Winter FI Charts

nacho libre

there is a danger that those heights over europe don't fall and we end up with a situation smiliar to the present one- standard winter cold rather than real cold weather prevailing

Elmer Blooker

The Azores high looks like becoming a permanent fixture for the next few weeks which means winter 10-11 is over - very similar to 81-82, a great winter but all over by mid Jan.
I decided to have a look and see what they were saying about the disastrous 12z on the model output thread on NW - no post for nearly an hour and a half!
Definitely the end, time to throw in the towel!

thetonynator

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The Azores high looks like becoming a permanent fixture for the next few weeks which means winter 10-11 is over - very similar to 81-82, a great winter but all over by mid Jan.
I decided to have a look and see what they were saying about the disastrous 12z on the model output thread on NW - no post for nearly an hour and a half!
Definitely the end, time to throw in the towel!

that not what the models are showing . . .greenland high yeah, scandinavian high yeah, but azores high . .i don't think so?

Edit: and from everything i've heard, 82 was only a good winter for 2 weeks, and was very mild otherwise.

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The Azores high looks like becoming a permanent fixture for the next few weeks which means winter 10-11 is over - very similar to 81-82, a great winter but all over by mid Jan.
I decided to have a look and see what they were saying about the disastrous 12z on the model output thread on NW - no post for nearly an hour and a half!
Definitely the end, time to throw in the towel!

It could be just one errant run/wobble.
If you recall prior to the last cold spell the ecmwf had everything too far west and there was a lot of panic over on netweather. If this shows up on subsequent runs then it's time to panic. In the worst case scenario there could be two-three weeks of zonal weather, but we would still have opportunities for snow during February. So it's a bit premature to say wintry weather is over whichever way you look at it.

patneve2

When I was new to weather I used to despair at single runs but I have now learned that 'the trend is your friend' and the trend is clearly for colder weather starting in the second half of January...however we could well end up with the Azores high but its way too far out to see anyways!

John.Icy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The Azores high looks like becoming a permanent fixture for the next few weeks which means winter 10-11 is over - very similar to 81-82, a great winter but all over by mid Jan.
I decided to have a look and see what they were saying about the disastrous 12z on the model output thread on NW - no post for nearly an hour and a half!
Definitely the end, time to throw in the towel!

LOL.
Are you joking.
Azores high is being shown for a week or a few days more.
It's all trending to another cold spell towards January 20th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Anyone see any sustained mild? I dont.

Elmer Blooker

I'm not just talking about FI charts but years of weather watching tell me that a long spell of blocking is always followed by an equally long spell of Atlantic unsettled weather. I've noticed over the years that these spells often last around six weeks approx.

thetonynator

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'm not just talking about FI charts but years of weather watching tell me that a long spell of blocking is always followed by an equally long spell of Atlantic unsettled weather. I've noticed over the years that these spells often last around six weeks approx.

we had a long spell of blocking, then the atlantic came in for a few days, then there was some bland messy weather for a while . .but certainly not 6 weeks of zonal weather, and there is no sign of that on the horizon either. I give it 2 weeks, 3 max.

Elmer Blooker

thetonynator wrote: »

we had a long spell of blocking, then the atlantic came in for a few days, then there was some bland messy weather for a while . .but certainly not 6 weeks of zonal weather, and there is no sign of that on the horizon either. I give it 2 weeks, 3 max.

Hope your right but HP from the W.Med to the Azores is still a major worry.
I've noticed the Greenland high is back on the 18z, I suppose it's not called the pub run for nothin' - a morale booster!

Flan_Da_Man125

thetonynator wrote: »

Quite a high chance at the moment, maybe even greater than 50/50 . ..

ya i was thinking that myself. models are hinting it at the moment but there always unreliable that far out. MT has also been hinting return to cold around 18th jan after this milder air for next week passes through

thetonynator

We can dream:

BLIZZARD7

Were looking at the Atlantic in control up to next weekend anyway, after that is alot more uncertain, strongish support for a mid atlantic ridge/Greenland high in FI. The main problem we have is the heights over southern Europe, but I reckon these will be blasted out of the way as the high in the Atlantic forces the jet south, barreling into southern Europe.

The polar vortex won't setup anywhere for very long I don't think, or at least not in an unfavourable position. I'd expect it to sit over scandi in about 10 days time, feeding down cold northerly's or north-easterlys over us. With the GH/mid Atlantic ridge keeping the jet at bay, just like in December although probably not as cold. After this I reckon the polar vortex will shift and a high pressure ridge will build over scandi resulting in easterly's into February.

Now this would be the best scenario possible really but it does have some support, ensemble mean starting to drop off in FI.

GFS 00z Ensembles for Aberdeen trending colder -



GFS 00z Ensembles for Dublin -



This shows the mean dropping to -5C at the 850 hpa level after the 19th. Don't expect it do drop to -10c at this range, even if thats what happens. The mean always drops as we get closer to the cold spell when this pattern sets up.

Anyway take it as a good sign at the moment, nothing more and nothing less.
I don't agree with elmer, it's very unlikely that we will get stuck in a zonal flow for weeks.

00z GFS SLP Ensembles for oslo + reyjavic not as good as they were, not awful either.






00z GFS SLP ensembles for Madrid show a pressure drop towards the end, indicating we might get rid of that stubborn ridge -




Anyway that's just my opinion and one to watch, maybe Elmer will be right and we will be stuck in zonality for months.




Dan :cool:

Pangea

Everyones gone very quiet, has the express broke down already.

DOCARCH

Pangea wrote: »

Everyones gone very quiet, has the express broke down already.

Nothing even in FI to get excited about this morning! :rolleyes:

patneve2

GFS 06 poor, however ensembles (or spaghetti/noodle forecast as I like to call them ) definitely hinting at colder weather starting in the last 10 days of the month...will get colder but nothing compared to the last two major cold spells...I'm happy just as long as we don't get stuck in the Atlantic train for the rest of the Winter...;)

nacho libre

well it looks like it will get colder this time next week, but it doesn't look good for sustained cold in my opinion. A few crumbs of comfort are the uk met office update hasn't changed so far, and M.T.'s forecast so far this winter has been spot on, so perhaps the models will be showing something more favourable in two or three days time. if mike65 is the only one posting in this thread during the week then it's times to panic:p

nacho libre

patneve2 wrote: »

.I'm happy just as long as we don't get stuck in the Atlantic train for the rest of the Winter...;)

Don't look at the CFS prediction for February then!. It would be funny if it was correct, considering February is usually the month the Atlantic is at its quietest

patneve2

nacho libre wrote: »

Don't look at the CFS prediction for February then!. It would be funny if it was correct, considering February is usually the month the Atlantic is at its quietest

Already seen them:( Won't give too much weight to them just yet as their forecasts were all over the place November/December...I hope (and think) that blocking will still be a major characteristic, (maybe not positioned as well as previous) for the remainder of the Winter. No scientific explanation for this so zero validity:)

BEASTERLY

This set up gave me my username!

Just to sum up the GFS lately:

MT just gave an update in other thread
:pac:

Iancar29

Hey People, the end of the FI charts i know , but what would this low system mean if it tracked over us from the atlantic ?

alfa beta

wet and windy would be my guess - what makes you think it might be wintery (if that's what you're thinking?)

Iancar29

alfa beta wrote: »

wet and windy would be my guess - what makes you think it might be wintery (if that's what you're thinking?)

Ah no , i know it wont be wintery!, its coming from the atlantic of course!!.. ha,
#
But ye , like , seeing as it has it at a pressure of 960mbs there, wouldnt crossing the atlantic make it deeping further?... Making it a serious storm?.

I know its way out to come true, but just for educational purposes...

alfa beta

lol - I've got wintery on the brain - and now can't even spot when someone asks a question about weather that may not involve the cold!!!

I spose it could be a nasty bit of a blow alright, but it's a bit flabby looking isn't it to develop into a serious storm don't you think?

Flan_Da_Man125

i want snow but i woudnt mind and nice windy storm to pass through. we havent seen a really good one in a while. last weekends one was only ok haha

Flan_Da_Man125

next wednesday here shows high moving west allowing wet weather back.

Iancar29

Wish we got a low like thats off to the NW , 950mb..... A NICE oul windstorm that would be ha...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

Wish we got a low like thats off to the NW , 950mb..... A NICE oul windstorm that would be ha... BUT I WISH IT WAS SNNNOOOOOOOWWW

FYP :pac:

Iancar29

t|nt|n wrote: »

FYP :pac:

haha... ah ye but if snow wasnt an option id kindly take a windstorm over damp and dreary weather anyday

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

haha... ah ye but if snow wasnt an option id kindly take a windstorm over damp and dreary weather anyday

True, I would take anything at this stage !