Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

pistolpetes11

owenc wrote: »

he said 0c-2c maxes for friday... hows that going to happen... maybe we are getting -7c mins on thrusday...

I think you may be mistaken , i dont see any reference to 0 to -2 maxs in his report.

Snowaddict

GFS 12Z Operational has a much slower Retrogression process, which serves to drive the main Polar Trough further East & subsequently brings down colder 850mb temperatures over Ireland.

Again, we are seeing a repeat of the trend discussed last night - that is a slowing of the Retrogression process & subsequent East/Southeastward correction of the main synoptical features.

It remains to be seen if this trend will be backed by today's European Model Guidance, however I think that while we may lose the main area of low pressure, this could well be a ''safer approach''.

In fact, there's a Northeasterly flow on the 12Z GFS Evolution.

Something definitely to watch but remember again, the trend towards the Southeastward correction of the largescale synoptics. This may well be reversed nearer to Realtime Verification, but it's something to be watched.

I think many would 'Bank' the 12Z GFS Operational run, with multiple troughs embedded in the flow. Convection over land will also be stronger now into mid February.

SA

owenc

oh sorry but he still says this for tomorrow...THURSDAY will have lighter winds and so any freezing fog could last quite a while; otherwise, it should be dry and cold with sunny intervals. Highs will be in the range of zero to 4 C.

nacho libre

met.ie:
The cold, dry weather will continue throughout the weekend and for the start of next week also. Daytime temperatures from Friday to Sunday will continue to range 5 to 8C generally and at night they will fall to about -2 to -5C, with a widespread severe frost. Mostly the weather will be dry, but occasional showers may develop at times along the Leinster and Ulster coasts. An increase in the humidity of the air over the weekend will mean that the road surfaces at night will tend to be more icy than they have been. The winds will be light to moderate from a mainly north-easterly problem. During the day there will be good sunny spells and although cold, the hours around midday will be relatively pleasant. Temperatures will continue to stay low for the start of next week with the winds turning northerly in direction. Some light wintry showers will occur over Ulster and north Leinster next Monday and Tuesday, but most parts of the country will continue to stay dry. Still no sign of any early Spring weather!

darkman2

The European models look to be following the GFS and putting the center of the low pressure into the North Sea thus dispensing with the mild sector at it's core. As mentioned above this means Ireland has a longer fetch of Artic Air and some interesting features would drift down in this sort of flow aswell.

patneve2

Too far East or too far West (regarding the low): that is the question. What is sure is that there will be an Arctic blast at the start of next week and the possibility of troughs/bands of showers/potentially Polar Lows is increasing day after day.

darkman2

UKMO actually has it further west and maintains the risk of a more substantial fall of snow for Ireland whilst Britain seems on the wrong side. Curiously another Easterly could emerge from this situation.




So still alot of uncertainty about the early days of next week.

nacho libre

yes, a lot of nail biting ahead;)

when they get happy over on netweather that's a bad sign for us. although, if the lp does go further east i guess we've a better chance of holding on to the cold for longer.

forkassed

Somewhere in between the GFS and UKMO would be ideal- the LP coming down the spine of the uk would keep us out of any warm sectors and bring cold in from the North/North East with plenty of snow--hopefully the ECM shows something like this.

i want snow like this next week>>http://www.wusa9.com/video/livestream/9newsnow-chat.aspx

Light snow shower here at the moment -actual real snow flakes!

1.3c air
-2c dp

Deep Easterly

Awful runs again from the UKMO and ECM this evening. Pressure lowers but apart from a few coastal showers, the same old same old. I hate stagnant, windless weather. Drives me cracked.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Awful runs again from the UKMO and ECM this evening. Pressure lowers but apart from a few coastal showers, the same old same old. I hate stagnant, windless weather. Drives me cracked.

!?? unless there has been a complete turn around, there should be wintry showers next week. the question remains will there be widespread snow, rather than rain and sleet, at lower levels

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

!?? unless there has been a complete turn around, there should be wintry showers next week. the question remains will there be widespread snow, rather than rain and sleet, at lower levels

Are there not wintry showers happening now in places? A slack low pressure over Ireland at this time of year does is of little use to those of us who live in inland. Yes, the odd rogue may filter in at times, but I personally am tired of getting the scraps.

Gonzo

just had a light dusting of snow, melting now tho

jambofc

Gonzo wrote: »

just had a light dusting of snow, melting now tho

:eek:


0.6/-3
bone dry here

pauldry

looking at the latest predictions for next week that cold low is now taking a more easterly direction. no surprise there. by next saturday the models will be showing it over the North Sea and not us. Just a hunch

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Are there not wintry showers happening now in places? A slack low pressure over Ireland at this time of year does is of little use to those of us who live in inland. Yes, the odd rogue may filter in at times, but I personally am tired of getting the scraps.

well that is a change if they both are only showing a slack flow for next week, but of course that could change again because there has been great uncertainity as to the position of the low pressure. it certainly would be a huge letdown if next week ends up being similar to this week. though it would fit the pattern of what's been happening so far.

meanwhile Liverpool are losing to Arsenal:(

Tom Cruises Left Nut

nacho libre wrote: »

.

meanwhile Liverpool are losing to Arsenal:(

:D:D

nacho libre

i'll take this loss so long as there is some decent snowfall next week.

i know it shows how much of a fan i really am:pac:

munsterlegend

i thought the weather forecast from Jean Byrne this evening was quite optimistic..she mentioned possible snow spreading from the north on sunday and looked like getting very cold from after monday on. any of the experts have any comments on it?

WolfeIRE

Latest GFS run for Wednesday. Plenty of precip (snow) nationwide. Models have been calling this set up for 2-3 days at this stage. Previous posters have suggested correctly that the position of that low system marginally to our west or east will change things considerably. And I agree Munsterlegend, Jean Byrne certainly did whet the appetite for snow lovers

munsterlegend

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Latest GFS run for Wednesday. Plenty of precip (snow) nationwide. Models have been calling this set up for 2-3 days at this stage. Previous posters have suggested correctly that the position of that low system marginally to our west or east will change things considerably. And I agree Munsterlegend, Jean Byrne certainly did whet the appetite for snow lovers.

thanks wolfe thought i was dreaming that forecast myself. thought there would be a lot more comment given the forecast but i suppose it is another 6/7 days away and it can all go pearshaped. still though at least its not a mild west south westerly.

Min

Jean mentioned "dry sunshine" for tomorrow.

derekon

Jean's forecast after the Nine O'Clock News was definitely an upgrade on her forecast earlier in the evening

Looking ahead to the weekend, it will be mainly dry with sharp to severe frost at night

However as high pressure pulls away from Ireland, some rain will push down south over the island which could turn to snow for a while.

Then the interesting part

Jean mentioned that after the rain pushes through on Monday, it will become "a lot colder" - and then just above Ireland and to the west of Scotland was a low pressure system that looked to me to be mainly of snow...this would then push south.

Is this the much talked about Polar Low?
Are chances of some decent sneachta next week increasing? :cool:

Interesting few days ahead

Derek

Deep Easterly

Min wrote: »

Jean mentioned "dry sunshine" for tomorrow.

On the TV forecast yesterday afternoon on RTE 1, the forecast was for a lot of "overcast cloud". I kid you not.

no Derek.
polar lows are usually only identifiable within 36hrs.

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

i thought the weather forecast from Jean Byrne this evening was quite optimistic..she mentioned possible snow spreading from the north on sunday and looked like getting very cold from after monday on. any of the experts have any comments on it?

It was an optimistic forecast if you ignore the number of times she mentioned the word "rain"

questionmark?

Wdnt surprise me if we saw rain sorry i mean snow. Although Monday evening just gone experienced a light snow shower that lasted for approx 20mins lodged on roof of car and then quickly melted. Clear skies tonight a wee bit frosty.

p.s. i miss my snowman

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

thanks wolfe thought i was dreaming that forecast myself. thought there would be a lot more comment given the forecast but i suppose it is another 6/7 days away and it can all go pearshaped. still though at least its not a mild west south westerly.

The story of this spell is , it's always a week away though...
The first two charts wolf posted are rainy except above 800ft should they verify.
The Ecm one looks plain wierd but snowier lower down by far and uhm explains jeans enthusiasmo for next week probably.
But it's Fi and ecm isn't verifying well atthe moment-so If your a snow lover,I'd be more concerned with the wrong side of marginal gfs charts in the nearer time.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

The story of this spell is , it's always a week away though...
The first two charts wolf posted are rainy except above 800ft should they verify.
The Ecm one looks plain wierd but snowier lower down by far and uhm explains jeans enthusiasmo for next week probably.
But it's Fi and ecm isn't verifying well atthe moment-so If your a snow lover,I'd be more concerned with the wrong side of marginal gfs charts in the nearer time.

So basically, nothing to look forward to really? I agree.