Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Pangea

So is every1 doing an all nighter or what?
Will the winds still be strong in the NW in the morning time?

snaps

The M6 bouy hasnt updated since 20.00.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Hi-Res NMM model had Valentia area under 50-60 knot gusts for 9pm.
Report says 36. I wonder is it just a timing difference or maybe winds for the south wont be as strong as expected.

Hard to say Maq, though I'd say a timing difference more than anything, although the yr.no HIRLAM model have actual mean speeds reaching BF 9 before midnight at Valentia:

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Munster/Valencia_Island~2961020/hour_by_hour.html

which seems a little unlikely as well.

I don't use the NMM wind speed charts at all as I don't have access but are they reliable in general do you think going from your own experience?

Sponge Bob

M4 finally dropping 993.2 > 990.5 between 20:00 and 21:00

http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/buoys/observations.htm#M4

M6 no data yet.

sunbabe08

Pangea wrote: »

So is every1 doing an all nighter or what?
Will the winds still be strong in the NW in the morning time?

not back to college until next week, so i'm up:D

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hard to say Maq, though I'd say a timing difference more than anything, although the yr.no HIRLAM model have actual mean speeds reaching BF 9 before midnight at Valentia:

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Munster/Valencia_Island~2961020/hour_by_hour.html

which seems a little unlikely as well.

I don't use the NMM wind speed charts at all as I don't have access but are they reliable in general do you think going from your own experience?

Yeah I've used it before and found it accurate to within a few km/h. It's probably just timing then.

maquiladora

snaps wrote: »

The M6 bouy hasnt updated since 20.00.

Gust of doom confirmed. :P

Edit : It's updated now.

Tactical

Pangea wrote: »

So is every1 doing an all nighter or what?
Will the winds still be strong in the NW in the morning time?

Absolutely (In relation to the all nighter. Can only be hopeful in relation to the wind!)

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS showing about 38 knots sustained there for the same time. Quite a difference!

And the NAE is around 10 knots lower than the hirlam too, which is why I think for some reason the hirlam has gone a bit bonkers. It seems to possibly taking coastal convergence effects into account, but I really can't see sustained winds above 55 knots on any land station from this.

IMBACKLATER

i'd make the titles like this.:Dhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pnJtXmtjlc&feature=youtu.be

ninebeanrows

M6 buoy evened out.

980MB

Low centre is north of the buoy.

maquiladora

IMBACKLATER wrote: »

i'd make the titles like this.:Dhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pnJtXmtjlc&feature=youtu.be

I don't know whether to cringe or clap.

IMBACKLATER

Both, deliberately cheesy haha

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

And the NAE is around 10 knots lower than the hirlam too, which is why I think for some reason the hirlam has gone a bit bonkers. It seems to possibly taking coastal convergence effects into account, but I really can't see sustained winds above 55 knots on any land station from this.

Strange because the other HIRLAM outputs (DMI/EMHI) have not been showing anything that strong at all? I wonder are they showing potential gust speeds on that map instead?

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Strange because the other HIRLAM outputs (DMI/EMHI) have not been showing anything that strong at all? I wonder are they showing potential gust speeds on that map instead?

I don't think so, here are the detailed hourly forecasts for Malin and Belmullet, giving hurricane force winds for a time tonight.

Sponge Bob

M6 fell half a Mb even , GFZ 18z does not upgrade Ulli bar bringing it a tad south to my eye.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

If there are any Stingjets behind Ulli they may show up in the M6 data between Midnight and 6am

whiteandlight

Jealous! I'm in Portugal til Wednesday morning. I'm assuming since this is an event for tonight there'll be no problems at Dublin airport on wed morning? Lucky I got wifi to follow it even if not in the country!

joes girls

Wind is picking up here in wexford. Nothing bad yet, just a wet windy night, would be happy if it stayed like this. hate storms!!!

je55ie

Had heavy rain and strong winds for past 1/2 hour in South Kerry but now appears to be calming a bit. Strange

http://client16.addonchat.com/chat.php?id=539786&s

pauldry

pressure currently 990 in sligo with wind picking up.

temperature has gone from 3.7c to 5.1c in the last hour

6 to 8 am is our danger time here

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

I don't think so, here are the detailed hourly forecasts for Malin and Belmullet, giving hurricane force winds for a time tonight.

They were showing the same thing this morning as well. EMHI has only bf 9 to 10 for the same on its 18z run. Makes more sense.

cyclops999

Wind starting to pick up in the Midlands raining heavy.

TheMilkyPirate

rain just started in Wexford

Cantona's Collars

joes girls wrote: »

Wind is picking up here in wexford. Nothing bad yet, just a wet windy night, would be happy if it stayed like this. hate storms!!!

It's only the start of it,lucky you don't live in Donegal:D

Us folk in the South East usually miss all the fun regarding weather,it's been ages since we had a good storm down here.

Nice warm fire and let it do it's worst.

rhonin

Wind has started to pick up here in Sligo.

Harps

Su Campu wrote: »

This hi-res 12Z hirlam has hurricane force sustained winds touching 70 knots off the Donegal coast at 4am. It shows 65 knots for Belmullet around midnight.

I can't see these winds materialising, but Belmullet and Malin Head reports will be interesting to watch!

Incidentally, Donegal Airport is probably the best station of all, on the far northewestern coast. Keep track of its and Sligo's metars here.

Nice, I'm on Arranmore island right in the middle of the hurricane force winds I'm not expecting it to be that bad but a shame its not a daytime storm, would have loved to go up to the cliffs to check it out

cotton

zerks wrote: »

It's only the start of it,lucky you don't live in Donegal:D

Us folk in the South East usually miss all the fun regarding weather,it's been ages since we had a good storm down here.

Nice warm fire and let it do it's worst.

So true, we usually end up reading about the storms everyone else gets.

Fire lit too, sitting back & waiting.:)

Villain

Roches Point had a Gust of 50kts http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

leinad

anyone care to tell me what is the use of this? http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-v.asp

Deep Easterly

leinad wrote: »

anyone care to tell me what is the use of this? http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-v.asp

It's a visible satellite, which means you only get the sat images during daylight hours

Infrared image here:

http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-ir.asp