Winter Charts 2011/2012

john mayo 10

look whats coming

leahyl

Things are looking up people:D

bb1234567

john mayo 10 wrote: »

look whats coming

never seen that mch of the northern hemisphere enveloped in lovely dark blue:D

BEASTERLY

Will people please save the chart and then upload it from their computer rather than linking to the image on meteociel etc. which just get updated and it gets very confusing. For example if you look baove this morning those charts showed an nice easterly now just typical atlantic zonality.

TheMilkyPirate

john mayo 10 wrote: »

look whats coming

Yes!!! Boring normality!

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

Yes!!! Boring normality!

Earlier on that showed an easterly. Oh how wished people would stop just linking charts :mad:

Harps

Here we are



Nothing spectacular on that chart from our point of view but its more the fact that there's a high over Greenland and an easterly extending as far as Newfoundland!

A largely similar set up on the 12z GFS



Gone again now but its the first sign of a proper cold spell at least

Edit: Turns out its not gone! Was looking at the 6z thinking it was the 12z, a high building to our north around the 12th hopefully

MiNdGaM3

It's a game of spot the difference!
FI, 18th November this year


18th November last year


Ok, there are a fair few differences, but a similar general set-up:pac:

MiNdGaM3

Here's another nice one!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

So close !

Conor30

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Here's another nice one!

What website do you get those charts from?

MiNdGaM3

Conor30 wrote: »

What website do you get those charts from?

From here. http://meteociel.fr/ Click on GFS Europe, then when the page loads up you can choose GEFS ensembles near the top. From there you can go through each individual run.

mickger844posts

Encouraging signs. Hope its the start of a trend.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

This is from the 0Z, lovely

BEASTERLY

A trend emerging?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Could be, 06z has cold but not as bad

mickger844posts

t|nt|n wrote: »

Could be, 06z has cold but not as bad

Downgrade on the 06z run but we all know that could change again on the 12z. The joys of model watching this time of year

Tom Cruises Left Nut

mickger844posts wrote: »

Downgrade on the 06z run but we all know that could change again on the 12z. The joys of model watching this time of year

Its true, now I have to find something to fill the time between model runs ! haha :pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Still trying to hang onto the cold

Musicman2000

Still very littel on thoese charts, hopefully we will see a major change in the next week or so

thetonynator

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Still very littel on thoese charts, hopefully we will see a major change in the next week or so

In fairness, its a big change, the GFS is showing a trend of a cold outbreak towards the end of the month. The details may change with every run, but the trend is there. Up til now we've been seeing atlantic zonality the whole way out.

Musicman2000

thetonynator wrote: »

In fairness, its a big change, the GFS is showing a trend of a cold outbreak towards the end of the month. The details may change with every run, but the trend is there. Up til now we've been seeing atlantic zonality the whole way out.

True your right about the trend has being showing a lot, would be nice to see a lot deeper cold over europe, but early days yet

thetonynator

Musicman2000 wrote: »

True your right about the trend has being showing a lot, would be nice to see a lot deeper cold over europe, but early days yet

Current forecasts are putting a lot of snow into western russia and maybe parts of eastern europe over the next week, so hopefully we'll have a decent cold pool there to tap into.

Musicman2000

This was posted over in Netweather its still low res ECMFW, but might be a sign:) most of us can only see out the 240+

Morning all...

Well I hold good news, well depending on your terminology of good news that is. I've looked at the latest EC 32 day info this morning and the signal for a pattern change later in November and into early December is still there and in a big way!

Up to the middle of month high pressure persists to the E and this maintains relatively mild conditions, driest in the E, wettest in the W etc. However, beyond mid-month what the model is signalling is for high pressure to migrate and there is then the development of a +ve pressure anom to the N or NW of the UK during the final week of November and into early December, as low pressure becomes dominant to the S. In essence the final week of the 32 day forecast is signalling a pattern similar to that of last year with E or NE'lies across the UK and there is a dramatic drop in temperature forecast during the final quarter of the forecast period.

Clearly I put emphasis on this model signalling a potential pattern change this time last week and whilst any longer term model is open to change, I do have quite a decent liking to this model as it has picked up trends at times throughout this year weeks in advance. Clearly this post will be fascinating to read and come back to in around 3 weeks time to see what is actually on the horizon for the end of November, but IF this model is picking up this pattern change correctly then it would seem that another dramatic turn-around to something far more wintry is likely towards the end of November onwards...

Time will tell!...

Matt.
Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
Weather Commerce Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81

NIALL D

sounds interesting !!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hurry..... up.... next.... model.... run

I think I am addicted

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its kinda gone

MiNdGaM3

Probably the largest number of cool/cold charts I've seen in a single run this year, here are a few.

Iancar29

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Probably the largest number of cool/cold charts I've seen in a single run this year, here are a few.

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:....* HAPPY FEELING INSIDE! *

maquiladora

Looking at the 06Z GFS ensembles, the average 850 temp drops down closer to the 0 degree mark after the middle of the month or so.

So there are hints there in FI of a gradual change on the cards but nothing very dramatic or consistent yet.

Early days anyway.