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Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,013 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Tiniest flakes in Naas the past 10 mins, I mean about 20 flakes a minute ! lol

    Gonna clutch this pack of straws for a while ! :D:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 252 ✭✭danni2


    My post didn't say that they don't deliver anything but it did say that Polar Maratime rarely gives widespread accumulations unless there was a Polar Low. I don't see how highlighting a weather event 10 years ago means that Polar Maratime situations deliver regularly. The 00/01 winter was an exceptional one and mainly Polar Maratime based.

    Those two threads you highlighted are very minor events? One or two inches around Ireland by the looks of it. That is absolutely nothing compared to 00/01 or a whole lot of seasons before it. Or even this season, where the combined easterly/northerlies so far have collectively given quite a lot of places 3 or 4 inches.

    I'm leaving it at that.

    I see the charts really don't want the HP to leave our shores... I'm frankly amazed, but at least the cold burst from the north is still predicted to happen (in 6 days if you call it a prediction:))
    Fair enough, but I have to disagree that the two threads I highlighted were very minor events, they were very short events yes but they gave me heavy and prolong snowfall in my location on these days, and I would love another day like them again. However im not going to discuss this any further, all im saying is that this setup can give nice snowfalls.

    Anyway let's look to the future, it looks like that high will be sitting over us for the next few days then after this we have a potential northerly:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,722 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    pauldry wrote: »
    why do people WANT snow. I hope those charts on www.wetterzentrale.de for next week are FI. I recall being so pi$$ed off with the schno in December n January n wanted a thaw. The charts for next week look like snow at present.

    On the next run they might show milder but it looks like a cold cold spell. Is there anyone out there who hates snow? Or am I the only weather lover who thinks of it as a nuisance. Let the US n Russia keep it is what I say. Its pretty, yes - pretty awful.

    SNOW RANT OVER

    How dare you:mad: Banned for a week:p


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,722 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    danni2 wrote: »
    Fair enough, but I have to disagree that the two threads I highlighted were very minor events, they were very short events yes but they gave me heavy and prolong snowfall in my location on these days, and I would love another day like them again. However im not going to discuss this any further, all im saying is that this setup can give nice snowfalls.

    Anyway let's look to the future, it looks like that high will be sitting over us for the next few days then after this we have a potential northerly:)

    you're quite right those events you cited gave me a decent covering too. with this in mind **if** the charts for next week are realised, then a nice surprise feature could pop up too, resulting in quite a few places perhaps seeing a decent covering:D
    although, i'm not getting my hopes up because it rarely works out for us. so i fully expect to see a massive downgrade closer to the time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    bray man wrote: »
    with every day I smile more and more watching this froum :D

    And why is that? Perhaps your smiling is concerned with the fact that there is no sign of any horrendous synoptical trends at all for the entire Medium Term on all available NWP Guidance? That there are no signs of the dreaded default pattern that we have had to endure for many of the past winters with assoicated anomalous warmth?

    Perhaps it is the fact that, despite this not being exceptionally deep cold by any means, it does mark the third cold spell & pronounced period of largescale blocking to have developed during Dec-Feb.

    That to me, is quite something to smile about given the patterns of recent winters, regardless of whatever adjustments we see to the general pattern.

    :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Its always so close, But never happens:) The Spring is on the way and I have a feeling its just not going to happen:mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Its always so close, But never happens:) The Spring is on the way and I have a feeling its just not going to happen:mad:

    It may appear that way, but it has already happened twice this winter. Ireland, is simply one grain of sand on a very large beach in terms of the overall global pattern.

    A two-three hundred mile southward shift of a blocking High is really not at all significant globally in terms of the largescale pattern & yet it marks the difference between convective snow showers for Ireland or Anticyclonic cold, the latter being the outcome we have ended up with, at least for the moment.

    There are so, so many variables in the mix that's it's very, very difficult to get the pattern perfect in terms of deep cold & snow for Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Well said, do you think there is a chance of snow next week? I know its impossible to predict for our littel Island as you said, according to MT and Met Eireann on Rte its meant to get a littel bit milder the weekend


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,722 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Snowaddict wrote: »
    And why is that? Perhaps your smiling is concerned with the fact that there is no sign of any horrendous synoptical trends at all for the entire Medium Term on all available NWP Guidance? That there are no signs of the dreaded default pattern that we have had to endure for many of the past winters with assoicated anomalous warmth?

    Perhaps it is the fact that, despite this not being exceptionally deep cold by any means, it does mark the third cold spell & pronounced period of largescale blocking to have developed during Dec-Feb.

    That to me, is quite something to smile about given the patterns of recent winters, regardless of whatever adjustments we see to the general pattern.

    :rolleyes:

    you're quite right snowaddict. this winter has been an unusually cold one overall. it's just that in terms of snowfall it hasn't been as good as it could have been. though this just further proves your point about how difficult it is for us to get significant snowfall in Ireland

    i think if next winter we see south westerlies for weeks on end we'll look back and fully realise just how exceptional this winter was in terms of sustained cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,722 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well said, do you think there is a chance of snow next week? I know its impossible to predict for our littel Island as you said, according to MT and Met Eireann on Rte its meant to get a littel bit milder the weekend

    it depends what the high pressure does next. if it does what's envisioned by the models, after the weekend, then yes. if it stays close by or sinks in over us then it'll just be average temps, or just below, by day with cool nights.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Well said, do you think there is a chance of snow next week? I know its impossible to predict for our littel Island as you said, according to MT and Met Eireann on Rte its meant to get a littel bit milder the weekend

    It's difficult to say at this point. It may turn slightly less cold for a time in the transitional period as the High Retrogrades Northwestwards - again this depends highly on the rate of Northwestward movement of the high.

    As any cold front moves down across the country, it will first be preceeded by a warm front, with Arctic air following down behind the initial front, which would lead to the risk of snowfall, especially with pressure falling.

    Interestingly, Jean Byrne on the 9.30PM Broadcast mentioned the High moving away to the Northwest with weather fronts of Rain, Sleet & Snow moving down across the country later in the weekend and into early next week.

    Again, the exact positioning of this trough will be vitally important. If we could hold the pattern modelled tonight & shift the main trough some 150-200 miles East/Southeastwards the pattern would be excellent.

    Again, the transitional period to full Retrogression is still uncertain, but mutli-model Guidance does indicate complete Retrogression by Day 6 tonight. That is the key to any further developments, we need a successful and quasi-complete, about 75% Retrograde of the main HP cell to get the optimum pattern in place.

    SA :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Cheers SA, keep thoese updates coming, great reading:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    This is what we're looking for, the best setup of the winter so far, Polar Low territory if I ever saw it. :D If this does materialise then our prayers will be answered.

    Getting this exact seup though is a lot to ask, and 8 days away is pure FI. But something to strive for!

    104852.gif

    104853.gif

    104854.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Well said, do you think there is a chance of snow next week? I know its impossible to predict for our littel Island as you said, according to MT and Met Eireann on Rte its meant to get a littel bit milder the weekend

    They said last week it would be mild this week , I think there giving a bonus in RTE for the amount of times you can say mild in a forecast !


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,722 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Su Campu wrote: »
    This is what we're looking for, the best setup of the winter so far, Polar Low territory if I ever saw it. :D If this does materialise then our prayers will be answered.

    Getting this exact seup though is a lot to ask, and 8 days away is pure FI. But something to strive for!

    180_27.gif

    damn that first chart looks snowtastic:eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Su Campu wrote: »
    This is what we're looking for, the best setup of the winter so far, Polar Low territory if I ever saw it. :D If this does materialise then our prayers will be answered.
    -20 UPPERS :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Do I detect a ramp Su Campu ;)

    In all seriousousness though, you are quite right. With rapid instability developing, there would be strong upper forcing and convective developments taking place..

    Let's hope that we can hold the general trend in place.

    It's just to get the Retrograde locked in & in motion, the Southward diving trough will follow.

    SA :)
    Su Campu wrote: »
    This is what we're looking for, the best setup of the winter so far, Polar Low territory if I ever saw it. :D If this does materialise then our prayers will be answered.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Su Campu wrote: »
    This is what we're looking for, the best setup of the winter so far, Polar Low territory if I ever saw it. :D If this does materialise then our prayers will be answered.

    Getting this exact seup though is a lot to ask, and 8 days away is pure FI. But something to strive for!

    180_27.gif180_26.gif180_25.gif

    I detect a slight bit of optimism from you there Su, mite even go as far as to say there was a hint of a ramp about it !

    Well Im jumping on the roller coaster now so I get a good see before everyone else piles in.

    Hope they dont get it too bad in London over the weekend , I am flying in on Saturday morning and leaving on Monday , hopefully I wont get stuck or the game wont get called off !


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,722 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    that first chart looks similar to one from the winter of '69 which delivered substantial snow fall in the north and northwest. ah it's just too good to be true:(


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    that first chart looks similar to one from the winter of '69 which delivered substantial snow fall in the north and northwest. ah it's just too good to be true:(

    Down with that talk , we are all going to get a pasting of snow !


    PMA ! PMA !


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  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    To see a textbook beginning of a Retrograde phase, scroll through T+78 to T+90 on tonight's GFS 18Z Operational evolution & follow the warmer main core of the HP cell as it backs Northwestwards..

    SA :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Snowaddict wrote: »
    To see a textbook beginning of a Retrograde phase, scroll through T+78 to T+90 on tonight's GFS 18Z Operational evolution & follow the warmer main core of the HP cell as it backs Northwestwards..

    SA :)

    You can see it moving back here , I did not spot it at first !

    104826.png

    104827.png

    104828.png

    104829.png

    104830.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,722 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    redsunset wrote: »
    OK lets do this!!!

    The Stomp helps get the attention of the gods.
    The entire danced is performed in a low posture as if you are snowboarding. The first step is to lift your left foot off the ground while raising your right hand and elbow up like a salute to your forehead. Return your left foot and right hand while lifting your right foot and left hand the same way for Step 2. Steps 3 and 4 are the same as Steps 1 and 2, you should repeat this sequence of four steps twice.
    snowdance-1.gifsnowdance-2.gifThe Stomp : Step 1 and 2


    The Search tells the gods that you are in need of something.
    This one is easy. As if you are looking for something, bring your hand up to your brow and search. The first step you search to the right, and lean into it. The second step, you search to the left. It looks as if you are searching for snow. Steps three and 4 are the same. Repeat this sequence of steps twice.
    snowdance-3.gifsnowdance-4.gifThe Search : Step 1 and 2

    The Wind tells the gods that you need help with the weather.

    Again this is easy. First step, hold both of your arms out to the right and wave them in a hula motion, as if the wind is coming and blowing them to the right. Step to is the same to the left, make sure to make the transition smooth as if the wind has changed directions. Again, steps three and four are the same. Repeat this sequence of 4 twice.
    snowdance-5.gifsnowdance-6.gifThe Wind: Step 1 and Step 2

    The Snow tells the gods that you need snow. The Snow ends in a Japan Grab, to let the gods know where you need the snow to fall.
    The fourth sequence is crucial. Raise your hands high in the air and then, waving them quickly as if to mimic snow falling then, you slowly lower your arms down to the ground. Go from standing on the tips of your toes and follow your hands all the way down to the ground. When you get down there, jump up smoothly with the music in a triumphant ‘Japan Grab.’ The Japan Grab is when you jump off the ground and bend your knee so that your lower left leg so that your foot goes back and to the side, like a J, reach down quickly before you come back to the ground and grab your left foot to the side with your right hand. Your left hand should be raised in triumph. When you get back down to the ground, everyone claps once together. Then, repeat the whole dance from the beginning until you notice a drop in temperature.
    snowdance-7.gifsnowdance-8.gifThe Snow: The Snow and Japan Grab
    That is it, the best thing you can do to help improve your chances of a weekend snow!
    with next week in mind... ;) all together now:pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Ok time to get educated for me !

    How do you know its moving back ?

    Hi PP,

    At T+78, you can see the centre of the HP with it's warmer 500mb core, is centred just to the Northwest of Ireland. At the same time, longwave troughing (areas of low pressure) are developing off Newfoundland and spreading in an elongated manner Eastwards across the North Atlantic. The motion associated with these lows, along their Northern periphery, serves to 'pull'' the main area of HP Northwestwards.

    If you gradually scroll through the charts, you will see that the warmer 500mb core and centre is steadily moving towards Greeland & that the Retrograde process is almost complete by T+120 - Day 5.

    What has happened is that the main core of HP has moved Northwestwards towards Southern Greenland, allowing for troughing to develop across the High North and to gradually advect much colder air Southwards.

    SA :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    No idea what the last few posts mean, so when is the apocalypse arriving this time? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,676 ✭✭✭Rougies


    PistolPetes, it's much easier to see on the 500hPa Geopotential /pressure charts.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    -20 UPPERS :eek:
    At the 700mb level,which is higher that the 850mb level,the one we normally look at and lower than the 500mb level,that we often also look at where you see minus 30's and minus 40's in cold spells.

    It's mighty fine though.
    That low in the irish sea might at that stage be a bonanza for north wales given the flow around it.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Another amateur question for you lads !

    What's the Lowest uppers temp ever recorded in Ireland ? or do they even keep a record of them ?

    Has it ever happened to us that, the deep purple color on the charts has arrived over us ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 252 ✭✭danni2


    you're quite right those events you cited gave me a decent covering too. with this in mind **if** the charts for next week are realised, then a nice surprise feature could pop up too, resulting in quite a few places perhaps seeing a decent covering:D
    although, i'm not getting my hopes up because it rarely works out for us. so i fully expect to see a massive downgrade closer to the time.
    Yeah they were very great snow days:D and looking at the charts for next week we could see something similar but same here im not getting my hopes up either and I also hope you are totally wrong about seeing a massive downgrade but with many let downs in the past you may be right.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Another amateur question for you lads !

    What's the Lowest uppers temp ever recorded in Ireland ? or do they even keep a record of them ?

    Has it ever happened to us that, the deep purple color on the charts has arrived over us ?

    January 1987 had 850hPa (1500m up there) air temps of around -18c. I don't ever remember seeing colder on charts, however, some Valentia soundings or NI ones might have recorded colder, doubtful in Valentia tho.


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