Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

darkman2

Contrary to the above we could be moving toward a significant snow event next Monday or Tuesday. Watch this space...

patneve2

Maybe a bit too early to be saying this, but the optimal positioning of the low is over wales (for me cause i live in Dublin:D) illustrated beautifully on that 2001 chart. The positioning of the low there would make temps perfect for snow in Ireland, while Southern and South Eastern England would have to deal with a mild sector...

nacho libre

darkman2 wrote: »

Contrary to the above we could be moving toward a significant snow event next Monday or Tuesday. Watch this space...

i'll be as glad as anyone if i'm wrong. however, i note your use of the word could. If the ecmwf starts showing really wintry weather in later runs then i'll buy into it that there is a fair chance of significant snowfall.

I see Noaa/NWS are stateside favouring the gfs today in their blend of models for their forecasts.
Interesting and not a mention of the ecm...

nacho libre

"BTW the GFS has just overtaken ECM as higher Verification for the last few days...that means the GFS has been performing better than the ECM but not quite as good as the UKMO."

hmm just read this over on netweather. ok that grounds for optimism, but as we know it can easily go pear shaped for us. i just don't want to get sucked in too soon and then end up bitterly disapppointed.

Musicman2000

It would be great to see this coming off, but its normally a let down:(

Kippure

darkman2 wrote: »

Contrary to the above we could be moving toward a significant snow event next Monday or Tuesday. Watch this space...

Correct, we have a front coming over the top of the high as the hp heads west towards greenland. This front will be flung south over ireland, Strongs winds may develop with it too.


Latest Fax charts show this
Attachment not found.

Kippure

Kippure wrote: »

Correct, we have a front coming over the top of the high as the hp heads west towards greenland. This front will be flung south over ireland, Strongs winds may develop with it too.


Latest Fax charts show this
Attachment not found.

keep an eye on the crucial thickness line.
The 528 on that is in over East wales.
Later faxes may have it further west.

It's likely to start as rain everywhere away from high ground as the air mass over Ireland is simply not cold enough.
It will be pretty wild up on military road though.

Incidently up around croghan here in south wicklow,the old drifts from a month ago are still there-that has to be in the wow territory.
There is some fresh snow from the past few days but,the old drifts are there,quite icy at this stage but there.

I'm holding fire on what is going to happen as those fronts pass through after the initial sea level rain/sleet.

Redsunset

300 miles east or west as regards position of low will have a serious say on what type of precipitation we see.

All main models showing roughly where its progged to be so it looks good at the moment that it will pop down to say hello.

sarsfield06

Black Briair What sort of depths are those snow drifts? I see some snow patches from Dublin city centre they look quite big but hard to say how deep they are. And you mentioned fresh snow, was that just a flurry or more than that?

WolfeIRE

redsunset wrote: »

300 miles east or west as regards position of low will have a serious say on what type of precipitation we see.

All main models showing roughly where its progged to be so it looks good at the moment that it will pop down to say hello.

it's strange to see such a similar output from the respective models out to Tuesday. Of course, the path of this low could also mark the end of the cold spell. Hopefully it will deliver us a memorable snow event

If it played out like that.
Theres the potential for heavy snow in Cork,all up through west munster,through connaught and into Ulster and North Linster.

Outside chances East munster and then the rest of leinster.

It would be marginal I think but just the right side of marginal.

sarsfield06

sarsfield06 wrote: »

Black Briair What sort of depths are those snow drifts? I see some snow patches from Dublin city centre they look quite big but hard to say how deep they are. And you mentioned fresh snow, was that just a flurry or more than that?

about a foot of icy old snow.
The fresh stuff is only a cm or 2 but it's sticking around.

The stuff you see from Dublin city centre is probably towards the kippure mast-with light new cover elsewhere on height I'm guessing.

delw

Deleted User wrote: »

If it played out like that.
Theres the potential for heavy snow in Cork,all up through west munster,through connaught and into Ulster and North Linster.

Outside chances East munster and then the rest of leinster.

It would be marginal I think but just the right side of marginal.

So Black Briar if it was to move a bit further west would dublin&d rest of lenister hav a better chance of heavy snow?

Redsunset

The low would need to move more into the north sea for the east to have a better feed of air

I think Dublin will south to maybe Greystones anyway.
The southeast is in the snow NO hope territory as the winds will be governed by the low pressure.
The precip will be in bands around it and near the low.
So to be honest,it's a now cast.

Theres likely to be mild sectors embedded too despite what it now looks like.
If a polar low developed it might be snow mageddon.

Hard to say,I've low confidence in any detail at this stage except for the fact that I think the snow with the advancing fronts on sunday will favour areas inland and high ground.
Rain more than likely at least ititially on the coast-medium confidence on that but only should the existing synoptics play out like they are currently modeled.

It's actually FI pretty much at this stage ie subject to changes that can mean big differences.

Su Campu

The GFS 850hPa wet bulb potentials are hinting that precipitation next Wednesday would be as snow above around 300-400ft, with more sleety stuff at lower levels. Though the sounding I posted earlier hints at heavy hail showers.

Of course it's ridiculous speculating on the fine details at this stage, but one to keep an eye on.

redsunset

redsunset wrote: »

The low would need to move more into the north sea for the east to have a better feed of air

I don't think so actually.
If it does that,the precip would be mostly in GB and confined to Ulster.
I may be against the GB centric thoughts on NW on that one but then they aren't concerned for Ireland south of Newry/Enniskillen.

Redsunset

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think so actually.
If it does that,the precip would be mostly in GB and confined to Ulster.
I may be against the GB centric thoughts on NW on that one but then they aren't concerned for Ireland south of Newry/Enniskillen.

I was thinking more in line of convective stuff from irish sea for the east to see better precip if the whole lot moved east a tad.I don't care what they say on NW.Talk alot of rubbish them except a handful of posters

redsunset

redsunset wrote: »

I was thinking more in line of convective stuff from irish sea for the east to see better precip if the whole lot moved east a tad.I don't care what they say on NW.Talk alot of rubbish them except a handful of posters

Problem is wind flow.
That low will slide somewhere.
If it starts south and then drifts in over wales,it will depend on the length of the shower banding which will be curved and might stay out over the irish sea.The low may aswell in my opinion stay as close to Eastern Ireland as possible and keep moving rather than hang around-it is all up in the air as to how wintry this will end up.

And maybe,just maybe we will get a decent N E or Easterly at some point in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
After then it can just fcek off tbh as far as I'm concerned.

There is still a risk that even if this low comes down that we have a polar maratime muck that leaves all snow above 800ft.

We'll have to just wait and see.

Redsunset

Yeah i suppose,lets keep it all to ourselves then and hope we are the right side of marginal.

Better not go all belly up by this evenings charts.
Doubt it though.

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

it's strange to see such a similar output from the respective models out to Tuesday. Of course, the path of this low could also mark the end of the cold spell. Hopefully it will deliver us a memorable snow event

yes, it's quite likely if the charts are realised, we'll see south westerlies a few days afterwards but then isn't that's nearly always the way when we get snow from the north. if we do get mild south westerlies for the rest of the month, then so be it as long as we get a polar low out of next weeks setup. heavy and continuous snow virtually countrywide for a good three-four hours would be well worth it. ideally it would freeze a bit beforehand and then let the pl push down during the night.

pistolpetes11

Would we be using that horrible word marginal if the following chart was to come off ?



Looking through that run from 0-180hrs its amazing to watch how the colder air takes over big time , well to my untrained eye that is !

Is there any where that you can get an animated run of that model/chart ?

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

Yeah i suppose,lets keep it all to ourselves then and hope we are the right side of marginal.

Better not go all belly up by this evenings charts.
Doubt it though.

heh. i didn't want to say this over on net weather but i felt like it when i saw some posters complaining about missing out. they've stolen enough of our snow over the years so i won't feel any sympathy if they miss out this time.

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Would we be using that horrible word marginal if the following chart was to come off ?



Looking through that run from 0-180hrs its amazing to watch how the colder air takes over big time , well to my untrained eye that is !

Is there any where that you can get an animated run of that model/chart ?

anytime you have low that near us from the north it's marginal. if the low goes too far east or west it could well be curtains. the hope is it does what it's progged to do on the latest runs and we get at least two days of wintryness before the cold air is inevitably modified by the atlantic and we end up with sleety rain at lower levels.

pistolpetes11

nacho libre wrote: »

anytime you have low that near us from the north it's marginal. if the low goes too far east or west it could well be curtains. the hope is it does what it's progged to do on the latest runs and we get at least two days of wintryness before the cold air is inevitably modified by the atlantic and we end up with sleety rain at lower levels.

Sorry im lost ,

Is they really cold air not in centre of that Low ?

If a low is nearly sitting on us does that mean there would be no precip ?

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Sorry im lost ,

Is they really cold air not in centre of that Low ?

If a low is nearly sitting on us does that mean there would be no precip ?

i'm open to correction on this, but there should be plenty of precipitation from the low, but it's just a question of positioning, it could easily drag in maritime air to ensure we end up with sleet at lower levels with snow high up, or England could end up with up with the good stuff if it goes too far to the east. right now it looks like it's in the perfect position for us.

Su Campu

One thing to remember is the Rosenblum Rule, which states that the track that a deepening low will actually take will be to the left of that forecast by the models. This rule really applies to vigorously deepening systems, which next week's system doesn't look to be at this stage, but if it does start to deepen more quickly then it could end up further to our east.

Of course there could also be a big fat High there instead come this time next week! :rolleyes:

owenc

roryc1 wrote: »

M.T.
THE WEEKEND will be a bit milder but only marginally, with further mixed wintry showers possible mainly in the east. Highs will be 5-6 C, lows around
-2 C.

he said 0c-2c maxes for friday... hows that going to happen... maybe we are getting -7c mins on thrusday...

Speak Now

owenc wrote: »

he said 0c-2c maxes for friday... hows that going to happen... maybe we are getting -7c mins on thrusday...

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with stronger winds again, ENE 15-30 mph, and this could produce some snow in coastal southeast counties and inland on some hills. Otherwise skies should be partly cloudy to overcast. Highs will be about 3-4 C after morning lows near -3 C.