Winter Charts 2011/2012

Conor30

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

From here. http://meteociel.fr/ Click on GFS Europe, then when the page loads up you can choose GEFS ensembles near the top. From there you can go through each individual run.

Thanks, but don't know how others get beyond 180 hours.

Iancar29

Conor30 wrote: »

Thanks, but don't know how others get beyond 180 hours.

Press "Suite"

maquiladora

12Z GFS in FI....nothing interesting there at all I'm afraid!

maquiladora

Quick look at the ensembles, #7 is really nice.

MiNdGaM3

maquiladora wrote: »

Quick look at the ensembles, #7 is really nice.

Finest FI charts so far.
And to accompany those, here's the 2m temp, below 4C across the country at 2pm!



Heavy snowy showers in the south and east

leahyl

Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!

The charts above are nice to look at but are pure fantasy, not going to happen in the real world. Sorry!

irishdub14

Could someone put 'Fantasy' in capitals please?!

thetonynator

leahyl wrote: »

Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!

Very very premature. Wait til you're looking at charts with December dates under 144 hrs and then get excited!

leahyl

thetonynator wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!

Very very premature. Wait til you're looking at charts with December dates under 144 hrs and then get excited!

God dammit!! :-P

Trogdor

A few of tonight's teasers:

Pangea

Is it safe to say there will be a cold spell in the later stage of this month, or are these FI trends still unreliable?

Speak Now

Pangea wrote: »

Is it safe to say there will be a cold spell in the later stage of this month, or are these FI trends still unreliable?

I've seen easterlies let us down inside 72 hour timeframe!
Anthing outside T192 is in low resolution plus then you have the ensembles that the lads have posted above.

Below are the ensembles from todays 12z.
The mean would be one to keep an eye as sometimes it might be just 1 or 2 runs showing snow porn. Keep an eye out for more and more runs showing below -5 T850.

MiNdGaM3

Tonight's 18z ensembles, not much change in the near-term, but cooler after the 19th. Still though, it is the "pub run"!

mickger844posts

Not a great 0Z run. Have to go right out to the far reaches of FI to get anything remotely decent.

Speak Now

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Tonight's 18z ensembles, not much change in the near-term, but cooler after the 19th. Still though, it is the "pub run"!

The mean continues to tumble.........

MiNdGaM3

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

The mean continues to tumble.........

The mild blips around the 10th and 15th have been wiped out and it's now continues cooling from the 13th onwards.

NIALL D

some cold up north and out east :eek:

i know its miles away and probably wont happen , but looks mad !!!

TheInquisitor

A few from today. Deep in FI

WalterMitty

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

The mild blips around the 10th and 15th have been wiped out and it's now continues cooling from the 13th onwards.

is the average of many same time model runs more predictive than any individual model run?

maquiladora

WalterMitty wrote: »

is the average of many same time model runs more predictive than any individual model run?

It can be useful to show trends, or comparing the operational run to the ensemble mean can be useful for seeing if the operational run may have been an outlier and therefore questionable.

MiNdGaM3

Thought I'd put this on here. Very slow change in the mean in FI, but a lot more runs getting down to the -5C 850hPa level today and closer to t0 as well.

tzfrantic

if these charts are fantasy and not real then why put them up

srocliffe

They are real charts, you've misunderstood the term Fantasy Island which just means that they are at the outer range of the models and so subject to change on the next model run.

maquiladora

tzfrantic wrote: »

if these charts are fantasy and not real then why put them up

They are real, just very, very unlikely to turn to reality.

When the weather here isn't very exciting and there is no interesting weather showing up in the near term then some people find it entertaining to pass the time looking at these.

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

They are real, just very, very unlikely to turn to reality.

When the weather here isn't very exciting and there is no interesting weather showing up in the near term then some people find it entertaining to pass the time looking at these.

Would I be correct in saying that the show a trend ?

tzfrantic

if you see a thread is that good the 19 novmeber with each model run comes up cold 90 percent of the time

mickger844posts

Latest runs showing nothing to promote any sort of cold spell in the far reaches of FI.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

mickger844posts wrote: »

Latest runs showing nothing to promote any sort of cold spell in the far reaches of FI.

Oh but a new run coming out now ! :pac:

Speak Now

Not much cold on the 12z

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