Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

WolfeIRE

rainfall from tomorrow night's system is illustrated well on the HIRLAM
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Click on nedbor

Su Campu

Going on that, it looks like the northeast could get the highest rainfall totals as the trailing occlusion pivots around and stays in the area throughout Monday

maquiladora

Looking at the 06Z GFS and the HIRLAM posted above, looks like the trend is towards a more westward track, pushes the stongest winds even further away.

Still looks fairly windy at times for parts though, and the rain still looks to be quite heavy though thankfully passing fairly quickly.

It's going to be really interesting to see just good the models were once we to get to tomorrow afternoon and this thing actually starts to develop and swing down towards us.

sunbabe08

:eek: getting to college monday morning is going to be adventure.


but for now bring on the rain and wind!!!!!!

maquiladora

06Z GFS Vs NAE :

oterra

Are we now looking at a bit of a damp squid rather than what was predicted wed/thurs. It's great to see how everything develops and is discussed here on boards. The contributors to this thread should be commended!

nacho libre

I had a timely reminder this morning just how dangerous saturated ground can be on trees that are ageing. so bear that in mind this sunday even it won't be majorly windy. don't go driving or walking unless you have to.

Su Campu

The 06Z GFS for Sunday 18Z has a slightly stronger jet, displaced a bit further west, than Friday's 12Z run. This could deepen the surface low further, but take it more to the west.




The 00Z Goose Bay sounding shows a 130kt jet, pretty much in line with how the model had forecast, but the 12Z ascents for there and Narsarsuaq will be important in verifying the forecast strengthening that was to take place this morning.

Overall, it's all still too much "up in the air" to have an idea for sure, it will be a Sunday afternoon of nowcasting methinks!

ordinaryjoe

Firstly big thanks to all the main heads who add their reports each day..boards weather way better than met..anyway i think this storm has
been blown up way too much on yahoo news and the indo i reckon a few umbrellas will be blown inside out and some extra rain but that is all...

Elessar

Would it be worth chancing a few hours at the zoo today?

(I don't mind a bit of drizzle here and there but if it's going to be blustery and p*ssing down later on it wouldn't be worth it.)

nacho libre

Elessar wrote: »

Would it be worth chancing a few hours at the zoo today?

(I don't mind a bit of drizzle here and there but if it's going to be blustery and p*ssing down later on it wouldn't be worth it.)

it won't be blustery, but there will be showers by the afternoon.

Pangea

Evelyn mentioned a possible storm on wednesday or thursday next week, just wondering how is this panning out?
Met eireanns forecast online is nice to read
A lot of action, bad frost and also a big storm.

nacho libre

there could be 25 - 30ft swell from this system early Monday off the west and southwest coast :eek:

naughto

nacho libre wrote: »

there could be 25 - 30ft swell from this system early Monday off the west and southwest coast :eek:

bring it on ill be siting at my laptop telling ye all how bad it is providing the power doesnt go:D:D:D

nacho libre

as was said that centre of that lp looks to have had too many carbohydrates.

Su Campu

Pangea wrote: »

Evelyn mentioned a possible storm on wednesday or thursday next week, just wondering how is this panning out?
Met eireanns forecast online is nice to read
A lot of action, bad frost and also a big storm.

Nothing showing for us at that stage, most of the action looks like staying to the north, but I wouldn't trust any model beyond 36hrs at this satge!

nacho libre

projected state of affairs Sunday night and Monday morning:

WolfeIRE

Pangea wrote: »

Evelyn mentioned a possible storm on wednesday or thursday next week, just wondering how is this panning out?
.

TheInquisitor

WolfeIRE 's post above shows a decent storm that would actually hit Ireland with its Winds head on. Chance of happening...5%??

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

projected state of affairs Sunday night and Monday morning:

Nacho what does the inner circle of light blue signify?


Wolf thanks for the image , could u explain it a bit please
edit: thanks Inquisitor.

Winger_PL

Apologies for the slight OT, but what's the best place to be on Sunday eve to see the storm at the coast? Sky road at Clifden? Dingle peninsula? Somewhere on the Ring of Kerry perhaps?
It'll be too dark for pictures, but I wanted to witness some of that. I'm obviously looking for a safe place, but the higher the winds the better.

maquiladora

Winger_PL wrote: »

Apologies for the slight OT, but what's the best place to be on Sunday eve to see the storm at the coast? Sky road at Clifden? Dingle peninsula? Somewhere on the Ring of Kerry perhaps?
It'll be too dark for pictures, but I wanted to witness some of that. I'm obviously looking for a safe place, but the higher the winds the better.

As Su said earlier, we won't know the exact track of the low until tomorrow. The models may change by the time the system actually starts to get its act together. The intensity and track could change quite a bit and that will determine where (if anywhere) gets strong winds. Roughly speaking, as it looks now, exposted areas on the west, north and northeast coasts would probably see the strongest gusts.

Redsunset

Although i feel the approaching system won't be too significant inland and yes it will obviously become windy but as Nacho has said the sea swell is the big factor in all this.



Here is Monday at 3am.

Swells ranging from 12 foot on east to 20 foot around western coasts.

Of course this is a forecast and could be higher or lower at said time but gives an idea of what is coming.

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Nacho what does the inner circle of light blue signify?

Light blue = very light winds in the core of the storm.

Su Campu

The latest satellite is showing the effects of the very strong jet off northeastern Canada, with typical tranverse cloud banding and temperatures down to around -60°C.

Su Campu

TheInquisitor wrote: »

WolfeIRE 's post above shows a decent storm that would actually hit Ireland with its Winds head on. Chance of happening...5%??

Just note that the bottom wind chart is actually the 500hPa winds, not surface!!

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

Just note that the bottom wind chart is actually the 500hPa winds, not surface!!

Indeed. If they were surface winds then you could forgive the papers for calling it a hurricane.

Su Campu

The ECM has it reaching a low pressure of 963hPa off to our northwest by midnight tomorrow night, which is almost 10hPa higher than was forecast over the last couple of days. This in itself will help the flood situation, as those 10hPa will reduce the storm surge by almost 10cms

sunbabe08

wind picking up down here in cork picking up and it's raining, it was supposed to be clear today, could this be the start of it?

mickger844posts

sunbabe08 wrote: »

wind picking up down here in cork picking up and it's raining, it was supposed to be clear today, could this be the start of it?

No, the so called "storm" is no way near us yet.