Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

mdwexford · 02-03-2012 4:56pm

If Kauto doesnt turn up (and I pray to god he will or it will put a huge dampener on the festival) I would take the chance with Grands Crus and usually Im totally against novices running in championship races but this really is the worst Gold Cup I have seen.

Bar Long Run the rest of the field are pigs, (Burton Port will bounce)

premierstone · 02-03-2012 5:33pm

Lookin on BF it looks as if Sir Des Champs is RSA bound

Slattsy · 02-03-2012 5:38pm

premierstone wrote: »

Lookin on BF it looks as if Sir Des Champs is RSA bound

Really?? Strange, id have thought First Lieutenant was nailed on for that. What price is SDC trading at?

Sammo13 · 02-03-2012 5:43pm

mdwexford wrote: »

If Kauto doesnt turn up (and I pray to god he will or it will put a huge dampener on the festival) I would take the chance with Grands Crus and usually Im totally against novices running in championship races but this really is the worst Gold Cup I have seen.

Bar Long Run the rest of the field are pigs, (Burton Port will bounce)

Question I posed was SS 5/4 or LR 6/4 and for me SS is a better bet. His form is better, looks to be the best novice since Moscow in 02, his opposition are outstanding hurdlers but chasers not so. Al Ferof for me is the pick bar the fav. Blackstairs needs flat track hit a wall last year. Arkle on paper looks top class, let see how they fair over fences. Overrated opposition...
Gold cup is a poor race, but often bar last 5 yrs the GC lacks depth. Not sold on LR, fancy him to get turned over.

premierstone · 02-03-2012 5:45pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Really?? Strange, id have thought First Lieutenant was nailed on for that. What price is SDC trading at?

Why so strange? It was always the intention to run Last Instalment in this untill he got injured so Gigginstown are not adverse to running two of theirs against each other, I got on @ 25's when Last Instalment withdrew, trading at 9/1 now.

mdwexford · 02-03-2012 5:49pm

Sammo13 wrote: »

Question I posed was SS 5/4 or LR 6/4 and for me SS is a better bet. His form is better, looks to be the best novice since Moscow in 02, his opposition are outstanding hurdlers but chasers not so. Al Ferof for me is the pick bar the fav. Blackstairs needs flat track hit a wall last year. Arkle on paper looks top class, let see how they fair over fences. Overrated opposition...
Gold cup is a poor race, but often bar last 5 yrs the GC lacks depth. Not sold on LR, fancy him to get turned over.

SS opposition are all unexposed though and can improve for the fast pace, better ground etc, four past festival winners against him as well.

LR literally has nothing to beat as far as I can see.

Sammo13 · 02-03-2012 5:58pm

premierstone wrote: »

Slattsy wrote: »

Really?? Strange, id have thought First Lieutenant was nailed on for that. What price is SDC trading at?

Why so strange? It was always the intention to run Last Instalment in this untill he got injured so Gigginstown are not adverse to running two of theirs against each other, I got on @ 25's when Last Instalment withdrew, trading at 9/1 now.

9/1 for jewson now, 11/1 best price for RSA.. 9.5 on betfair.. could this be grand crus potentially going to GC.

Goldcupfav · 02-03-2012 6:13pm

Surely Quel Esprit is the value at 16/1 if Kauto doesnt run. Seems to have got his jumping together over fences this term. Has had 3 chase starts over 3 miles plus. RSA last year still going well when fell. Unlucky at Punchestown last year when hampered by the loose horse and came down. And the Hennessy this year which he won easy enough. Trip shouldnt be a problem in the GC as he's by the same sire as Quinto De La Roque and he looks an out and out stayer. Ruby will surely be in the saddle if Kauto doesnt run. Will surely go off shorter than 16's if Ruby gets the leg up. Id rather be on Quel Esprit at 16's then Burton Port at 7's (Could bounce, May not be good enough anyway).

klairondavis · 02-03-2012 7:23pm

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Surely Quel Esprit is the value at 16/1 if Kauto doesnt run. Seems to have got his jumping together over fences this term. Has had 3 chase starts over 3 miles plus. RSA last year still going well when fell. Unlucky at Punchestown last year when hampered by the loose horse and came down. And the Hennessy this year which he won easy enough. Trip shouldnt be a problem in the GC as he's by the same sire as Quinto De La Roque and he looks an out and out stayer. Ruby will surely be in the saddle if Kauto doesnt run. Will surely go off shorter than 16's if Ruby gets the leg up. Id rather be on Quel Esprit at 16's then Burton Port at 7's (Could bounce, May not be good enough anyway).

Mullins has always thought the world of Quel Esprit. He was tanking along when he went at the third last in the RSA and he's unbeaten on his completed starts over fences. Looks like he has got his jumping together and the extra 2f will be no bother too him. 16/1 is a fine e/w bet with Ruby now likely to ride.

kiers47 · 02-03-2012 8:36pm

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Surely Quel Esprit is the value at 16/1.

Suggested this horse at 50's a couple of months ago. Hope some people got on. Looks a live contender for some prize money at least.

Huntley · 02-03-2012 9:09pm

I don't think Quel Esprit is good enough in the slightest. A 2l beating of Roberto Goldback is his best form to date which doesn't say much.

I don't even know where they are going to position the horse, if he tries to bowl along he will be going a yard quicker than he wants and if he is held up he won't have enough about him to make a challenge. He would exceed expectations if he were to place.

Sammo13 · 03-03-2012 12:49am

I like Quel, but the form of irish hennessy is poor, 2nd rated 155. Think Quel will make it and finish 5th or 6th, decent horse but can't see him winning.

Just pray Kauto makes it and we have a classic GC in 2 weeks, fingers crossed..

UrbanSea · 03-03-2012 12:52am

What a Friend in the betting w/o Kauto and LR is a great price at 16/1

Sammo13 · 03-03-2012 12:57am

Wouldn't put you off that bet Urban, WAF ran ok last time, worry is his head carriage, doesn't battle, but is the type to ran on into a place when others are tired and cried enough..

UrbanSea · 03-03-2012 1:01am

3 places and a quarter of the odds, I could at least see him finishing in the first five if Kauto and LR go, that's all he'd need to do to get the place part of the bet assuming both finish ahead of him

hucklebuck · 03-03-2012 2:20pm

ipitydafool wrote: »

Definitely agree. Whatever about the quality of the line-up in this years GC and Grands Crus chances in it if the owner/trainer care about their horse and its long term future they should go the novice route this year.

Another thing they need to consider is Long Run, he seems to travel and stay and stay and is well capable of breaking a novice.

Pipe was in todays Racing Post saying it could hinge on Kauto Star running or not, it's fairly clear its all about prizemoney

Juwwi · 03-03-2012 5:54pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

What a Friend in the betting w/o Kauto and LR is a great price at 16/1

That looks great value considering he's generally 20/1 to win the race.

Nulty · 03-03-2012 6:13pm

Haven't gone mad this year

Abergavenny - County
Divers - Plate
Sunnyhillboy - Kim Muir
Realt Dubh - Ryanair
Cinders and Ashes - Supreme
Blackstairmountain - Arkle
Alfie Spinner - NH Chase
Medermit - Gold Cup

NAPs - Divers and Sunnyhillboy

Divers and Sunnyhillboy double is 135/1 at Boylesports BTW

Colonel Sanders · 03-03-2012 6:18pm

Simonsig goes in the Neptune according to the RP

Might make the market for Boston Bob

Huntley · 03-03-2012 8:30pm

El Ninotorres wrote: »

What do people make of ScottIrish chances?

Urban Sea has regularly said that this horse is his banker of the meeting.

I'm sure he has fine combed the form if you want to get his angle on the horse.

Juwwi · 03-03-2012 8:38pm

Strange vibes coming from the preview nights from what I've read PW Mullins
not even a definate to ride him might switch to Uncle Junior.

Tho that could be a positive for Scotsirish backers.

jimjamcos · 03-03-2012 9:36pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

Strange vibes coming from the preview nights from what I've read PW Mullins
not even a definate to ride him might switch to Uncle Junior.

Tho that could be a positive for Scotsirish backers.

Davy Russell saying Scotsirish wouldn't get the 3.7 miles in a horsebox hasn't filled me with confidence either!

longshotvalue · 03-03-2012 10:58pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

Davy Russell saying Scotsirish wouldn't get the 3.7 miles in a horsebox hasn't filled me with confidence either!

Im not sure, in that race they more or less jog around and it turns into a sprint finish, it might suit him down to the ground...

ipitydafool · 03-03-2012 11:04pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

robbie1977 wrote: »

Strange vibes coming from the preview nights from what I've read PW Mullins
not even a definate to ride him might switch to Uncle Junior.

Tho that could be a positive for Scotsirish backers.

Davy Russell saying Scotsirish wouldn't get the 3.7 miles in a horsebox hasn't filled me with confidence either!

Yeah I say most people prob went straight away to back the horse after davys comments! Scotsirish looks well capable of staying the trip, looked in all likely hood of coasting to a win at course before christmas before that mess with them all running out. I would also like to see P Mullins switch and ride uncle junior. Don't rate him as a jockey at all.

sting60 · 03-03-2012 11:17pm

Nulty wrote: »

Haven't gone mad this year

Abergavenny - County
Divers - Plate
Sunnyhillboy - Kim Muir
Realt Dubh - Ryanair
Cinders and Ashes - Supreme
Blackstairmountain - Arkle
Alfie Spinner - NH Chase
Medermit - Gold Cup

NAPs - Divers and Sunnyhillboy

Divers and Sunnyhillboy double is 135/1 at Boylesports BTW

No no no Medermit for Gold Cup wont stay.Hope you win with everything else but not the grey for the Gold Cup[christ no].

Huntley · 03-03-2012 11:18pm

ipitydafool wrote: »

looked in all likely hood of coasting to a win at course before christmas before that mess with them all running out.

He certainly didn't look like he was coasting to a win, there were 6 or 7 horses in with a chance that day.

I won't be backing the horse but I wouldn't make too much of what Russell said anyway.

hucklebuck · 04-03-2012 12:11am

jimjamcos wrote: »

Davy Russell saying Scotsirish wouldn't get the 3.7 miles in a horsebox hasn't filled me with confidence either!

"No decision from Patrick as to who he rides in Cross Country, Scotsirish has lots of gears, both(Junior) like good ground, Junior gets 2m7, Scots shouldn’t have a problem." - Willie Mullins at preview night on Wednesday

The race is a watching brief for me, you might be on the right horse but the jockey might decide to go his own course!!

Colonel Sanders · 04-03-2012 12:37am

23 out of the last 24 winners over the Cheltenham X country course had previously contested X country races. Uncle Junior was the exception. He got more experience of the course in December's farce.

Trip will be no problem, although they crawl for the first 2/3rds of these races so it's one of the few marathon races I'd chance a suspect stayer.

Has to run off top weight though, although horses carrying big weights have run well here & also in the December handicap. Again I assume the slow pace is a factor again but will have to give 11lbs to Sizing

Probably no bet race but I'd certainly take Uncle Junior in a match with Scotsirish

Nulty · 04-03-2012 1:28am

Glad for the input sting but regardless I hope to see him line up. Its a big ask but he looks like he'll get 3m. Big ask but I really want to see it.

An a similar thread, the most important thing for me with ante post betting is getting a run. Even if my bet is NRNB, even if I take risks backing something that may not turn up under AP rules...I want a run.

the groutch · 04-03-2012 8:16am

back in December before they all took the wrong course, Uncle Junior was toiling while Scotsirish was still hard held, and that was off level weights.
now Scotsirish is getting 3lb off Uncle Junior, so I know who I'd prefer to have my money on.

Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

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