Winter FI Charts

patneve2

High probability of the Atlantic crashing through sometime next week, will be a welcome change after this boring 'non-weather'. I'm still convinced of an Easterly/NEasterly or two sometime between mid-february and mid-march. The AO index has gone slightly positive and is likely to go moderate to strongly positive (good news for the arctic ice sheet at least), before going negative again sometime after the 10th of Feb or so. I'm still convinced we'll see lying snow before the winter is over...

nacho libre

I'm afraid there is nothing to suggest a return of a deep freeze this month. the best we can hope for is to get brief periods of a wintry mix in a gusty northwesterly airflow during the first 10-11 days of Februray. The uk met office update has absolutely no mention of a potent northerly, easterly or north easterly airflow developing at any stage during February. obviously they don't forsee the lower heights disappearing further north anytime soon:(

oisingeogho

does this not mean anything?

patneve2

oisingeogho wrote: »

does this not mean anything?

Gusty and cool SWesterly winds...rain/hail showers on that chart

BEASTERLY

oisingeogho wrote: »

does this not mean anything?

[/QUO
Super low heights to the north, no chance of cold:mad:

oisingeogho

how wont that be cold?

BEASTERLY

oisingeogho wrote: »

how wont that be cold?

The chart is showing west/swerlys bringing average temperatures. The colors on the chart represent upper atmosphere heights. Low heights induce low pressures on the surface. So where the blues and purples are will have low pressure underneath. When we have lows to our north we see winds from the west not condusive for cold at all. To get any decent cold shot we need height rises to our north to get some blocking highs in place to feed in some north easterlys.

The large area of purle to our north in that chart is the polar vortex.

Pangea

The country tracks forecast says the winds from the west on thursday will be of cold origin from Canada so expect wintry showers over Northern Ireland and Scotland.
He said the end of the week is rather uncertain yet.

MiNdGaM3

If you're looking for some imaginary FI cold, P7 from the 06z GEFS may interest you!



For those looking forward to very much milder conditions, there P8

Speak Now

Though i'd post this before it disappears from this afternoons run :pac:

Harps

The Scandinavian high has shown up on quite a few runs on both the gfs and ecm over the past few days, might actually be some truth in it :pac:

NIALL D

^^^ bring it on

thetonynator

Gone in the 12z . .

Iancar29

thetonynator wrote: »

Gone in the 12z . .

What is???

Nabber

The models change too quick to keep up with them.

What's the chance of a cold spell coming back?

Harps

Its come and gone for the past 3 days on the gfs, wouldnt be too worried yet

ECM 12h still looking good

Not

Harps wrote: »

Its come and gone for the past 3 days on the gfs, wouldnt be too worried yet

ECM 12h still looking good

But at one stage it was coming and going for 3/4 Feb - and look what we ended up with.

I think this is like what I remember of last winter, from January on to the end of the winter there was always another serious cold snowy spell two weeks distant on the charts, but it never came... until November.

That's how I think the rest of this winter will play out, but I may be proved wrong.

fizzycyst

I think it only came up once or maybe twice for the 3/4 though, hopefully this one comes through for us :rolleyes:

thetonynator

Iancar29 wrote: »

What is???

sorry i should have said, i meant the charts posted just above my post.

alfa beta

that 12z ecm is lush - now if only that was 24 hours out!!

GFS seems to have backed off again (on the cold air coming that far west).

still all to play for though.

TheInquisitor

I never thought id see a chart thats bringing such a strong atlantic storm that the air doesnt have time to be warmed up and it would bring EPIC snow!! 935 my god!!! Its dragging down serious cold air from Greenland!!




Also just a note regarding MT's hint at a cold outbreak in mid feb. Here is the chart.

NIALL D

looks impressive

patneve2

The GFS 12Z ensembles are quite poor compared to the 06Z ones...however they change quite rapidly so there still is a bit of hope...

BEASTERLY

TheInquisitor wrote: »

I never thought id see a chart thats bringing such a strong atlantic storm that the air doesnt have time to be warmed up and it would bring EPIC snow!! 935 my god!!! Its dragging down serious cold air from Greenland!!

IMO, i dont think anywhere in Ireland under 300m would see any snow from that. You need -5 850hpa temps atleast(in a continental airflow), which is barely on that chart. And with long sea track, high humidity , high dewpoints and add in other factors like high wind speeds. For winds with a long sea track like that youd want -10's at 850hpa level

dsmythy

Could be a nice development for some windy conditions if it were to come about.

nacho libre

Baten down the hatches as they say:eek:

Although it will probably disappear on the next run. Just like the monster lows they forecast coming up from the continent back in December

dsmythy

nacho libre wrote: »

Baten down the hatches as they say:eek:

Although it will probably disappear on the next run. Just like the monster lows they forecast coming up from the continent back in December

Wouldn't surprise me if the beast will exist but it seems to want to churn away in the Atlantic and not want to come near us.

nacho libre

dsmythy wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me if the beast will exist but it seems to want to churn away in the Atlantic and not want to come near us.

Yes you could be right. The high and the low engage in a standoff, with us stuck in no man's land- neither stormy or cold.

dsmythy

Party pooper chart for snowbies. Wish these charts would make their minds up

[IMG][/img]

NIALL D

anything of interest showing up on the charts ??