Tipperary North election thread

tipptom

Reporting on radio today that ecu unit in nenagh could be closed as early as next month,if i was running against hoctor i would be burning her with that every time,bad timing for her,could be final nail.

beagga

tipptom wrote: »

Reporting on radio today that ecu unit in nenagh could be closed as early as next month,if i was running against hoctor i would be burning her with that every time,bad timing for her,could be final nail.

I bet FG, Labour, SF or the rest won't need that to be pointed out to them..........:D

Cat Melodeon

Did anyone watch Alan Kelly on Prime Time (it's on RTE Player 27/1)? It was a very short segment, they only got to speak once or twice. He got shouted down a bit the first time, but got his point against O'Caolain out well enough (highlighting that SF voted for bailing out Anglo). He could do with more practice, but is out of M Hoctor's league by miles (just look at her infamously dismal RTE performance last year). Would FG ever let Noel Coonan on national tv? Would he know what to say?

tipptom

Yea, looked a bit nervous and little slurred,thought miriam was a bit aggressive with him,think she has it in for good looking lads since the mcwilliams book,but was on top of his brief is the main thing,still a way to go to catch pearse docherty who is very impressive for a rookie with some unrealistic economic policys to contain with.

mikemac

Cat Melodeon wrote: »

He could do with more practice, but is out of M Hoctor's league by miles (just look at her infamously dismal RTE performance last year).

I think everyone can be forgiven for that once.
Sure Miriam said she was always doing that.

No sign of Hoctors campaign launch yet, having a look at the Nenagh Guardian and see nothing.
Or here http://www.mairehoctor.ie/index.php

Decent website actually, I've seen far worse from others. Simple and easy to use

mccoist

hello voters of nth tipperary
this is just my own opinion please be aware ff and lowery are hpoing to regain entry to the dail
through the democratic means of voters transfers ,please be aware of this on voting day and cast your vote accordingly, as was mentioned in a previous quote hocter and coonan never made the quota
prediction
1 kelly
2 Coonan
3 A n other
this third seat is the target seat for these poor excuse politicians which sneak in to our dail and then proceed to act like some sort headless non thinking idiots
We can do nothing about their hard line supporters who give them such a strong launch pad in which to corrupt our democratic system ,but if we are mindfull on how we tick the boxes and in our understanding of the voting system we can maybe affect the outcome
Please be sure and pass on and discuss this with your family and friends
An empty space on the ballot paper maybe the best vote you will ever make

mccoist

hello feeling stressed
please excuse the point that i advised anyone
please note i only advised on how system works not on who to vote for
if you recap on all the blogs you have to assume or even get the inkling that even predicting is trying to influence,
i did not notice any rules in respect to what can or cannot be said but if i offended you you tough
i am not the problem ,
just a thought
thank you for reply

feelingstressed wrote: »

Are you joking?
Michael Lowry will top the polls



Realy, this is a thread on predictions and what people think will happen. I don't think messages or advising people how to vote is needed here, I'd go to Politics forum if I wanted that.
I've posted a lot of this thread but only on my predications, I never advised anyone how to vote. That's for themselves to figure out

beagga

mccoist wrote: »

prediction
1 kelly
2 Coonan
3 A n other

You are joking? Are you from north Tipp?
If you actually think that Lowry is not going to make it your sadly mistaken. I understand that there is no guarantees of the votes that anyone will get but he will walk in. He has the local support and always will. Lowry or Kelly will top the poll and the third spot is open with coonan I think making it.
Who's the challengers? Hoctor(FF), Morris(SF), O'Malley(GP) or Regan(IND)

My prediction
Lowry
Kelly
Coonan

Maybe not in that order but that's my 3

mccoist

I am indeed from nth Tipp
I think you are not aware of the mood for change and a mood of disenchantment with the voting public.this indeed will be an interesting election
Lowery is associated with the present goverment that and a colourful political past may play against him.
Morris may not run and Sinn Fein do not seem at this present moment to have the political nous to run someone to win seat.
Hocter will definately struggle.
I wonder if labour have considered kathleen Omeara as a second.the way things are I believe she would be a strong contender considering ..
That is why I believe third seat up for grabs.

beagga

While there is a big political mood swing. Most of the anger is directed at FF and north Tipp is a very Local politics area. Lowry will still get in with Kelly being his biggest challenger for topping the poll.
Even with this current political climate can you honestly see coonan beating lowry in first preferences?

Cat Melodeon

mccoist wrote: »

I think you are not aware of the mood for change and a mood of disenchantment with the voting public.this indeed will be an interesting election
Lowery is associated with the present goverment that and a colourful political past may play against him.
Morris may not run and Sinn Fein do not seem at this present moment to have the political nous to run someone to win seat.
Hocter will definately struggle.
I wonder if labour have considered kathleen Omeara as a second.the way things are I believe she would be a strong contender considering ..
That is why I believe third seat up for grabs.

Seamus Morris has already declared. He launched his campaign today in Nenagh. He'll pick up votes but still not enough to get in.

Labour are definitely NOT running a second candidate. They do not have a strong traditional base of voters in Tipp and are relying on people voting for them in order to get FF out. They'd be mad to split that precarious floating vote with a second candidate. Anyway, O'Meara proved last time out that she's not popular enough.

No matter what else happens in Tipp, Lowry will be elected with a full quota, if not as the poll topper. That is inevitable. People didn't stop voting for him through the Ben Dunne scandal, the tax scandals, the tribunals. They're not going to stop voting for him now, particularly after his performance on the Finance Bill this week.

I agree that Hoctor will struggle, but unlike Labour, there are FF voters in Tipp who will vote FF til they die, no matter what the state of the country or the party. With a Munster man now at the helm, many will stick to their guns and vote FF anyway. They made a big mistake running Hoctor again, they'd have been much better off with someone new, preferable not from a dynasty like the Smiths or Hanafins.

I still predict Lowry, Kelly, Coonan.

tipptom

FF is only running one canditate this time so you would have to say in a normal election she would be a shoo in,but this is an extardinary electoin but never the less she is hardly going to blow even with a big defection enough to get in.Personally myself i think this poll about ff getting 25 seats nationally is bullsh*t,they surely have 35_39,dont think sinn fein will do as well as is said and is alan kelly going to double a labour vote in north tipp.

Cat Melodeon

tipptom wrote: »

is alan kelly going to double a labour vote in north tipp?

I think he might, if he can convince people enough. He seems to be running on the back of FFs losses, and is trying to hammer home the idea that he is the only N Tipp candidate with a real chance of getting a ministerial position, and that a Tipp Minister would be a good thing. How realistic his chances of a cabinet seat really are , I don't know, I guess it depends on the FG/Lab split as there are more long-term careerist Labour people ahead of him. I could see him doing well in Agriculture, he's been pretty active and successful in that area in the senate and as an MEP and with more CAP negotiations coming up they'll need someone with the experience.

I doubt Coonan would get a seat in a coalition cabinet. He's only deputy spokesperson on Agriculture & Fisheries & CAP reform for FG, might serve on a committee but unlikely to get a full portfolio. Would be a handy coalition cross-party partner for Kelly in CAP negotiations, but I doubt they'd give Tipp a monopoly on that in any case.

Hoctor didn't do too well as a Junior Minister - I doubt she'd be first choice even if FF had the remotest chance of getting back in.

Lowry will never be a Minister again, he'll only have power as an Independent for as long as there is a tiny majority in the Dail.

I don't know if the (unproven) chance of getting a Minister will be enough to influence people to switch to Labour. He'd need to up his profile a bit more to catch up with Lowry and be sure of defeating Coonan. There's very little public platform on a local level outside of door-knocking and funerals. Any chance of a public 5-way candidate debate in Tipp?

beagga

tipptom wrote: »

Personally myself i think this poll about ff getting 25 seats nationally is bullsh*t,they surely have 35_39,dont think sinn fein will do as well as is said and is alan kelly going to double a labour vote in north tipp.

Are FF also only runing 1 candidate in a lot of other 3 seat areas?
I do agree that 25 seats seems a bit low for them but I think you could be a big on the high side with 35-39, I'll guess between 31 -35 seats.

Cat Melodeon wrote: »

Any chance of a public 5-way candidate debate in Tipp?

Couldn't see some of them having the balls for it.........:D

tipptom

beagga wrote: »

Are FF also only runing 1 candidate in a lot of other 3 seat areas?
I do agree that 25 seats seems a bit low for them but I think you could be a big on the high side with 35-39, I'll guess between 31 -35 seats.



<Couldn't see some of them having the balls for it.........:D

>
Hoctor would be foolish to agree to that and by extension then lowry would be in the same situiation if not worse as he held ff in power more than hoctor. Your probaply right about the 35-39,maybe a bit carried away with that one,its hard to call,then maybe we are misreading and the polls are right that it is meltdown for ff if the running for the hills is anything is to go by,now blaney donegal,and possibly cowen then moloney will follow and theirs talk about our esteemed tanaiste sweary mary not going.ooh,i love an auld irish election for drama!.

tipptom

paddy power tipp north current betting odds;m lowry,1/33, a kelly 1/7, n coonan 1/6 m hoctor 4/7, s morris10/1

mikemac

4 candidates are odds on for a three seater

They are miserly betting odds, I doubt they'll get any bets at all.
That's lazy pricing

Cat Melodeon

Seriously? 4/7 Hoctor? I must be delusional so.

mikemac

Boyle Sports are just as bad

Lowry 1/50
Kelly 1/7
Coonan 1/7
Hoctor 4/6
Morris 5/1
O'Regan 33/1
O'Malley 66/1

That trader should be fired if they reckon that's accurate. 4 of them odds on, seriously?
I know they have to make a profit and work in margins but they're having a laugh

tipptom

They wont even give odds on the south tipp election,thats the thing about this election,its nearly scary what way it could swing that the bookies who are usually fairly accurate are nearly discouraging bets.

jprboy

Piece on Green Party candidate Olwyn O'Malley on front page of this week's Nenagh Guardian. Member of the party's National Council.

She has "ruled out any chance of securing a seat." Intention is to raise awareness of party in North Tipp and "to lay the foundations for the future."

tipptom

jprboy wrote: »

Piece on Green Party candidate Olwyn O'Malley on front page of this week's Nenagh Guardian. Member of the party's National Council.

She has "ruled out any chance of securing a seat." Intention is to raise awareness of party in North Tipp and "to lay the foundations for the future."

Jaysus, i think they have laid waste to the future of the party over the last 3 years,wouldnt mind but they would be the most honourable politicians in the dail but it going to take two elections to come back from this one,lie down with dogs and all that....

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

beagga

Obaraten wrote: »

Midlands

---

>Midwest

Insect Overlord

beagga wrote: »

Sorry, this thread got moved around a little bit this evening!
There should be a permanent link from the General Election 2011 forum to this thread now. Alas, the thread was returned to us via the Midlands. It might never be the same again! :eek:

jprboy

Insect Overlord wrote: »

Sorry, this thread got moved around a little bit this evening!
There should be a permanent link from the General Election 2011 forum to this thread now. Alas, the thread was returned to us via the Midlands. It might never be the same again! :eek:

Well, this constituency is now North Tipp/South Offaly so there was a small element of accuracy in the move.

On another note, report in this week's Nenagh Guardian that Roscrea Community Development Council is hosting an "Election Public Meeting". Some confusion re the date; the piece states initially that it's on Wed Feb 16 but twice later mentions Thurs Feb 10 - start time in both cases is given as 8.00 pm. Venue is Grant's Hotel (Damer Court). Will post if I can get this clarified.

Most of the candidates have indicated they will/may attend.

artnenagh

Further to the above, Nenagh Arts Centre had previously confirmed all candidates in the North Tipp Constituency for its Election Debate going ahead at 8 p.m. on Thursday, February 10th

Here are the details:
Nenagh Arts Centre presents an election debate with the North Tipperary Candidates for the 2011 General Election at 8 p.m. on Thursday 10th February.
This will offer the public an opportunity to speak to candidates -(Maire Hoctor (FF), Alan Kelly (LAB) Noel Coonan (FG), Seamus Morris (SF), Michael Lowry (Ind)and Olywyn O’Malley (Greens) - about local and national issues that affect them. The Candidates are offered the opportunity to speak for five minutes on their record and their thoughts for the future. Chairperson Garry Cotter, Editor of the Nenagh Guardian will then open up the debate to the floor for questions.
Admission is €5 with proceeds going to support the Arts Centre programme.
The event takes place at 8p.m. next Thursday in the Arts Centre, Town Hall, Banba Square. Tickets are available from the Centre in advance.
Phone 067 34900

Cat Melodeon

FG are currently leading the boards.ie election, with Alan Kelly hot on Coonan's heels. Don't think the poll accurately shows my 92-year-old granny's vote or those of her friends, none of whom are boardsies and all of whom will be voting FF til they die no matter what. Maybe a good dose of winter vomiting virus could be strategically planted in the nursing homes of North Tipp...

mccoist

nationally this election is about two things
the first is what type of coalition goverment FG/LABOUR will form
the second is who will be in opposition ff
in Nth Tipp we will do our part for the first part elect alan kelly and noel coonan
teh second part though is where the real battle is
Do we stick with lowery he supported the outgoing ff goverment
hoctor enough is enough
or have we got the courage to change our habits and vote in change morris
SF being the biggest opposition party in the dail will keep the next goverment on their toes
lets do our bit in nth tipp

tipptom

Cat Melodeon wrote: »

FG are currently leading the boards.ie election, with Alan Kelly hot on Coonan's heels. Don't think the poll accurately shows my 92-year-old granny's vote or those of her friends, none of whom are boardsies and all of whom will be voting FF til they die no matter what. Maybe a good dose of winter vomiting virus could be strategically planted in the nursing homes of North Tipp...

LOL,somebody said there should be a methdone treatment to wean them of ff,but can hoctor reduce what was nearly 14000 votes in the last election by half,is that possible even in these extradinary times?.