Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The car was at the south side of the mountain and light wasn't plentiful. The number one error was going up in that weather in the first place, plus we couldn't see the road due zero visibility and drifts up to ten feet. Roads can do a nice vanishing act

good point, i've never been up there in more than a few inches of snow. and getting down to the car could have been a serious problem!!!

John.Icy

On the 18z ensembles, there's roughly 5 runs that either have the low coming no-where near us, with around two which have the smallest blob of precip on the South coast, the number is increasing.

Pangea

Never seen ME have an update this late , an interesting read for you southerners.

05 January 2011 00:45

Today

Cold and breezy overnight. Rain and sleet at first, but this dying out. Scattered wintry showers developing mainly over Ulster, with a little snow in places, where some will turn heavy and possibly thundery. Lowest temperatures of -2 to plus 2 degrees, with frost under cloud breaks and some icy patches.


Tomorrow

Cold and breezy on Wednesday with early frost clearing. Some showery rain or sleet in the morning and early afternoon, with a little snow on northern hills early on. But drier later with just scattered rain or hail showers. Highs of 3 to 7 degrees in the early afternoon, in a fresh and gusty west to northwest wind.

Outlook

General : It will stay cold right up to and over the weekend with frosty nights. Some wintry showers at times too, with a risk of some more prolonged and more widespread snow during Friday and Friday night. Details : Very cold overnight Thursday night with a widespread sharp to severe frost, icy roads and some pockets of fog. A few hail, sleet or snow showers also along parts of the north and northwest coasts. Lowest temperatures zero to -4 or -5 C., coldest over Ulster. But around dawn or so, a spell of wet and windy weather will develop along the south coast. There is some uncertainty re the exact movement and track of this system. But present indications suggest that this will move up over much of Munster and Leinster during the day, falling as sleet or snow in many places as it goes. This especially so on high ground, but some is likely at lower levels too. In the meantime, it should turn to rain over south Munster and south Leinster. Much of Connacht and Ulster should hold off dry and cold, apart from the odd wintry flurry, until nightfall. Sleet and snow is likely over north Leinster, north Munster early in the night and over parts of Ulster and Connacht for much of the night, before clearing northwards later in the night. This system has the potential to be disruptive and it is being closely monitored. More detailed forecasts will issue when new information becomes available. The weekend outlook is for the weather to stay cold, with hard frosts at night and some icy roads. There will be some dry, bright or clear weather at times, but periods of showers also, some of hail, sleet and with hill snow also. Highs by day plus 2 to plus 6 C., with lows at night in the range zero to -5 C. Breezy at times too with fresh and gusty westerly winds.

http://met.ie/forecasts/

Supercell

I'm going for sleet and wet snow in Dublin CC with slushy mess. West Dublin like Lucan , Talafornia might get 10 cm

TheMilkyPirate

what exactly would it take for this system to bring widespread snow and disruption? is it even possible? I ask cause haven't really been following the forum the last week due to lack of computer. on my phone so can't look at models either

Flyer1

Absolutely non event perhaps :rolleyes:

John.Icy

baraca wrote: »

what exactly would it take for this system to bring widespread snow and disruption? is it even possible? I ask cause haven't really been following the forum the last week due to lack of computer. on my phone so can't look at models either

A miracle :P

This type of setup would need a much colder landmass to bring disruption, if this struck during December, it could have been perfect, but for now, were not cold enough.

John.Icy

GEM is the pick of the bunch this morning, pity we can't see it's precip charts for it as uppers don't really go above -3 for the most part, lower further inland. Though the frontal stuff wouldn't go too far north as the centre of the LP stays abit away to the south, leading to us hanging onto our colder uppers. But, any frontal stuff that would arrive, would fall as wet snow further inland from the south, and higher up and further north, for the duration of the event, which could only be a few hours with the Low further south.

GFS, well, the front should be precedded by some sleet at wet snow, to most levels I think, except the far south coastal parts. However GFS wants to take the LP right up s it will turn to rain for many, barring the very northern most parts of the band, towards Connaught and Ulster. Though there is a chance that as colder air undercuts as the front moves away, that precip could turn back wintry for a brief while.

jarvis

In Dundalk and we just had a flurry of dead blackbirds for a few minutes there. Looks to be heading south!!!!

Sorry, couldn't resist...... Carry on

cherryghost

06Z has the system upgraded somewhat, guaranteeing everywhere some snow, for a short while at least.

Inland from Limerick northwards should have some accumulated snow, but I'm more interested in Saturdays development, as the northerlies continue to push southwards, stopping Fridays low in its path, before being shoved eastwards, meaning further accumulation of snow in the midlands, east, north and northwest very much a possibility

Rebelbrowser

Again, to the untrained eye, the 6z GFS and UKMO both suggest Friday Saturday will provide snow at the front and the back (with rain in the middle) of the front. Looks a lot less marginal too. A snow only event (with lots of precipitation) is not out of the question if things change slightly.

I think we deserve this for Darkman2's enthusiasm alone!

darkman2

I don't know about that but atm I think this will be disruptive for the Southern part of Ulster, West Connaught, North Leinster and North Munster. Over South Leinster and South Munster snow on Friday morning will turn to rain in the Southeast on Friday afternoon. In North Ulster and North Connaught precipitation amounts will generally be less and elsewhere it may stay completely dry but cold. This rain should extend as far North as about Meath by Friday evening (but even here it could stay as snow all day) and that is pretty much the forcast for Dublin - snow in the morning, into the afternoon with a good chance of rain by evening but also a risk of continued snowfall. It depends on how the higher resolution models which will have to take over from now on for proper analysis see this developing. There will still be divergences in the models into tomorrow.

Basically alot of the country is going to see heavy snowfall and for Dublin I would neither be expecting a hassle free journey to work nor a hassle free journey home!

cherryghost

darkman2 wrote: »

I don't know about that but atm I think this will be disruptive for the Southern part of Ulster, West Connaught, North Leinster and North Munster. Over South Leinster and South Munster snow on Friday morning will turn to rain in the Southeast on Friday afternoon. In North Ulster and North Connaught precipitation amounts will generally be less and elsewhere it may stay completely dry but cold. This rain should extend as far North as about Meath by Friday evening (but even here it could stay as snow all day) and that is pretty much the forcast for Dublin - snow in the morning, into the afternoon with a good chance of rain by evening but also a risk of continued snowfall. It depends on how the higher resolution models which will have to take over from now on for proper analysis see this developing. There will still be divergences in the models into tomorrow.

Basically alot of the country is going to see heavy snowfall and for Dublin I would neither be expecting a hassle free journey to work now a hassle free journey home!

That's pretty much what I'm seeing on the latest models. Wasn't very confident after 12Z yesterday but there's been a gradual improvement in the charts, which is only a good thing as we get closer to the possible event!

Big Daddy Cool

ok so l live in a fairly hilly part of north meath, how much snow if any should i be expecting.

darkman2

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

ok so l live in a fairly hilly part of north meath, how much snow if any should i be expecting.

5 - 10cm. Not saying there will be 10cm but best to expect that sort of amount if travelling or something.

Min

I wonder if this will be like last March, rain in Kilkenny city, blizzards on the hills. Well, blizzards only if it is windy
Would higher ground like the Castlecomer plateau hold onto the snow?

Supercell

Supercell wrote: »

I'm going for sleet and wet snow in Dublin CC with slushy mess. West Dublin like Lucan , Talafornia might get 10 cm

Best news Ive had all day Supercell , cheers

Min

Min wrote: »

I wonder if this will be like last March, rain in Kilkenny city, blizzards on the hills. Well, blizzards only if it is windy
Would higher ground like the Castlecomer plateau hold onto the snow?

It could.
This might be one of Dm2's better forecasts and BB being too cautious
The front could easily stall which could cause you big problems.

I'd still prefer not to be on the coast though if my main business involved selling snow.
Basically at this stage I'd be more confident in Dm2's analysis,quoted below [with the caveat of sleety rain a probability right on the coast and Dublin CC] but if I was taking the m50,m4,m7,m11 home,I'd leave early friday.

The front probably will move slowly north enough,it probably will meet enough cold air/dewpoints etc to cause snow but theres entirely the possibility that it will stay south.

darkman2 wrote:

I don't know about that but atm I think this will be disruptive for the Southern part of Ulster, West Connaught, North Leinster and North Munster. Over South Leinster and South Munster snow on Friday morning will turn to rain in the Southeast on Friday afternoon. In North Ulster and North Connaught precipitation amounts will generally be less and elsewhere it may stay completely dry but cold. This rain should extend as far North as about Meath by Friday evening (but even here it could stay as snow all day) and that is pretty much the forcast for Dublin - snow in the morning, into the afternoon with a good chance of rain by evening but also a risk of continued snowfall. It depends on how the higher resolution models which will have to take over from now on for proper analysis see this developing. There will still be divergences in the models into tomorrow.

Su Campu

Looking at the 06Z GFS forecast soundings for Dublin Airport, I see a brief period of light snow Friday morning up to around midday, turning to sleet and finally rain by the afternoon.

Where the 700hPa relative humidity becomes 90% or greater (ie. when the red and green curves are almost touching) is when the precipitation should be. At lower levels there is around a 300-400 warm layer at the surface, increasing all the time, so that's why I see things quickly turning to rain.

DOCARCH

Whatever about Friday, from 06z GFS, looks like a repeat of same for Monday with another low pressure passing to the south.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

Whatever about Friday, from 06z GFS, looks like a repeat of same for Monday with another low pressure passing to the south.

I am slow to talk about where gfs puts lows in the current set up untill I almost see the cloud overhead at this stage.
But Doc,I'm much more confident of you see'ing snow friday now *if* the system goes that far north.
I don't think you'll be shoveling it but you should see it.

Maybe invite people up from booterstown to have a look ...oh and charge

John.Icy

Min wrote: »

I wonder if this will be like last March, rain in Kilkenny city, blizzards on the hills. Well, blizzards only if it is windy
Would higher ground like the Castlecomer plateau hold onto the snow?

It could be Min, you had a good event up there I believe, and
abit of altitude in an event like this, is what you would want if your to get a longer period of snow. Even if the snow were to turn to rain eventually, you should have had some accumulating snow due to the fact the snow would be a drier form. Then again, it could be anon-event, but sure, we still wont know till late tomorrow.

Still, I wouln't be suprised to see it stay to the south, several Ensemble members had this scenario, so it cannot be put under the radar.

And Monday looks intresting, by the next run, it could be gone, or re-occur, would be nice if it could be closer to us, to give us a another chance at frontal snow.

carlmwan

I wonder if navan will get any

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

But Doc,I'm much more confident of you see'ing snow friday now *if* the system goes that far north.
I don't think you'll be shoveling it but you should see it.

That's what I think myself - not loosing too much sleep or getting too excited (yet), a real typical nowcast situation.

I expect to see snow/sleet, for a bit maybe, but as you say I don't expect to be doing too much shovelling!

sunbabe08

cork calling. are we actually going to get snow

Cork city? nope.
Rain yes.

[saying that,it could be rain everywhere but ,probably not.

My thinking now is sleety snow inland from Enniscorthy northwards.

200motels

sunbabe08 wrote: »

cork calling. are we actually going to get snow

No, and we're not either.

sboyle

what about waterford ? will we see any?

sunbabe08

200motels wrote: »

No, and we're not either.

guessed as much.

darkman2

sunbabe08 wrote: »

cork calling. are we actually going to get snow

A little bit. I think if you take out a magnifying glass at around 7am on Friday you might see some snow crystals on the grass. After that it looks like rain if you are near the South coast because milder air will be coming close to the South coast early Friday morning unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective). More torwards the Southwest on low ground looks like an hour or so of light snow then light rain. Nothing remotely significant currently forcast.

Having said that there is a chance the rain could turn back to snow on Friday night for a short time.