Thaw and possible flooding 26th-27th -- forecasts and discussion

JanuarySnowstor

BostonB wrote: »

Poor building standards and insulation. We're all on summer tyres and they don't clear the roads. We're just not prepared for the cold. Wasn't that much snow really.

2 points,

1) There was massive snowfall in parts of Dublin.
2) I have winter tyres on my own car and they are only a slight improvement.
Nothing will grip to sheet ice except for snowchains.

I think considering the severity of the weather the country coped quite well imo

él statutorio

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

2 points,

1) There was massive snowfall in parts of Dublin.
2) I have winter tyres on my own car and they are only a slight improvement.
Nothing will grip to sheet ice except for snowchains.

I think considering the severity of the weather the country coped quite well imo

Studded tyres work too, although you'd have to question the sense in buying studded tyres for the few days of snow and ice we get...

mickger844posts

What a difference 24 hours can make. The Atlantic fights back and dispenses the cold air with force. Video taken today in Tramore, County Waterford

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhN4UUvZfnA

thetonynator

Snow was gone here when i woke up round 9, mild all day rain didn't start until a few hours ago.

Poochie05

Min wrote: »

Good to see Jack Frost and Frosty the snowman are suffering horrible deaths today.

My neighbours have a carrot in a puddle of water on their patio!

Minstrel27

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

dull weather for dull people!

Or you could say people will now get to work without difficulty, those on mountains can get to the shops easily or people can walk on footpaths without harming themselves.

Cantona's Collars

RTE forecast giving up to 50mm of rain for Munster and South Leinster.

Corruptedmorals

Lots of dripping all day in Leixlip..snow outside has diminished but still a lot to melt! Hasn't completely gone from roofs yet even. Canal is still frozen solid with snow on top. Hoping this thaw speeds up, I hate melty crappy ice and slush- more more lethal than some nice snow to walk on and during the last thaw is when I fell and damaged my tailbone- BUT I want my water back, preferably tonight if not tomorrow

Minstrel27

zerks wrote: »

RTE forecast giving up to 50mm of rain for Munster and South Leinster.

There was no snow in this part of Munster so it could rain for a week and I wouldn't be bothered

H2UMrsRobinson

There may be a thaw on, but me and Mr H2U have just taken about 20mins to do a 5 min walk home from de local. It was like the first round of dancing on ice. More like pi$$heads on ice. Seriously how we didn't end up in a crumpled tangled heap is a bloody miracle. Take care folks - it's treachorous out there.

Birdnuts

After all the excitement in the past month the next week to ten days looks as dull as ditch water:(

nacho libre

Birdnuts wrote: »

After all the excitement in the past month the next week to ten days looks as dull as ditch water:(

I feel your pain:(

If M.T. can't conjure up another cold spell, i'm going to have to invest in a snow machine!

maquiladora

Imagine if that was snow...

H2UMrsRobinson

maquiladora wrote: »

Imagine if that was snow...

if that were snow i'd have to throw myself under the nearest bus...although if that were snow there'd be no buses running...or trains. I'd find some way to commit snowicide though..!

opinion guy

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

if that were snow i'd have to throw myself under the nearest bus...although if that were snow there'd be no buses running...or trains. I'd find some way to commit snowicide though..!

I imagine standing outside for a while would do the trick

mike65

I feel a mild rebellion coming on.

thetonynator

Why is it that south leinster got sweet f*ck all for the whole cold spell (bar wexford) and the minute the temp rises above 0 it pours rain for ever . . 50mm of snow would have done grand (50mm not the snow equivalent of 50mm of rain!) but instead this is what happens . .:(

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

Why is it that south leinster got sweet f*ck all for the whole cold spell (bar wexford) and the minute the temp rises above 0 it pours rain for ever . . 50mm of snow would have done grand (50mm not the snow equivalent of 50mm of rain!) but instead this is what happens . .:(

I know what you mean.

Still though, we are only about 1/3 the way through winter. Still a lot of time and potential for more cold/snow events in early 2011.

That reminds me, I must dig out MTC's long range forecast...

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

I know what you mean.

Still though, we are only about 1/3 the way through winter. Still a lot of time and potential for more cold/snow events in early 2011.

That reminds me, I must dig out MTC's long range forecast...

And what a beautiful forecast it is . . .:P

sunbabe08

yikes. some decent rain heading cork way at the moment.

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

And what a beautiful forecast it is . . .:P

Here it is:

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

Genius.

up for anything

Now that we don't have to face it anymore, it's time to sit back and enjoy others slip sliding away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s598yfuB-lI

Supercell

Raining all day and the ice on the roads is unreal, still a few inches of snow here by the coast on Ringsend, must be deep inland a bit even now.

Not

Supercell wrote: »

Raining all day and the ice on the roads is unreal, still a few inches of snow here by the coast on Ringsend, must be deep inland a bit even now.

Just driven from near Portlaoise to south Dublin. Plenty of standing water and mini floods to be careful of, but not a hint of ice on the road anywhere that I could see, except on side roads in the Dublin suburbs.

greysides

Listening to the wind and rain on the window behind me it's amazing how quickly the snow is forgotten as life reverts to a normal pattern. If it wasn't for the need to work I'd be wishing for the white stuff back. I hate this dreary weather.

Poochie05

I'm wishing the Sound of the rain on my window was actually the sound of water filling the tanks in the attic!

BostonB

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

2 points,

1) There was massive snowfall in parts of Dublin.
2) I have winter tyres on my own car and they are only a slight improvement.
Nothing will grip to sheet ice except for snowchains.

I think considering the severity of the weather the country coped quite well imo

Massive? I doubt there was 2 ft in most places.

Initially it was snow causing the problem. Not sheet ice.

hellboy99

Meteoalarm gone orange for Ireland

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index2.php?country=IE&day=0&lang=

caseyann

up for anything wrote: »

Now that we don't have to face it anymore, it's time to sit back and enjoy others slip sliding away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s598yfuB-lI

That is just mental lol see the fed ex truck hightailing to the left Those people are epitome of bad driving and bad common sense :rolleyes:

crosstownk

Water, water everywhere - and not a drop to drink!