Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

Musicman2000

jo06555 wrote: »

So where will the snow be then if forecasts say their will be across the south , i know we are a coastal county does it mean snow will fall inland further i get so confused with all the forecasts saying south east but meaning south west or vica-versa :rolleyes:

As said above Waterford will get very littel if any snow out of this, Yes further inland will from Kilkenny up

wurzlitzer

where is the snow?

From a county that experiences snow a lot....and I lived in a counrtry that experienced a lot of snow
In dublin now and it looks like, if i was a betting person
there will be no snow this weekend in this part of the country me speculates
I can feel it in my bones, its just too mild

and it is only speculation

Min

So far upto 1pm on Friday - the GFS has snow inland but rain around the coasts.

Mayo_Boy

Mayo aernt gonna get any fluppit

Min

For Pangea.... the GFS 18z has the snow not really reaching Donegal.

For the rest of the country and if you like snow and are away from coasts I would say it is a big upgrade.

WolfeIRE

ninebeanrows

GFS 18z projects a substantial snow event for areas in Ireland away from Southern and Eastern fringes. Midland regions could recieve over 24 hours of falling snow, moderate to heavy at times, 20-30cm of snow could not be ruled out in parts. Even eastern regions could see a brief period of snow to begin early Friday morning before turning to sleet and rain and again turning to snow as it clears early Saturdya morning.

Stay in touch to forecasts.

Unfortunately the onshore breeze in the east will put pay to any substantial chance of lying snow.

kakee

Does anyone think we will get snow in Tipp town area this weekend. I have seen no snow since early December and I miss it.

fr wishy washy

Is West Wicklow Blessington in the firing line?

danni2

Im getting quite excited now, looking good for the midlands at the moment:)

thetonynator

kakee wrote: »

Does anyone think we will get snow in Tipp town area this weekend. I have seen no snow since early December and I miss it.

Snow to start with probably turning to sleet or rain.

fr wishy washy wrote: »

Is West Wicklow Blessington in the firing line?

Same likelihood as above, with snow lasting longer probably.

ninebeanrows

Looks like we are heading back to mild weather with a bang after this brief cold snap!

Lashing rain and 12c in 7 days time!

Pangea

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like we are heading back to mild weather with a bang after this brief cold snap!

Lashing rain and 12c in 7 days time!

Frozen rivers and snow blizzards in 17 days time :pac:

Min wrote: »

For Pangea.... the GFS 18z has the snow not really reaching Donegal.

For the rest of the country and if you like snow and are away from coasts I would say it is a big upgrade.

Yeah I dont have a hope of getting anything from that southern front by the looks of things. Il have the kettle boiled for your visit on friday then :pac:

fr wishy washy

Its like being on a rollercoaster reading the posts going from one extreme to the other.

ninebeanrows

Pangea wrote: »

Frozen rivers and snow blizzards in 17 days time :pac:


Yeah I dont have a hope of getting anything from that southern front by the looks of things. Il have the kettle boiled for your visit on friday then :pac:

Looks like would take some way to get there after we get into the zonal pattern, the Polar Vortex sets up shop in the Arctic and we are back to your typical mild winter pattern of the middle 2000's, but who knows.

fizzycyst

Lashing rain and 12c in 7 days time!

booooooo:(

Frozen rivers and snow blizzards in 17 days time

yayeeee:D

I hope my contribution tonight has helped :P

Min

Pangea wrote: »

Frozen rivers and snow blizzards in 17 days time :pac:


Yeah I dont have a hope of getting anything from that southern front by the looks of things. Il have the kettle boiled for your visit on friday then :pac:

lol, one problem, the GFS18z also has snow showers for Donegal for Saturday, one cannot win...

Knowing a mild spell is coming so I don't mind, plus we won't be living in Finland like we did in December :pac:

mumo3

so is dublin in or out of the weekend snow?

planning a trip to the zoo sat before schools go back Monday :eek:

John.Icy

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like would take some way to get there after we get into the zonal pattern, the Polar Vortex sets up shop in the Arctic and we are back to your typical mild winter pattern of the middle 2000's, but who knows.

I's not true Zonal though WC, it's more of a mobile pattern, so it'll be easier to break away from it. Once the initial low clears off after around five days, there dosen't look like being several other lows in the wings, so I see heights rising towards greenland, or Heights pushing into Scandinavia.

WolfeIRE

mumo3 wrote: »

so is dublin in or out of the weekend snow?

planning a trip to the zoo sat before schools go back Monday :eek:

if not snow piddling rain. Neither condusive to feeding the baby pandas

NIALL D

thetonynator wrote: »

Snow to start with probably turning to sleet or rain.




Same likelihood as above, with snow lasting longer probably.

but if you were 100 - 200 metres above sea level would you have a better chance of snow altogether yeah ???? an staying as snow rather than turning to rain ...?

mumo3

rain i can deal with well used to that.. its slippen around the zoo like bambi on ice i dont fancy

p.s dublin zoo are doing half price tickets for adults and kids until the 9th jan;)

pistolpetes11

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like would take some way to get there after we get into the zonal pattern, the Polar Vortex sets up shop in the Arctic and we are back to your typical mild winter pattern of the middle 2000's, but who knows.

MT was saying to expect a mild couple of days 5-7 then a major swing back to the cold .

Do u think the zonal activity could stop this happening ?

nacho libre

John.Icy wrote: »

I's not true Zonal though WC, it's more of a mobile pattern, so it'll be easier to break away from it. Once the initial low clears off after around five days, there dosen't look like being several other lows in the wings, so I see heights rising towards greenland, or Heights pushing into Scandinavia.

yes. it's not as if there'll be a succession of lows pushing up all the way to Scandanavia. If it must be mild for five - six days so be it, let min enjoy his few days of milder weather before we get transported to Lapland once again:p

Min

nacho libre wrote: »

yes. it's not as if there'll be a succession of lows pushing up all the way to Scandanavia. If it must be mild for five - six day so be it, let min enjoy his few days of milder weather before we get transported to Lapland once again:p

Suits me

ffarrell7

nacho libre wrote: »

yes. it's not as if there'll be a succession of lows pushing up all the way to Scandanavia. If it must be mild for five - six day so be it, let min enjoy his few days of milder weather before we get transported to Lapland once again:p

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST. :D:D

pistolpetes11

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST. :D:D

You love sticking into them folks down south, I'm sure there day will come !

Speak Now

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST. :D:D

Brilliant yer back.

M.T. Cranium

Just to clear up what I was thinking about the mild spell next week, would expect above normal temperatures for 5-7 days (not at days 5-7). The current 18z GFS looks plausible on the whole with a couple of strong lows whipping past to the north around Tuesday night and Friday-Saturday (14th-15th) then likely a return to blocking through the period 17th-20th which could bring some snow potential back as these are high index storminess dates. I don't wish to over-refine the details as blocking can set up difficult challenges for any model 10-15 days out, but the larger scale picture would likely be a gradual change from very mild to very cold through late January and some prolonged periods of blocking in February.

It's interesting to note that in January 1947 a similar warming event happened on 16th January then the very cold period began around 21st January. The winter to that point had been rather cold although not as cold as our past December.

As to the Friday storm potential, I have not seen anything on 12z or 18z runs that looks substantially different, the most likely outcome there is a mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain much as everyone on this thread has been discussing and the exact details would probably be difficult to forecast until Thursday night, but the main question (for me at least) for the morning forecast will be snow potential in the inland southeast, and a bit further north into the mid-west region. This is the kind of storm that can keep changing phase and just drop a big sloppy mess of wet snow, sleet and other stuff nobody likes. The uppers are very marginal but that brings in heavier moisture content, so ... with any change in the thermal profile there could be an upgrade to snowfall amounts, but at the same time, this could just turn into a sleet and rain storm for all but the highest inhabited elevations (it will almost definitely drop 20-30 cms on summits).

Cocoon

Thats grand, no need to put the snow tyres back on so...