Prolonged cold spell on the way

maquiladora

0Z ECM has the signs of a longer lasting cold spell in FI.

tylercollins

Winger_PL wrote: »

Am I correct by thinking there's a slight chance of a few flakes falling (but not lasting) in Coleraine around Wednesday morning, at least according to GFS?
And no, it has nothing to do with a certain forum member :rolleyes: I'm just trying to check if I'm getting better at understanding the charts.

Completely off topic, but why does Coleraine get mentioned alot here lol

Now thats sweet-A flow from the nether regions of the scandinavian artic and beyond.
It's one of the two most potent artic sources.
The other being a straight run across Europe from siberia in a line via moscow and copenhagen.
The problem is it's early so you need this flow to sustain itself for at least a week to bring fruity results.I'd also say for sea level coastal snow in the Dublin area,you need minus nine 850 mb temps and lower untill that feed has sustained itself for long enough to feed enough bitterly cold surface air down along with the cold higher air.
Thats crucial given the sea temps being high along with the air immediately above,especially the irish sea.
Showers will happen as that very cold upper air travels over the warmer irish sea.Expect thunder.
But if RH's aren't low enough and dp's,thats going to make it rain and sleet on the coast with bumper snow showers eventually to the hills near the sea.
Sustain the flow and it will come to the rest of us.

Will it do this,is the question.
The above chart is FI so I don't know.

a few words about the Whest in that scenario...It's going to get mighty frosty,several degree's below under clear skies there at night.you may need to borrow blankets from the people in the East before we demand them back when it snows
That said,introduce an atlantic front and the west would see a lot of snow,or an occlusion from the East or south.

John mac

tylercollins wrote: »

Completely off topic, but why does Coleraine get mentioned alot here lol

a poster from that part of the world was an avid snow watcher. (have a look at threads from last jan)

Su Campu

Exactly BB, I think we need to be cautious when throwing around comments like "snow for all, and plenty of it". Thicknesses aren't forecast to to go below around 530dm ish, which is borderline for sea-level snow even in January, so this with the combination of high sea surface temps and hence a well mixed boundary layer, a probable inversion to cap deep convection, and a wet and still relatively warm landmass, most people will not see the white stuff, except those living a few hundred metres asl. Indeed, many peeople won't see any precipitation at all this week, as showers will be hit and miss.

Of course, as you say, this will change the longer the cold spell lasts, but up to say Friday I think people may be expecting too much.

derekon

Su Campu wrote: »

Exactly BB, I think we need to be cautious when throwing around comments like "snow for all, and plenty of it". Thicknesses aren't forecast to to go below around 530dm ish, which is borderline for sea-level snow even in January, so this with the combination of high sea surface temps and hence a well mixed boundary layer, a probable inversion to cap deep convection, and a wet and still relatively warm landmass, most people will not see the white stuff, except those living a few hundred metres asl. Indeed, many peeople won't see any precipitation at all this week, as showers will be hit and miss.

Of course, as you say, this will change the longer the cold spell lasts, but up to say Friday I think people may be expecting too much.

As ever Su Campu, you are the voice of reason. This whole hysteria building up about snow next week (last week of November!) is bound to lead to disappointment.

Last winter, when snow was anticipated you hit the nail on the head due to your deep knowledge of all the components required for snowfall in Ireland.

I would ask people on the board not to get carried away and watch out for Su Campu's posts about snow - they are generally correct

My own view for next week is that Dublin will not see any snow . However, don't be disappointed as winter does not kick in until December 1st and there will be plenty of time to get back on the roller coaster

maquiladora

Worth pointing out that the 0Z ECM is showing a cold, mostly very dry run that would bring little or no precip of any kind, high ground or not.

06Z GFS rolling out now...

maquiladora

arctictree

Here's my favorite chart from this mornings ECM:



And the corresponding precip:



IMO, the Wicklow mountains could get a dumping from that. Would be more marginal at the coast. Uppers are -5c so just borderline. Also, its not too far away either...

BEASTERLY

The GFS puts the breakdown back to 300hrs:pac: Then really out in FI at 384hrs it looks like another easterly being set up:D.

Did someone give all the models cocaine? They're gone mad this morning!

arctictree

@maquiladora, looks like the charts are starting to agree on some sort of event Wednesday night/Thursday...

maquiladora

06Z GFS does bring -8/-9 850 temps to the north of the country for a while in FI and pushes the breakdown back another couple of days, so those are positive signs.

Figuramatyi

Dublin diagram: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-753eur_g05.png

That's something indeed!
We poor westerners might not see snow just yet, but cold will fit the European Xmas market on Eyre Square nicely

BEASTERLY

We need the Eagle back on RTE to announce this POLAR LOW!!

WolfeIRE

Progress of colder upper air temps in the next week.



edit:
As Maq said, the return of milder atlantic southwesterlies has been put back by at least 2-3 days in this morning's runs. Therefore, we will have at least 10 days of cold weather acording to this morning's runs.

maquiladora

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Dec 2010 to Sunday 19 Dec 2010:

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frosts, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, giving the risk of further rain, sleet and snow in some parts.

Updated: 1142 on Sat 20 Nov 2010

UKMO still going cold/very cold in the UK with only a small chance of a breakdown before Dec 19th. Impressive.

maquiladora

An illustration of what could happen at 192 hours if the latest GFS verified. Snow for the Wicklow Mts and on high ground up north :



Important to remember that chart could look very different in just a few hours on the next run. Just putting it here now so we can look back in a week's time and compare it with reality.

Supercell

I wish I still lived in Annamoe, snow days off work on the cards there!

DOCARCH

Supercell wrote: »

I wish I still lived in Annamoe, snow days off work on the cards there!

I wished you still lived in Annamoe so we could get the reports and pictures!

Supercell

DOCARCH wrote: »

I wished you still lived in Annamoe so we could get the reports and pictures!

Just for old times sake, here's how it might look like in Annamoe Dublin next week (pic taken last winter there)

arctictree

DOCARCH wrote: »

I wished you still lived in Annamoe so we could get the reports and pictures!

Dont worry - I'm still here!!

Supercell

arctictree wrote: »

Dont worry - I'm still here!!

We expect pictures!!
Better make sure the camera battery is charged

DOCARCH

Supercell wrote: »

Just for old times sake, here's how it might look like in Annamoe Dublin next week (pic taken last winter there)

Are you sure that's not a picture from one of your foam parties?

Tabnabs

lucy2010

glencullen travel ? snow chains again ?

Supercell

Supercell wrote: »

Just for old times sake, here's how it might look like in Annamoe Dublin next week (pic taken last winter there)

Snow porn. Thats a great picture.

maquiladora

12Z GME.......

Redsunset

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDoDUC9M0Sg

Right thats it i couldn't resist:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

redsunset wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDoDUC9M0Sg

Right thats it i couldn't resist:D

I have had Jingle Bells in my head all day

MUSEIST

Anyone else notice how the -5 uppers are being pushed back on every run (until eventually they never arive)