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Bank of Ireland shares

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Our current long term low interest environment must mean that profits are difficult to achieve in banking and that the banking system is inherently unstable, any shock such are declining property prices or Brexit will have an amplified effect on Irish banks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,405 ✭✭✭Dinarius


    Our current long term low interest environment must mean that profits are difficult to achieve in banking and that the banking system is inherently unstable, any shock such are declining property prices or Brexit will have an amplified effect on Irish banks.

    I may be wrong, but given that you can borrow for a mortgage in Germany at 0.89% (see letter in last Saturday’s IT) and given that BofI are charging about
    six times the cost of the money for a mortgage here, I would have thought that it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. No?

    Back in the noughties, were Irish banks charging that sort of multiple for money? Not even close, I think.

    Maybe most of that licensed theft is going to repay Irish bank debt, so it’s not transferring to the bottom line. And it helps prop up those German banks we borrowed from and allow them to sell mortgages at giveaway rates.

    D.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭bcklschaps


    Portsalon wrote: »
    Interesting hatchet job on BoI's Boss Francesca McDonagh in the current edition of The Phoenix Magazine.

    One of her main objectives is to ensure that the bank has a 50:50 gender ratio by 2021. That's the kind of creative strategic thinking outside the (ahem) box that's bound to help BoI's share price! :confused:

    Read that article. 'Moneybags' could barely keep a straight face.

    Only a 44yro female CEO would come up with that kind of ****. Biggest share price drop in a single day for the bank in 10yrs. Francesca might be getting her P45 soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,952 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Sold out of BOI myself about 5 weeks ago. Felt that the SP was merely treading water and if anything was going to fall further. (I sold out at about a 20% loss... painful at the time, but you need to be disciplined, I would be down another 10% now, if I had held on), won't be going back into BOI any time soon.

    Christ, I am glad I bailed out when I did.

    Don't get me wrong, I have about 99 other Share ownership problems but at least this bitch ain't one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Dinarius wrote: »
    I may be wrong, but given that you can borrow for a mortgage in Germany at 0.89% (see letter in last Saturday’s IT) and given that BofI are charging about
    six times the cost of the money for a mortgage here, I would have thought that it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. No?

    Back in the noughties, were Irish banks charging that sort of multiple for money? Not even close, I think.

    Maybe most of that licensed theft is going to repay Irish bank debt, so it’s not transferring to the bottom line. And it helps prop up those German banks we borrowed from and allow them to sell mortgages at giveaway rates.

    D.

    Yes that's probable , they are lending a fraction of what they did then and still have a percentage of bad debt on the books along with other factors dragging the price down ;Wilbur Ross played them well.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 233 ✭✭Mach 3


    Mach 3 wrote: »
    A nice easy one to kick start your new career:

    Is BoI buy , hold or sell?

    Hold long term, sell short term.

    Now that is the kind of analysis I've been looking for.
    Where do I sign up?


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,145 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    If your buying a dip maybe Bank of America, The big US banks have done well the last few years compared to the Euro ones. https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=bac


  • Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭otterj


    bcklschaps wrote: »
    Read that article. 'Moneybags' could barely keep a straight face.

    Only a 44yro female CEO would come up with that kind of ****. Biggest share price drop in a single day for the bank in 10yrs. Francesca might be getting her P45 soon.

    Anyone want to post it here please? :)


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Our current long term low interest environment must mean that profits are difficult to achieve in banking and that the banking system is inherently unstable, any shock such are declining property prices or Brexit will have an amplified effect on Irish banks.

    The banks are on a race to the bottom and the worst point is to have to derive your main income from lending. But Irish banks T1s and Basel III compliance suggested that they are in a better position to take the hit than most European banks.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Dinarius wrote: »
    I may be wrong, but given that you can borrow for a mortgage in Germany at 0.89% (see letter in last Saturday’s IT) and given that BofI are charging about
    six times the cost of the money for a mortgage here, I would have thought that it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. No?

    Back in the noughties, were Irish banks charging that sort of multiple for money? Not even close, I think.

    Maybe most of that licensed theft is going to repay Irish bank debt, so it’s not transferring to the bottom line. And it helps prop up those German banks we borrowed from and allow them to sell mortgages at giveaway rates.

    D.

    Total drivel. You are comparing banking environments and philosophies that are completely different! If you want to understand this stuff then get out the reports of the German banks and start going through them! And stop listening to the talking heads.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    If your buying a dip maybe Bank of America, The big US banks have done well the last few years compared to the Euro ones. https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=bac

    Just a rule of thumb, but given the current P/E and it’s position within it’s usual price range, it would want to fall about 35% to 40% before it would give you a decent upside ratio.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,405 ✭✭✭Dinarius


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Just marketing nonsense, does not provide any kind of insight whatsoever.

    Is your middle name hyperbole? You do quite a line in it.

    D.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,405 ✭✭✭Dinarius




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    Just had a peep at AIB, don't really follow the price. Seems identical yearly chart to BOI. Macro rather than micro issues?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Dinarius wrote: »
    Is your middle name hyperbole? You do quite a line in it.

    D.

    Thanks for confirming your lack of knowledge on the topic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,145 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Just had a peep at AIB, don't really follow the price. Seems identical yearly chart to BOI. Macro rather than micro issues?

    Look at all the Euro banks over the last few years then look at the Americans ones. There going on polar opposite directions.
    Europes a basket case don't think we can see it looking out but the Yanks are laughing at us.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,952 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    otterj wrote: »
    Anyone want to post it here please? :)


    This is the article. The Phoenix, Date: July 25, 2019

    FRANCESCA MCDONAGH’S PROBLEMS AT BANK OF IRELAND

    THE CHIEF executive of Bank of Ireland (BoI), Francesca McDonagh, has overseen a total clear-out of all the top management inside the bank since she was appointed in October 2017. This is pretty drastic stuff and the relatively inexperienced CEO will need all her wits about her in the wake of such a shake up. Since taking charge, McDonagh’s record is less than impressive and her aim of making BoI the “champion bank in Ireland” looks like pure fantasy when the bank’s performance is measured against its prime competitor, AIB.

    The most senior of the departing executives, BoI’s finance director for the last 15 years, Andrew Keating, announced his departure last month, while the departure of Des Crowley, head of the BoI (UK), was announced a month before that. These latest changes in BoI’s senior executive team come on top of the departure last year of the head of the core Irish retail division, Liam McLoughlin; Pat McSweeney, head of BoI’s global markets division; Mick Torpey, head of corporate & treasury division; Peter Morris, head of governance; and Lewis Love, chief operating officer. This represents a substantial changing of the guard.

    While the government-imposed pay cap may be a factor, clearly McDonagh is being fully supported through this dramatic overhaul in the bank’s key personnel by BoI chairman/governor Paddy Kennedy (ex-Greencore and Paddy Power Betfair), who took over the senior role in August last year. At 50, Kennedy has more experience than his 44-year-old CEO, but it is hard to gauge what level of guidance McDonagh has been getting from the BoI chair during this fundamental senior staff clear-out.

    In her ‘state of the nation’ address to investors in June last year, nine months after her appointment, McDonagh announced her strategic plan, with the key ambition to “become the national champion bank in Ireland”. This sounds like PR blather, although her other stated ambitions – to “grow the loan book by 20% by 2021” and target “a reduction in our cost base to €1.7bn by 2021” – were, if anything, relatively modest.

    Bank of Ireland

    To be the “national champion bank”, obviously BoI needs to comprehensively beat AIB in the marketplace. And while doing so, the objective is to “transform the bank, serve customers brilliantly and grow sustainable profits”. This sounds like more public relations blather, with McDonagh telling the Oireachtas Committee on Finance of her plans to “embed the culture and values we want” within the group.

    Apparently, during 2018 “over 6,000 colleagues attended over 50 roadshows… We have seen a significant improvement in staff engagements… There are the net promoter scores and we look at verbatims.”

    Less surprisingly, maybe, McDonagh has also announced that “all management and leadership appointments will represent a 50:50 gender by the end of 2021”.

    What is concerning about all these pronouncements is the bottom line outcome. Having been appointed in October 2017, McDonagh had a full year to improve the bank’s performance during 2018 and, against a favourable economic background, this should have been more easily achievable than in the preceding years, particularly with the absence of real competition in the Irish banking sector.

    She did manage to increase gross new lending last year by 13% to €15.9bn, but the vast bulk of this was eaten up by customers paying off old loans and the net new lending only came to €1.3bn. The total loan book increased to just over €76bn – significantly bigger than AIB’s €61bn.

    Nevertheless, despite a 3% reduction in costs to €1.94bn, BoI’s pre-impairment operating profit fell last year by 11% from €829m to €740m. Last year, AIB turned in a pre-impairment operating profit of €1.05bn – that is 42% higher than BoI.

    Considering that BoI’s €76bn loan book is 25% bigger than AIB’s E61bn, this is hard to understand and impossible to reconcile with McDonagh’s claim that she wants the bank to be “the national champion bank in Ireland”. It is frankly ludicrous to make statements like this if, on the key measure of profitability, BoI is so dramatically behind AIB.

    It is also a worry that, in 2017, BoI’s key net interest margin fell from 2.24% to 2.2% last year. Although this is going backwards, McDonagh has targeted a margin of 2.24% by 2021. Given that AIB is already at 2.47%, this looks less than ambitious and further undermines BoI’s ambition to be “national champion bank”.

    CREDENTIALS
    While McDonagh had 20 years’ experience with HSBC and became group general manager of retail banking in Europe, the annual report clearly overstates the 44-year-old’s credentials: “A skilled global banker, renowned for strategic thinking and a proven track record in successfully executing strategy. A history of delivering strong financial performance coupled with leadership of transformation to drive future results.” So far, McDonagh has dumped all the bank’s senior managers while claiming to have created a new and more feminine-orientated culture, but profitability is going backwards and further lagging behind AIB.

    Announcing the new initiative that BoI is re-entering the Irish mortgage brokerage market is a pretty uninspiring move. All Irish insurance brokers are crying out for access to mortgage funds and, of course, they have to be paid their 1% commission, which will eat into margins. The move simply retraces the strategy adopted by BoI when it was working through the ICS Building Society, which it flogged off a few years ago.

    TRACKER IMPACT
    Patrick Kennedy
    Patrick Kennedy

    It is hard to be optimistic about McDonagh’s chances of steering BoI ahead of AIB given the lack of any evidence that the current gap is set to close any time soon. It would certainly take a real “skilled global banker” to pull this off, but there are worrying signs. McDonagh spent her whole career working for one of the biggest banks in the world, HSBC, having joined it when she was a 22-year-old graduate (having studied politics, philosophy and economics).

    Climbing the ladder inside a huge organisation like this requires almost as much diplomatic skill in office politics as raw talent. This is not to say that McDonagh does not necessarily have what it takes but, while the CEO has been dealing with BoI’s cost base and IT platform, this is true of every other bank as they increasingly move to remote automated platforms.

    Having a relatively young chairman in the form of 50-year-old Kennedy is another factor when assessing BoI’s future trajectory. Very unusually, the BoI annual report doesn’t give the ages of the executive and non-executive directors.

    Where McDonagh has been impressive is that, on joining the bank, she was upfront about the tracker scandal impact, which BoI had previously sought to minimise. She was ahead of the curve by admitting that BoI may have underestimated the number of cases involved, stating that there could be a further 5,000 possible cases on top of the 8,500 already known. This brought the total number of cases up to 13,500, with McDonagh increasing the provision to cover the cost of these by a whopping €200m.

    However, it is easy enough to take steps like this when you are new in the job and the blame is safely attached to the previous regime. It could well be that the whole top management team in BoI was simply not up to scratch and that McDonagh was right to perform a clean sweep, no doubt backed in this by her chairman.

    GENDER RATIO
    On top of this there is the commitment to a 50:50 gender ratio “in all new management and leadership appointments by 2021”. This is a laudatory aim, but does not necessarily guarantee ending up with the very best management team available.

    Given how far BoI is behind AIB in profitability, despite the former having a bigger asset base, closing this gap should be the key concern for McDonagh and Kennedy.

    So far McDonagh has made all the right noises, but has underachieved on the bottom line. If she cannot at least match AIB on this measure, this will surely ultimately be the €950,000 pa CEO’s undoing. Her remuneration clocks in at just under double the government’s current €½m limit for senior bankers in the likes of AIB (where Bernard Byrne recently called it a day).

    Certainly, the stock market has been underwhelmed by McDonagh’s performance. From a share price of €8 in January 2018 just after she joined, investors have seen the price almost halved to a current €4.65. Nevertheless, it is noted in the annual report that the bank’s dividend for 2018 was 16c per share, an increase on the 11.5c in 2017.

    At the current share price of €4.65, the shares are on a trailing price-earnings multiple of eight. This is not the kind of rating the market gives to “champion” banks.

    The annual report cover features a young girl’s face with the tag line “Enabling our customers, colleagues and communities to thrive”. If it was a Department of Social Welfare report, you might deem this as appropriate but, for a world champion bank in Ireland, the message fails to inspire.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,145 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    The whole gender balance thing and cleaning out your top guys would send shivers down my spine if I was bagholding.
    It sounds like she's no experience outside one bank and is a complete femenist, if she's not willing to look past gender and put the right people in the right jobs there screwed.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,405 ✭✭✭Dinarius


    Down another 5%+ at the moment.

    I wonder if the fact that both BofI and AIB are major Press/TV/Radio advertisers accounts, somewhat, for the failure to cover them in any meaningful way?

    He who pays the piper...etc.

    D.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    The whole gender balance thing and cleaning out your top guys would send shivers down my spine if I was bagholding.
    It sounds like she's no experience outside one bank and is a complete femenist, if she's not willing to look past gender and put the right people in the right jobs there screwed.

    Glanbia has the same problem


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Dinarius wrote: »
    I wonder if the fact that both BofI and AIB are major Press/TV/Radio advertisers accounts, somewhat, for the failure to cover them in any meaningful way?

    So you are relying on news media to provide you with investing advice???

    Here is the thing, meaningful information in the context of investing decisions takes time to develop, say five or six weeks and when it is done it will not be sexy and so will not sell news media which means it will not generate advertising revenue.

    All of the data you need to make wise investing decisions is in the public domain, you need to get your finger out and start learning how to use it. If you want to start posting conspiracy theories I think there is a forum for that too.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,160 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    The whole gender balance thing and cleaning out your top guys would send shivers down my spine if I was bagholding.
    It sounds like she's no experience outside one bank and is a complete femenist, if she's not willing to look past gender and put the right people in the right jobs there screwed.

    It does not really matter one way or the other. She is the one responsible for strategy and trying to build a stable income on top of a 20% increase in the loan book is contradictory. She could get marshins carry it out if she wants, it will not make up for poor strategy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Dinarius wrote: »
    Down another 5%+ at the moment.

    I wonder if the fact that both BofI and AIB are major Press/TV/Radio advertisers accounts, somewhat, for the failure to cover them in any meaningful way?

    He who pays the piper...etc.

    D.

    I remember around 2008 and 2009 the media got a lot of blame for causing panic. Do you think there might be restrictions that we dont know about to avoid panic?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,405 ✭✭✭Dinarius


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    So you are relying on news media to provide you with investing advice???

    Did I write that I was using media for investment advice? You really only have one mode, don’t you? Presumptuous.

    D

    Ps. And by the way, Martians is spelt just like that, and with a capital M. But, as usual, you couldn’t vent your spleen fast enough. Lighten up, little man.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,405 ✭✭✭Dinarius


    Zenify wrote: »
    I remember around 2008 and 2009 the media got a lot of blame for causing panic. Do you think there might be restrictions that we dont know about to avoid panic?

    I doubt very much there are any media restrictions. Not writing financial op-ed with unfavourable analysis of a major advertising buyer is more plausible.

    Both Irish banks are dogs and BofI is only now within the sector p/e zone after its fall over the last few months. It had been totally overpriced.

    But, shareholders and pension fund holders will be affected by this. It’s bad news and should be reported as such by responsible media. People can then research further if it’s in their interest to do so.

    D.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 186 ✭✭Kickstart1.3


    Down to €3.35 now. I averaged down a bit more, I'm at €4.55 average now to break even. I can't afford to put anymore into this. It just keeps on falling and looks like it could have more to go.
    Kicking myself for investing in this as it could go belly up if we get a tough brexit which is looking very likely now.
    Turns out that Boi is on the hook for a lot of those new dairy loans which went out to farmers. Some of these loans make house Mortgages look insignificant. Its not unheard of for a new Milking parlour to be costing several hundred thousand. Those same parlours wont be worth a bag of beans if the UK slams the door on the Irish food sector.
    All banks have taken a beating in Europe but boi is leading the pack as the top falling stock


  • Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Down again today. This stock has lost nearly 50% of its value over the last 4 months. Ill have to take a better look and see when it might be worth a punt.it looks like a bit of breakout probably best stay away.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭beaner92


    beaner92 wrote: »
    It will break the lows of 4.80.

    Look out below .... less than 2 in a year. Not so hard to see this as trading at less than .99. But Also not hard to see an all cash offer by a pe firm or a group with large pockets to facilitate a restructuring or merger


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