Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

ffarrell7

NIALL D wrote: »

im not to bothered jus as long as dublin doesnt get snow , sick of listening to them :P hopefully the airport wont be affected :rolleyes:

actually it would be super if jus all the south , southeast , and southwest areas got snow jus for once , with decent amounts..

Wet weather in the South, South east and south west but snow further north and East:D:D:D why does Dublin always seem to get the brunt of it???

Big Daddy Cool

now i take the weather on TV3 with a huge pinch of salt but this morning they said nothing much about snow tomorrow, just showery outbreaks at times and not a whole lot really.

Vudgie

I think we now have all eventualities covered in this thread!!! The overriding message appears to be that this will be a marginal event for many and could actually be enjoyable given that very few will see the conditions that made December quite difficult.

My car was reading 4.5 degrees this morning in Dublin 2, perhaps we will see a dramatic drop in temperatures by tomorrow morning but the car was not even iced this morning in D16.

MET Eireann have stuck to their guns this week (apart from removing their predicition of 5 - 10cm of snow) and the Eagle appeared pretty confident on Newstalk this morning.

Deep Easterly

HIRLAM 24th prep forecast from 0300hrs tomorrow morning:




Any snow is most likely on the northern edge of the main rain band although intensity induced snow further south cannot be ruled out either.



Image source: yr.no

irish1967

So near but yet so far

snaps

Brianmeath wrote: »

Will this snow stay on the ground for long?

or will it just snow then thaw?

What snow where? This snow event is going to be extremely marginal anywhere. The coasts will not see snow, especially the south east and east coast as the easterly flow coming in will be only from the UK, which is mild. Its not an easterly all the way from scandinavia.

Only places that will see snow, will be inland and high ground.

Yesterday here was supposed to be cold, it got into double figures. As far as i am concerend its not a cold spell at all, just a near normal January day/period.

Deep Easterly

snaps wrote: »

Yesterday here was supposed to be cold, it got into double figures. As far as i am concerend its not a cold spell at all, just a near normal January day/period.

You sure about that Snaps? I only live up the road from you and only got 6.6c max yesterday. Although with you right beside the lakes maybe this had an bearing on your local temps?

Claremorris max temp yesterday 7.1c:

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

No double figures at any synoptic station yesterday.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You sure about that Snaps? I only live up the road from you and only got 6.6c max yesterday. Although with you right beside the lakes maybe this had an bearing on your local temps?

Claremorris max temp yesterday 7.1c:

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

No double figures at any synoptic station yesterday.

A few of the private stations got to 9 and 10c yesterday.
I don't think you could call yesterday cold,cool yes,not cold.
Thats why this rain to snow to rain to snow event is very marginal.
For a start it's entirely possible that high cloud ahead of it will prevent surface air temps falling.
I'd agree its a huge ask for snow relying only on upper air of -6 or -8 at 5000ft.I suspect it will happen well inland and on high ground above say 450ft- we'll see.
Anything more looks like a bonus

snaps

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You sure about that Snaps? I only live up the road from you and only got 6.6c max yesterday. Although with you right beside the lakes maybe this had an bearing on your local temps?

Claremorris max temp yesterday 7.1c:

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

No double figures at any synoptic station yesterday.

yesterday afternoon my car showed 10.5c, my back garden station recorded a high of 9.8c. Saying that its chilly this morning -2c currently.

irish1967

Met.ie have been forecasting "wintry showers" on N NW coasts for the last few days and they have actually turned out to be "showers in the winter". Not a sniff of snow except on the mountains. I have a feeling that tomorrows snow event will follow the same path. I honestly think that in a 'normal winter' Met.ie would have called this differently to such an extent that it hardly merits mentioning.
Phrases that we will see on this thread tomorrow will probably include.
"Heavy rain here after 5 minutes of sleet"
"Woohoo Heavy Snow.. no wait... rain now"

Wish I was wrong but I think we have a non event on our hands.

(No sources.. just a feeling)

thomasj

It's the first time in a couple of days I have seen frost around here

Don't get me wrong it's minimal, car windows iced over, frost in grass, some frost patches here or there, nowhere near as bad as the previous cold spells, it's there though!

Rebelbrowser

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Wet weather in the South, South east and south west but snow further north and East:D:D:D why does Dublin always seem to get the brunt of it???

Coz its the superest, duperest place in the whole wide world of course!

overnight low at my station here in Arklow of -3.4c which is definitely cold
currently -0.8c
theres a mighty frost blanket on the ground.

Min

Met Eireann at 7:55am - John Eagleton said precipitation will get into the very south tonight and it is likely to fall as snow with winds turning north easterly, most of tomorrow will be dry but snow over Munster during the afternoon and it will get into Leinster during the evening time. Ulster and Connacht will not be affected nor the north of Leinster. Lying snow for the south and east of the country.

ffarrell7

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Wet weather in the South, South east and south west but snow further north and East:D:D:D why does Dublin always seem to get the brunt of it???

I live in the East and I'm not in Dublin,but from what people told me who live in Dublin in the week and come here for the weekend or commute,we had a lot more snow than in Dublin in the last cold spell so that kind of discounts your brunt of it statement...

Rebelbrowser

Just in terms of people saying its not cold, firstly I think it feels very cold and we had a good frost here this morning. More scientifically don't all the models on the 0z run (waiting on 6z run) show a big plunge of cold air (-4 to -8 uppers) coming from the north during today covering virtually all of the country by the time the front arrives?

Min

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Wet weather in the South, South east and south west but snow further north and East:D:D:D why does Dublin always seem to get the brunt of it???

Dublin does get the brunt of bad reporting.

Where were your 7ft high drifts that they got in Cavan last winter, in the east - Wicklow is the natural snow capital for many reasons.

Min

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just in terms of people saying its not cold, firstly I think it feels very cold and we had a good frost here this morning. More scientifically don't all the models on the 0z run (waiting on 6z run) show a big plunge of cold air (-4 to -8 uppers) coming from the north during today covering virtually all of the country by the time the front arrives?

Met Eireann this morning gave snow right on the south coast for tonight. It doesn't look like the system will make it half way up the country going by them this morning. It will be a slow progression thing.
Lying snow even at lower elevations too was another weather prediction they gave.

downwiththatsor

Thanks Deep, is this a "paid for" hirlam or do you have a link for it?
Cheers

Just saw the source now

irish1967

Heavy snow fall outside the Greater Dublin Area


Heavy Snow in Dublin

thomasj

I'll well believe Cavan got it bad given it's location

Parts of Dublin got it bad depending where you were and likewise with Wicklow, I remember people in bray and greystones complaining of being in the isle of man shadow, while other areas reporting record snowfall levels.

Min

irish1967 wrote: »

Met.ie have been forecasting "wintry showers" on N NW coasts for the last few days and they have actually turned out to be "showers in the winter". Not a sniff of snow except on the mountains. I have a feeling that tomorrows snow event will follow the same path. I honestly think that in a 'normal winter' Met.ie would have called this differently to such an extent that it hardly merits mentioning.
Phrases that we will see on this thread tomorrow will probably include.
"Heavy rain here after 5 minutes of sleet"
"Woohoo Heavy Snow.. no wait... rain now"

Wish I was wrong but I think we have a non event on our hands.

(No sources.. just a feeling)

It actually reminds me of snow we got in January 1991 I think it was, we were back to school after Christmas, Met Eireann had predicted a rain belt to move up from the south west but it could be preceded by sleet and snow before turning to rain, it snowed alright and not a sign of any rain or sleet.
We got over a half foot of snow then and the school had to send us home early. Needless to say it was lovely snow and it lasted for a week or more.

That would have been February of 1991 min, in a spell starting around valentines day.

The latest bbc news 24 graphics has no snow over Ireland,just rain over south munster which slides eastward whilst some rain slides westward from wales into Dublin.
The latest nae output I presume with forecaster modification.

Vudgie

irish1967 wrote: »

Heavy snow fall outside the Greater Dublin Area
Heavy Snow in Dublin

Using Grafton Street as your example of 'Heavy Snow in Dublin' is selective, which is being kind. We had well over a foot of snow twice in December in Dublin 16.

aurora 527

Blanket of frost here also this morning.
Current temp Waterford.. -0.7
Dp.. -1.3

Although i would love to see snow if i put my sensible hat on :rolleyes:
i can't see it happening. Think we will only see Rain!!

thomasj

thomasj wrote: »

I'll well believe Cavan got it bad given it's location

Parts of Dublin got it bad depending where you were and likewise with Wicklow, I remember people in bray and greystones complaining of being in the isle of man shadow, while other areas reporting record snowfall levels.

Southeast wicklow got a hard hit as did inland south Dublin to higher elevations especially.
Below is a picture of me clearing the snow here 2 days before Xmas.
A further 3 inches fell after we cleared it.Apologies about the quality,it's off my phone.
The location is Arklow 2 miles from the sea and the town actually got more.



Whats coming is a baby in comparison I think that may even fall as rain with me.

Rebelbrowser

Deleted User wrote: »

Whats coming is a baby in comparison I think that may even fall as rain with me.

BB, just interested as you clearly know your onions, am I right in saying that all the models on the 0z run (waiting on 6z run) show a big plunge of cold air (-4 to -8 uppers) coming from the north during today covering virtually all of the country by the time the front arrives - or am I totally misreading them? I appreciate that's a different question from whether it'll snow tomorrow but it would help explain to the very sceptical why there is a (small) chance it might......

ffarrell7

Min wrote: »

Dublin does get the brunt of bad reporting.

Where were your 7ft high drifts that they got in Cavan last winter, in the east - Wicklow is the natural snow capital for many reasons.

West Dublin, South Dublin got massive amounts of snow as did Dublin airport. 150,000 tons being cleared in one night suggests what to you?? And the Dublin suburbs have had heavy snowfall for the past three winters. Maybe not on the coast but certainly a few kilometers away from it and in West and South Dublin. Not to mention the Dublin mountains that gets the highest snowfall in Ireland and more especially higher up in the Wicklow mountains - perfect geographic poisition for following reasons. 1. only about 15-20 kilometers from the sea hence lots of precipitation. 2. in the East do away from the milder south.south-west influence of gulf stream 3.high mountians by Irish standards - Lugnaquilla is 931 metres which is over 3,054 feet. So Kilkenny head these are the facts.... Kilkenny rarely gets snow end of story.:):):)

BEASTERLY

Vudgie wrote: »

Using Grafton Street as your example of 'Heavy Snow in Dublin' is selective, which is being kind. We had well over a foot of snow twice in December in Dublin 16.

The thing is that no matter how bad it gets in Dublin or any other urban area is that your always able to walk to a shop. For us country folk it's not that easy. Never mind the fact that in the city a lot of the roads are kept clear. While here the county council thinks it's ok to leave a foot of snow on the N25, wasters!

pistolpetes11

ffarrell7 wrote: »

West Dublin, South Dublin got massive amounts of snow as did Dublin airport. 150,000 tons being cleared in one night suggests what to you?? And the Dublin suburbs have had heavy snowfall for the past three winters. Maybe not on the coast but certainly a few kilometers away from it and in West and South Dublin. Not to mention the Dublin mountains that gets the highest snowfall in Ireland and more especially higher up in the Wicklow mountains - perfect geographic poisition for following reasons. 1. only about 15-20 kilometers from the sea hence lots of precipitation. 2. in the East do away from the milder south.south-west influence of gulf stream 3.high mountians by Irish standards - Lugnaquilla is 931 metres which is over 3,054 feet. So Kilkenny head these are the facts.... Kilkenny rarely gets snow end of story.:):):)

I think Min lives on a Mountain in Kilkenny, where he attends to his flock , so he is sick of the sight of the snow ,

Anyway its not a mines bigger than yours competition , chill out