds this winter there than you'll have from this.

There is still uncertainty with the strength/track but I wouldnt expect anything as strong as 98 at all.

Pangea

K-9 wrote: »

Up here, it's pretty normal and pretty unremarkable other than yet another wind. Context and perspective. Up here, pretty normal, country wide, an event to remember.

aye, from the top of my head i would say we have had 5 or 6 storms in the past 2 months with 130-140km gusts and that's no exaggeration.
A stormy winter to say the least.

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd say you've probably already had stronger winds this winter there than you'll have from this.

There is still uncertainty with the strength/track but I wouldnt expect anything as strong as 98 at all.

you wont even get your 97 repeat on this one Maq or will you?

mickyfitzy2

hope this is not a strong one! I remember storm on 8th Jan '08 that removed 60 tiles from my roof scary S**t! dont like the wind!

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

you wont even get your 97 repeat on this one Maq or will you?

Nope, not even close to 97 unless it turns out very different to what the models are showing.

mickyfitzy2

Actually think it was 9th Jan, gust of 91 knts at Malin head, 15 miles from me recorded on the night! strongest for a long time, damaging gusts dont think anyone wants that!

maquiladora

mickyfitzy2 wrote: »

Actually think it was 9th Jan, gust of 91 knts at Malin head, 15 miles from me recorded on the night! strongest for a long time, damaging gusts dont think anyone wants that!

5th/6th?

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Jan1991_storm.PDF

mickyfitzy2

maquiladora, definitely 8/9th Jan '08 new house almost needed new roof check out met eireann records.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Nope, not even close to 97 unless it turns out very different to what the models are showing.

But how is this less severe if you compare archived charts with those predicted? It probably looks more severe this one than the 1997 one although this is obviously coming at a different angle and different track.

I think this storm is being majorly underestimated by media amd the met and it could be a big mistake.

maquiladora

mickyfitzy2 wrote: »

maquiladora, definitely 8/9th Jan '08 new house almost needed new roof check out met eireann records.

Oh sorry I thought you said 1991, misread.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

But how is this less severe if you compare archived charts with those predicted? It probably looks more severe this one than the 1997 one although this is obviously coming at a different angle and different track.

I think this storm is being majorly underestimated by media amd the met and it could be a big mistake.

I know what you mean about how the 97 storm looks on the archive, it doesn't look that dramatic. I'm just comparing the GFS/NMM gust charts, which I find to be accurate to within about 5mph or so usually, to what happened in 97.

Max gusts on the charts I looked at for tomorrow night look like 80mph on the coast and 75mph in land in places.

That seems about about 20mph less than the max gusts recorded in 97.

Thats just the way I'm working it out in my head.

Pangea

Heres Met Eireanns detailed forecast on the storm tomorrow:

windy tomorrow

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

ninebeanrows

Pangea wrote: »

Heres Met Eireanns detailed forecast on the storm tomorrow:

windy tomorrow

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

I am not often critical of Met in recent times but that really is nothing other than pathetic.

Danno

Well, firstly that update from ME is posted after 11pm, most people are not looking up weather websites at this hour leading into a Bank Holiday. Secondly, this storm is a loose cannon and could easily avoid us still, so no need to be spreading panic to the masses just yet...

delw

Danno wrote: »

Well, firstly that update from ME is posted after 11pm, most people are not looking up weather websites at this hour leading into a Bank Holiday. Secondly, this storm is a loose cannon and could easily avoid us still, so no need to be spreading panic to the masses just yet...

is it really going to go that far north or south at this stage to miss Ireland altogether,ME couldn't do any harm issuing a "possible warning"

4Sheets

delw wrote: »

is it really going to go that far north or south at this stage to miss Ireland altogether,ME couldn't do any harm issuing a "possible warning"

Surely it does not matter what time the forecast is posted at?
It just seems a crazy forecast given the discussion here today..surely the models cannot be so wrong as to push this storm so far north or south we dont even get a band of rain crossing the country?
Oh wait a minute they dont discuss Monday nite at all..i was reading tuesday night

M.T. Cranium

GEM regional is out to 24h and shows the low at 968 mbs near the M6 buoy (would say 54N 15W which is on the border of this regional model grid) -- this represents an upgrade and based on current upper air and satellite presentation, I will go to the high end of the range of wind speeds that have been mentioned in previous alerts ... will update unusually early and perhaps this will nudge the official forecasts towards a timely warning, perhaps not ... but I agree this seems under-predicted on the website forecast at least, of course you're seeing the TV forecasts and hearing the radio forecasts ... can understand the caution but this is so explosive with the colder air ahead, I feel there is bound to be at least moderate damage in some places. Check out my alert in about 15 minutes and let me know what you're thinking, I have time to revise when I see the GFS and UKMO, but the GEM regional is usually super-good on North Atlantic development.

maquiladora

Interesting update MT. GFS is coming out now in a few mins so should be interesting to see if there are any changes there. 0Z NAE is late for some reason.

maquiladora

0Z GFS is weaker so far on this run.

Edit : Slightly further south, about 5mb weaker, max gusts about 5mph weaker on this run.

0Z NAE hasn't come out.

maquiladora

0Z NAE is out and is closer to what MT said the regional GEM is showing.