Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

Rougies

Danno wrote: »

January 1987 had 850hPa (1500m up there) air temps of around -18c. I don't ever remember seeing colder on charts, however, some Valentia soundings or NI ones might have recorded colder, doubtful in Valentia tho.

Any idea how often they're released? And are they the only weather balloon soundings in the republic?

derekon

danni2 wrote: »

Yeah they were very great snow days:D and looking at the charts for next week we could see something similar but same here im not getting my hopes up either and I also hope you are totally wrong about seeing a massive downgrade but with many let downs in the past you may be right.

Quite right Danni2, don't put ANY faith in these charts
They have let us down over the past few weeks no end

I am gonna call it now
Winter 09/10 is over and we have had our cold spell and snow

You might as well as be looking into a crystal ball as believing some of the charts which are always next week :mad:

This week was meant to be cold but now we are being told next week could be proper cold with snow .

Anyone notice a recurring them here? (I will give you clue: carrot & donkey )

Roll on spring!

Derek

pistolpetes11

Danno wrote: »

January 1987 had 850hPa (1500m up there) air temps of around -18c. I don't ever remember seeing colder on charts, however, some Valentia soundings or NI ones might have recorded colder, doubtful in Valentia tho.

Would we not of recorded lower during the recent cold snap , Vilian (may be spelt incorrectly) recorded air temps around the -18 at his ground level location during the recent cold snap ?

Or can the recording only be got when a weather ballon has been released , and how often is that ?

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

Quite right Danni2, don't put ANY faith in these charts
They have let us down over the past few weeks no end

I am gonna call it now
Winter 09/10 is over and we have had our cold spell and snow

You might as well as be looking into a crystal ball as believing some of the charts which are always next week :mad:

This week was meant to be cold but now we are being told next week could be proper cold with snow .

Anyone notice a recurring them here? (I will give you clue: carrot & donkey )

Roll on spring!

Derek

Its always been like that ,

Its the continuing cold trend which seems to be more important for us to get a good old bashing of snow !

A couple of non runners will be well worth it if what is showing at the moment happens, but if it does not , I have once again had a very enjoyable time in this forum !

derekon

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its always been like that ,

Its the continuing cold trend which seems to be more important for us to get a good old bashing of snow !

A couple of non runners will be well worth it if what is showing at the moment happens, but if it does not , I have once again had a very enjoyable time in this forum !

Fair point, this forum can be very exciting especially when it actually snows

D

Speak Now

derekon wrote: »

Quite right Danni2, don't put ANY faith in these charts
They have let us down over the past few weeks no end

I am gonna call it now
Winter 09/10 is over and we have had our cold spell and snow

You might as well as be looking into a crystal ball as believing some of the charts which are always next week :mad:

This week was meant to be cold but now we are being told next week could be proper cold with snow .

Anyone notice a recurring them here? (I will give you clue: carrot & donkey )

Roll on spring!

Derek

So winter is over is it :rolleyes:

Gee lovely i must have been imagining the cold outside this evening.

Do you only judge winter by snowfall in our temperate climate.

Roll on spring you say......winter over...so we're somewhere in between are we

Danno

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Would we not of recorded lower during the recent cold snap , Vilian (may be spelt incorrectly) recorded air temps around the -18 at his ground level location during the recent cold snap ?

Or can the recording only be got when a weather ballon has been released , and how often is that ?

Soundings are done at Valentia twice a day I think... http://www.met.ie/latest/valentia.asp Could be more though.

The last cold spell had around -11, -12 or -13c uppers over us in January. Villians -17.7c would have been caused by cold air getting colder by "sinking" to the bottom of the valley floor above snow covered ground.

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

Fair point, this forum can be very exciting especially when it actually snows

D

Yep tis when all the blow-in's climb up onboard the winter rollercoaster !:)

pistolpetes11

Danno wrote: »

Soundings are done at Valentia twice a day I think... http://www.met.ie/latest/valentia.asp Could be more though.

The last cold spell had around -11, -12 or -13c uppers over us in January. Villians -17.7c would have been caused by cold air getting colder by "sinking" to the bottom of the valley floor above snow covered ground.

Cheers,

I forgot about how our covering of snow would of effected that situation

H2UMrsRobinson

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Yep tis when all the blow-in's climb up onboard the winter rollercoaster !:)

The more people on it, the faster it goes...:D

pauldry

Phew. I thought i was banned :eek: Dont do that to me. I promise ill like snow.

Yup wer in the lap of the gods whatever the high pressure wants to do will dictate our weather. The next run will show less blue over ireland and prob a milder scenario. Wonder why they come out with charts like the one just shown. Even if it is correct why predict such an extreme event with uncertainty?

I think it is so people will visit the websites and say wow look at those charts. Remember a couple of months ago all the potential storms that were predicted by the models and we barely got a gale most times. Accurate long range is far off and we can just converse over the expected scenario here and hope it occurs....though at xmas a lot of the long range was pretty spot on.

Despite my scepiticism (how the hell do you spell that?) of longer range models I would envisage this month being cold for the rest of the month and this milder weather that met eireann predict will only be temporary.

Remember at Xmas we had a mild blip on 26th - 28th and then more cold. I would think the overall pattern for February looks cold and snow will fall .Its a matter of when where and how heavy. Though here in the Northwest I reckon we will see our 3rd drier than normal month in a row (why cant they come in Summer)

Deep Easterly

Recorded my lowest relative humidity of the year recorded today. Fell down to 49% at 4.15pm today :eek:. Currently -2.1c, so at least am scraping a frost out of this spell so far.

pistolpetes11

pauldry wrote: »

Phew. I thought i was banned :eek: Dont do that to me. I promise ill like snow.

Yup wer in the lap of the gods whatever the high pressure wants to do will dictate our weather. The next run will show less blue over ireland and prob a milder scenario. Wonder why they come out with charts like the one just shown. Even if it is correct why predict such an extreme event with uncertainty?

I think it is so people will visit the websites and say wow look at those charts. Remember a couple of months ago all the potential storms that were predicted by the models and we barely got a gale most times. Accurate long range is far off and we can just converse over the expected scenario here and hope it occurs....though at xmas a lot of the long range was pretty spot on.

Despite my scepiticism (how the hell do you spell that?) of longer range models I would envisage this month being cold for the rest of the month and this milder weather that met eireann predict will only be temporary.

Remember at Xmas we had a mild blip on 26th - 28th and then more cold. I would think the overall pattern for February looks cold and snow will fall .Its a matter of when where and how heavy. Though here in the Northwest I reckon we will see our 3rd drier than normal month in a row (why cant they come in Summer)

Why do you say the next run will show less blue , ? Just a hunch or something more substantial ?

Pangea

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Recorded my lowest relative humidity of the year recorded today. Fell down to 49% at 4.15pm today :eek:. Currently -2.1c, so at least am scraping a frost out of this spell so far.

What does low humidity levels actually mean , or do?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

What does low humidity levels actually mean , or do?

It means Donegal in particular will get very little snow;)

what he means is the air is very dry and a result there is no fog in tuam tonight

snaps

very dry frost here in mayo this morning, -5.8c currently & barely any white on the car or grass! Its so cold ive had to get up to put the heating on!

owenc

whats rising the temps in my area it was -3c at midnight now its -1c with appsolutely no frost at all pure green.... typical for me sittinh waiting for a good cold night.... -6c is forecast tonight i usually beat the coldest on a cold night but i doubt it and were is mt crainum getting 0c maxes on the weekend flipping meto is forecasting 7c max here! this is no cold spell...

roryc1

owenc wrote: »

whats rising the temps in my area it was -3c at midnight now its -1c with appsolutely no frost at all pure green.... typical for me sittinh waiting for a good cold night.... -6c is forecast tonight i usually beat the coldest on a cold night but i doubt it and were is mt crainum getting 0c maxes on the weekend flipping meto is forecasting 7c max here! this is no cold spell...

M.T.
THE WEEKEND will be a bit milder but only marginally, with further mixed wintry showers possible mainly in the east. Highs will be 5-6 C, lows around
-2 C.

Speak Now

owenc wrote: »

whats rising the temps in my area it was -3c at midnight now its -1c with appsolutely no frost at all pure green.... typical for me sittinh waiting for a good cold night.... -6c is forecast tonight i usually beat the coldest on a cold night but i doubt it and were is mt crainum getting 0c maxes on the weekend flipping meto is forecasting 7c max here! this is no cold spell...

Please explain

If the coldest is the coldest how do you beat it :pac:

jambofc

0.2/-3
cloudy rubbish
so the roller coaster is delayed another week,don't ever remember the charts being so bad after +72 - +96,will wait with baited breath in hope,but to many let downs is turning me into a non-believer.........;)

Deep Easterly

jambofc wrote: »

0.2/-3
cloudy rubbish
so the roller coaster is delayed another week,don't ever remember the charts being so bad after +72 - +96,will wait with baited breath in hope,but to many let downs is turning me into a non-believer.........;)

Subtle hints on this morning's models that more lively weather may break through towards the last 3rd of the month. Probably won't happen of course, but a straw to clutch on.

Su Campu

The 00Z GFS show a major ramp in those charts I posted last night. Much more extensive sub -40°C 500hPa pool now by Wednesday, with a shortwave trough just north of Scotland. IF it comes off, it will give massive convection with an excellent chance of a Polar Low. I haven't seen a setup like this in our area in a long time....but it's also still a long time away, so don't go warning your friends just yet!



I've plotted a Skew-T of that setup for off the northwest Donegal coast, showing the possibility of convection up to around 400hPa (~22,000ft), CAPE around 1000J/kg, so plenty of precipitation likely.

ninebeanrows

Hi folks:

Just got reminded of what happened with a similar synoptic as progged next week by some models on NW.

An infamous day in late February 2001 (Pancake Tuesday Snowday)




As per GFS 6z for next Tuesday (Pancake Tuesday)





Get hoping!!

WolfeIRE

I would be egg-static if that came off WC. In fact I would be flipping delighted.

Redsunset

Even though its not nailed yet , my money is still on this low sweeping down from the north making things much more interesting.

I would like it somewhat further east to get a better northerly flow but i won't be too fussy,just glad its thinking about coming close to here at all.

Situation could be marginal for a time as it approaches but then conditions would favour snow that should spread down the country,heaviest in north and west but midlands could see a right old dumping too.

Yes i am somewhat ramping because i feel this could be our last chance this winter to see something significant as regards snowfall(all you higher folk will disagree here).

And as Su Campu as pointed out,this has the potential to become a Polar low bonanza.God im really ramping now.

Its a touch and go situation,the bloody thing could all go pear shaped in next run but until it does im banking on a scenario that has the potential at the moment to be that ticking time bomb i've mentioned earlier after such a long time waiting.

Here's to (raises glass) our own little Snowmageddan??







PS Serious health warning attached to this post.

ninebeanrows

Some light sneachta showers about to push onto Dublin coast in next hour perhaps??

6.3c here :eek:

Light rain and hail showers earlier

roryc1

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/
Would love to be in Time sq today


Can't wait to see what it's like later

whitemocha

roryc1 wrote: »

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/
Would love to be in Time sq today


Can't wait to see what it's like later

i will be there on friday hopefully thats if we make it there

nacho libre

i'd have more confidence in next week being really wintry if the ecmwf was showing identical charts to the gfs. the yr.no outlook for next week is crap. still, the gfs could be right for once.