Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

Tiniest flakes in Naas the past 10 mins, I mean about 20 flakes a minute ! lol

Gonna clutch this pack of straws for a while ! :D

pauldry wrote: »

why do people WANT snow. I hope those charts on www.wetterzentrale.de for next week are FI. I recall being so pi$$ed off with the schno in December n January n wanted a thaw. The charts for next week look like snow at present.

On the next run they might show milder but it looks like a cold cold spell. Is there anyone out there who hates snow? Or am I the only weather lover who thinks of it as a nuisance. Let the US n Russia keep it is what I say. Its pretty, yes - pretty awful.

SNOW RANT OVER

How dare you:mad: Banned for a week:p

bray man wrote: »

with every day I smile more and more watching this froum

And why is that? Perhaps your smiling is concerned with the fact that there is no sign of any horrendous synoptical trends at all for the entire Medium Term on all available NWP Guidance? That there are no signs of the dreaded default pattern that we have had to endure for many of the past winters with assoicated anomalous warmth?

Perhaps it is the fact that, despite this not being exceptionally deep cold by any means, it does mark the third cold spell & pronounced period of largescale blocking to have developed during Dec-Feb.

That to me, is quite something to smile about given the patterns of recent winters, regardless of whatever adjustments we see to the general pattern.

:rolleyes:

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Its always so close, But never happens:) The Spring is on the way and I have a feeling its just not going to happen:mad:

It may appear that way, but it has already happened twice this winter. Ireland, is simply one grain of sand on a very large beach in terms of the overall global pattern.

A two-three hundred mile southward shift of a blocking High is really not at all significant globally in terms of the largescale pattern & yet it marks the difference between convective snow showers for Ireland or Anticyclonic cold, the latter being the outcome we have ended up with, at least for the moment.

There are so, so many variables in the mix that's it's very, very difficult to get the pattern perfect in terms of deep cold & snow for Ireland.

Snowaddict wrote: »

And why is that? Perhaps your smiling is concerned with the fact that there is no sign of any horrendous synoptical trends at all for the entire Medium Term on all available NWP Guidance? That there are no signs of the dreaded default pattern that we have had to endure for many of the past winters with assoicated anomalous warmth?

Perhaps it is the fact that, despite this not being exceptionally deep cold by any means, it does mark the third cold spell & pronounced period of largescale blocking to have developed during Dec-Feb.

That to me, is quite something to smile about given the patterns of recent winters, regardless of whatever adjustments we see to the general pattern.

:rolleyes:

you're quite right snowaddict. this winter has been an unusually cold one overall. it's just that in terms of snowfall it hasn't been as good as it could have been. though this just further proves your point about how difficult it is for us to get significant snowfall in Ireland

i think if next winter we see south westerlies for weeks on end we'll look back and fully realise just how exceptional this winter was in terms of sustained cold.

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Well said, do you think there is a chance of snow next week? I know its impossible to predict for our littel Island as you said, according to MT and Met Eireann on Rte its meant to get a littel bit milder the weekend

It's difficult to say at this point. It may turn slightly less cold for a time in the transitional period as the High Retrogrades Northwestwards - again this depends highly on the rate of Northwestward movement of the high.

As any cold front moves down across the country, it will first be preceeded by a warm front, with Arctic air following down behind the initial front, which would lead to the risk of snowfall, especially with pressure falling.

Interestingly, Jean Byrne on the 9.30PM Broadcast mentioned the High moving away to the Northwest with weather fronts of Rain, Sleet & Snow moving down across the country later in the weekend and into early next week.

Again, the exact positioning of this trough will be vitally important. If we could hold the pattern modelled tonight & shift the main trough some 150-200 miles East/Southeastwards the pattern would be excellent.

Again, the transitional period to full Retrogression is still uncertain, but mutli-model Guidance does indicate complete Retrogression by Day 6 tonight. That is the key to any further developments, we need a successful and quasi-complete, about 75% Retrograde of the main HP cell to get the optimum pattern in place.

SA

Su Campu wrote: »

This is what we're looking for, the best setup of the winter so far, Polar Low territory if I ever saw it. If this does materialise then our prayers will be answered.

Getting this exact seup though is a lot to ask, and 8 days away is pure FI. But something to strive for!

damn that first chart looks snowtastic:eek:

Do I detect a ramp Su Campu

In all seriousousness though, you are quite right. With rapid instability developing, there would be strong upper forcing and convective developments taking place..

Let's hope that we can hold the general trend in place.

It's just to get the Retrograde locked in & in motion, the Southward diving trough will follow.

SA

Su Campu wrote: »

This is what we're looking for, the best setup of the winter so far, Polar Low territory if I ever saw it. If this does materialise then our prayers will be answered.

that first chart looks similar to one from the winter of '69 which delivered substantial snow fall in the north and northwest. ah it's just too good to be true:(

To see a textbook beginning of a Retrograde phase, scroll through T+78 to T+90 on tonight's GFS 18Z Operational evolution & follow the warmer main core of the HP cell as it backs Northwestwards..

SA

redsunset wrote: »

OK lets do this!!!

The Stomp helps get the attention of the gods.

The entire danced is performed in a low posture as if you are snowboarding. The first step is to lift your left foot off the ground while raising your right hand and elbow up like a salute to your forehead. Return your left foot and right hand while lifting your right foot and left hand the same way for Step 2. Steps 3 and 4 are the same as Steps 1 and 2, you should repeat this sequence of four steps twice.

The Stomp : Step 1 and 2

The Search tells the gods that you are in need of something.
This one is easy. As if you are looking for something, bring your hand up to your brow and search. The first step you search to the right, and lean into it. The second step, you search to the left. It looks as if you are searching for snow. Steps three and 4 are the same. Repeat this sequence of steps twice.

The Search : Step 1 and 2

The Wind tells the gods that you need help with the weather.
Again this is easy. First step, hold both of your arms out to the right and wave them in a hula motion, as if the wind is coming and blowing them to the right. Step to is the same to the left, make sure to make the transition smooth as if the wind has changed directions. Again, steps three and four are the same. Repeat this sequence of 4 twice.

The Wind: Step 1 and Step 2

The Snow tells the gods that you need snow. The Snow ends in a Japan Grab, to let the gods know where you need the snow to fall.
The fourth sequence is crucial. Raise your hands high in the air and then, waving them quickly as if to mimic snow falling then, you slowly lower your arms down to the ground. Go from standing on the tips of your toes and follow your hands all the way down to the ground. When you get down there, jump up smoothly with the music in a triumphant ‘Japan Grab.’ The Japan Grab is when you jump off the ground and bend your knee so that your lower left leg so that your foot goes back and to the side, like a J, reach down quickly before you come back to the ground and grab your left foot to the side with your right hand. Your left hand should be raised in triumph. When you get back down to the ground, everyone claps once together. Then, repeat the whole dance from the beginning until you notice a drop in temperature.

The Snow: The Snow and Japan Grab

That is it, the best thing you can do to help improve your chances of a weekend snow!

with next week in mind... all together now:pac: