Prolonged cold spell on the way

MetLuver · 21-11-2010 12:09pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I feel sorry for him that he's missing out on this discussion.

Lets get some sort of pettition going to get him back, the place just isn't the same without him, he's quite famous in my house eventhough I'm the only one that reads the thread. Bring Back Owenc!!:mad::D

MetLuver · 21-11-2010 12:14pm

snaps wrote: »

Yes I agree, perhaps we should have a "free the Coleraine one" campaign! It wont be the same without him this year on this rollercoaster ride that we may well have.

Snap! snaps, just saw your post, you got there before me:o

nacho libre · 21-11-2010 12:16pm

A GH that strength will surely take some shifting. Quite obviously there will be a breakdown at some point, but the further back its put the greater our chances of a nationwide heavy snowfall when it finally does come. It's also fantastic to see such charts for late November.
While some might think they are a waste at this time of year, there is no guarantee such mouthwatering synoptics will come along again in the optimum period, January, for deep cold. Given our location I don't want to be standing in mild and dreary weather waiting for a taxi that's not going to come!

sunbabe08 · 21-11-2010 12:18pm

ohhhh frost on the roofs down here in cork. yay winter has arrived. to early to be praying for snow??

Kippure · 21-11-2010 12:25pm

LeighShrimper sums up this mornings runs perfectly

Cold locked in from start to finish on GFS this morn. No sign of the atlantic at all! With an immense winter storm (Channel low?) about day 9. Snow showers, longer spells of snow, Ice days, harsh penetrating frosts. About perfect really. Bank!

Listen to this while looking through the runs....:P

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs8B6mGnecY&a=GxdCwVVULXewwnv09nE4oGn02SqG3mZd&list=ML&playnext=1

maquiladora · 21-11-2010 12:31pm

As DE said earlier, all the good stuff on the charts is still off in FI and some models are pushing back on the deeper cold. The problem with that is if it keeps getting pushed back then the breakdown will be upon us and we'll still be waiting for -8 uppers to arrive. :pac:

Anyway, all eyes to farming weather forecast on RTE 1 after the news at 12:35.

nacho libre · 21-11-2010 12:44pm

maquiladora wrote: »

As DE said earlier, all the good stuff on the charts is still off in FI and some models are pushing back on the deeper cold. The problem with that is if it keeps getting pushed back then the breakdown will be upon us and we'll still be waiting for -8 uppers to arrive. :pac:

Anyway, all eyes to farming weather forecast on RTE 1 after the news at 12:35.

well it better such charts are in fi than not appearing at all. also, while the charts are likely to downgrade some what from the current eye candy on the next run, there doesn't seem to be any indication that raging zonality is set to happen any time soon- of course a milder period will happen at some point, but the longer its delayed the greater the chance of a frontal snowfall event for many.

maquiladora · 21-11-2010 12:46pm

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=6&ville=Dublin&runpara=0

06Z ensembles for Dublin. Notice the mean indicating a gradual breakdown starting around the end of the month with the operational run staying below the mean at all times in FI.

maquiladora · 21-11-2010 12:56pm

nacho libre wrote: »

well it better such charts are in fi than not appearing at all.

Oh I agree, its very entertaining and great fun to see what the models are showing, esp since its only November still. I've never seen the likes of some of those FI charts for this time of year. :cool:

Kippure · 21-11-2010 12:57pm

Great country file forecast

maquiladora · 21-11-2010 1:09pm

No change on the UKMO outlook for the UK to Dec 20th apart for a little extra detail on where the "small chance" of a breakdown would come from :

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Dec 2010 to Monday 20 Dec 2010:

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here.

Updated: 1154 on Sun 21 Nov 2010

eskimocat · 21-11-2010 1:21pm

gosh i have missed this forum!!! no access for last few days and look what happens!!

It will be interesting to see what happens. My concern is that it seems when we get charts like this, often the air temp etc hasn't been cold enough long enough to see proper snow and we end up with that mostly rainy sleet ( tech term??) or just a harder frost.

Since Oct was so mild are we behind on the general cooling of the country???

Kippure · 21-11-2010 1:27pm

eskimocat wrote: »

gosh i have missed this forum!!! no access for last few days and look what happens!!

It will be interesting to see what happens. My concern is that it seems when we get charts like this, often the air temp etc hasn't been cold enough long enough to see proper snow and we end up with that mostly rainy sleet ( tech term??) or just a harder frost.

Since Oct was so mild are we behind on the general cooling of the country???

DOnt worry, once the cold arrives it will become entranched, the runs will change dramatically, beyond 3 days it will change and change, it will be the small details that are inportant, like wind direction troughs, shower activity etc.

nacho libre · 21-11-2010 1:33pm

Kippure wrote: »

Great country file forecast

what did it say exactly?

Su Campu · 21-11-2010 1:33pm

The 06Z GFS is a downgrade and doesn't show the -10°C 850 line reaching Ireland at all, even over next weekend.

The source of the coldest air will be northern Russia, Lappland, trekking southwestwards down the spine of Norway and over the North Sea towards Scotland and the Irish Sea. This sea track is some 250-300 miles. The coldest water temperature along this track is 7-8°C off the coast of Norway, increasing to 9-10°C off Scotland, and 12-13°C in the Irish Sea. Assuming cooling of a degree or so on these values by the end of the week, it's still a pretty long track to expect sensible heat flux not to rapidly warm out the lower layers. Don't forget, the 850hPa temperature is 4500-5000ft up - what really matters is the bottom 1000ft layer. There will of course be snow above this layer - what matters is how temperature and wet-bulb temperatures are in the lowest layers.

Precipitation forecasts are fairly bleak for the coming week, but where there is some, I would expect there to be white peaks on the higher hills and mountains. But when I talk of snow I mean snow for where the vast majority of the population lives - ie. below 100m amsl. There will of course be people on here reporting snow in their area, but I wouldn't expect many will be living at low levels.

I could be wrong in all this, as thickness values are marginal at the moment, but if they retreat eastwards, as I suspect they will do, then it will be eastern England, not Ireland, that will have the best chance of low level white stuff.

Kippure · 21-11-2010 1:46pm

nacho libre wrote: »

what did it say exactly?

Same as the irish farming forecast, colder as the week goes on, wintery showers on northern and eastern coasts

maquiladora · 21-11-2010 1:47pm

Gerry Murphy said some of the showers becoming wintry as we move into next weekend. That forecast was spot on with what I have been thinking this morning.

We are a about a week away for a risk of wintry showers in some areas. At the moment, nothing more than that.

12Z ECM should be very interesting this evening.

maquiladora · 21-11-2010 1:50pm

Su Campu wrote: »

The 06Z GFS is a downgrade and doesn't show the -10°C 850 line reaching Ireland at all, even over next weekend.

Yep. Although on the weatheronline charts -10 does briefly appear, it's a clear downgrade from the 0Z. Will have to wait for the 12Z to see if this will be the start of a trend or just a wobble.

Speak Now · 21-11-2010 1:54pm

snaps wrote: »

Yes I agree, perhaps we should have a "free the Coleraine one" campaign! It wont be the same without him this year on this rollercoaster ride that we may well have.

I won't be signing that

Believe it or not i think he was actually banned for he's carry on in the politics forums not the weather :pac:

Nae Youse down south wouldn't understand

anyway interesting weather watching for the time of year.

I've also come to the conclusion that Su Campo is Gerry Murphy and darkman is John Eagleton and as often happened last year the weather will fall somewhere in between

thetonynator · 21-11-2010 2:04pm

all those lovely snow charts from netweather that i posted yesterday are gone . . .:(

maquiladora · 21-11-2010 2:07pm

thetonynator wrote: »

all those lovely snow charts from netweather that i posted yesterday are gone . . .:(

They will be back again, and then gone again, and back then....

It's not called Fantasy Island for nuthin! :pac:

nacho libre · 21-11-2010 2:09pm

i would see it as a bad sign if there was a lot of precipitation forecast for this week, as you can be sure there would be warm sectors contained within any precipitation forecast, so the correct wet- bulb temperature, dewpoints, and all the other criteria needed for snow would not be in our favour anyway
if this cold pattern sustains we'll get snow eventually, even if the -10 air at the 850hpa level doesn't quite reach us.

thetonynator · 21-11-2010 2:17pm

Min wrote: »

From my lack of expertise as a model reader, I don't see any breakdown in the near terms, unfortunately I say as I have some cattle still on grass and that might have to change this week.

We're the same, good bit of grass left and want to gt it grazed before the cattle go in but we will have to put them in next week . . .

nacho libre · 21-11-2010 2:18pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I've also come to the conclusion that Su Campo is Gerry Murphy and darkman is John Eagleton and as often happened last year the weather will fall somewhere in between

Good man Gerry Seinfield. That's very true:pac:

thetonynator · 21-11-2010 2:19pm

maquiladora wrote: »

They will be back again, and then gone again, and back then....

It's not called Fantasy Island for nuthin! :pac:

I know i just get excited when i see them . . .snow days!!!

21-11-2010 2:19pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

and darkman is John Eagleton and as often happened last year the weather will fall somewhere in between

Don't you mean Evylyn Cusack

Here in south wicklow by the way we have been on an irish sea shower train since the middle of the night
It's lashing outside now again and very dull with a temp of only 5c
This bodes very well for the arrival of very cold air the week after next,should this trend persist... (it's a big should)