Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

John.Icy

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Funny.

Also, suprised Met put out the warning, considering Jean couldn't spare five seconds to actually talk about it

Villain

John.Icy wrote: »

Funny.

Also, suprised Met put out the warning, considering Jean couldn't spare five seconds to actually talk about it

MET have changed their forecast now, anyone that follows weather will know forecasts change as we get closer to the event especially in a scenario where small movements make such a difference.

MET Eireann can't win here IMO either they forecast all rain and people complain or they forecast a risk of snow and complain. It's not an exact science and peoples opinion will differ including the forecasters in MET Eireann.

Pangea

Pretty good forecast from Jean for us in the North west, snow mentioned many times. Starting tomorrow morning , personally I am not expecting much if anything but its still nice to hear it from the horses mouth.

Edit:See the thread title hasnt been changed yet , no suprises there lol

Met Eireann should have known better.
This whole event smelt of rain to me away from high ground and in the largely populated areas of the East West and south.
As I said earlier,my reasoning is no surface cold and a marine layer being advected in from the irish and celtic sea.
It's not as if when the winds caused by this disturbance go east that they will be smelling of danish roses or anything..
It's a faux easterly and worse than that a mild one.
Southerly approaching fronts are usually hard set to bring snow with surface cold,never mind without it.
This front looks aswell like it's going to push warmer uppers ahead of it.

No contest.

I'm not saying it won't snow but it's 70:30 against on lower ground anyway especially south of inland north Leinster and inland north connaught

Like all of these threads in marginal situations the optimism on page one soon wanes when reality bites.

Iancar29

Pangea wrote: »

Pretty good forecast from Jean for us in the North west, snow mentioned many times. Starting tomorrow morning , personally I am not expecting much if anything but its still nice to hear it from the horses mouth.

Edit:See the thread title hasnt been changed yet , no suprises there lol

It should be changed to North at Risk... rain... EVERWHERE else...

200motels

I think down here it's going to be rain without doubti, maybe on higher ground it might be a snow event.

BEASTERLY

200motels wrote: »

I think down here it's going to be rain without doubti, maybe on higher ground it might be a snow event.

I agree, it is very similar to the event of 30th Dec 2009, heavy rain caused a lot of flooding at low levels but was a MAJOR snow event in mountainous areas of the South and East.

JanuarySnowstor

My punt for Friday night / Sat is for snow in a line from Shannon to Kilkenny northwards with lucky spots getting several cm's.
The very South will miss out but could well see some fun on Sunday morning as will most of the West and North.
Generally though not a patch on what we got used to last month

arctictree

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I agree, it is very similar to the event of 30th Dec 2009, heavy rain caused a lot of flooding at low levels but was a MAJOR snow event in mountainous areas of the South and East.

Yes, remember that. This could be a major snow event in my area. But a few miles away could just be heavy rain. We do best in these marginal situations. A few weeks ago, coastal areas got a dumping while we got very little.

BEASTERLY

arctictree wrote: »

Yes, remember that. This could be a major snow event in my area. But a few miles away could just be heavy rain. We do best in these marginal situations. A few weeks ago, coastal areas got a dumping while we got very little.

Try getting stuck at 800m with the storm at full force, now that was fun!!!! Actually no it was horrible, esp when your map decides to take flight!:o

pauldry

Think that some parts of inland locations will see some snow falling from the sky at least especially at night and tomorrow morning (early) there will certainly be a few snowy outbreaks in Ulster. Then its back to rain till Friday when there may be a renewed risk but this could miss us altogether too.

Think these forecasts are more in hope now rather than the definite snowy forecasts of December with its -15c for company.

ninebeanrows

ECM was the first time i said, hey maybe this could happen.

18z GFS might back this up.

I do think there will be snow inland and in the northwest especially.

However here in Dublin, as we have experienced the Irish sea rules all! Even during the best of situations it modifies things alot.

So i would need some serious charts before i'd get excited for here, but inland/ Midlands/ NW and north, id say fair chance.

cherryghost

18Z has Friday at an almost non event

darkman2

Im sticking to my guns that there will be snow on coasts and inland on Friday. 18z GFS backs this up again bringiing a band of moderate or heavy snow Northward which might not even turn to rain - it could pull out into the Irish sea leaving a generous covering as it will be falling on very cold surfaces. Friday will be a bitterly cold day.

ninebeanrows

cherryghost wrote: »

18Z has Friday at an almost non event

Don't think so, looking at the temps it proggs for midday the Saturday it predicts lying snow for a decent portion of the country. Best run yet IMO.

cherryghost

Weathercheck wrote: »

Don't think so, looking at the temps it proggs for midday the Saturday it predicts lying snow for a decent portion of the country. Best run yet IMO.

18Z is showing the southerly push not making even halfway



Cold air pushing down further and stopping any southerly fronts moving into the weekeend

Birroc

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Try getting stuck at 800m with the storm at full force, now that was fun!!!! Actually no it was horrible, esp when your map decides to take flight!:o

Where were you climbing and what did you do without the map?

fr wishy washy

Starting to get really windy here in Blessington and its raining atm.

mike65

Just watched the UK forecast on BBC News - mild/cold/mild/cold not sure where the front will meet the cold on Friday or how much snow might result. Quality.

WolfeIRE

just to let you all know that MT is on Newstalk at 7.15am on Breakfast talking about the remainder of the winter.

JanuarySnowstor

WolfeIRE wrote: »

just to let you all know that MT is on Newstalk at 7.15am on Breakfast talking about the remainder of the winter.

Snowdrifts and hurricanes off the Cork coast no doubt!!

Only being giddy MT:D:D

JanuarySnowstor

By the way the 18z has edged everything further South at the weekend.
Going on the recent trends so far this Winter I would think there is a good chance now that the ppn will remain offshore altogether which of course improves our chances of a more widespread snow event on Sat night

Either way it's drip drip drip all the way from Tuesday

John.Icy

I think that the front could end up remaning offshore and away from us. A few preturbations last night showed the low missing us completely, allowing colder air to stay around for longer. But it's still all up in the air, and will be changing right up to a few hours before the event. It should be preceeding by some wet snow in places, but should be short lived...except for inland higher area's and Northern and western parts.

Also, the GFS operational is at the top end of the 850 temps for this event, with many many runs having it colder for friday into Saturday.

BEASTERLY

Birroc wrote: »

Where were you climbing and what did you do without the map?

MT Leinster(not exactly 800m), map blew away on the summit and we found our way with a GPS with co-ordinates goten from somebody on the ground over the phone. Not fun stuff!

Speak Now

WolfeIRE wrote: »

just to let you all know that MT is on Newstalk at 7.15am on Breakfast talking about the remainder of the winter.

Please let it not be Chris O'Donoghue :rolleyes:

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

MT Leinster(not exactly 800m), map blew away on the summit and we found our way with a GPS with co-ordinates goten from somebody on the ground over the phone. Not fun stuff!

could you not just have walked down the rte road???

Redsunset

Well according to 18z run im still sticking with my original forecast and there will be BLOOD SNOW.:D

Initial snow away from southern coasts very early on come early hours of Friday.Spreading north.Snow should fall to low levels for a time before yucky mild sector creeps north so give only high ground continous snow with perhaps blizzard conditions.Rain should eventually enter equation to low lying level around mid morning or noon.Sleet and snow continuing the higher up you blessed.

Cantona's Collars

thetonynator wrote: »

could you not just have walked down the rte road???

Thought that myself-too much Bear Grylls:D

BEASTERLY

thetonynator wrote: »

could you not just have walked down the rte road???

The car was at the south side of the mountain and light wasn't plentiful. The number one error was going up in that weather in the first place, plus we couldn't see the road due zero visibility and drifts up to ten feet. Roads can do a nice vanishing act

Cantona's Collars

Slightly ot-it's been snowing in Vegas (they got as much as Cork):)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1343943/Las-Vegas-hit-flurries-winter-storms-cut-Californian-highway.html