Bank of Ireland shares

cute geoge

Looking at doing a double down on these .how much lower can they go ???
My current break even price on my shares is €6.80 and if i purchase 1/3 more of these at €4.50 it will bring my break even price back to €6.
My only worry is i have seen the value of some stocks completely wiped out before like independent ,AIB bought in boom & plenty of others .Is b o Ireland any different,why are every one running scared???

drunkmonkey

cute geoge wrote: »

Looking at doing a double down on these .how much lower can they go ???
My current break even price on my shares is €6.80 and if i purchase 1/3 more of these at €4.50 it will bring my break even price back to €6.
My only worry is i have seen the value of some stocks completely wiped out before like independent ,AIB bought in boom & plenty of others .Is b o Ireland any different,why are every one running scared???

We could be at the start of a meltdown. They could go a lot lower. Deutsche bank is probably weighing heavily on a lot of bank shares. I wouldn't double down until the German mess is fixed.

Jim2007

cute geoge wrote: »

Looking at doing a double down on these .how much lower can they go ???
My current break even price on my shares is €6.80 and if i purchase 1/3 more of these at €4.50 it will bring my break even price back to €6.
My only worry is i have seen the value of some stocks completely wiped out before like independent ,AIB bought in boom & plenty of others .Is b o Ireland any different,why are every one running scared???

So basically you have no idea what is going on, but you are going to buy more to reach some kind of a mythical break even point... when you don’t understand the investment it’s best to get out.

To be successful in investing in banking and insurance stocks you need specialist knowledge and a willingness to devote hours every week to research. You are looking for banks with a high T1 ratio, probably about 10 or more, a P/E of about 7 or less, a small domestic mortgage loan book, minimal credit card debt and profits coming mainly from services such as asset management etc... selling for around 60% of your valuation.

Igotadose

Friday's IT had an article about BOI expanding it's UK unit, which is currently valued at zero. What are people's thoughts about this? It seems to me with the spectre of Brexit this year, expanding investment in the UK, is a bad idea. I understand (to a point) 'buy it when it's low', but what business opportunity is there, in a country where the economy might contract dramatically over the next few years? As it is, the economy in the UK hasn't been growing, and companies are pulling out or modifying their investment plans.

I'm just mystified as to why BOI would do this, they're not exactly on great financial footing and can afford a big UK loss as far as I know, the fact that their existing UK position being so weak might seem to imply they don't know the market there and pouring more investment in it, without a solid plan that accounts for Brexit, is just good money after bad.

The plan per the article is 'increased focus on higher loan-to-value mortgage offerings to first-time buyers and equity-release loans to seniors.' I can't imagine seniors taking out more loans in a Brexited UK; is the expectation that government supports will shrink so much that they'll be forced? And equity release loans (reverse mortgages?) are such a bad idea. Plus first-time buyers when there are no jobs or salaries are collapsing, won't exist.

Seems like this is an aggressive and dangerous move, but maybe the funds are ring-fenced well enough that if its a fail, they'll fire a few execs but not go under badly. Hard to tell.

Jim2007

Igotadose wrote: »

The plan per the article is 'increased focus on higher loan-to-value mortgage offerings to first-time buyers and equity-release loans to seniors.'.

Another reason to steer well clear of them! Banks very rarely do well in foreign mortgages and most end in tears. Entering foreign markets to target high net worth clients by generating fee income is one think. But a foreign loan market that could very quickly turn sub prime is something else.

Dinarius

Trading at a six-year low. Last time we were here was March 2013.

Also, volume have been huge over the last year, much higher than back then.

Recent trading range with bottom of around €4.60/65 has also been broken.

So, support is way below here. But, with huge volume following the trend, bottom could be anywhere.

Wonder is this just general market uncertainty, and Brexit, or something more BofI specific?


D.

drunkmonkey

What was it in 1995...that could be the bottom.

Mad_maxx

Dinarius wrote: »

Trading at a six-year low. Last time we were here was March 2013.

Also, volume have been huge over the last year, much higher than back then.

Recent trading range with bottom of around €4.60/65 has also been broken.

So, support is way below here. But, with huge volume following the trend, bottom could be anywhere.

Wonder is this just general market uncertainty, and Brexit, or something more BofI specific?


D.

Big player shorting along with a looming brexit

Dinarius

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Big player shorting along with a looming brexit

Interesting.


So, maybe today's bounce is a bit of short-covering. If it's due to news flow, I'm not aware of any.


Big trend is still very much down. Having tested the €4.40s, no reason we can't go there again.


Whoever is elected in UK PM race, they're stuck with what May left them. BofI UK exposure not getting better anytime soon.



This is as near as stock watching gets to blood sports.



D.

Kickstart1.3

I see this as an opportunity to buy. Many analysts are now stating that the UK assets are priced in for free now. When the price went sub €4.50 it triggered massive buying volume so it gives me a bit of comfort buying at these levels.
21c dividend next year. that's 4.5% return from dividends alone. I have money on deposit with AIB and I'm getting less than 0.5% interest. I can see this share back over €5 soon and long term with Brexit sorted back over €7.

Jim2007

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

I see this as an opportunity to buy. Many analysts are now stating that the UK assets are priced in for free now. When the price went sub €4.50 it triggered massive buying volume so it gives me a bit of comfort buying at these levels.
21c dividend next year. that's 4.5% return from dividends alone. I have money on deposit with AIB and I'm getting less than 0.5% interest. I can see this share back over €5 soon and long term with Brexit sorted back over €7.

Fools and their money are easily parted. Not one single thing you have said in anyway specifically improves BOIs ability to perform. And on top of which you are willing to take on a high risk investment for 4% when the long term return on stocks is projected to be about 6%.

Zurich Insurance Group would give you around 5.5% for example, so why would you risk your cash for less?

Kickstart1.3

Jim2007 wrote: »

Fools and their money are easily parted. Not one single thing you have said in anyway specifically improves BOIs ability to perform. And on top of which you are willing to take on a high risk investment for 4% when the long term return on stocks is projected to be about 6%.

Zurich Insurance Group would give you around 5.5% for example, so why would you risk your cash for less?

I don't think anyone is questioning the banks performance. €1 billion on profit last year, lots of work done to turn things around.
But being the fool that I am I'll give it a reasonable time frame of 18 months for the share price to turn around too.
I have set my stop loss at €3.90 so I'm willing to let it fall another 10-15% on the current share price. But my upside target is €7.50 or 65% upside. Not a bad wager

Dinarius

Starting to look like it barks and wears a lead, as they say.

Wonder why AIB hasn’t followed suit in the last 12 months? It’s down a little under 30%. BofI has halved in value. They usually move pretty much in tandem.

Does BofI have more UK exposure?

Ghoulishly compelling!

D.

drunkmonkey

Your talking about buying now though, why not wait 12mts and see is it anywhere near your upside target of €7.50. I'd say it'll be closer to the .50

littlevillage

Dinarius wrote: »

Starting to look like it barks and wears a lead, as they say.

Wonder why AIB hasn’t followed suit in the last 12 months? It’s down a little under 30%. BofI has halved in value. They usually move pretty much in tandem.

Does BofI have more UK exposure?

Ghoulishly compelling!

D.

maybe its to do with AIB being not as liquid. Irish Government still owns 71% of it...and doesn't trade day to day.

and Yes, I guess BofI has more UK exposure...


Note From Davy Stock Brokers today regarding Irish Banks.

Davy View
The seismic shift in the interest rate outlook fundamentally challenges all banks’ core business models as lower-for-longer interest rates impair profitability from maturity transformation. We reduce our earnings forecasts to reflect the negative impact of lower reinvestment rates on Treasury portfolios and structural hedges, the pass-through to business lending rates and a flat outlook for tracker mortgage rates with only modest liability offsets. Downside risks remain from unchartered interest rate territory such as possible cuts to tracker mortgage rates and mortgage competition. In addition, it is too early to consider offsets from either lower impairments or operating costs.

Lower-for-longer rates drive earnings cuts
For AIB, we reduce our 2020/2021 earnings by c.5.8-7.2%, our 2021 CET1 by 18bps and our price target to 450c (470c prior). For BOI, we reduce our 2020/2021 earnings by 8.5-11%, our 2021 CET1 by 30bps and our price target to 725c (810c). For PTSB, we lower our 2020 earnings by 3%, our 2021 earnings by 22% (no tracker uplift), our 2021 CET1 by 15bps and our price target to 170c (180c).

Dinarius

How long have we had tracker mortgages? They will eventually be bled out of the system.

Down another 3% at the moment. Interesting to see if we break this week’s €4.41, which was a 10 year low, I think.

If the banks are any kind of barometer of the economy, then you have to think that bad things are coming down the line, based on their share performance. If bad things aren’t coming down the line, then it must be BofI specific, and the market thinks they’re screwed.

D.

Jim2007

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

I don't think anyone is questioning the banks performance. €1 billion on profit last year, lots of work done to turn things around.
But being the fool that I am I'll give it a reasonable time frame of 18 months for the share price to turn around too.
I have set my stop loss at €3.90 so I'm willing to let it fall another 10-15% on the current share price. But my upside target is €7.50 or 65% upside. Not a bad wager

At the end of the day it is your money, you want to accept a low return for a high risker, go for it.

drunkmonkey

Dinarius wrote: »

How long have we had tracker mortgages? They will eventually be bled out of the system.

Down another 3% at the moment. Interesting to see if we break this week’s €4.41, which was a 10 year low, I think.

If the banks are any kind of barometer of the economy, then you have to think that bad things are coming down the line, based on their share performance. If bad things aren’t coming down the line, then it must be BofI specific, and the market thinks they’re screwed.

D.

It's not BOI specific, the Americans are looking over at European banks wondering when there going to implode. Deutche Bank are looking at dropping 20,000 staff. There's a problem were not hearing about if those kind of cut are needed.

Jim2007

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's not BOI specific, the Americans are looking over at European banks wondering when there going to implode. Deutche Bank are looking at dropping 20,000 staff. There's a problem were not hearing about if those kind of cut are needed.

Mainland European bank are not even close to imploding, their T1 ratios plus the more recent attempts at enforcing Basel III make it so.

DB has been in trouble for a long time now and much of it stems from it's over reliance on borrowing to generate income to the determent of fee income, going into the banking crisis. This was further compounded by attempts to rectify the situation by attracting fee paying clients. Unfortunately most of the clients attracted were for the C list.

Kickstart1.3

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's not BOI specific, the Americans are looking over at European banks wondering when there going to implode. Deutche Bank are looking at dropping 20,000 staff. There's a problem were not hearing about if those kind of cut are needed.

Jezz the comments are getting more stupid.
Bank of Ireland isn't like Deutsche Bank. DB has an underperforming yet costing a fortune Investment bank. DB has too many employees from its acquisition of Postbank. The two banks simply don't compare.

The Americans are being greedy while others are fearful.
Have a look at the Shareholder profile for Bank of Ireland
American ownership aka Wallstreet was 35% in 2017, 37% in 2018 and I suspect it's gone well into the 40's with all this share price manipulation. Just have a look at Blackrock's holding, they have been seasawing their ownership over the last 12 to 18 months. This is done to shake out the small holders who are now hold less than 7% of the bank down from over 12% at one stage. 190 entities now own 88% of the bank.
Wallstreet is getting its claws deep into this bank, they see the monopoly that the big two banks have here and the other one is state owned.
Even with ECB interest rates on the floor this bank is pumping out juicy profits. It's gonna be a gushing Oil well when the ECB rates start to rise!
So just like in the 90s onwards they were there to reap the profits for a good 15+ years before dumping the stock on a load of Bag holders.
At €4.57 I'm buying all I can

Gatoh

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

At €4.57 I'm buying all I can

Good luck!

Jim2007

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

The Americans are being greedy while others are fearful.
Have a look at the Shareholder profile for Bank of Ireland
American ownership aka Wallstreet was 35% in 2017, 37% in 2018 and I suspect it's gone well into the 40's with all this share price manipulation. Just have a look at Blackrock's holding, they have been seasawing their ownership over the last 12 to 18 months. This is done to shake out the small holders who are now hold less than 7% of the bank down from over 12% at one stage. 190 entities now own 88% of the bank.
Wallstreet is getting its claws deep into this bank, they see the monopoly that the big two banks have here and the other one is state owned.
Even with ECB interest rates on the floor this bank is pumping out juicy profits. It's gonna be a gushing Oil well when the ECB rates start to rise!
So just like in the 90s onwards they were there to reap the profits for a good 15+ years before dumping the stock on a load of Bag holders.
At €4.57 I'm buying all I can

In the real world BOI is a small bank, so no Wall Street is not getting it's claws into it, a couple of asset managers are. On top of which asset managers holdings tell you nothing unless you have insider information and know what percentage they are actually holding on their own account.

BOI's profits are anything but juicy as you call it. It's based on borrowings rather than fees and Irish banks have a very poor reputation for pricing such products or have you forgotten....

Kickstart1.3

Jim2007 wrote: »

In the real world BOI is a small bank, so no Wall Street is not getting it's claws into it, a couple of asset managers are. On top of which asset managers holdings tell you nothing unless you have insider information and know what percentage they are actually holding on their own account.

BOI's profits are anything but juicy as you call it. It's based on borrowings rather than fees and Irish banks have a very poor reputation for pricing such products or have you forgotten....

A €5 Billion Euro company isn't small. A small bank but one that has a share in a monopoly and that does interest Wall street. Just look at the ownership, its 40% USA so yes Wall street are getting there claws into this.
As for the asset funds, they publish an annual 10-K so you don't need insider info to know this
And low and behold another weekly holdings RNS from Blackrock.....

Jim2007

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

A €5 Billion Euro company isn't small. A small bank but one that has a share in a monopoly and that does interest Wall street. Just look at the ownership, its 40% USA so yes Wall street are getting there claws into this.
As for the asset funds, they publish an annual 10-K so you don't need insider info to know this
And low and behold another weekly holdings RNS from Blackrock.....

Oh for heaven sakes, my local Kanton Bank (County) is a s big as BOI. In banking terms it's peanuts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_banks

And 40% of peanuts is even less peanuts.

Kickstart1.3

Low and behold another holdings RNS from Blackrock.
Must be the one of their cleaning staff that has an interest in such a tiny bank

drunkmonkey

Probably just BlackRock algorithms. It's not a buy signal.

Kickstart1.3

Probably but unlikely that its a Bot that's gone unchecked. It's there for a reason
For sure its not a buy signal, this share is falling with the last 14 months. The current trend is still down, but we now have well entered the Undervalued territory.

daheff

Dinarius wrote: »

How long have we had tracker mortgages? They will eventually be bled out of the system.
.

It'll take 30/35 years to bleed them all out of the system. So probably another 20-25 years left of them (seeing as most were issued around 2005/2007).

Dinarius

Now at its low for the day. Another 4%+ wiped off the value of BofI.

Have to think that Deutsche Bank is going to weigh on the sector for some time.

D.

Keith1111

1-Let's say 1000 investment.
So after tax you need your share price to grow by 50% 5per share to 7.50 per share
500 profit - 33 capital gains tax = 335 profit
Correct ?
2- And where do declare cpt on revenue I couldn't see it ?
3- is bank of Ireland worth any investment
At the moment with brixet kicking of again.
4- I can't find any charts longer then 5 years
Anyone know where you find 20 or more years share price history