Prolonged cold spell on the way

darkman2

Snow or no snow - what is coming is the most extreme start to Winter certainly in my lifetime - im young btw. It's very important people get the message aswell. I don't say the stuff I do for the good of cold fanatics - you have farmers and industry dependent on the weather. This is going to drive soil temperatures down by quite alot - and that matters because that is why last winter was so consistently icy. The ground was cold. I think we can safely speculate December will be an icy month at this stage.

But also we have to say that there is a real risk here of disruptive weather from snowfall or ice. But there is a few days to go yet so the fence might be the ideal place for some.

H2UMrsRobinson

That's what I love about the weather forum. A 13 page thread (I'm on 20 p.p.p) on the possibility that it's going to get quite cold as we approach the begginning of December and it might snow. Who'd a thunk it!

darkman2

Well, the descent has begun in terms of temperature.

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Therefore, this system will bring snow at first should it track NE over ireland and depending on how intense the blocking system is to our NE and NW could be forced to track back SE or S. Either way I am confident that there will be a widespread snow event resulting from the upcoming cold spell.

This event may signal the end of the upcoming cold spell but may also herald the next phase of an even longer cold spell of weather.

Just by twopence worth...

a valuable twopence;)

it would seem, based on the ukmo outlook, that they are confident any milder incursion will be beaten back. let's hope so!

thetonynator

Coleraine was mentioned earlier, just looked at owenc's profile, it says he is banned, and he hasnt posted since september. so it looks like there is no chance of him coming back!!!

M.T. Cranium

I'm fully in the mood now after we got 5 cms of snow here on Friday night, and it has stayed around all day on Saturday with the high only reaching about 2 C. Mountains appeared from the low cloud with a fresh coating of white powder too.

nacho libre

thetonynator wrote: »

Coleraine was mentioned earlier, just looked at owenc's profile, it says he is banned, and he hasnt posted since september. so it looks like there is no chance of him coming back!!!

I feel sorry for him that he's missing out on this discussion.

Rabble Rabble

thetonynator wrote: »

Coleraine was mentioned earlier, just looked at owenc's profile, it says he is banned, and he hasnt posted since september. so it looks like there is no chance of him coming back!!!

he should be pardoned if it snows in Coleraine.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm fully in the mood now after we got 5 cms of snow here on Friday night, and it has stayed around all day on Saturday with the high only reaching about 2 C. Mountains appeared from the low cloud with a fresh coating of white powder too.

well M.T. if you are right about this winter i think all snow addicts on this forum should commission a statue in your honour come March 1st.:pac:

It's great fun posting on the weather forum when sozzled, even better when such an impressive cold spell looks to be on the way:D

darkman2

GME is first of 00z's out - now down to 108hrs for serious cold

Elmo5

Still looking good it seems and can't see a breakdown on the morning's runs!

From Met Eireann's updated forecast this morning for weds/thurs next week:

"Winds will be mainly light north to northeast bringing some wintry showers to northwest, north and eastern coastal areas"

maquiladora

Not feeling as optimistic this morning. I think what we'll end up with is a four or five day cold spell with a couple of wintry showers followed by a wet breakdown into milder weather.

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

Not feeling as optimistic this morning. I think what we'll end up with is a four or five day cold spell with a couple of wintry showers followed by a wet breakdown into milder weather.

Is this based on the models or your gut feeling maq??

WolfeIRE

Models look excellent for snow potential come Friday and the weekend.

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

Is this based on the models or your gut feeling maq??

Mainly just a gut feeling. Of course I would love to be proven wrong in the end though.

Still, a spell of cold weather is on the cards anyway, even if it doesn't turn out to be a long lasting or snowy one, that's better than the usual weather this time of year.

snaps

thetonynator wrote: »

Coleraine was mentioned earlier, just looked at owenc's profile, it says he is banned, and he hasnt posted since september. so it looks like there is no chance of him coming back!!!

Yes I agree, perhaps we should have a "free the Coleraine one" campaign! It wont be the same without him this year on this rollercoaster ride that we may well have.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Not feeling as optimistic this morning. I think what we'll end up with is a four or five day cold spell with a couple of wintry showers followed by a wet breakdown into milder weather.

Huh? Why!

Charts look great, if anything any breakdown is pushed well back.

Still big difference between ECM and GFS/Rest of models as to the shortwave over Svalbard t 72hrs.

If ECM was right would delay cold by near 48hrs.

WolfeIRE

snaps wrote: »

Yes I agree, perhaps we should have a "free the Coleraine one" campaign! It wont be the same without him this year on this rollercoaster ride that we may well have.

no, it won;t be the same thank God

Min

From my lack of expertise as a model reader, I don't see any breakdown in the near terms, unfortunately I say as I have some cattle still on grass and that might have to change this week.

irish1967

He could get 6ft of snow and temps of -30 like last year and we won't know.

gally74

got my pipe buired yesterday at the front wall, froze a couple of times last year so put it down a further foot.

lots of cars drove by looking like a "what is he up too?"

little did they know that i follow the weather forum and have lots of friends looking for snow, frost and tend to be quite good at forcasting!

im on for freeing colraine aswell

Redsunset

Personally im glad about the prospects of some wintryness however it's not offically winter yet and im going to let this horse run.

Deep Easterly

I think the overall forecast pattern over the north Atlantic is taking an interesting turn but in terms of it bringing interesting weather for Ireland, I can't see it bringing much in the short to medium term at least. Yesterday I used the term 'mediocre' to describe it, but I think this is too postive a term so I think 'nondescript' would be more suitable. East and north has the best chance of grabbing a few cold sleety showers at best but that is hardly anything to celebrate -although having said that hopefully these showers will prove to be a point of interest in themselves with perhaps a chance of hail or a rumble of thunder.

All the really interesting charts remain in FI territory, but that is better than them not showing up at all I suppose:

ECMWF 228hrs:






Not sure if this link has been posted but good for monitoring sea temps in the Irish Sea:

http://coastobs.pol.ac.uk/modl/metfcst/irst/latest.php

with animation option for the last 7 days to.

arctictree

Bucketing rain/hail here with a temp of 3.1c. I think this bodes well for the next few days....

arctictree

Thats quite a mild windflow source on that 228 ecm DE.
We wouldn't want that to continue! The blue would soon be replaced!

arctictree wrote: »

Bucketing rain/hail here with a temp of 3.1c. I think this bodes well for the next few days....

Agreed,there were some almighty downpours and a strong wind here during the night straight off the sea.It was mostly the remains of stuff that originated in the North sea but it was very loud,I'm surprised there was no thunder with it.There was hail.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats quite a mild windflow source on that 228 ecm DE.
We wouldn't want that to continue! The blue would soon be replaced!

Very true BB, but a set up like that if it was to occur would greater the chances of mega countrywide snowfall as the frontal boundary to the SW pushes up against the cold air to the north. What we want to see is this front stalling over the south of Ireland and not making any progress north before it slips in over southern UK.

If only that chart was within 48hrs territory in mid-January!!

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Very true BB, but a set up like that if it was to occur would greater the chances of mega countrywide snowfall as the frontal boundary to the SW pushes up against the cold air to the north. What we want to see is this front stalling over the south of Ireland and not making any progress north before it slips in over southern UK.

If only that chart was within 48hrs territory in mid-January!!

Aye-when you look at it that way,it's similar to january 1982.

(Brilliant forthnight that led to but the rest of the winter was non descript iirc)

maquiladora

Out to 150 on the 06Z GFS, 850 temps not as low as on the 0Z.

Out to 192 and FI is staying nice and cold.

WolfeIRE

850s may not be as low but the cold remain in place until early december still.

precipitation will not be widespread. some severe night frosts and temps barely lifting above freezing in places by next weekend

maquiladora

WolfeIRE wrote: »

850s may not be as low but the cold remain in place until early december still.

precipitation will not be widespread. some severe night frosts and temps barely lifting above freezing in places by next weekend

A fun to watch FI on that run alright. France/Central Europe bombarded with a monster snowstorm and then high pressure builds back in the Atlantic again.