Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Redsunset

Here she is ,the (LEAF)

ninebeanrows

Also worth to consider the trough or second little centre that follows into the northwest towards tomorrow afternoon that could really tighten the gradient and give a second bout of high winds.

maquiladora

12Z GFS looks pretty much same as the 06Z, no late surprises there.

Max gusts touching 75mph on coasts, 55-70mph gusts inland.

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

Also worth to consider the trough or second little centre that follows into the northwest towards tomorrow afternoon that could really tighten the gradient and give a second bout of high winds.

And the Austrian Met have labelled it a polar low at midday today, just southeast of Greenland. It shouldn't be much when it arrives here though.

Deep Easterly

That little trough is actually forecast by the GFS at least to bring even stronger winds to parts of the NW coast that what they are showing during the main event but only for a short period:



although other models seem to be backing away from it bringing anything that much. Worth keeping a look out for all the same.

maquiladora

The Met Eireann warning has been updated even though the update time still says 07:00

Issued at 02 January 2012 - 07:00
Weather Warning - Stormy Conditions
Stormy conditions are expected for tonight and for Tuesday.
Gale force south to southerly winds will develop tonight and veer southwesterly with gusts of 100 to 120 km/h at times, strongest in coastal areas of the southwest, west and north. Some heavy driving rain for a time too.
Gale force southwest to west winds during Tuesday with gusts of 100 km/h in many places, but some damaging gusts of between 120 and 140 km/h., are likely in exposed coastal and hilly areas of the Northwest and North, where showers will turn wintry in places also.

Valid 0000 Tues to 1200 Tues.

12Z UKMO is a bit further north, same intensity.

spiderman1885

The birds in my avary have manged to prise open the avary door, and are currently en route to safety. I tried catching them with my net, but no luck. Alas, this storm had better not break my home now, seeing as it has already broken my heart.

sunbabe08

spiderman1885 wrote: »

The birds in my avary have manged to prise open the avary door, and are currently en route to safety. I tried catching them with my net, but no luck. Alas, this storm had better not break my home now, seeing as it has already broken my heart.

my sympathy

To Alcohol

Can we say for almost certain now this is going to be an average run of the mill winter storm with nothing exceptional and no structural damage to be expected?

What are the maximum speeds we can now expect?

Sponge Bob

We can't with these 'bomb cyclone' type storms. Revisions will be made up to the 1800z forecasts ( issues 9pm ish)

To Alcohol

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We can't with these 'bomb cyclone' type storms. Revisions will be made up to the 1800z forecasts ( issues 9pm ish)

Thanks Sponge Bob. I'll keep an eye on the thread for updates from this time on.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Is the "blob" visible on sat24 at the moment expected to turn into this ?

Sponge Bob

To Alcohol wrote: »

Thanks Sponge Bob. I'll keep an eye on the thread for updates from this time on.

If you look at the third of the January 1974 storms which impacted the same area as tonights storm you will see how difficult it can be. We are talking about an event which though only 8 hours away as we write _can_ develop with remarkable speed.

On the 27th of January 1974 it was beginning to possibly form at 985hpa at 1200 Hours (we do not have sufficient data from that era to say whether it was an absolute given it would form and develop at that moment. Models are pretty impressive nowadays )

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=1&day=27&year=1974&map=0&hour=12

12 Hours later it had formed and deepened to 965hpa in 12 hours.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=1&day=28&year=1974&map=0&hour=0

12 hours later again it was battering the Northwest and a gust of 96KT was recorded in Claremorris. Now down to 960hpa

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=1&day=28&year=1974&map=0&hour=12

Total deepening in that 24 hour period was 985-960 and that matched the 24 units in 24 hours drop which is part of the 'bomb' cyclone definition.

maquiladora

Slightly stronger on the 12Z NMM. About a 5mph increase in max gusts.

12Z HIRLAM looks slightly further south but hardly work mentioning.

Nowcast at this stage I suppose.

sunbabe08

just looking at sat24, that storm looks to be heading more east than north east

snaps

sunbabe08 wrote: »

just looking at sat24, that storm looks to be heading more east than north east

It certainly looks that way? We will have to see what the experts say on this. If it is heading straight overhead, would this mean much reduced wind speeds, due to the eye of the storm?

maquiladora

sunbabe08 wrote: »

just looking at sat24, that storm looks to be heading more east than north east

It can just look that way sometimes due to the angle.

Seems to be on course based on the surface analyses.

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2012010217&lang=en&map=AtlN

ninebeanrows

It does seem possible that a sting jet could develop on the southwest of the low as it rapidly develops and pushes into Scotland.

Areas at risk for this would be Mayo/ Donegal and into NI.

This is where 80-90KT winds could reach the surface.

TURRICAN

Can anybody shed some light on the possibility of thunderstorms with this event tonight?

ninebeanrows

The centre of the now rapidly developing low is beginning to now become visible and is as forecast if perhaps a little bit further north?

Hard to judge but it can now just be seen on the last two frames.

Sponge Bob

TURRICAN wrote: »

Can anybody shed some light on the possibility of thunderstorms with this event tonight?

Quiet enough for thunderstorms so far. The best way to see is to watch the Icelandic Met Website

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html

Deep Easterly

TURRICAN wrote: »

Can anybody shed some light on the possibility of thunderstorms with this event tonight?

Risk is low but best chance for any thunderstorms tonight would occur along the cold front that is expected to cross much later. Risk of seeing any thunderstorms may increase tomorrow morning into the afternoon as showers bear down from the NW, and more especially for the NW.

Everything from here on will be 'nowcasting' so any changes to the above, you'll hear it hear first.

snaps

Rains on the verge of hitting Cork & Kerry now.

ninebeanrows

If i was in Donegal or generally in the northwest and north i would be expecting some damaging wind gusts overnight. So hopefully preparations have been taken.

This will be rapidly developing overhead.

eskimocat

All loose objects tied down and fresh batteries in the torch... bring it!

TURRICAN

@ sponge bob and deep easterly,cheers.

sunbabe08

snaps wrote: »

Rains on the verge of hitting Cork & Kerry now.

saw that bring it on

bassy

Will there be much wind for kk,cw,Laois ? And what time should we exspect it in these countys?.

Pangea

Weathercheck wrote: »

If i was in Donegal or generally in the northwest and north i would be expecting some damaging wind gusts overnight. So hopefully preparations have been taken.

This will be rapidly developing overhead.

I told a few, the people I told had no idea there is a storm coming tonight, it hasn't been highlighted by the media too much up until the last forecast I seen on rte which is a bit last minute.

snaps

Started to hear the wind down the chimney now!