Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

Su Campu

thetonynator wrote: »

What was posted earlier was from well drained soil . . .whats more worrying is the poorly drained and moderately drained soil moisture deficits . .







I think the moderate one is the most accurate, as the well drained and poorly drained seem to be a bit rounded off . .

The poorly drained has reached saturation (SMD = -10mm), as has the well drained soil (SMD = 0mm). The moderately drained is saturated in the northwest (-10mm). More info here

Well Drained: Soil never saturates, remains at field capacity even on very wet days in winter. Minimum SMD=zero. When SMD > 0mm AE is less than PE, decreasing linearly to zero when SMD is at a theoretical Maximum of 110mm.


Moderately Drained: May saturate on wet winter days, but return to Field Capacity on first dry day. Minimum SMD= minus10mm. When SMD >0 AE is less than PE, decreasing linearly to zero when SMD is at a theoretical Maximum of 110mm.


Poorly Drained: Saturates on wet winter days, water surplus is drained at very slow rates, in the order of 0.5mm per day. Minimum SMD= minus 10mm. When SMD >10mm AE is less than PE, decreasing linearly to zero when SMD is at a theoretical Maximum of 110mm

maquiladora

Jean mentioned there that the track is still uncertain.

Anyway, here comes the 18Z GFS, not expecting much of a change.

maquiladora

No major change on the 18Z GFS. Jet is a bit further to the west so if anything its another slight downgrade for windspeeds.

naughto

do ya have a pic of the maps??

maquiladora

naughto wrote: »

do ya have a pic of the maps??

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0

Su Campu

The 12Z ECMWF has no more mention of a 955 core pressure, it has it not getting below 960hPa now, and starting to fill just as it approaches us. Highest rainfall in the southern half of the country, but with the system moving so fast, rainfall duration will be short.

Windspeeds over land Sunday evening should be brisk for a while, but I think we'll notice a marked gustiness nature, as the strong winds just a few thousand feet up get brought down to the surface.

DWCommuter

Ha ha ha!

Ive been following developments and when Dublin City Council started to get their act together in terms of preparation I just knew this whole hurricane media frenzy would fizzle out into a wet breezy night come Sunday. I bet it does!

Sandbags out in Clontarf thanks to the delayed supplies coming in earlier this year with the snow. (They need to use it) The tide may well be a little high, but nothing over the edge. However the next time a storm or major snowstorm does bombard us, we will be caught napping. Its guaranteed!

The weather is like a woman. Totally and utterly unpredictable even if you think you have it sorted. But like women, the weather strikes when you least expect it and causes most damage. (Usually when the administration is on holiday)

So be honest lads....its just a damp squib isn't it?*

*I usually believe what I read here before any met.ie forecast.

sillybird

Whats so funny? I am certainly pleased that its not going to be as strong as was predicted earlier in the week. Its better to be prepared than sorry! I witnessed at first hand what the flooding casued last November - it was castastrophic to say the least.

PS: Lads your all doing a great job! I don't contribute often but am an avid reader of the threads.

maquiladora

NAE has the jet further east than the GFS.

derekon

DWCommuter wrote: »

Ha ha ha!

Ive been following developments and when Dublin City Council started to get their act together in terms of preparation I just knew this whole hurricane media frenzy would fizzle out into a wet breezy night come Sunday. I bet it does!

Sandbags out in Clontarf thanks to the delayed supplies coming in earlier this year with the snow. (They need to use it) The tide may well be a little high, but nothing over the edge. However the next time a storm or major snowstorm does bombard us, we will be caught napping. Its guaranteed!

The weather is like a woman. Totally and utterly unpredictable even if you think you have it sorted. But like women, the weather strikes when you least expect it and causes most damage. (Usually when the administration is on holiday)

So be honest lads....its just a damp squib isn't it?*

*I usually believe what I read here before any met.ie forecast.

I am thinking a serious case of women issues here........:D

Derek

Sierra Oscar

maquiladora wrote: »

NAE has the jet further east than the GFS.

What does this mean in layman terms?

DWCommuter

derekon wrote: »

I am thinking a serious case of women issues here........:D

Derek

Spot on!

They change like the weather!:D

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

What does this mean in layman terms?

The core of the low seems to be filling as it leaves the jet so (I think) if the jet is further east then the core may stay a bit tighter and track down further east bringing the strongest winds closer to us. Main global models don't seem to be showing that though so only a small chance of that happening I'd say.

derekon

DWCommuter wrote: »

Spot on!

They change like the weather!:D

Well I can certainly empathise there with you ....however this might be another thread....;)

Derek

M.T. Cranium

I think this thread has a good discussion going and I don't have much to add beyond pointing out the uncertainty factor at this range, especially given the unusual track of the system, has to be at least 400 km at any particular point in time so whatever we think this system as depicted on current models might do, there is every possibility of a total rethink before Sunday night arrives. Can't do much more than wait for the next model run at this point, and in my case, I will be looking at those around 0400-0500 and posting an updated forecast around 0600. But at this point would say, it's not the storm of the century, but calling it a damp squib might be too big a downgrade, so looks to me like a fast shot of high winds late Sunday impacting the south and west strongest, a fairly long interval with Ireland in the calm centre of this rather large circulation, then a second round of active weather impacting the east coast with the winds still quite strong but now from an easterly direction.

Heading out now but will be back on site some time around 0400.

irish1967

At work here now on a cliff top on the NW coast and the sea noise is incredible. Can't remember it being this loud any time since the start of 2010. Incredible roar. A sign of things to come ??

Iancar29

irish1967 wrote: »

At work here now on a cliff top on the NW coast and the sea noise is incredible. Can't remember it being this loud any time since the start of 2010. Incredible roar. A sign of things to come ??

NW as in like donegal? ... When I was up in Antrim 2 years ago we stayed in a hostel right along the coast line wit cliffs awell and I noise was so calming yet amazing to listen to .

irish1967

There is usual a good sound from the waves below but tonight it's a noise !!

Deep Easterly

Well for better or for worse, here is where EMHI HIRLAM model is showing the front lying at 2100utc sunday.



In the six hours between 1500utc and 2100utc Sunday, this model is showing a an average pressure fall of around 25 hPa over the country. Some serious barometer watching coming up me thinks!!

maquiladora

A chance to witness bombogenesis! :cool:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/188/

darkman2

Snow is increasingly likely across midland and northern parts on Sunday evening quickly becoming confined to higher ground. Any snow at low levels should be short lived and of the very wet variety.....but higher ground could see appreciable amounts from this. Elsewhere a mixture of rain and sleet at times is likely. (sleet away from windward coasts)


Other then that very windy Sunday evening with a southwesterly wind reaching storm force on exposed costs. Calmer later Sunday night but winds switching Easterly and strengthening again on Monday.

A cold Easterly flow becomes established after that.

DOCARCH

darkman2 wrote: »

A cold Easterly flow becomes established after that.

I'm interested to see what might happen on Tuesday with this (for the east coast). 850hpa temps are forecast to be 0c or below and SSTs are still around 13.5c. Could be recipe for a little fun if the wind is north of east!

Oh, I just see MT has alluded to this for Tuesday - 'there may still be local streamers of rain or hail showers in Leinster'

snaps

So what are we saying here now is that this storm has or is fizzling out and wont bring anything like what was forcast a few days ago?

Oh well as long as it rains, Ive forgotten what rain looks and feels like!!!!!:D

DOCARCH

snaps wrote: »

So what are we saying here now is that this storm has or is fizzling out and wont bring anything like what was forcast a few days ago?

Met E are forecasting 'winds of around 50 km/h, gust to between 90 and 100 km/h.'

Nothing at all exceptional with that. I'd only get excited when they start forecasting gusts of 150 km/h.

maquiladora

Comparing the 0Z models, quite a bit of variation on the shape of the core of the low at 48 hours :

GFS :



NAE :



CMC :



JMA :



ECM :

maquiladora

Unusually detailed Met Eireann outlook :


A storm depression will affect the country during Sunday night and for a time on Monday and this will create a tidal surge, and some coastal flooding in unprotected areas, so do check the times of your local high tides for this period. Very wet during Sunday night too, with heavy falls of rain ( 20 to 30 mm in less than 12 hours, highest totals probably in Atlantic coastal counties), and this is likely to lead to some flooding inland too. Extremely windy or stormy for a time, especially during the first part of the night, which could lead to some minor structural damage in exposed areas as southerly winds of around 50 km/h, gust to between 90 and 100 km/h. But as the deep storm tracks down over the country, from the northwest, winds should moderate a good deal overland after midnight or so, but some severe winds will continue out at sea. The storm centre should be close to the south coast first thing on Monday morning, and will pull slowly away southwards, so it will become windy again during the day, with strong and gusty east to northeasterly winds developing. This will being further heavy rain or showers across the country, but especially so to eastern areas with a risk of some spot flooding from that. But the main threat at that stage, will be coastal flooding in the northeast, east and southeast, at the times of high tide.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

WolfeIRE

It was east and west of country yesterday. Now south and west. Ian may have to get the train to tralee after all

Coastal towns and cities remain on flood alert as a storm developing in the North Atlantic heads towards the south and west of the country.

Early warning flood alerts have been issued in Dublin, Waterford, Cork, Clare and Galway.


The first serious storm of the winter is still developing in the North Atlantic thousands of kilometres off the Irish west coast.


Met Éireann says its full impact will probably not be felt until Sunday afternoon when the west and mid-west will be hit by heavy rain and high winds.


In Galway the city council says that the biggest threat of flooding will come from Sunday's 5pm high tide.


Dublin City Council says the flood risk in costal areas from Clontarf to Sandymount will be highest from midnight on Sunday to midday on Monday.
Emergency services in both counties will remain on standby throughout today.


AA Roadwatch has appealed to drivers to take particular care on the roads between now and Monday and has warned that crosswinds are likely to be a particular hazard.


The Irish Water Safety Association has urged motorists not to attempt to drive through heavily flooded roads especially in the vicinity of rivers.


It says there have been many tragic drownings in recent years when cars were swept away by swift-flowing flood waters.


The Association has also asked people to stay away from flooded areas.

M.T. Cranium

The developing storm has two components, one of which is a weak low already present east of Greenland and the other, more significant probably, the surface 996 mb low still over land in Labrador in eastern Canada. When this gets to southern Greenland around 18-21z it will begin to pressure jump ahead and explosively deepen the waiting low to the west of Iceland.

Anyway, it's not quite as simple as saying the storm is coming directly from Labrador to Ireland, but with that in mind, quite a distance that it has to cover in 36 hours, a jet would need 5-6 hours following the same path so you can see it's moving along at well over 80 knots.

At the present hour (which is 0500h local in Labrador) the temperature just went up ten degrees in two hours with the approach of the low at Goose Bay but there is very little surface wind there. At 14 C this has broken the daily record high for that location which was 12 C. The wind a little further from the centre on the south coast of Labrador is generally south at 60-90 km/hr, not exceptionally strong by Labrador standards. This is by no means a very strong weather system yet, but it is carrying along some anomalous warmth. I think that's why the models want to develop such a large slack centre as soon as it dives southeast after about 06z Sunday. If that large slack centre fails to materialize and this storm gets a few mbs deeper than predicted, then it could be trouble indeed. The big three or four models all seem to have this feature with slightly different details, some of the lesser contenders are showing a tighter circulation. Either way, the strongest winds would probably be out around the 976-984 mb zone, which means a rapid increase in wind speeds for most places on Sunday afternoon.

I can't recall a storm taking quite this sort of track although it does happen more frequently over parts of North America and the lows rarely have a lot of dynamic energy, they seem a bit sluggish for the amount of isobars if you see what I mean, and I guess it's because they are not causing the interaction of warm and cold air masses in the normal way but warm air is moving south and cold air is trying to return from the south which all defeats the purpose of cyclogenesis to some extent.

irish1967

High tide here at 17.30 this evening. Will storm Seamus have an effect on this high tide ?

maquiladora

irish1967 wrote: »

High tide here at 17.30 this evening. Will storm Seamus have an effect on this high tide ?

No, because the origins of the storm are still over North America.