Winter Charts 2011/2012

jimmy.d

snow snow snow:cool: http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-gfs-mslp-forecast.htm go up to 348 hr day 15

Musicman2000

jimmy.d wrote: »

snow snow snow:cool: http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-gfs-mslp-forecast.htm go up to 348 hr day 15

Still way in FI Jimmy, could be gone in the next run:)

Ahorseofaman

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Still way in FI Jimmy, could be gone in the next run:)

yet we live in hope

srocliffe

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Still way in FI Jimmy, could be gone in the next run:)

I know it will probably disappear again on the next run, but there have been such slim pickings on the models lately, it's just nice to see anything even remotely resembling a northerly with potential for cold and snow

Musicman2000

Yeah its gone again on the GFS 18Z and replaced by that god dam Euro High again:mad:

srocliffe

What a complete reversal from the previous run. The model "gods" are playing with us

weathermaiden

I think the chart makers on Fantasy Island know about this thread and purposely put out stormy or cold charts way in advance, knowing that we will post them in hope, just to get free publicity. They're onto us! IT'S A PUBLICITY STUNT!! :eek::cool:

Scubadevils

Sure don't the models chop and change before a bigger pattern change....

Musicman2000

Scubadevils wrote: »

Sure don't the models chop and change before a bigger pattern change....

The problem is there is no sign of a change in the teleconnections and upstream, and if thats the case the euro high thats giving us spring like weather could be with us for another month at least

Caff Caff

Mark Vogan has said that there will be a colder climate by 23rd-25th hitting UK.
http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/uk-europe.html

dsmythy

Caff Caff wrote: »

Mark Vogan has said that there will be a colder climate by 23rd-25th hitting UK.
http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/uk-europe.html

He'll have to prove the current models wrong.

oisingeogho

anything exciting in the charts?

TheMilkyPirate

oisingeogho wrote: »

anything exciting in the charts?

Not really no.

On the below chart in the few charts before the high sitting over Ireland seems to be moving NW, Is this a good indication of the start of a blocking pattern?




Also is the below chart showing a split in the polar vortex?

Elmer Blooker

oisingeogho wrote: »

anything exciting in the charts?

Grim, worrying, bleak, hopeless.
Part of me is saying - dont worry it's only mid November but I've seen those euro highs hang around for months before, for example the extremely mild winters of 88-89 and 97-98.

Speak Now

baraca wrote: »

Also is the below chart showing a split in the polar vortex?

Isn't this a chart showing wind speeds

MiNdGaM3

P4 of the GFS is a beaut this morning
Some heavy snow and driving winds for the south?







Then so the rest of the Island doesn't feel left out, they can have this 24hrs later:D

WolfeIRE

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

P4 of the GFS is a beaut this morning
Some heavy snow and driving winds for the south?
Then so the rest of the Island doesn't feel left out, they can have this 24hrs later:D

Rain for southern and eastern coastal areas in the first map. Snow possible further inland but most likely confined to 200-250 metres above sea level. Just not cold enough to see widespread snow.

In the second graph, you would have occasional coastal wintry showers. Ulster, Connacht and west Munster would be most at risk of seeing heavier showers. A frontal system could bring more prolonged sleet near coast and snow further inland in the west. Overall, a chilly day with bright sunshine elsewhere.

By the way, the setup you mentioned have been downgraded in the latest run. The GFS does, however, show things cooling down to average or slightly below average for the time of year during the final day or two of November and the first week of December.

MiNdGaM3

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Rain for southern and eastern coastal areas in the first map. Snow possible further inland but most likely confined to 200-250 metres above sea level. Just not cold enough to see widespread snow.

In the second graph, you would have occasional coastal wintry showers. Ulster, Connacht and west Munster would be most at risk of seeing heavier showers. A frontal system could bring more prolonged sleet near coast and snow further inland in the west. Overall, a chilly day with bright sunshine elsewhere.

By the way, the setup you mentioned have been downgraded in the latest run. The GFS does, however, show things cooling down to average or slightly below average for the time of year during the final day or two of November and the first week of December.

(Keeping in mind that we're discussing the specifics of FI charts) The first chart would have snow for all but the very coastal fringes of the SE. With a continental feed, the dew points would be much lower, allowing for snow, as we saw the end of last November. If it was a north-westerly with uppers of -6 to -8C, you could argue mainly sleet and hail, but not for an easterly imo.

A somewhat similar argument for the 2nd chart. Cold surface temps would already be in place, and with the warm SSTs, and sub -6C uppers, heavy convective snow would be likely.

The 06z operational isn't even fully out yet, so how have you seen it downgrade? (As always, keeping mind that these charts will have disappeared anyway, being in FI)

WolfeIRE

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

The 06z operational isn't even fully out yet, so how have you seen it downgrade? (As always, keeping mind that these charts will have disappeared anyway, being in FI)

Hi MiNdGaM3

The GEFS output for the dates you featured is different right now. I am looking at Meteociel.

Continental effects would not be sufficient on their own to bring snow to Dublin and other coastal parts if you consider the following: the maritime effect of the Irish Sea (warmer than it was this time last year), the fact that cold will not have been established long enough here or in the continent for this air flow to have the desired effect you mentioned, and the uppers are not there for widespread snowfall.

And yes I agree with you. Hypothetical is the word. There appears to be more of a chance of F1 coming to Mondello Park than there is of these FI charts materialising. Although a cooling trend is certainly emerging. December often brings dry and frosty weather.

At least we are talking about snow, even if we disagree

pistolpetes11

Looking at the charts this morning :

Cold Mild Cold Mild Cold Mild Cold Mild , make up your bloody mind please !

WolfeIRE

Still nothing dramatic far out in FI

Su Campu

The 00Z ECMWF has an interesting lee low developing south of Iceland at day 10, which would cause the cold to pivot further southwest than the main cold pool over Scandanavia. It would probably mean a northerly for us a day or so later. The BOM has a very similar setup.

One to watch in the 12Z.

Harps

First decent chart I've seen on ECMWF in a while, upper temps aren't great but a decent chance of some wet snow off that

And just a heads up, the CFS charts are available on meteociel now, accuracy is questionable but they go into extreme FI so I'm sure there'll be a few decent charts for this thread! Showing some nice north easterlies for the first week of December

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=0&carte=0&run=1

thetonynator

Harps wrote: »

First decent chart I've seen on ECMWF in a while, upper temps aren't great but a decent chance of some wet snow off that

And just a heads up, the CFS charts are available on meteociel now, accuracy is questionable but they go into extreme FI so I'm sure there'll be a few decent charts for this thread! Showing some nice north easterlies for the first week of December

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=0&carte=0&run=1

And to start a flurry of far out charts, heres next septembers forecast . . .:P

Musicman2000

Su Campu wrote: »

The 00Z ECMWF has an interesting lee low developing south of Iceland at day 10, which would cause the cold to pivot further southwest than the main cold pool over Scandanavia. It would probably mean a northerly for us a day or so later. The BOM has a very similar setup.

One to watch in the 12Z.

The 12z run is very similar. still wanting to build high pressure towards greenland, not that any of the teelconnections would agree

Iancar29

Imagine that dark blob keeping its energy by the time it got to us!?!.... I never seen that colour on it before! Its doesnt even correlate with a strong low or anything... thoughts people?

pauldry

Iancar29 wrote: »

Imagine that dark blob keeping its energy by the time it got to us!?!.... I never seen that colour on it before! Its doesnt even correlate with a strong low or anything... thoughts people?

The person doing the chart was smoking a cigarette

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Imagine that dark blob keeping its energy by the time it got to us!?!.... I never seen that colour on it before! Its doesnt even correlate with a strong low or anything... thoughts people?

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/57963/atlantic-disturbance-could-bru.asp?partner=accuweather

doccy

Iancar29 wrote: »

Imagine that dark blob keeping its energy by the time it got to us!?!.... I never seen that colour on it before! Its doesnt even correlate with a strong low or anything... thoughts people?

23rd November? Hum, p*ssin rain all day perchance

WalterMitty

pauldry wrote: »

The person doing the chart was smoking a cigarette

Acid rain.