Tipperary North election thread

Cat Melodeon

tipptom wrote: »

Will Hoctors eletion vote suffer because of nomination for flip flop Hannifan.

If Hoctor gets in it will be purely because of the diehard FFers. To them, it doesn't matter what Hanafin or Cowen or Martin or anyone else does, they will vote FF til they die. Whether Hoctor gets in or not depends on how many diehards are left - I can't imagine any floating voter being swayed by Hoctor herself - she was a disgrace as Junior Minister and seemed to be unable to exert any influence over retention of services at Nenagh Hospital. Seamie Morris (SF) will probably pick up a few votes from the floating FF base but I'd imagine the bulk of disenchanted FFers will go with Kelly, can't see Coonan gathering many more than he polled last time, but he'll probably have enough for the 3rd seat.

My prediction:

1. Lowry
2. Kelly
3. Coonan

4. Hoctor/Morris

(Purely unscientific predicition)

SARZY

tipptom wrote: »

Will Hoctors eletion vote suffer because of nomination for flip flop Hannifan.

Doesnt matter for her now what she does. She is history. Useless as a politician, not suited to that job at all.
Even the diehard FFers wont vote for her this time. She barely made it last time and If they thought they had a chance of the seat, they would have shafted her.
Have a close look at her supporters when she is canvassing, if any, and you will understand what I mean.

mikemac

Maybe I'm way behind

Who got the FF nomination or is that sorted yet?
Hoctor? Michael Smith Jr?

tipptom

feelingstressed wrote: »

Maybe I'm way behind

Who got the FF nomination or is that sorted yet?
Hoctor? Michael Smith Jr?

Hoctor got the nomination.
Got an awful lambasting at the weekend from lowry supporters for daring to suggest that kelly would take a seat,was told i was mad,didnt know the ff vote etc etc,lucky i didnt tell them i thought he has a chance of topping the poll or they would have commited me.AM I MAD!.

SARZY

tipptom wrote: »

Hoctor got the nomination.
Got an awful lambasting at the weekend from lowry supporters for daring to suggest that kelly would take a seat,was told i was mad,didnt know the ff vote etc etc,lucky i didnt tell them i thought he has a chance of topping the poll or they would have commited me.AM I MAD!.

Those Lowry 'supporters' need to get in touch with their electorate.
For you are quite right about Kelly.

Hoctor is the weakest candidate in the field, No Doubt, and the diehard FF vote is gone, for this election anyway.

Its Kelly, Coonan and Lowry for Nth Tipp this time.

tipptom

Cooney will have to count himself lucky there is such a swing for fg cause he would be struggling big time if this was not such an extradordinary election.

beagga

I'd say it'll be lowry/ kelly as the poll toppers.
Coonan for third as
(a) hoctor has lost a lot of support (nenagh hospital etc.),
(b) Kelly will pick up a lot of her votes
(c) sinn fein just haven't the support in north tipp
(d) a lot of lowry supporters are ex-FG's and coonan will benefit more than others from transfers
(e) a lot of people will not even put a number beside hoctors name so she doesn't even benefit from the transfers.

Just my 2c, no proof of any of above.....:)

tipptom wrote: »

Cooney will have to count himself lucky there is such a swing for fg cause he would be struggling big time if this was not such an extradordinary election.

I'm sure you mean Coonan or is there anothe fg candidate?.......

tipptom

tipptom wrote: »

Cooney will have to count himself lucky there is such a swing for fg cause he would be struggling big time if this was not such an extradordinary election.

Sorry,meant Coonan.
Just heard lowry has decided to delay the finance bill with faux concern over usp for medical card holders,he supported this all from the budget thrugh to now and now tries another stroke,time for fg and labour to stop this sh*t and get some balls,face this down and no more agreements with ff,vote them out of the dail,they have no mandate to push through theis policy for the next 4 years.

macgrub

I'm going to go with

1-Kelly
2-Lowry
3-Coonan


Hoctor/Morris trailing.

I think whoever tops the poll will make hard work of it. It will be a battle there between Kelly and Lowry. Like many others said here, Coonan will scrape in third. Kinda by default at this stage. N. Tipp is not a SF territory and Maire Hoctor is a write-off.

All only my opinion :rolleyes:

beagga

tipptom wrote: »

Sorry,meant Coonan.
Just heard lowry has decided to delay the finance bill with faux concern over usp for medical card holders,he supported this all from the budget thrugh to now and now tries another stroke,time for fg and labour to stop this sh*t and get some balls,face this down and no more agreements with ff,vote them out of the dail,they have no mandate to push through theis policy for the next 4 years.

Agree with you 100% but do you think they will do it, Not a chance........:mad:
This suits them, there is an election in 3-4 weeks, so play around with the bill, argue a bit, push it through, then if they're in power next it will all be FF's fault..... they're all as bad as each other at this stage IMHO........

miseeire

Lowry has supported fianna fail through thick and thin for the past number of years and north tipp has benefited to the tune of millions.Could he consider backing fine gael now?Nothing that individual would do would surprise me,in order to get power.

macgrub

miseeire wrote: »

Lowry has supported fianna fail through thick and thin for the past number of years and north tipp has benefited to the tune of millions.Could he consider backing fine gael now?Nothing that individual would do would surprise me,in order to get power.

I don't know about that now...Look at his 'home' town Thurles. Every industry except Dew Valley has practically shut down or deserted the place. His biggest promise was some sort of ring road to ease congestion.
I think we can put a line through that now too

beagga

miseeire wrote: »

Lowry has supported fianna fail through thick and thin for the past number of years and north tipp has benefited to the tune of millions.Could he consider backing fine gael now?Nothing that individual would do would surprise me,in order to get power.

Certainly wouldn't agree with that.
What has north Tipp got that is worth all these millions?

I suppose had he supported FF through the 'good times' that statement might have been true.............:)

tipptom

beagga wrote: »

Agree with you 100% but do you think they will do it, Not a chance........:mad:
This suits them, there is an election in 3-4 weeks, so play around with the bill, argue a bit, push it through, then if they're in power next it will all be FF's fault..... they're all as bad as each other at this stage IMHO........

Yep,can picture kenny now,(when his pr team release him when the election is won),waving the finance bill and saying its not ours,nothing we can do about it,was here when we got here.
Lowry said he couldnt support ff if brian cowen was not leader,shows his judgement,unless he is stalling for cowen to deliver something.If cowen has two weeks after the election before he goes i hate too think what will be given away belonging to the state to big buiness and cronies!.

beagga

tipptom wrote: »

Yep,can picture kenny now,(when his pr team release him when the election is won),waving the finance bill and saying its not ours,nothing we can do about it,was here when we got here.
Lowry said he couldnt support ff if brian cowen was not leader,shows his judgement,unless he is stalling for cowen to deliver something.If cowen has two weeks after the election before he goes i hate too think what will be given away belonging to the state to big buiness and cronies!.

You dont have to wait to see the "jobs for the boys" according to the indo

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ff-stuffing-quangos-with-cronies-during-its-last-days-in-office-2498058.html

tipptom

Yea,its not even that,cause thats just normal run of the mill ff cronyism,its the two weeks after election and handover when the voting is done,it will be like the iraqis leaving saudi lighting oil wells cause they know the people have spoken,"the bastards",and just throwing stuff to supporters cause they know all is lost anyway.

mikemac

I find it hard to believe that Noel Coonan is the strongest candidate in Tipp North that FG can find.
As backbenchers go, he is invisible.

Fair enough he got elected last time so that wouldn't replace him.

But he'll take the 3rd seat and if FF weren't so toxic at the minute, he'd probably manage to lose it!

beagga

Yes, I would agree he is a weak candidate for FG but
as you said he got elected last time and its local politics that probably
wins him his seat.

Did he reach the quota last time or was it that everyone else was eleminated?

mikemac

I don't know how to do screenshots
http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2007&cons=218

O'Meara eliminated in Count 5
Michael Smith eliminated in Count 6 so Hoctor and Coonan got in. So both of them elected right at the end

Just think he's a weak candidate. If he had failed last time someone else would have gotten the FG nomination.

On another note, Seamie Morris got close to a respectable 4%. Not a hope of him being elected but he'll do well. Hoctor will be losing a lot of her Nenagh votes

beagga

feelingstressed wrote: »

I don't know how to do screenshots
http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2007&cons=218

O'Meara eliminated in Count 5
Michael Smith eliminated in Count 6 so Hoctor and Coonan got in. So both of them elected right at the end

Just think he's a weak candidate. If he had failed last time someone else would have gotten the FG nomination.

On another note, Seamie Morris got close to a respectable 4%. Not a hope of him being elected but he'll do well. Hoctor will be losing a lot of her Nenagh votes

Yes but will both morris and kelly pick up a lot of these?

Cat Melodeon

feelingstressed wrote: »

On another note, Seamie Morris got close to a respectable 4%. Not a hope of him being elected but he'll do well.

Jim Ryan got more 1st preference votes than Morris last election, but I doubt Ryan will be running this time out. Does anyone know if any other candidates are likely to run (Greens/Ind)?

Cat Melodeon

On another note, Alan Kelly is holding a campaign meeting in the Abbey Court in Nenagh tomorrow night (Wed 26th Jan) at 7.30 pm.

I've emailed the other candidates for details of their meetings and will post them as I get them.

Cat Melodeon

Seamus Morris (Sinn Fein) is having his campaign launch on Saturday Jan 29th in the Hibernian Inn, Nenagh from 4pm-5pm.

http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=195583580456406

Cat Melodeon

Michael Lowry will be having a campaign launch Feb 4th. Full details will be posted in the local media (Tipp Star/Tipp FM etc).

Cat Melodeon

Noel Coonan (FG) will be having campaign meetings the first 2 weekends in February, details to be confirmed.

SARZY

Cat Melodeon wrote: »

On another note, Alan Kelly is holding a campaign meeting in the Abbey Court in Nenagh tomorrow night (Wed 26th Jan) at 7.30 pm.

I hear Alan Kelly is on Prime Time tonight 27th.

hinault

I live in North Tipperary.

Mr Lowry will not be getting any votes from me.
:mad::mad::mad:

jprboy

Coonan worried as archaeologist Donal 'Indiana' O' Regan throws his fedora in ring...........

http://www.politics.ie/elections/149425-coonan-worried-archaeologist-donal-indiana-o-regan-throws-his-fedora-ring.html

Cat Melodeon

From Tipp Star 2006
http://www.tipperarystar.ie/news/Donal39s-hat-in-election-ring.1498004.jp
Donal O'Regan, who holds an honours degree in archaeology and history from UCD, stated this week that he plans to run in North Tipperary as an independent candidate and is standing on an anti-corruption, pro-heritage, pro-good development, Nenagh Hospital, health, roads, infra-structure, enterprise and employment ticket.

The independent candidate is PRO of the County Tipperary Historical Society and is currently pursuing post graduate research. He is also a playwright, poet and song writer.

Just what we need - a playwriting, poem-composing, song-writing archeologist.

In any of the few articles I've found about him, they all say "well-known local archeologist" yet I've never heard of him. Did he even run in the last election (when the above article was written)? He's not listed as having run on electionsireland.org.

Cat Melodeon

Cat Melodeon wrote: »

Michael Lowry will be having a campaign launch Feb 4th. Full details will be posted in the local media (Tipp Star/Tipp FM etc).

Anner Hotel, Thurles, Fri Feb 4th at 8.30 pm, as per Mr Lowry on twitter. No word from Maire Hoctor's camp.