Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Deep Easterly

ECMWF 12z keeping the same track it seems but based on 24hr forecast chart only.


RTE 1 forecast coming up now.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECMWF 12z keeping the same track it seems but based on 24hr forecast chart only.

Yep its the same on WeatherUnderground.

Birdnuts

I'm confused - the latest GFS has stronger winds for the East on Wednesday morning then what is due on Tuesday, surely some mistake

maquiladora

Good forecast on TV there. They are going for 100-150 km/h gusts (same as thread title). Storm force off the southwest to north coasts. Gale force elsewhere.

Harps

ECMWF, 50-60kt off Donegal

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

ECMWF, 50-60kt off Donegal

Yep that purple area would be the violent storm force winds. Wouldn't take much of a shift south to put those winds on the coast, but these things usually shift further north if anything.

maquiladora

M6 buoy : http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=62095&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

M6 buoy : http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=62095&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

thats a tasty pressure drop

Villain

Met Eireann TV Forecast warned of Gusts up to 150 km/h, I haved posted on http://www.iwo.ie/2012/01/02/severe-weather-warning/ the latest update from IWN forecaster

jirafa

Weather warnings: Connacht
valid from 03.01.2012 00:00 CET Until 03.01.2012 12:00 CET
Wind Awareness Level: Orange
"Very strong winds with severe and possibly damaging gusts of 100-140 km/hr, highest near the coast.


Weather warnings: Leinster
valid from 03.01.2012 00:00 CET Until 03.01.2012 23:59 CET
Wind Awareness Level: Yellow
"Very strong winds with gusts of 80-110 km/hr, highest near the coast."


Weather warnings: Munster
valid from 03.01.2012 00:00 CET Until 03.01.2012 12:00 CET
Wind Awareness Level: Orange
"Very strong winds with severe and possibly damaging gusts of 100-140 km/hr, highest near the coast."


Weather warnings: Ulster_Cavan-Monaghan
valid from 03.01.2012 00:00 CET Until 03.01.2012 23:59 CET
Wind Awareness Level: Yellow
"Very strong winds with gusts of 80-110 km/hr, highest near the coast."


Weather warnings: Ulster_Donegal
valid from 03.01.2012 00:00 CET Until 03.01.2012 12:00 CET
Wind Awareness Level: Orange
"Very strong winds with severe and possibly damaging gusts of 100-140 km/hr, highest near the coast."

maquiladora

Just noticed Donegal just went red on Meteoalarm.

Red:
The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Just noticed Donegal just went red on Meteoalarm.

Leinster went from yellow to Orange?

But anyway MeteoAlarm is just given its info from MetEireann i think.

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

Just noticed Donegal just went red on Meteoalarm.

Bloody hell, they dont mince their words,:eek:

Sponge Bob

Only red bit in all of Europe

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

We also have a Level 1 Estofex

http://www.estofex.org/

ninebeanrows

Station 62095 - M6 - has dropped 9mb in 2 hours :eek:

Simon Gruber Says

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Only red bit in all of Europe

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

It's not that often that it's warranted. Been a while since that last time I saw a red patch on Ireland

Sponge Bob

You can watch Bouy M6 in real time here , the green line is the key.

If it goes below 980 by 9pm before it starts to rise anyway as the system core passes away NE that means it is more powerful and if it stays where it is at around 985 then it is not deepening beyond already predicted ranges....eg 12z GFS

Pangea

I wonder why meteoalram don't issue warnings for NI or Scotland on that european map.

Harps

We had a red alert for two storms in December as well, quite common when a storm tracks off the north coast

andrew

In case anyone is wondering where the m6 buoy is (I know I was at least)

maquiladora

Meteoalarm is part of EUMETNET of which Met Eireann is a participating member. So it's not like those unofficial warnings you see on private websites like Metcheck and Netweather.

Just in case people haven't seen Meteoalarm mentioned before.

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

I wonder why meteoalram don't issue warnings for NI or Scotland on that european map.

I think it's done by the individual meteorological services from each country.

cotton

Eeerily calm & quiet in greystones this evening. All the birds have disappeared apart from dozens of seagulls that have come in over land & are circling the fields behind the house. :eek:

4Sheets

http://www.rte.ie/news/

Rte still warning of icy roads:) perfect timing for this storm..no real warnings prob because everyone is off today...if this turns out to be severe I reckon the media will come under some pressure for lack of timely warning.

Sponge Bob

The Main M6 Page is here http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/buoys/observations.htm#M6

The main M4 page ( near Donegal) is here http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/buoys/observations.htm#M4

Pressure at M4 was steady between 992 and 994 from 10AM to 7PM, that will change shortly....and dramatically.

ninebeanrows

M6 down another 4mb at 8pm

to 981.4 mb

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -13.4 mb ( Falling Rapidly )

JanuarySnowstor

I think it sums up how bland a few weeks we've had to see this storm being followed which such interest.
Its average at best

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I think it sums up how bland a few weeks we've had to see this storm being followed which such interest.
Its average at best

Famous last words!?

For what its worth, hate to drag MTCs name into this

But he is going for gusts of Stephen's Day Storm 1998 level in the prediction thread.

maquiladora

Starting to wrap up nicely on Sat24 now.

Surface analysis for 8pm had it at 984mb, M6 reported 981mb at the same time and the chances are thats probably not directly in the center so I guess its probably about 5mb deeper than expected at the moment?

Knine

Weathercheck wrote: »

M6 down another 4mb at 8pm

to 981.4 mb

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -13.4 mb ( Falling Rapidly )

Might be a stupid question but what does that mean?:o

Also Its fairly quiet in Dublin's northside, just wondering when we can expect things to kick off?