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Bank of Ireland shares

  • 23-11-2011 10:10pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 10 ✭✭✭ birdmany


    Thinking of buying Bank of Ireland shares with a 25 year time horizon. Is this wise?

    Can anyone tell me their book value at the moment?


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,288 ✭✭✭✭ Thargor


    I love these threads :D

    49105main_popcorn.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 872 martyoo


    I love these threads

    These threads used to annoy me but I am actually starting to enjoy them!


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,248 ✭✭✭✭ HeidiHeidi


    You can have mine for free - which is about all they're worth at the moment!!! I fear it may take longer than 25 years for them to recover.....:eek:

    ETA - €0.07 as of today..... FFS!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 620 SyntonFenix


    birdmany wrote: »
    Thinking of buying Bank of Ireland shares with a 25 year time horizon. Is this wise?

    Can anyone tell me their book value at the moment?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZowKXiPdk6c&feature=player_embedded#!

    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/11/23/this-cannot-go-on-and-it-wont-change-is-coming

    I'd buy about €50 worth of BoI shares as a novelty bet :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 328 ✭✭ Soulja boy


    birdmany wrote: »
    Thinking of buying Bank of Ireland shares with a 25 year time horizon. Is this wise?

    Can anyone tell me their book value at the moment?

    Your timeframe gives a lot of room for recovery, there are better investments out there. Just dont be dissapointed if a year or two down the line they are worth half of what you invested.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,831 ROK ON


    The tangible book value is 27 cents.

    In terms of pure speculation I think it is rather appealing. Purely binary. If EZ fails then it will more than likley be one of very very many banks that will go under.

    However IMHO, the balance sheet and equity (along with contingent capital raised) is more than enough for my worse case scenario.

    Two recent positives for me were the sale of some UK assets and the securitization of a UK loan book. These all help in running down the crazy funding mismatch that the bank has. Dont forget that the guaranteed funding from the state is a huge drain on profitability, so the sooner they can get off that the better from a profitability point of view (dont count your chickens just yet though).

    Deposit funding seems to have stopped falling. It now needs to show some traction in ncreasing over the next few years.

    What is interesting about nearly all banks at the present, is that prior to the 2000's Net Interest Margins in nearly all institutions globally were much fatter than they are today. If we ever get back to that type of margin environment, then that level of profitability is not being priced into to any bank that I can see presently.

    Despite all of that warm fuzzy stuff, it is still very much a binary bet. At some time in the future it will trade at or above book value, or it will tarde at zero.

    The underlying level of bad debts in BKIR's books is not deteriorating in the way that is happening at RBS, Danske;s NIB or at KBC. BKIR have always had the reputation of being better than the rest in terms of credit quality. This is also the case with the UK buy to let book, which is one of the better UK BTL books out there at present.

    As I said, a decent speculative bet. Worth €0.3 or €0.0 IMHO.


  • Registered Users Posts: 194 ✭✭ Trader1991


    birdmany wrote: »
    Thinking of buying Bank of Ireland shares with a 25 year time horizon. Is this wise?

    Can anyone tell me their book value at the moment?

    Would you not prefer to find a company that actually looks descent on paper in terms of value and isn't riddled with debt and corruption. Like I cant understand how people still think BOI is worthy of investment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,793 ✭✭✭ Gandalph


    No the shares are worth like 1 cent and you're paying 7 times their value for them


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭ willietherock


    Fairfax appear to be buying all the while. A ringing endorsement?


  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭ justforgroups


    There was something mentioned in the forthcoming budget of an explicit tax on dividends? Would make investing even more unattractive then it is at the moment I think.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,149 Raskolnikov


    There was something mentioned in the forthcoming budget of an explicit tax on dividends? Would make investing even more unattractive then it is at the moment I think.
    You already pay tax on dividends at the higher rate in this country. Anyway, Bank of Ireland won't be paying dividends for years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭ willietherock


    You already pay tax on dividends at the higher rate in this country. Anyway, Bank of Ireland won't be paying dividends for years.
    What's your view on BOI shares?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,149 Raskolnikov


    What's your view on BOI shares?
    Well, I think the good news is that the really heavy dilution has probably passed. The bad news is that they are going to be deleveraging until 2014. That means a smaller loan book and smaller profits. Realistically, I think normalised profits are going to be in the €500 million region (as opposed to €2 billion boom-time profits). That puts Bank of Ireland at 2x the current market cap, a price you might see in three years time, assuming the arse doesn't further fall out of the Irish property market. I think there's too much risk for only an ok return, especialy when Bank of America is valued at roughly the same price as Bank of Ireland, but has much better upside and more protection (US gov as opposed to IE gov).


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,834 Sonnenblumen



    €50 gets you into the disco but no mon for fun. But €5k would buy you plenty of future promise.;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭ justforgroups


    You already pay tax on dividends at the higher rate in this country. Anyway, Bank of Ireland won't be paying dividends for years.
    Please read what I posted more carefully. I said an explicit tax on dividends, i.e. in addition to income tax.

    And who knows - maybe a tax on just owning shares is coming in, so it doesn't matter whether you get a dividend or not - the government gets its money either way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭ willietherock


    discussion on BOI V American Banks as investments about 10 mins in.

    http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2011/11/manual-of-ideas-interview-with-guy.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 620 SyntonFenix


    In other words, don't.

    Unless you're into high risk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 952 ✭✭✭ shangri la


    birdmany wrote: »
    Thinking of buying Bank of Ireland shares with a 25 year time horizon. Is this wise?

    why?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,834 Sonnenblumen


    discussion on BOI V American Banks as investments about 10 mins in.

    http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2011/11/manual-of-ideas-interview-with-guy.html

    God the guy being interviewed likes the smell of his own steam?:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,834 Sonnenblumen


    shangri la wrote: »
    why?

    It's a bit like relying on traffic signs to advise on road conditions etc. Others are quite comfortable with own intuitive skills to see the lie of the land and make any adjustments accordingly.

    I guess we'll not know for several years, but one could do a lot worse than not buying BoI now?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 952 ✭✭✭ shangri la


    birdmany wrote: »
    Thinking of buying Bank of Ireland shares with a 25 year time horizon. Is this wise?

    Can anyone tell me their book value at the moment?

    do you think there are better mainstream investments to be had?


  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭ iamfromcork


    I'm going buying aib and boi share :),looking at keeping for 15 to 25 years.know it's very High risk but what the hell. Love the long shot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 926 ✭✭✭ neil.p.b


    I'm going buying aib and boi share :),looking at keeping for 15 to 25 years.know it's very High risk but what the hell. Love the long shot.

    AIBs current share price values it higher than it was at its peak in 2007!! Seems ridiculous right? Now take into account that it also no longer owns any of its profitable foreign businesses that used to make up a huge amount of its worth.

    There are MUCH better risk/reward shares out there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭ ranger4


    SP Broke through resistance and sp showing signs of recovery as europrats-ecb finaly getting house in order.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,509 Tiesto


    ranger4 wrote: »
    SP Broke through resistance and sp showing signs of recovery as europrats-ecb finaly getting house in order.

    Thanks, will buy right now!!
    :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1 alan26092


    Excuse my ignorance but I'm going to ask anyway...

    In September 2011 BOI shares were trading at €0.07 per share. Today they're trading at €0.14 per share.

    If I had bought €5k worth of shares in September would they now be worth €10k?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ christeb


    alan26092 wrote: »
    Excuse my ignorance but I'm going to ask anyway...

    In September 2011 BOI shares were trading at €0.07 per share. Today they're trading at €0.14 per share.

    If I had bought €5k worth of shares in September would they now be worth €10k?

    Yes


  • Registered Users Posts: 328 ✭✭ Soulja boy


    ... but minus tax and fees.


  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭ iamfromcork


    I only bought 15000 shares at boi and 15000 shares at aib when i last posted here (people telling me i was mad made me buy less), both are doing pretty well and as i said its a long term investment 20/25 years :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭ iamfromcork


    I have that aib Goodbody account but it won't let me buy chinese or russian stock ,any tips lads


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