Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

Strongest winds forcast in the 11am TAFs, valid until midday Tuesday.

DUBLIN 25 gust 45 kts (from 7am tomorrow)
SHANNON 25 gust 50 kts (from 6am tomorrow)
CORK 25 gust 50 kts (from midnight to 2am)
KNOCK 30 gust 50 kts (from 6am tomorrow)
BELFAST ALDERGROVE 35 gust 55 kts (from 2-5 am tomorrow)

I still say say what I said from day 1, this will turn more to the north and won't be as strong as forecast.

I love the Cork Forecast, 50KT, why do they always underestimate winds, i would place a large wager that a gust well above 50KT will be recorded at Cork Airport.

jirafa

Forecast for Cobh Co.Cork.



Link ........... http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Ireland/Cork/Cobh.aspx

sunbabe08

Weathercheck wrote: »

I love the Cork Forecast, 50KT, why do they always underestimate winds, i would place a large wager that a gust well above 50KT will be recorded at Cork Airport.

i agree

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

The winds may not be as strong as yesterdays models but Gusts of 60kts to 70kts are strong and not to be messed with. I'm wondering why its being played down by RTE/Met Eireann

I dunno if they are playing it down that much. The warning is for damaging gusts up to 140 km/h and that seems in line with the max gusts the models they use are showing. Maybe it was just the way it was presented on TV? Probably will be a better forecast after the Six News.

maquiladora

Yellow and Orange warnings on Meteoalarm.

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index2.php?country=IE&day=1&lang=

Yellow:
The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.

Orange:
The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.

Deep Easterly

Maybe one reason they (ME) are not overly ramping this up is that the worst of the winds are forecast to occur when most people will be asleep? Although their shipping forecast does contain warnings for storm force winds. I'd say their main web forecasts and TV broadcasts are aimed more at the general public rather than for groups who heavily rely on weather forecasts such as those who are in shipping. aviation etc. A theory anyways.

sunbabe08

still they should warn people, so people can prepare and batten down the hatches and decorations

ninebeanrows

Poor sat pic but this thing is moving so fast it should be in view of Sat24 by 18z

Its on 30W

Its a large baroclinic leaf and is getting ready for lift off!

ninebeanrows

It is actually visible on Sat24 and it is moving so fast, has no visible structure at the moment.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

eskimocat

I can understand that they don't want to panic anyone needlessly however it is a good idea to allow people an opportunities to prepare in daylight hours. Beats stumbling about in the dark looking for torches and candles if the power happens to go! Also to tie down the garden furniture... not to repeat the horrific scenes of plastic garden chairs knocked down in their prime! :pac:

Deep Easterly

sunbabe08 wrote: »

still they should warn people, so people can prepare and batten down the hatches and decorations

As has been pointed out by Maq already they warning people Sunbabe

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

I didn't see the tv forecast earlier but if the word 'stormy' was used in the forecast, then surely that would in itself prepare people to expect stormy weather? I dunno, I am lost..

eskimocat wrote: »

not to repeat the horrific scenes of plastic garden chairs knocked down in their prime!

A fair point!

irish1967

Hmm. I'm working a 6pm-3am shift today. My usual 25min walk could be interesting at 3am. Crash helmet or wooly cap? Working right on the coast (20ft from waters edge) so I'll try and post a few times throughout the night.

My major worry with this spell of breezy Donegal weather tonight is the wind direction. It will be pushing trees etc against their normal bend direction. SNAP !

We'll see how it goes

Its a large baroclinic leaf and is getting ready for lift off!

I havent heard that term before, baroclinic leaf, would you mind explaining it a little bit

pardon my ignorance.

ninebeanrows

Jake1 wrote: »

Its a large baroclinic leaf and is getting ready for lift off!

I havent heard that term before, baroclinic leaf, would you mind explaining it a little bit

pardon my ignorance.

A google zip, more information on a search.

Baroclinic leaf

An elongated cloud pattern formed within the jet stream zone associated with marked baroclinicity (i.e. strong thermal contrast). The boundary (in satellite imagery) on the polar air-mass side of the development is well defined, and has the look of a 'stretched-out' "S" shape. The downstream/warm air-mass edge is less distinct. This feature represents the initial (or frontogenetic) stage of a system development, certainly in the mid-troposphere, and often (but not always) at the surface. Not all baroclinic leaves lead to marked cyclogenesis although they will be the first stage of such. (See also Dry Intrusion).

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

A google zip, more information on a search.

yeah, I was just doing that. Thanks.

cherryghost

Massive flock of Seagulls have just made their way into Athlone from Galway now. Must be at least 300 of them piled right outside my door!

irish1967

Haven't seen or heard a bird here all day and my garden is usually a hive of birdy activity.

maquiladora

12Z GME has the low about 5mb deeper. Position looks about the same?

Redsunset

NMM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model)



Still doesn't look all that menacing.
I do remember a wind event last year though that did not look as severe on pressure maps and MT pointed out that the forward motion emphasised the winds so might be something in it.

irish1967

Do my eyes deceive me or is that a smiley face over Donegal.

To Alcohol

irish1967 wrote: »

Haven't seen or heard a bird here all day and my garden is usually a hive of birdy activity.

0209_pnmy.gif

maquiladora

redsunset wrote: »

NMM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model)



Still doesn't look all that menacing.
I do remember a wind event last year though that did not look as severe on pressure maps and MT pointed out that the forward motion emphasised the winds so might be something in it.

Here is a look at the 06Z run of the NMM for you (1mb).

Down to 964mb off Donegal. I'll post the 12Z is about an hour.

maquiladora

12Z NAE is slightly weaker and a few miles further north.

Deep Easterly

A spectacular drop of 1.0 hPa in central pressure of the system between 06z and 12z:

http://bethyngalw.nowster.me.uk/charts/PPVA8912.TIF

Though beginning to accelerate east-northeastwards.

maquiladora

Quite a shift north in latest track since this morning from the NWS!

ninebeanrows

NAE position of storm at 3AM

maquiladora

Latest Met Eireann forecast has removed mention of 140km/h gusts (warning hasnt been changed yet) and instead says :

Some severe gusts of over 100km/h are expected also.

sunbabe08

irish1967 wrote: »

Do my eyes deceive me or is that a smiley face over Donegal.

which is makes me more convince that this storm is actually gonna be a big one

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Quite a shift north in latest track since this morning from the NWS!

Seems more in line with what the HIRLAM have been showing for the last few runs. EMHI maintaining same path on its 12z run.

Harps

Still looking like quite a typical storm to my untrained eye, stronger than usual for the rest of the country but I'm not expecting anything particularly out of the ordinary for around here