Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

longshotvalue

Race Thoughts

Supreme Hurdle

Having looked through the race I cant find anything of interest at all really. I am on Galileo's Choice , after that big priced winner at Leopardstown I looked around to find a bit of value and backed him at 16.5 on Betfair, while that looks ok now, I’m pretty sure its about the right price, even tough he is much shorter now.

Darlan’s run in the Betfair Hurdle does look the best form in the race, but he is too short now and we don’t know as yet whether he will find anything after travelling well.

What I’ve decided is that as far as I can see Sous Les Cieux is overpriced at 20/1 with Boyles, as he has beaten Galileo’s Choice, in what looked a decent race, and probably should have won the Deloitte Hurdle but for a mistake 2 out. If he won that he would be at least half that price.

Also Prospect Wells, is overpriced on his form over the Course with Steps to Freedom. Granted he didn’t run well in his last race on soft ground but that c&d form is worth noting, and he was a high class flat horse who could easily be better on good ground. (in fact he has already shown that as it was good ground for his course run) He is currently 25/1

At the moment those 2 looks the best value.

UrbanSea

The fact Patrick Mullins is on the horse has seriously concerned me even more lately.
My 3 bets are:
Binocular for the CH 6/1
Grand Vision for the Pertemps 14/1
Champion Court for the Jewson 10/1

NaiveMelodies

the groutch wrote: »

back in December before they all took the wrong course, Uncle Junior was toiling while Scotsirish was still hard held, and that was off level weights.
now Scotsirish is getting 3lb off Uncle Junior, so I know who I'd prefer to have my money on.

I wouldn't say Scotsirish was hard held but was certainly looking like the winner, Honestly on the day and after watching the race a few times, I would have said Scotsirish and Balthazaar King looked the forecast.
Balthazaar Kings a nice price, but no point backing ante-post as I can imagine the gamble on Scotsirish will push the field out.

Huntley

UrbanSea wrote: »

The fact Patrick Mullins is on the horse has seriously concerned me even more lately.
My 3 bets are:
Binocular for the CH 6/1
Grand Vision for the Pertemps 14/1
Champion Court for the Jewson 10/1

Isn't Scotsirish your biggest ante-post bet of the festival?

UrbanSea

Nope,I said he was going to be. The ride he was given at Punchestown seriously frightened me.

Colonel Sanders

Had a look at the RSA today.

I would be all over Last Instalment had fate not intervened.

Reading the Weatherby's guide Grand Crus is as anti-trends as you can get. Bobs Worth hits so many of them but his jumping hasn't impressed me at all.

Looking for something outside the front 4 or 5 but struggling tbh.

Colonel Sanders

5 days will be out soon. At that stage I think a bankers & bismark thread will be needed

Nulty

I've gone for Join Together in the RSA. He's a plodder who is sure to get the trip and is proven around Cheltenham. Great shout at 8/1

faoile@n

Invictus for me in the RSA. Relished the step up in trip lto and will love the good ground. Confirmed as his intended target by Alan King.

Also have had a few quid on Sir Des Champs I think he would have a serious chance if he lines up he's been crying out for a step up in trip. Mouse Morris seems intent on running First Lieutenant in this race but hopefully Gigginstown will see the light and let SDC run I don't think he'll have the pace for the Jewson.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I've gone for Join Together in the RSA. He's a plodder who is sure to get the trip and is proven around Cheltenham. Great shout at 8/1

My choice too Iain. Invictus is a horse I have followed the most this year, I know he won well last time over 3 miles but something is niggling me not to back him at Cheltenham

Slattsy

Bobs Worth or First Lieutenant for me.

sting60

Ted Spread for the Imperial cup at Sandown and the County hurdle,got this of a good source this morning..I was told to do the double.

premierstone

sting60 wrote: »

Ted Spread for the Imperial cup at Sandown and the County hurdle,got this of a good source this morning..I was told to do the double.

Would any bookie allow this unless it was a special, are both events not linked?

Goldcupfav

sting60 wrote: »

Ted Spread for the Imperial cup at Sandown and the County hurdle,got this of a good source this morning..I was told to do the double.

Isnt there a bonus if you win the Imperial on Saturday and then go on to win at Cheltenham?? Doubt any bookie would taken the bet as a double.

meriwether

Banker of the week for me at a price is Long Run.

Backed him today at 7/4, hopefully Kauto's recovery will boost his price a little bit.

I thought even in defeat in the KG, he ran an excellent trial for the GC. Kauto was at his imperious best, and LR was coming back at him at the end.

The small margin of the victory was much overlooked in the midst of the celebrations over Kautos winning.

LR was closing him down, and over an extra 2.5f an an uphill finish, I expect his stamina to win the day with relative comfort.

Goldcupfav

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Isnt there a bonus if you win the Imperial on Saturday and then go on to win at Cheltenham?? Doubt any bookie would taken the bet as a double.

Edit.. 75k bonus if you win Saturday then again at the Festival. Gaspara was the last horse to do it for the Pipe's in 2007.

UnitedIrishman

Any reason for the drift on Trifolium in the Supreme Nov.?

mccarte2

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Any reason for the drift on Trifolium in the Supreme Nov.?

The layers heard Davy Russell tipping him

Backstreet Moyes

Anybody know anything about Ulck Du Lin in the Fred Winter. Friend said he was told he is meant to be a serious horse. Cant really find anything about him.

RichieLawlor

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody know anything about Ulck Du Lin in the Fred Winter. Friend said he was told he is meant to be a serious horse. Cant really find anything about him.

He will have his first run for PFN in the Fred Winter, lots of word around for it

sting60

premierstone wrote: »

Would any bookie allow this unless it was a special, are both events not linked?

No idea.Cannot find entries for Imperial Cup anywhere.

mccarte2

sting60 wrote: »

No idea.Cannot find entries for Imperial Cup anywhere.

Entries are at http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=548209&r_date=2012-03-10#raceTabs=lc_

sting60

mccarte2 wrote: »

Entries are at http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=548209&r_date=2012-03-10#raceTabs=lc_

Thanks.

UrbanSea

Sting you'd have to ask for a special price cos they'd be related.

Going to back Holmwood Legend at 33/1 for the Festival Plate

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

Sting you'd have to ask for a special price cos they'd be related.

Going to back Holmwood Legend at 33/1 for the Festival Plate

I cant even get a price of Paddy Power for the Imperial cup which they sponsor.

mccarte2

Henry de Bromhead just mentioned on his Facebook page that Berties Dream won't be heading to Cheltenham. Think he was mentioned earlier on this thread. More likely to aim him at the Irish National.

Getoffmytrain

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody know anything about Ulck Du Lin in the Fred Winter. Friend said he was told he is meant to be a serious horse. Cant really find anything about him.

There's a good thread on the betfair forum discussing Vendor and Ulck du Lin in the Fred Winter. Apparently Phil Smith has let them in very lightly.

http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/28957359/ulck-du-lin-fred-winter-nicholls-plot-horse

eoghan_85

Without trying to scare people, did anyone hear anything that Quevega apparantly took a nasty fall while being schooled last week and is a doubt for Cheltenham? Got told this today but it was from someone who heard it from someone, etc... Hopefully it's bullsh!t but just curious if anyone else heard the same rumour?

jimjamcos

eoghan_85 wrote: »

Without trying to scare people, did anyone hear anything that Quevega apparantly took a nasty fall while being schooled last week and is a doubt for Cheltenham? Got told this today but it was from someone who heard it from someone, etc... Hopefully it's bullsh!t but just curious if anyone else heard the same rumour?

yea she did but both Ruby and Mullins have come out since and said she's fine, nothing to worry about. If you search the preview night thread on this think someone quotes Mullins as saying "she's ok to bet on" or something along those lines.

P.s if you ever hear a rumour like that, simply check the markets with the big bookmakers for a price drift...they're always the first to know!:cool:

eoghan_85

Cheers JimJam. Ya I checked the prices and found nothing unusual in the betting so was skeptical about it straight away. Just panicked a small bit seeing as I've doubled up nearly every ante post bet I have with either her or HF!