Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

Tactical

Just getting up to speed on this one and getting interested.

Dare we hope for a decent wind event, dare we hope...:D Even the Met Eireann forecast looks promising.

I'll def post some updates from my location as things progress if it starts to get interesting.

Great to read all the developing information, fantastic to see all the effort put in by people.

M.T. Cranium

Just a quick note from me as I'm rushing around today, as of current obs and 18z model runs, I don't really see anything out of line with earlier expectations, this storm will have a brief ramping up of wind speeds about when the 984 to 976 mb contours drop southeast through Ireland, then a fairly long period of slack winds (it still appears) lasting from about 0300 to 0900 or 1200 (south) Monday, then moderately strong northeast winds setting up later Monday. If there is going to be any wind damage I would expect it in Kerry, Cork or Limerick, possibly Wexford also, but I think the risk is rather minimal. Fronts with this kind of low tend to be washed out and not as dynamic as similar shaped lows travelling in a more normal E-NE direction.

Now if you were out in a fishing trawler around 55N 18W (maybe nobody ever is) then I would say head to port because out there, 80 mph wind gusts and 40 ft seas likely. Those really high seas are probably going to head more for northern Spain and southwest France than any part of Ireland or even northwest France. The Irish Sea will probably develop fairly strong winds and 12-15 ft waves by late Sunday night. The tidal action will force a lot of water near shore at the Sunday night high tides, whether it's an all-out storm surge or just a gentle overtopping of lower seawalls.

There is bound to be a whole lot of people coming onto the forum Monday morning saying what the heck happened, it's dead calm outside. So we need to spread the word that the storm has a rather large slack centre or if you want to say the word, eye, and it might last as long as six hours or more as the track seems fixed on Donegal to Waterford for the low centre. Some models are showing a faintly more vigorous circulation, but even there, when you only see 10 mbs of pressure differential Valentia to Malin Head, that is quite sedate, big wind storms usually see a 20-25 mb pressure differential north to south.

Of course this storm still has time to reset and do the unexpected, which is why I will be putting on the strong coffee around 9 p.m. here (0400 there) and watching this like a hawk, but anyway, have to run now ... great discussion, tried to read all of it in 20 mins but skipped a few things. Looks quite icy for tonight and some of those showers could turn to wet snow before they give up the ghost.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS appears to be another slight upgrade. Pressure stays the same but the structure of the core of looks better.

Latest HIRLAM run showing something pretty similar set up wise, but pressure just very slightly higher:




A slightly tigher gradient around the main core but not enough to increase the actual windspeed before the low moves in; given the situation though, 12 to 24hrs out is purely FI!

Deep Easterly

Purely for fun but the latest ECM is showing a deeper low developing in the north Atlantic towards the end of next week than in previous runs:



Let's hope for storm thread part 2!

maquiladora

Nothing higher than a "perhaps storm force 10" on the sea area forecast.

Hells Belle

Hey Deep Easterly can I ask lurker question? On that last chart there are lots of F or upside down L type shapes, can I ask what they are, some have one line, some have 4. I can't find anything on the google! Is it windspeed?

Su Campu

Hells Belle wrote: »

Hey Deep Easterly can I ask lurker question? On that last chart there are lots of F or upside down L type shapes, can I ask what they are, some have one line, some have 4. I can't find anything on the google! Is it windspeed?

They're wind barbs. Each long long branch is 10 knots, a short one is 5 knots. A triangular one is 50 knots. Add them all up to get the wind speed for that barb

Diageio_Man

Hells Belle wrote: »

Hey Deep Easterly can I ask lurker question? On that last chart there are lots of F or upside down L type shapes, can I ask what they are, some have one line, some have 4. I can't find anything on the google! Is it windspeed?

heres some info for you
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Station_model

Deep Easterly

Hells Belle wrote: »

Hey Deep Easterly can I ask lurker question? On that last chart there are lots of F or upside down L type shapes, can I ask what they are, some have one line, some have 4. I can't find anything on the google! Is it windspeed?

Aye it tis indeed. Su Campu gave you the guts there.

Handy picture guide for reading wind barbs:



Hopeing someday we might see the 145 knt barb showing over Ireland. :cool:


Just to add, the barbs also show the direction of the wind. The ECM chart above shows a strong westerly out in the Atlantic, while the direction on the plot above would be NE if they were shown on a forecast chart.


A couple of handy docs from Meteoblue showing the beaufort scale, corresponding wind barbs and wind speeds:

For use on Land
For use at sea

Hells Belle

Thanks all you very lovely weather peeps, excitement, suspense and an education I am a bit drunkey being Sat night.... getting the emergency box tooled up now and I'm charging stuff all over the house, I love this!!

maquiladora

I was just thinking, if we can clock up 19 pages already on a system that isn't really all that promising can you imagine how bananas this place would be if we got a Christmas Eve 97 type storm!

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

I was just thinking, if we can clock up 19 pages already on a system that isn't really all that promising can you imagine how bananas this place would be if we got a Christmas Eve 97 type storm!

Thats true maq, i guess we have been starved of a decent system like xmas eve 97, so when we get the potential for something half decent we get all excited.

3fullback

Hi,

All , just looking at metcheck , and look and what it says for thurs 11th and fri 12th ???? :eek: wind speed ??? http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp?zipcode=galway

Hooter23

Do u know what the pressure of that Xmas eve storm was? I can still remember it lasting quite long and was so vicious the window pane was bending with the force of the wind :eek: and a big wooden shed in the garden lifted off.
Even though it was frightening I don't know why but I would like to experience it again:pac:

Deep Easterly

3fullback wrote: »

Hi,

All , just looking at metcheck , and look and what it says for thurs 11th and fri 12th ???? :eek: wind speed ??? http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp?zipcode=galway

Bring that on! :pac:

Su Campu

Here's the timing of the winds going on the 23Z TAFs (valid to midnight Sunday)

Dublin
3-5pm - S 17 gusting 27 kts
5-7pm - S 23 gusting 35 kts - Light rain
From 7pm - S 26 gusting 45 kts - moderate rain

Shannon
3-5pm - SE 20 gusting 30 kts - Light rain
5-10pm - S 25 gusting 40 kts - Moderate rain
From 10pm - NW 17 gusting 27 kts - Light to moderate showers

Cork
4-6pm - S 20 gusting 30 kts - Light rain
6-11pm - S 26 gusting 42 kts - Moderate rain

Connaught Airport
1-3pm - S 18 gusting 28 kts
3-5pm - S 24 gusting 36 kts - Light rain
5-10pm - S 27 gusting 44 kts - Moderate rain
From 10pm - NW 17 gusting 27 kts - Light to moderate showers

TheMilkyPirate

3fullback wrote: »

Hi,

All , just looking at metcheck , and look and what it says for thurs 11th and fri 12th ???? :eek: wind speed ??? http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp?zipcode=galway

LOL, That's the second time that's happened recently. Were obviously not in for those wind speeds!! (Were not are we? :P)

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

I was just thinking, if we can clock up 19 pages already on a system that isn't really all that promising can you imagine how bananas this place would be if we got a Christmas Eve 97 type storm!

Can you imagine if this weather forum existed in the 1960's, a decade when extreme events seemed to be more frequenct and intense? Mayhem I would reckon. I think it is just our luck that we exist in what surely must be the most boring and inept weather periods in history.

leahyl

Hooter23 wrote: »

Do u know what the pressure of that Xmas eve storm was? I can still remember it lasting quite long and was so vicious the window pane was bending with the force of the wind :eek: and a big wooden shed in the garden lifted off.
Even though it was frightening I don't know why but I would like to experience it again:pac:

http://www.rte.ie/ie/morningireland/entry/25_years_of_weather

was just reading this myself - the strength of those winds in Christmas 97 was unreal!

Hells Belle

mickger844posts wrote: »

Thats true maq, i guess we have been starved of a decent system like xmas eve 97, so when we get the potential for something half decent we get all excited.

That was an awful storm, we had xmas dinner at 8pm, sandwiches for lunch cause the leccy was gone, I'll never forget that, mostly because I got a music system that I couldn't use. :mad:

Look what happened when the snow came last year, twas mental about here but great fun, you could literally time when the snow would hit you from other posters reports. Great stuff.

Deep Easterly

leahyl wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/ie/morningireland/entry/25_years_of_weather

was just reading this myself - the strength of those winds in Christmas 97 was unreal!

A lot more detail on that particular storm in the met eireann's December 1997 monthly bulletin.

mac80

Keep an eye on the sea area forecast on the Marine VHF channels tomorrow here http://ei7dar.com/milan.html

Ship movements and audio can be seen here http://ei7dar.com/ais.html

Not a lot of ships moving out of port at the minute, the Dublin & Belfast coastguard will issue forecast every hour or so.
Frightening time to be on a small boat.

Great thread by the way

Hooter23

leahyl wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/ie/morningireland/entry/25_years_of_weather

was just reading this myself - the strength of those winds in Christmas 97 was unreal!

And to be followed the following year by an even stronger storm was even more unreal:eek:
Anyone know on average how often these monster storms are likely to hit usIs it once every 10/15/20 years ? Or more often than that

leahyl

Hooter23 wrote: »

And to be followed the following year by an even stronger storm was even more unreal:eek:
Anyone know on average how often these monster storms are likely to hit usIs it once every 10/15/20 years ? Or more often than that

Was there another one in 98? I can't remember there being two consecutively one year after the next - was that countrywide?

Deep Easterly

A whole lot of swell forecast off the west and southwest coast this coming Monday:



http://www.yosurfer.com/surf_reports/nea/map/

Deep Easterly

leahyl wrote: »

Was there another one in 98? I can't remember there being two consecutively one year after the next - was that countrywide?

Yep, there was another similar storm in 1998 alright. Those were the days...

Hooter23

leahyl wrote: »

Was there another one in 98? I can't remember there being two consecutively one year after the next - was that countrywide?

Yep it's hard to believe but I just found that out now too with the link you just posted lol:pac:
It said

Mean windspeeds of violent storm force 11 (over 55 knots, or 102km/h) were recorded at both Cork and Shannon Airports during the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 with gusts of over 160km/h. The following year, another Christmas storm brought hurricane force winds at Malin Head on December 26th, with winds gusting to 178km/h.

Hells Belle

Just checked XCWeather and they are not showing a downgrade for tomorrow either, they usually err on the side of caution. Thursday looks similar to this Sunday (today?), thats the one we use in work and we direct marine traffic, gonna be some laugh in work in Monday :eek:

amacachi

Stupid question, when would be the best night to go camping to see the storm, Sunday or Monday night?

Vain

What time do we expect this to hit Kerry? Im in Tralee. Im i right in saying it wont be for another 16hours or so?