Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

aurora 527

pistolpetes11

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

BB, just interested as you clearly know your onions, am I right in saying that all the models on the 0z run (waiting on 6z run) show a big plunge of cold air (-4 to -8 uppers) coming from the north during today covering virtually all of the country by the time the front arrives - or am I totally misreading them? I appreciate that's a different question from whether it'll snow tomorrow but it would help explain to the very sceptical why there is a (small) chance it might......

Correct , but the temps seem to be a little lower now







And one for Saturday

cherryghost

I'm seeing an upgrade in this morning charts, looks like there might be a possibility for snow for everyone at some point over the next 3 days

Min

ffarrell7 wrote: »

West Dublin, South Dublin got massive amounts of snow as did Dublin airport. 150,000 tons being cleared in one night suggests what to you?? And the Dublin suburbs have had heavy snowfall for the past three winters. Maybe not on the coast but certainly a few kilometers away from it and in West and South Dublin. Not to mention the Dublin mountains that gets the highest snowfall in Ireland and more especially higher up in the Wicklow mountains - perfect geographic poisition for following reasons. 1. only about 15-20 kilometers from the sea hence lots of precipitation. 2. in the East do away from the milder south.south-west influence of gulf stream 3.high mountians by Irish standards - Lugnaquilla is 931 metres which is over 3,054 feet. So Kilkenny head these are the facts.... Kilkenny rarely gets snow end of story.:):):)

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I think Min lives on a Mountain in Kilkenny, where he attends to his flock , so he is sick of the sight of the snow ,

Anyway its not a mines bigger than yours competition , chill out

To PistolPete, i know....but..it's herd not flock..thank God, lol

It is a hilly area which rises to near 1,100ft. I don't mind the snow tomorrow as milder weather is coming.
We had lots of snow the last three winters, we have snow every winter, we have snow when it rains in Kilkenny city.
The highest point in Kilkenny is 1,690ft. It is only the centre of the county which is low and with the hills all around it, this leads to Kilkenny being like a saucer which allows the temperatures to be lower in winter and higher in summer. You can get a near 50C change in temperature in Kilkenny in a year - lows under -16C and highs over 33C, the record being 33.3C. I am not sure you understand the weather here. I know Dublin got a lot of snow but it is not like other areas don't get snow too.
Snow is common here in winter, even in the mildest winters we get snow.

thomasj

Deleted User wrote: »

Southeast wicklow got a hard hit as did inland south Dublin to higher elevations especially.
Below is a picture of me clearing the snow here 2 days before Xmas.
A further 3 inches fell after we cleared it.Apologies about the quality,it's off my phone.
The location is Arklow 2 miles from the sea and the town actually got more.



Whats coming is a baby in comparison I think that may even fall as rain with me.

Good sypnosis, and I remember hearing peoples horror travel stories around arklow well but my point is mother nature doesn't recognise county boundaries!

All I am saying is parts of Wicklow were worse than other parts, likewise with Dublin, likewise with Meath and other counties!

I remember not so long ago people on here saying Dublin never gets snow (that statement can't be used again in a hurry!) and parts of west Dublin after suffering substantial snowfall. likewise in north Dublin a month ago snow covering my boots, when I got to d15 it was up to my knees! (okay I'm only 5'5)

Speak Now

ffarrell7 wrote: »

West Dublin, South Dublin got massive amounts of snow as did Dublin airport. 150,000 tons being cleared in one night suggests what to you?? And the Dublin suburbs have had heavy snowfall for the past three winters. Maybe not on the coast but certainly a few kilometers away from it and in West and South Dublin. Not to mention the Dublin mountains that gets the highest snowfall in Ireland and more especially higher up in the Wicklow mountains - perfect geographic poisition for following reasons. 1. only about 15-20 kilometers from the sea hence lots of precipitation. 2. in the East do away from the milder south.south-west influence of gulf stream 3.high mountians by Irish standards - Lugnaquilla is 931 metres which is over 3,054 feet. So Kilkenny head these are the facts.... Kilkenny rarely gets snow end of story.:):):)

But Lugnaquilla is in Wicklow not Dublin right

Min

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Issued at 06 January 2011 - 11:23
Severe Weather Alert
Issued at 11:13 Thursday, 6 Jan 2011

Outbreaks of sleet and snow expected to spread from the south overnight and tomorrow, affecting much of Leinster and Munster. And giving some accumulations of 3-5cm, with higher values on hills.


Valid 0300 on Friday 7th to 0300 on Saturday 8th

Supercell

I think its safe to say that places like Rathdrum, Laragh, Roundwood etc in the Wicklow mountains are going to get buried by this. Wouldn't be surprised to see totals in excess of 30cm there. In Dublin CC im expecting sleet , wet snow and rain with zero accumulations. Maybe some wet slushy accumulations a little further inland in the county.

ninebeanrows

Min wrote: »

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

That seems like a very optimistic forecast, although i suppose there will be them accumlations in some locations but probably very few.

Surprised by the warming.

I suppose they will throw in the usual caveats about Dublin to save themselves.

patneve2

Dublin =0 cm
over 200-250 metres=5-8 cm
other inland areas=0-4cm

Even if precipitation is heavy over higher ground, snow will still be quite wet and not amount to anything over 7-8cm. Over 10cm in the higher up wicklow towns and i'd be very surprised. However even if forecast temperatures dropped by 1-1.5 degrees a lot more snow could fall and even at lower levels.

Here in Dalkey I'm expecting light to moderate rain with a moderate east/north/east wind and a temp of 3.4

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

That seems like a very optimistic forecast, although i suppose there will be them accumlations in some locations but probably very few.

Surprised by the warming.

I suppose they will throw in the usual caveats about Dublin to save themselves.

It's very uncertain atm as to how far North the precipitation will get. The ECM is very optimistic for some snow through Leinster including Dublin but the precipitation never gets further North then Meath - better chance of snow here in those circumstances. For example it has Leinster and Munster below freezing all day. The UKMO is better then yesterday temperature wise and it has the precipitation a little further North. There is a good chance Ulster and Connaught will now stay completely dry. Ultimately this will come down to an observation forcast as it happens tomorrow.

Im still optimistic about it.

ninebeanrows

If the initial pulse of precip is intense enough tomorrow morning then areas could see a covering as temperatures could be held in place.

For an INMBY perspective (apologies)

Dublin CC

9am - DP= -3c

12pm - DP= -2c L SNOW

3pm - DP= 0c - SLEET

6pm - DP= +1c RAIN

9pm - DP= +2c RAIN

12am - DP= +1c RAIN

3am - DP= 0c SLEET

6am - DP= -3c L SNOW

thomasj

Weathercheck wrote: »

That seems like a very optimistic forecast, although i suppose there will be them accumlations in some locations but probably very few.

Surprised by the warming.

I suppose they will throw in the usual caveats about Dublin to save themselves.

Ahhh but mother nature doesn't recognise border boundaries

I remember a faithful evening 2 years ago where west Dublin got snow and the rest of Dublin got rain. Localised comes to mind any part of Dublin could get it!

thetonynator

Min wrote: »

To PistolPete, i know....but..it's herd not flock..thank God, lol

It is a hilly area which rises to near 1,100ft. I don't mind the snow tomorrow as milder weather is coming.
We had lots of snow the last three winters, we have snow every winter, we have snow when it rains in Kilkenny city.
The highest point in Kilkenny is 1,690ft. It is only the centre of the county which is low and with the hills all around it, this leads to Kilkenny being like a saucer which allows the temperatures to be lower in winter and higher in summer. You can get a near 50C change in temperature in Kilkenny in a year - lows under -16C and highs over 33C, the record being 33.3C. I am not sure you understand the weather here. I know Dublin got a lot of snow but it is not like other areas don't get snow too.
Snow is common here in winter, even in the mildest winters we get snow.

Unfortunately the basin/ saucer stretches down past thomastown . .so i have to go to brandon hill if i wanted snow every winter. :P

lucy2010

As a kid I remember disruptive snow in Bray in 82, 90 ish , 2003 & then 2008,2009 & 2010 x 2. Last 3 winters my car has been off the road due to snow & ice for over 2 weeks each time. Its always very localised as 5 min away may have nothing . Just before christmas there my MIL in monkstown had 8 inches in an hour yet nephew in Roundwood had nothing. Then we had 11 inches over 2 days, roundwood had nothing. always depends too if it comes from East or West - dublin mtns seem to suck up everything if from the west.

arctictree

Looks like we will get snow out of this. Have to make alternative arrangements for tomorrow. This setup is always good for us at elevation.

BTW, we didn't get much snow in the last spell. Seemed to have missed out on most of the streamers that got south Dublin and south Wicklow. Still got about 6 inches though.

lucy2010

It was mad - we were ringing him saying get your stuff & get down , your nannys up to her knees in the stuff & he thought we were mental..... hope you do - never seen a nicer place in snow than Roundwood.....

Min

The UK met office warning for Wales and parts of England says 2-5cm but upto 10cm on higher ground.

ednwireland

snowing in donegal town now :mad:

dew point 0.8 current temp (at 92m) 2c

panic over stopped now phew!

Vudgie

I have seen people ask before and apologies for asking again but can someone give me an idiot proof way of confirming ASL height.

Just want to see if I am going to be eating canned food this weekend!!:D

Is OSI the best place to try?

ednwireland

Vudgie wrote: »

I have seen people ask before and apologies for asking again but can someone give me an idiot proof way of confirming ASL height.

Just want to see if I am going to be eating canned food this weekend!!:D

Is OSI the best place to try?

google earth !

tomcollins97

Are there any opinions of what south coastal Dublin may get - trying to decide whether to dart or drive tomorrow

kopfan77

Still hoping we might get some here in limerick tomorrow

irishmotorist

tomcollins97 wrote: »

Are there any opinions of what south coastal Dublin may get - trying to decide whether to dart or drive tomorrow

My totally uneducated opinion (at the moment), but based on what discussion has been going on here, is that I don't think Dublin will get enough to cause traffic problems. I think there may be snow early on, but rain will wipe that out later.

I will be watching here and the ME forecast to finally decide, but at the moment I'm thinking that I'll drive tomorrow rather than going for bus/dart.

Rebelbrowser

Vudgie wrote: »

I have seen people ask before and apologies for asking again but can someone give me an idiot proof way of confirming ASL height.

Just want to see if I am going to be eating canned food this weekend!!:D

Is OSI the best place to try?

Irish weather online have a gizmo in one of the drop down menus....

BBC graphics on their latest news 24 forecast has snow eventually turning to rain in cork city... from this but rain in waterford and rain everywhere else from Dublin southwestwards...
They are also say its a snow to rain event in the uk where it starts off as snow on it's northern flank.
The stuff they have mapped over leinster moves in off the irish sea and is all rain on their graphics...

thetonynator

ednwireland wrote: »

google earth !

Not the most accurate for height really, there are some sites for it cant remember which ones though!


Meteoalarm has south of the country on orange:

egan2020

Vudgie wrote: »

I have seen people ask before and apologies for asking again but can someone give me an idiot proof way of confirming ASL height.

Just want to see if I am going to be eating canned food this weekend!!:D

Is OSI the best place to try?

Try earthtools.org

Slashermcguirk

Please do not look at bbc forecasts for Dublin. Throughout both cold spells they consistently predicted rain and never snow. Both cold spells delivered huge snowfalls in Dublin and no rain. BBC are good for UK forecasts but dont focus on Republic of Ireland. Dublin seems to be a lot colder and getting way more snow than London this year.

I have noticed that temps seem to be consistently lower in Dublin

Speak Now

thetonynator wrote: »

Not the most accurate for height really, there are some sites for it cant remember which ones though!


Meteoalarm has south of the country on orange:

Isn't meteoalram updated by each country's own weather service.
So it just mirrors what Met Eireann are saying (I Think).