Winter 2010-2011 outlook

BEASTERLY · 02-10-2010 9:22pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Redsunset, I think this is the most up to date one and shows a monthly breakdown :

October above average but Nov/Dec/Jan below average.

:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::D:)

I think that sums up my response to that!!!:)

02-10-2010 9:37pm

Only slightly below average, infact it just wobbles either side of "average", that doesn't mean freezing.

Just glad I don't live in centeral Europe.

nacho libre · 03-10-2010 12:17am

personally I don't care if it's not freezing, just as long as it's cold enough for sneachta - lots of it!!

maquiladora · 03-10-2010 12:33am

nacho libre wrote: »

personally I don't care if it's not freezing, just as long as it's cold enough for sneachta - lots of it!!

Yep we don't need severe cold here like we got last year for a good snowfest, subzero air and dp temps will do!

A cold Europe though is great for those easterlies we want to see.

BEASTERLY · 03-10-2010 12:04pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep we don't need severe cold here like we got last year for a good snowfest, subzero air and dp temps will do!

A cold Europe though is great for those easterlies we want to see.

I was thinking that too, this might be a stupid question, is there any connection between a cold europe and the frequency of easterly outbreaks for us?

Min · 03-10-2010 1:05pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I was thinking that too, this might be a stupid question, is there any connection between a cold europe and the frequency of easterly outbreaks for us?

I don't know, but a cold Europe is often the result of cold coming from the east or north which sometimes makes it far enough west to Ireland.

There is a theory which suggests that a low amount of sunspots affects the jet stream which allows the cold to come across Europe and parts of Asia in the winter.
So a cold Europe could be widespread this winter. Last winter the Jet stream was affected and we gots lot of wind direction from the East and North.

Wild Bill · 03-10-2010 1:57pm

Just one tiny quibble - the maps above actually show Ireland having a warmer than average winter!! :rolleyes:

maquiladora · 03-10-2010 2:11pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Just one tiny quibble - the maps above actually show Ireland having a warmer than average winter!! :rolleyes:

That forecast updates all the time, the image is not static, since I posted it yesterday Nov is now shown as warmer than average.

Its a long term forecast with a huge amount of uncertainty.

BEASTERLY · 03-10-2010 2:49pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Just one tiny quibble - the maps above actually show Ireland having a warmer than average winter!! :rolleyes:

Depends on where you are. The charts show the south and east having a colder than average december and january. Even slightly above average conditions would have better snow prospects than most winters of the late 1990's and 2000's

Redsunset · 03-10-2010 2:57pm

Surface temperature anomalies (blue: colder than average; red: warmer than average) in Europe from Jan.3-9. Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The arctic was literally on fire compared to previous winters and just look at that blocking.

It will be very tough to get extremes like this again but a more balanced picture is more favourable for the sneachta.

Are cold winters in Europe associated with

low solar activity?

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/024001/pdf/1748-9326_5_2_024001.pdf

Papers a bit scientific but you'll get the idea.

Abstract

Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start
of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe.

Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature.

We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more
commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the
occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic.

We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect.
Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466

303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and

Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.

Frozen Britain: Large parts of Britain and Central Europe were covered in snow during last winter, as this Nasa satellite image from January 7 shows. Scientists think low solar activity could be the culprit

Kippure · 03-10-2010 3:29pm

The same synopitic pressure chart patterns as last year have already started to show up in the latest runs GFS ECM etc.

It looks like a complete copy as last year. When then the first cold spell develops,( me thinks last week of october) we wont be able to see past 84 hours as the models dont know what cold is.

leahyl · 03-10-2010 5:09pm

Hey guys - keeping an eye on this thread! Hoping for another snowfest this year!;)

Wild Bill · 03-10-2010 5:22pm

In case ye doubt it I'm as keen on cold snowy winters as anyone; it's just I remember the winters of the late 70s and early 80s when we thought we were heading to a new Ice Age - instead we got nearly a quarter of a century without a real winter!

One bitten twice shy I guess.

03-10-2010 5:23pm

Id love a good snowfest too Leahyl

I remember you from last winters Snowfest on boards. You have a lovely childlike delight in snow, that is very lovely and charming

So even ifs its only for a day or snow, I hope Cork gets lots of snow for you.

Redsunset · 03-10-2010 6:14pm

While not being his winter forecast.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Joe b has this to say,

its fascinating to see what using the analog gives us for the winter and then applying the computer forecast gives us. Put it this way... for large parts of Europe, another year where the Global warming crowd is going to take a beating from the APPEARANCE of the weather is on the way!

The three years that stick out like a sore thumb are 1950-1951,1955-1956 and 1995-1996 for europe.

The main idea I have out for the winter is that there will be large scale chill again.

I believe that this is a colder than normal winter for a large part of europe, but I am torn as to where right now. I am going to research it and come up with the answer.

nacho libre · 03-10-2010 8:51pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

In case ye doubt it I'm as keen on cold snowy winters as anyone; it's just I remember the winters of the late 70s and early 80s when we thought we were heading to a new Ice Age - instead we got nearly a quarter of a century without a real winter!

One bitten twice shy I guess.

well at least you got to see such epic winters. the closest some of us have got was the Christmas period of 2,000, but from reading the post of older forum members it wasn't a patch on the period you mention. I would love to wake up one morning, open the curtains, and see a foot of snow outside!

thetonynator · 03-10-2010 8:55pm

nacho libre wrote: »

well at least you got to see such epic winters. the closest some of us have got was the Christmas period of 2,000, but from reading the post of older forum members it wasn't a patch on the period you mention. I would love to wake up one morning, open the curtains, and see a foot of snow outside!

That'll never happen because we'll all have stayed up the previous night staring out the window pressing f5 until we got snow . . .:):P

Wild Bill · 03-10-2010 8:56pm

Yeah, it was a great time - to be young and in love in a time of snow!

(The downside is it makes me somewhat older than most of ye

).

But to remind you of last winter this was taken near Newtownmountkennedy on the afternoon of 7 January last.......

dexter647 · 03-10-2010 9:17pm

Lovely pic:)... roll on more of the same this winter

Min · 03-10-2010 11:01pm

Last winter was misery, I mean, I don't mind it being cold but Spring was late and it cost me thousands having to buy extra feed for my animals.

It isn't great getting a blizzard at the end of March when one would like to be letting cows out to graze but there was no grass as it was all frost burnt.

The ice was hardship, dangerous having to work outside and trying to mind one's step, frozen pipes, cattle looking for water but you have none as - 16C temperatures have everything in a deep freeze, burst pipes, cracked water troughs, the milking parlour was frozen and took hours to defrost the milking equipment so we could have some milk for our tea as the roads were unusable.

OK, storms with 100mph gusts on an exposed hill are no fun either as you worry if your sheds will survive.... :pac:

I just hope we have a shorter winter....but I doubt it.

maquiladora · 04-10-2010 11:19am

Britain 'in for another big freeze winter'

Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions said the country should prepare itself for "back-to-back" harsh winters.

Last winter was the coldest for 31 years, with the average UK-wide temperature from 1 December to 24 February being only 34.7F (1.5C), compared to the long-term average of 38.6F (3.7C).

The mercury plunged as low as -8.1F (-22.3C) in Altnaharra, Scotland, while Benson, Oxon, recorded 10.8F (-11.8C).

The Met Office had predicted there was only a one-in-seven chance of a cold winter, which was caused by strong anti-cyclonic activity bringing persistent icy winds off the continent, and keeping milder Atlantic breezes at bay.

That statement came after an overly-optimistic forecast for summer 2009, which rather rashly predicted that Britain was "odds-on for a barbecue summer".

While it was slightly warmer than average it turned out to be another damp affair and the Met Office was roundly criticised.

The combination of the two predictions led it to drop public announcements of its seasonal forecasting service, which it has relegated to its research department.

However, Positive Weather Solutions, which claims to have correctly forecast the 2009 washout summer and last winter's plunging temperatures, has continued to offer long-range forecasts.

Mr Powell said: "It is very unusual to have two very harsh winters back-to-back, so most people would have expected a tamer and milder winter this year.

"But this winter will be similar to last winter, although not quite as harsh. We could well see temperatures as cold as last winter, albeit on a less-sustained level.

"We expect periods of disruptive snowfall similar to the snow we saw last winter, although periods of harsh weather will be broken up by milder conditions.

"A White Christmas is a distinct possibility for higher ground in the east, north-east and Scotland and also possibly higher ground in the west.

"And with a combination of snow, ice and bitterly-cold temperatures, we could well see another ‘white-out’ scenario as some areas of the country grind to a halt.

"School closures are very likely, as is disruption on the roads and the possibility people may be stranded in their cars if there are heavy snowfalls or if roads are not fully gritted.

"Local authorities need to be warned that they will have to handle another very cold winter."

According to its website, PWS bases its forecasts on "a central computer program which searches a partitioned slice of historical data, looking for patterns and trends within it".

They are not always right. In mid-July, PWS predicted: "August for all of the UK will be dry and warm." The month turned out to be dull, wet and the coolest since 1993.

Met Office has vastly greater computational power than small-scale outfits, access to more data and more highly-trained meteorologists.

But Michael Lawrence, a Met Office forecaster, explained that even with such resources, long-term prediction was a notoriously difficult business.

He said that while the Met Office always quantified the probability of long-term weather scenarios, others were not so rigorous.

"What these forecasters do is pit themselves in opposition to what we say and if they get it right they get a lot of publicity," he lamented.

If they got it wrong "nobody knows who they are" so it did not matter, he added.

The Met Office now limits its public predictions to 30 days.

It is predicting an "unsettled period" for October, with mild, wet and windy weather giving way mid-month to calmer conditions and near-normal temperatures - which will mean frosts for parts of the country - for the remainder.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8039977/Britain-in-for-another-big-freeze-winter.html

I'm not sure about these 'Positive Weather Solutions' guys. Only time will tell!

Elmo5 · 04-10-2010 3:59pm

another paper carrying same story:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1317484/Forecasters-predict-white-winters.html

Not · 04-10-2010 7:28pm

Just some food for thought - in the current financial climate, I seriously wonder if there was a harsh winter like the last one would local authorites be able to afford to grit roads, fix loads of burst water mains, etc ?

Mmcd · 04-10-2010 7:30pm

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8039977/Britain-in-for-another-big-freeze-winter.html

I'm not sure about these 'Positive Weather Solutions' guys. Only time will tell!

There was a counter article where a man from the met office was asked about this and he said that PWS just go against the met office for every decision and only get publicity when they're right as opposed to the met office where it's nearly the opposite.

04-10-2010 7:57pm

Not wrote: »

Just some food for thought - in the current financial climate, I seriously wonder if there was a harsh winter like the last one would local authorites be able to afford to grit roads, fix loads of burst water mains, etc ?

With a bit of luck, they still have large stockpiles of grit from last year!
ISTR that they placed large urgent orders for it and it arrived just after the worst of the freeze.

lord lucan · 04-10-2010 8:11pm

Deleted User wrote: »

With a bit of luck, they still have large stockpiles of grit from last year!
ISTR that they placed large urgent orders for it and it arrived just after the worst of the freeze.

Problem is if we get sustained snow will the councils be able to afford the overtime that would be needed to keep the lads out gritting the roads? I'm sure they've budgeted based on 'average' winters,a sustained period of severe snow and ice could see either no gritting or just the main arteries getting a gritting.

Deep Easterly · 04-10-2010 8:21pm

All main and secondary roads around Co Galway are falling to bits and in a generally atrocious state. My car is wrecked because of the awful state of the roads yet I am expected to pay my 'road tax' for using them. :mad: No sign of the pen pushing, penny pinching Co. Council doing anything about it either. At this rate, we won't need salt for the roads this coming winter should we get an icy spell, more than enough pot holes and generally cragginess on the them to stop to car sliding into a ditch should it hit a slippy spot. :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE · 04-10-2010 8:21pm

Deleted User wrote: »

With a bit of luck, they still have large stockpiles of grit from last year!
ISTR that they placed large urgent orders for it and it arrived just after the worst of the freeze.

no additional supplies in place in clare the council said last week. Will be no different anywhere else.

anyway, they wouldn't have the budget to bring in additional supplies. Would be an interesting one for a journalist to throw at the dept of transport or dept of environment to see if additional supplies/funds allocated for this winter.

rc28 · 04-10-2010 8:49pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

no additional supplies in place in clare the council said last week. Will be no different anywhere else.

anyway, they wouldn't have the budget to bring in additional supplies. Would be an interesting one for a journalist to throw at the dept of transport or dept of environment to see if additional supplies/funds allocated for this winter.

http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2010/oct/03/nra-invests-8m-to-prepare-for-another-possible-big/

65 new snow ploughs have been purchased along with 30 new salt/grit spreaders. I'm surprised they have any cash at all to do this!!

Tabnabs · 04-10-2010 9:21pm

Winter 2010-2011 outlook

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