National: Severe Cold/ Snow Discussion (Thanks to all!)

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

NAE is only out to 33 for me here : http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=0&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Where do you see it out to 48 hours?

Folks-this is my last post for a good few hours so listen up

The models are struggling.If theres no low or it's too far to the south,winds stay NW or North for the weekend meaning only seconds at best [whats left of Ulsters snow] for the East and Dublin.Possibly little or none,it's unknown,models aren't coping and chopping and changing!
Best wait for the 12z and the umo and ecm etc

You are just going to have to stay tuned untill we know exactly what feature is where.
MT will be doing that as will WC no doubt and Darkman2
Things are still bright for snow lovers south,west and north.

littlefriend

Jesus I feel like crying

dacogawa

Weathercheck, is this 48 hour one different ?



M.T. we need you!!!! (hope this works)

millymoo

I've been reading this thread and the last one and must say I have become very interested in the weather! I give the hubby a little breakdown every night and he wonders where I'm getting my info
I'm in meath and right now it's 5.9 degrees and sunny.
Hard to see anything changing in the near future :mad:
Oh I do love the snow but was housebound big time last time round....
I wonder now if we may just have a white Christmas?....

davidsr20

I give up it seems a bit hype over the last few days for nothing,logging out

snow ghost

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Apparently the lazy so and so sleeps occasionally.

Rebel, that was even funnier before you edited it! Thanks for the laugh that cracked me up.

hellboy99

Starting to cloud up here again and 8.1c

Min

Weathercheck wrote: »

6z NAE follows the southerly trend although Munster still picks up 5-10cm of snow.

Meanwhile the Leinster region has very very little precip in the next 48 hours.

I hope that is correct, want no snow till now and late Saturday...given we will get snow at some stage.

ninebeanrows

Lads it aint over, this is just one run and the Corkonians would get a a nice 5-15cm of snow from the NAE 6z run!

maquiladora

Not too worried about the 06Z GFS/NAE.

The models are changing a lot more than usual during the usual reliable timeframe, and that means we have to expect more changes on the next runs.

Need to wait and see what the UKMO has to say and the 12Z GFS/NAE before starting to worry about a major downgrade.

irish1967

hmmm.. me thinks that the talk of a downgrade was a crowd dispersal technique !! Well played !;)

Mr Benevolent

littlefriend wrote: »

Jesus I feel like crying

Eh? It's only weather. Snows and ice is a pain in the arse anyway.

roryc1

I feel this is a nowcast situation for the next few days, all the models are having a hard time and I really don’t trust them at the moment, so I wouldn’t panic just yet people

decies

9 deg and light rain i'n Waterford . And we don't want the bloody snow down here AGAIN!!

Beanstalk

temp dropped to 3 degrees in Letterkenny, the rain stopped over an hour ago and the skys cleared briefly, now theres heavy cloud cover.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Not too worried about the 06Z GFS/NAE.

The models are changing a lot more than usual during the usual reliable timeframe, and that means we have to expect more changes on the next runs.

Need to wait and see what the UKMO has to say and the 12Z GFS/NAE before starting to worry about a major downgrade.

What time is the UKMO out ?

lucernarian

Firstly, I think that widespread snow is still somewhat likely over Friday night. I said that the models were overdoing it and when they've made such a dramatic swing in the other direction, it's hard to take them as seriously. Though having checked the NAE's charts it's a little disappointing.

The programmed path of Friday night's fun and games still look a little dubious to me, and something akin to the UKMO's output yesterday evening except shifted further south is looking the most likely outcome for me, barely though as there are a lot of options to choose from. There's a good chance that the remnants of the Polar Vortex comes a bit further south and west than expected and that itself could deliver the goods over Saturday, on top of the strengthening LP skirting Cork on Friday night, albeit in the north and east.

The other thing - about this Polar Low development today: there ain't much of a polar low expected by me to hit Ireland anyway, as the 500hPa temperatures near or upwind of Ireland aren't up to scratch. As the sea is a bit warmer than other occasions I could see a PL being sustained with perhaps -39 or -38 degree air but not with the -35/-36 air just to the north of Ireland. What I would hope for is that the remains of the PL brings some organised snow to the northern half of Ireland later this evening. So lots to look forward to still, but it certainly won't be another December 2000.

missingtime

I'm not that interested in weather but this edge of the seat stuff!

Speak Now

millymoo wrote: »

I've been reading this thread and the last one and must say I have become very interested in the weather! I give the hubby a little breakdown every night and he wonders where I'm getting my info
I'm in meath and right now it's 5.9 degrees and sunny.
Hard to see anything changing in the near future :mad:
Oh I do love the snow but was housebound big time last time round....
I wonder now if we may just have a white Christmas?....

So what charts or models do you base this on :rolleyes:

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

What time is the UKMO out ?

Around 4pm.

jonnyfingers

Can I ask why so many people on the weather forum want snow? What's the fascination with it?

The last snowfall made me very cold, stranded me at airports, made it dangerous to get to work and cost me hundreds of euro in missed work hours, flight changes, etc.

I'm due to fly to England again this weekend so I for on hope not a flake of snow falls in either country.

Beanstalk

another update,first sign of sleet occuring in letterkenny mixed with hail. at the minute, everything appears to be happening the way m.t. said it would.....also the wind is picking up and it has gotten noticeably darker.

fizzycyst

decies wrote: »

9 deg and light rain i'n Waterford . And we don't want the bloody snow down here AGAIN!!

ahem, ahem speak for your self

irish1967

jonnyfingers wrote: »

Can I ask why so many people on the weather forum want snow? What's the fascination with it?

The last snowfall made me very cold, stranded me at airports, made it dangerous to get to work and cost me hundreds of euro in missed work hours, flight changes, etc.

I'm due to fly to England again this weekend so I for on hope not a flake of snow falls in either country.

Cú Giobach

This is like a scene from a comedy film.
Upgrade, Sound of crowd going YAAEEE!!,
Downgrade, Crowd going Awwww,
Upgrade now, YEAAA!!
Downgrade again sorry Awwwww
......Repeat until snowstorm hits.

Iancar29

IM still being optimistic... I just have too!...

We cant let all the hype just go like that when theres still more runs to look at!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

IM still being optimistic... I just have too!...

We cant let all the hype just go like that when theres still more runs to look at!

Yeah, things changed drastically in that run, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same happen in the next run.

Keep the faith people ! :pac:

rainbowtrout

Cú Giobach wrote: »

Anyone know any good songs while we're waiting??

Blur - This is a Low would be the most appropriate at the moment!

Speak Now

jonnyfingers wrote: »

Can I ask why so many people on the weather forum want snow? What's the fascination with it?

The last snowfall made me very cold, stranded me at airports, made it dangerous to get to work and cost me hundreds of euro in missed work hours, flight changes, etc.

I'm due to fly to England again this weekend so I for on hope not a flake of snow falls in either country.

Weather enthusiasts love extremes be it heavy rain, strong winds, freezing conditions, snow,hail or heat. If you're not a weather nut it's hard to explain. Some people like to watch 30 men chase a egg around a pitch (I believe they call it rugby). It's just each to their own interests.
Anyway as we all know the Mother Nature will do what she pleases regardless of what weather anybody wishes for.

Min

Cú Giobach wrote: »

This is like a scene from a comedy film.
Upgrade, Sound of crowd going YAAEEE!!,
Downgrade, Crowd going Awwww,
Upgrade now, YEAAA!!
Downgrade again sorry Awwwww
......Repeat until snowstorm hits.

Some of us are Yeahhh for downgrades and boo for upgrades, though a downgrade is an upgrade for us :pac: