Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

lucernarian

Deleted User wrote: »

The story of this spell is , it's always a week away though...
The first two charts wolf posted are rainy except above 800ft should they verify.
The Ecm one looks plain wierd but snowier lower down by far and uhm explains jeans enthusiasmo for next week probably.
But it's Fi and ecm isn't verifying well atthe moment-so If your a snow lover,I'd be more concerned with the wrong side of marginal gfs charts in the nearer time.

+1.

Yeah, there's going to be a lot of instinct and gut calls made on this forecast before the weekend, with the way the models could make small changes that make all the difference for us.

I will add that I can't really understand how a strong LP could descend from beyond Iceland at a reasonable pace, yet miraculously also not drag much of the cold air with it to displace the -4 850hPa air around Ireland/UK. The evolution of the latest GFS day 6 chart in terms of airmass temperatures and the track of the LP just doesn't add up for me. I would expect the LP to fill in much more quickly than it does if there is no new input of colder air or indeed much warmer air coming into the system.

I don't feel qualified enough to make further conclusions from this, but certainly the chart for Tuesday is going to look crucially different for us on Tuesday. The t+120 FAX chart also gives a clue of this. It looks more realistic, though the outcome from that doesn't look too good from an Irish point of view.

nacho libre

well those two charts WolfIre posted would not concern me unduly. its what we would reasonably expect after a couple of days because as we all know the longer a colder airmass hangs around us the more likely it is to be modified - or as my grandpa use to say if it snows more than two days it'll eventually turn back to rain by the third day. what would really concern me is with the lp so close is that we are on the wrong side of a mild sector throughout and snow gets confined to high ground. i see that lp either making thing too marginal, or going too far east and leaving us cold, but in a slack flow with england getting a dumping.
it rarely works out for us and if it's being forecast it's even less likely to happen. so i'm going to try and not get my hopes up in the next few days because we've been here before so many times only to be let down.

Deep Easterly

ECM at 216hrs:



possible attack from the SW. Can the Atlantic break through this time?

snaps

very cold morning here in mayo. -6.7c currently.

owenc

snaps wrote: »

very cold morning here in mayo. -6.7c currently.

do you think anyone lower than -5c will get an ice day?

munsterlegend

Outlook per Met Eireann this morning:

Cold Friday night with widespread frost, fog and also some icy surfaces. The weather will continue cold throughout the rest of the weekend and into next week also. There will be a good deal of dry weather for most places, but some showers are expected at times, mainly over northern areas. The nights will be cold with frost and fog, with temperatures in the range plus 2 to -4 C. Saturday and Sunday will be largely dry and bright days, with overnight frost and fog clearing gradually. But some fog and frost may linger into the afternoon each day. Top temperatures typically 3 to 7 C. Some exceptions on Sunday - some showery rain is likely at times over Ulster, with some showers likely to push into north Leinster later in the day. A little les cold on Monday, some dry periods, but some further rain or showers in places too, but amounts should be small. Top temperatures 5 to 8 C.

This outlook doesn't seem to share Mis Byrne's optimism from last nights forecast. has there been a bit of a downgrade again?

jambofc

well surprise surprise the real cold has been pushed out till next weekend now
it all looks very marginal for snow(to me)next week now,going to be very localised by the look of it.

Deep Easterly

snaps wrote: »

very cold morning here in mayo. -6.7c currently.

Not so cold just to your southeast but temp is falling still. -5.4c in Tuam town at the moment. Now have frost formations on the inside of windows! :eek:

rhonin

-6.3C here at the minute. Lovely frosty, sunny morning.

snaps

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not so cold just to your southeast but temp is falling still. -5.4c in Tuam town at the moment. Now have frost formations on the inside of windows! :eek:

Frost is very dry, not as white as it usually is! I think its a bit like before, the lower you are the colder it is. Im in a hole where i live, i notice knock airport for instance which is high is only -1c. Still -4.6c here with beautifull sunshine beaming through the windows now!

The best solution would be to close down the weather models open output for this part of the world for a month so we can get on with what we have,it's all we are going to get by the looks of things unless we move to the mountains :pac:

Rebelbrowser

Deleted User wrote: »

The best solution would be to close down the weather models open output for this part of the world for a month so we can get on with what we have,it's all we are going to get by the looks of things unless we move to the mountains :pac:

Agreed. I'd nearly prefer not to know the forecast and just wake up each morning with a genuine hope that the day holds a chance of snow (esp. when it feels cold enough to snow most days). I know a lot of you call ths weather boring but its actually beautiful weather this week - sunny, cold and crisp. I'd take it most winters but I'm not even noticing it because I'm fixated on the "big one" around the corner (which corner we ain't ever gonna turn I think - well not this winter).

Would be delighted to be proved wrong but Spring is just around the corner....

mike65

The sun has got his hat on at an ever jauntier angle...

Deep Easterly

Current cam shot overlooking Galway Bay from the docks:



light anticyclonic haze has wiped away the Clare hills! :eek::pac: Temp on 0.9c here inland.

Su Campu

Well there you go, it's happened. :mad: A downgrade on last night's and this morning's GFS runs. The 500hPa sub -40°C pool is now nowhere near us, so no chance of that Polar Low. Incipid low to mid level temperatures. Going on this, about all we can expect is a few hail and rain showers, except at the very highest levels.

The UKMO is saying the same thing, wehereas the ECMWF has the low more to our northeast.

But it ain't looking good, unless we can get a big turn around.

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

Well there you go, it's happened. :mad: A downgrade on last night's and this morning's GFS runs. The 500hPa sub -40°C pool is now nowhere near us, so no chance of that Polar Low. Incipid low to mid level temperatures. Going on this, about all we can expect is a few hail and rain showers, except at the very highest levels.

The UKMO is saying the same thing, wehereas the ECMWF has the low more to our northeast.

But it ain't looking good, unless we can get a big turn around.

its nearly better that its pessimistic this far out - normally its looking very good and then downgrades. hopefully there will be bigger and for the better changes nearer the time.

ninebeanrows

Yea 6z GFS very disappointing with regard to the positioning of the low.

As early as 96hrs you see where it is going to go.

What's hilarious is that it goes so far west that it keeps southeastern England in a continental and bitter Southeasterly feed! Typical eh.

Lets hope the ECM is right.

UKM and 6z GFS not great.

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

Lets hope the ECM is right.

UKM and 6z GFS not great.

Yesterday I was reading hopes that the GFS would be right, now it's the ECM we are going for. What the models are showing now is what they have been showing over the last 3 or 4 days. Nothing special. A cool, polar maritime airflow with some cold rain showers, esp along coastal areas. Nothing more.

HxGH

Ah Jazus! Not again....

H2UMrsRobinson

For sale: One unused ticket for Snowllacoaster... a bit dog-eared but entact, unlike my sanity...:mad:

Deep Easterly

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

For sale: One unused ticket for Snowllacoaster...bit dog-eared but entact, unlike my sanity...:mad:

Don't give up your ticket just yet, you could always scrape a sleet or wet snow shower. Something to look forward too...:)

H2UMrsRobinson

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Don't give up your ticket just yet, you could always scrape a sleet or wet snow shower. Something to look forward too...:)

LOL...ever the optimist DE. I'm giving it till Friday next week to suprise me and then I'm hanging up my snow shoes. :cool:

munsterlegend

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

LOL...ever the optimist DE. I'm giving it till Friday next week to suprise me and then I'm hanging up my snow shoes. :cool:

i still think we'll get something next week! just as things have disimproved considerably for next week there is still time for an improvement.

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

i still think we'll get something next week! just as things have disimproved considerably for next week there is still time for an improvement.

I hope you are right ML, because so far all I can see is a big pile of arse on the models today.

munsterlegend

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I hope you are right ML, because so far all I can see is a big pile of arse on the models today.

well there is no scientific basis to what i'm saying just hopeful. judging by what ye experts and chart readers are saying we need a few things to change and all is not lost yet. usually its nailed on this far out and goes horribly wrong closer to it - hopefully this time it will go horribly right!

H2UMrsRobinson

munsterlegend wrote: »

i still think we'll get something next week! just as things have disimproved considerably for next week there is still time for an improvement.

I love the positivity ML. I'm relatively new to Boards and the weather forums are brilliant. An eclectic mix of people who actually understand the charts and models (you know who you are and big thumbs up to you guys for your posts) and people like me who know very little but appreciate extremes of weather none-the-less. I love the fact that the weather will do what it wants and no amount of hoping, praying or snow dancing will change that, but that doesn't stop me climbing aboard every time the models show a dumping coming our way. Maybe not this winter and maybe not next but at some stage over the next decade I predict a total white-out for Ireland.(Beware this prediction is based solely in FI territory and should be taken with a very large pinch of salt, there's plenty of it to go around...)

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

well there is no scientific basis to what i'm saying just hopeful. judging by what ye experts and chart readers are saying we need a few things to change and all is not lost yet. usually its nailed on this far out and goes horribly wrong closer to it - hopefully this time it will go horribly right!

Good point, although I think the word "experts" is a bit too strong for us model watchers on boards. There is no one more expert than anyone else, we are just a bunch of enthusiasts sharing a common dream.

nacho libre

there must be a lot of broken toys over on netweather today.

it could well be due to my pessimistic nature, but i have more confidence in the models being right when they show a downgrade. even though i told myself it would all fall asunder i'm still disappointed. if there is one crumb of comfort to be had, it is with the low not doing what we want that we hang on to the cold. still i would have prefered two snowy days then back to mild south westerlies, rather than it being cold and dry - we've had enough of it this winter! so i guess it's back to looking at fi- only problem is we are running out of time...

Gonzo

my dream at this stage is for a warm, dry and sunny summer, I think theres about as much chance of it as seen snow blizzard whiteout conditons throughout Ireland next week.

snaps

mike65 wrote: »

The sun has got his hat on at an ever jauntier angle...

Yes its high enough now for me to get washing dry out on the line!