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Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)
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On the 12Z GFS pressure at 42 hours is down to 960 from 965 on the 06Z run. Centre seems to a bit further to the east too. No major change though.
Not looking quite as flabby as some of the earlier runs, slightly stronger winds around the coasts, but no big difference.
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Windfinder's latest "superforecast' has gales developing off the west coast by 1800utc tomorrow:
transfering to the Celtic and Irish seas by 0000utc Monday:
Full hour by hour animation here0 -
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The 12Z FAX is a slight upgrade on the 00Z, with a deeper and tighter centre over us midday Monday. The 00Z did have the centre briefly splitting in two to our northwest tomorrow night, but the 12Z has no such splitting, and with a tighter core, the chances of further splitting over us are reduced. Splitting would have caused it to slow down and wobble in its track, meaning a change in wind distribution.
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Phase 1 of the system is giving easterly winds of 38 gusting 56 knots at Nunarsuit, Greenland, at 18Z. From here, the centre will die out (L985), and another one will form further to the east, a sort of lee cyclogenesis, and it is that centre that will rapidly intensify during tomorrow.
Midnight tonight
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The media reporting of this has gone completely nuts. FM104s 1pm news bulletin leads with headline 100mph winds will hit Dublin. Where TF did they get that from
Smoking a psychic Donegal holly bush by any chance ? You know, the one that's sending out coded messages in its berries about the coming winter being a harsh one.
The media are scaring the sh|t out of old folk. People are running around the place with ladders in a frenzy of roof checking. Giving rise to the possibility that some cowboys might be relishing the sound of easy money gently rustling in the wind breeze.0 -
A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland, western UK, NW France and NW Iberia mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
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(i) a strong extratropical cyclone initially located northwest of the British Isles will race across the NE Atlantic and the Irish Sea towards the Bay of Biscay while occluding. This low pressure system should gain its maximum intensity on Sunday around 18 UTC between Iceland and Ireland. The origin of this low is a baroclinic wave east of southern Greenland next to an impressive 100 m/s upper jet streak.
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...W Ireland, Scotland and extreme SW England...
After the warm sector has passed the western half of the British Isles in the late evening / night hours, the cold front will approach Ireland and western UK. A few hundred J/kg CAPE / ICAPE are forecast which should allow a strongly forced but rather shallow convective line that may produce severe / damaging wind gusts. As the non-convective gusts will likely reach values around 25 m/s and the CAPE signal is rather weak, a level 1 should cover the risk of convective events properly. As seen in other similar cases, SRH1 and SRH3 tend to reach extremely high values near the cold front and isolated tornadoes may occur within the line.
...Bay of Biscay, NW Iberia, NW France, British Isles...
A broad number of global models (GFS, ECMWF, GME and others) agree that convection will become rather unlikely in these places (except for NW France in the afternoon hours before the cyclone will reach western UK). The warm front / warm sector region of the cyclone may lead to widespread severe wind gusts over Ireland and UK which are mostly non-convective. In the early morning hours on Monday, the cold front of the low pressure system will arrive at NW France but instability should be too low for deep convection. Some convective enhancement of the wind, especially in the southern Bay of Biscay, cannot be ruled out and therefore a level 1 was issued for those regions which are most likely affected.
Please note that we do not issue threat levels for non-convective events!
http://www.estofex.org/0 -
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ECMWF 12z has low of 965 sitting right over my head Monday noon:
I'd not be surprised if the core readings are a little lower as it (if it) passes over by a few hPa's. Will be about the most interesting thing to watch anyway from this system in this part of the country. :rolleyes:
North Atlantic station analysis map for 19z:
beginning to wind itself up just off the coast of Greenland.0 -
maquiladora wrote: »...
...W Ireland,
A few hundred J/kg CAPE / ICAPE are forecast which should allow a strongly forced but rather shallow convective line that may produce severe / damaging wind gusts.
http://www.estofex.org/
Possible squall features within the main frontal zone hinted at there Maq. Bring those right on!
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Possible squall features within the main frontal zone hinted at there Maq. Bring those right on!
Not sure if I am reading this right. Never looked at this chart before. But it appears to show convective gusts up to 60 knts (111kph) inland in parts and 100kph gusts possible everywhere else.
http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur30.png
I guess this is what Estofex are talking about when they mention "severe / damaging" gusts.0 -
The 18Z HiRLAM has a mess of a situation developing tomorrow evening, with the low center splitting into 3 parts to our northwest. If that happens then all bets are off as to what could happen, and where.....
The plot thickens......
Monday morning
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maquiladora wrote: »Hmmmm... 18Z NAE
Yeah, hmmmmm indeed. That looks remarkably like the HiRLAM, doesn't it! The arse could be falling out of this quickly. The ECMWF doesn't have a good handle on the jet over Greenland at 18Z, with its forecasted WV image overdoing the strength of the jet somewhat, as seen below....
Forecast WV
Actual WV
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