Prolonged cold spell on the way

maquiladora

18Z GFS is out to 120 hours and looks nice so far.

delw

isle of man wrote: »

you know i have been reading on here since the last year,

and norm i come on read all your great posts and 99% of the time your all spot on, does not matter what weather it is you all tend to get it right.
And norm you all agree on what it will be.

Now this is a confusing time as 1 or 2 of you that i follow and trust in your wise words of wisdom are not agreeing.

ooooo i just dont know who to think is right.

so i shall be over here

---

>















sitting on the fence:D

is there room for 1 more on that fence isle of man

arctictree

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS is out to 120 hours and looks nice so far.

Yep, looks like a bit of an upgrade to me. Max temp in Dublin on Thursday at 2 or 3c and lots of precip around....

darkman2

Two day snowfest in the East of the country on the 18z on Friday and Saturday - that will change but the trend remains the same. Looking good!:)

darkman2

Progged max temps on the 18z for next Saturday :pac:

arctictree

darkman2 wrote: »

Two day snowfest in the East of the country on the 18z on Friday and Saturday - that will change but the trend remains the same. Looking good!:)

Jeez, complete snowmageddon. Pity its at t+144. Nice to look at though....

WolfeIRE

snow showers on higher ground for sure. And you can include northern third of country in that same bracket.

dbyrne

OK Handbags at 10 paces..... cant we not all just get along...

I just hope there will be snow in one form or another, Im off this week and it would be really nice to not be working when it is snowing for once. I have my 2 sleighs ready and I would really like to be able to use them instead of looking at the snow from work or being stuck in my car in it... oh yeah must buy some de icer while I think of it.

Pangea

Towards the end of next week met eireann said the showers will be coming down from northerly direction instead of east so hopefully I will have my turn for some snow showers then.

WolfeIRE

you have to share Michael McIntyre's enthusiasm for snow:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DWtZQmjvqA

ninebeanrows

Expect the week to work like this (Rough Guide):

Monday - Wednesday

Bright days with light Easterly and Northeasterly breezes.
Cool days 5-9c, frost beginning to set in during the nights. Getting sharper
as period goes on. Few hail, rain showers in East/ North on Wednesday

Thursday
Cold digs in as shortwave low pushes into east Britain. Potential for some precip over east probably rain-sleet perhaps turning to snow on higher ground.

Friday
East/NE flow sets up, true cold air, below zero DP's. Showers turn to sleet/snow. Sharp frosts.

Saturday - Sunday

Very cold air overhead, showers of snow, accumulating in places. Eastern regions at highest risk of snowfall. Daytime temps struggling to 1-2c while nightime severe frosts temps down to -7c.

Min

Hello to winter 2010/2011.

Ice, snow and cold hands on the way....


....plus the frozen pipes...

maquiladora

Very entertaining FI on the 18Z GFS. Doesn't seem to be any real breakdown of the cold there.

JanuarySnowstor

Weathercheck wrote: »

Expect the week to work like this (Rough Guide):

Monday - Wednesday

Bright days with light Easterly and Northeasterly breezes.
Cool days 5-9c, frost beginning to set in during the nights. Getting sharper
as period goes on. Few hail, rain showers in East/ North on Wednesday

Thursday
Cold digs in as shortwave low pushes into east Britain. Potential for some precip over east probably rain-sleet perhaps turning to snow on higher ground.

Friday
East/NE flow sets up, true cold air, below zero DP's. Showers turn to sleet/snow. Sharp frosts.

Saturday - Sunday

Very cold air overhead, showers of snow, accumulating in places. Eastern regions at highest risk of snowfall. Daytime temps struggling to 1-2c while nightime severe frosts temps down to -7c.

Erm, we are looking at the most astounding charts in internet history.
The above summarises an ordinary November week. Sharp frosts? We will have sharp frosts from tomorrow night with frost becoming severe from Monday night, very severe ther after with frost slow to thaw by day after wed if at all. I would also suggest away from windward coasts that from thurs on everything will be of snow. I'm surprised wc, perhaps you are getting 'gerrymurphyaitis':D

Have to say I thought his forecast was a disgrace tonight considering what's looming. Cool with a risk of sleet, come off it!!!!!
Ok ok he mentioned the word cold

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Erm, we are looking at the most astounding charts in internet history.
The above summarises an ordinary November week. Sharp frosts? We will have sharp frosts from tomorrow night with frost becoming severe from Monday night, very severe ther after with frost slow to thaw by day after wed if at all. I would also suggest away from windward coasts that from thurs on everything will be of snow. I'm surprised wc, perhaps you are getting 'gerrymurphyaitis':D

Have to say I thought his forecast was a disgrace tonight considering what's looming. Cool with a risk of sleet, come off it!!!!!
Ok ok he mentioned the word cold

It looks like a very cold spell of weather and long-lasting but history has taught me that it takes a bit of time for cold to get inbedded and for the showers heading in over the irish sea to turn into 100% snow.

And then it takes the optimum microscale pattern to develop to allow this lake effect Irish sea train develop.

Any other developments of precip generally have big complications with warm sectors etc.

It is very hard to get synoptics that deliver snow here as we know.

But yes there will be lots of ice and it looks like a very impressive spell.

maquiladora

Some brave forecast calls flying around. I still think there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to 850 temps and precipitation or lack of.

If I had to make a forecast I'd go for "Cold, getting colder with a risk of wintry showers later in the week."

I just hope people won't be too disappointed if the latest GFS output doesn't turn out to be exactly right 5 or 6 days from now.

For example, look at the snowfall accum charts for the same period but based on the 12Z and the 18Z GFS runs from today.

12Z :


18Z :


Totally up in the air. Pardon the pun. :pac:

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Two day snowfest in the East of the country on the 18z on Friday and Saturday - that will change but the trend remains the same. Looking good!:)

You're dead right it will change!

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Erm, we are looking at the most astounding charts in internet history.
The above summarises an ordinary November week. Sharp frosts? We will have sharp frosts from tomorrow night with frost becoming severe from Monday night, very severe ther after with frost slow to thaw by day after wed if at all. I would also suggest away from windward coasts that from thurs on everything will be of snow. I'm surprised wc, perhaps you are getting 'gerrymurphyaitis':D

Have to say I thought his forecast was a disgrace tonight considering what's looming. Cool with a risk of sleet, come off it!!!!!
Ok ok he mentioned the word cold

Disgrace? Because he decided to use common sense and not mention something that's more than likely not going to happen in the next five days? If the Eagle were on he'd have said the same - would you be calling him a disgrace too?

Weathercheck wrote: »

It looks like a very cold spell of weather and long-lasting but history has taught me that it takes a bit of time for cold to get inbedded and for the showers heading in over the irish sea to turn into 100% snow.

And then it takes the optimum microscale pattern to develop to allow this lake effect Irish sea train develop.

Any other developments of precip generally have big complications with warm sectors etc.

It is very hard to get synoptics that deliver snow here as we know.

But yes there will be lots of ice and it looks like a very impressive spell.

Exactly

maquiladora wrote: »

Some brave forecast calls flying around. I still think there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to 850 temps and precipitation or lack of.

If I had to make a forecast I'd go for "Cold, getting colder with a risk of wintry showers later in the week."

I just hope people won't be too disappointed if the latest GFS output doesn't turn out to be exactly right 5 or 6 days from now.

For example, look at the snowfall accum charts for the same period but based on the 12Z and the 18Z GFS runs from today.

12Z :


18Z :


Totally up in the air. Pardon the pun. :pac:

Exactly

ninebeanrows

A fine fax chart, dismissing ECM shortwave.

ECM ensembles indicate shortwave development over N Norway not favoured.

maquiladora

The Evening Hearld would love this :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

latest model runs have significantly upgraded the lifetime of this cold spell.

ADD ON from the weather outlook.

Notable cold spell expected, snow likely for many
Cold weather is often marginal and difficult to forecast in Britain, but we do expect the next couple of weeks to bring quite a potent spell of wintry weather, which will be notable given that we are still only in November. Many people are likely to see some sleet or snow, with significant accumulations possible as we head towards next weekend.
Snow
The change to colder conditions will begin during the next couple of days as temperatures begin to fall in the north, and through next week much colder weather looks set to extend south across the whole country. By the middle of next week showers will be turning increasingly to sleet and snow, especially in northern and eastern regions. Towards the end of the week it looks as though there will be an increasing chance of more prolonged periods of sleet or snow pushing south across the country.

their provisional winter outlook also refers to that battleground i mentioned earlier regarding the upcoming cold spell when the atlantic tries to restablish istelf over us

The battleground between cold continental air and mild Atlantic air may well shift around close to the UK. In the UK the heaviest falls of snow often occur when mild and wet air from the Atlantic runs into dense cold and dry continental air. This can lead to the formation of heavy and slow moving bands of sleet and snow. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations in the west of Britain and Northern Ireland having significant snowfalls, but the coldest weather is likely to persist for longer in eastern Britain.

thetonynator

M.T. forecasted this about a month ago . . .which is a pretty good forecast!!!

Musicman2000

Some rollercoaster ride, Changing the whole time:)

Mountainsandh

Please please please please peeelease weather people make it come during the week
I'm in the South East and a bit higher up than the rest (220 m asl) so fingers crossed I get a day off .

mickger844posts

All the models look good for this time next week but its still a bit off yet, thats me just being a bit on the safe side and not getting my hopes up too much. Personally any bit of snow would be a bonus but mainly id be happy with some very low night temps and a few heavy frosts. In my location we rarely get snow, last winter we had one day of wet snow and that was it. Its great to be on that roller coaster again though

WolfeIRE

i think the models have been going in one direction pretty much all the time. just dreading them heading the other way. so far so good

isle of man

delw wrote: »

is there room for 1 more on that fence isle of man

i come along, more the better :cool:

BEASTERLY

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i think the models have been going in one direction pretty much all the time. just dreading them heading the other way. so far so good

Yea it has been nothing but upgrades, there is an inevetability about downgrades to come. Everytime i watch the models come out i feel like shouting ''BANK'', don't want to risk the next run being a horror story.

thetonynator

Yr.no are ridiculous, minimum temperatures forecast for all next week of -2 . . .

Happyman42

Could we get a Jean Byrne lay man prediction here? Is it gonna be hot or cold?
Or you could try rearranging the above words ^^....lol

thetonynator

Happyman42 wrote: »

Could we get a Jean Byrne lay man prediction here? Is it gonna be (she is) hot or cold?

Like that???:P