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Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later
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What's rare and what would it bring?
I no longer want cold, every time it dips below 5c or so these day, my fingers all dry up and split, very nice
~ As a result, I now want Spring!
The massive block stretching from the pole through Greenland and down the middle of the north Atlantic0 -
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Ireland set for another cold snap
12/02/2010 - 08:12:53
Met Éireann is warning we can expect a stretch of sub-zero temperatures for the next five days.
Bitterly cold temperatures are expected this weekend with sub-zero overnight temperatures.
However - forecasters say we are unlikely to see the extreme snowy or icy conditions which ground the country to a halt last month.
The cold snap is being attributed to a high pressure system moving in sending temperatures to between -3C and -6C in most areas.
The midlands and west will see the lowest temperatures.
Motorists are being urged to take care on the roads where frost could make conditions particularly dangerous.0 -
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No upgrade on latest GFS run for next Wednesday afternoon. More tightly packed isobars is good news but made irrelevant by the lack of any direct feed from the East or North. The low over Britain has moved about 50 miles east, which is a continuation of its move east in recent runs. If this continues to a position over the north sea/channel then we might see colder uppers being dragged over Ireland.
At least the run did not downgrade significantly on last night's run. Next run will be 3.30pm.
Maybe Su Campu could explain how that Canadian low effects matters on the most recent run? Would i be correct in saying any progression east or north east of that low would direct colder air from greenland over ireland?
The below 4 charts for Wed afternoon are from the last four runs, starting with the most recent. Note the similarity between the most recent chart and the first chart (from a run yesterday morn).
So, all hope is not lost edven though up to Wednesday the weather is as dull as dsihwater (for now). Again, wait until Sunday's runs before deciding to buy a rain mac or snowboard midweek.0 -
Firstly, instead of surface isobars we need to look at the 850 and 700hPa heights and temperatures, as these are the gradients that dictate the overall advection of the airmasses. Where the height contours are closest together and the temperature contours cross them at the greatest angle is where the advection will be greatest. So the cold air is advected southwards before it has a chance to become modified by the warmer seas beneath.
We see below that next Wednesday there is no real arctic feed of air towards Ireland. We sit in a circulation pattern, with a slack gradient to our north. There is cold advection taking place near Iceland, but it will miss us to the west, and in any case will quickly modify as it does so, so we wouldn't expect the 850hPa -10°C isotherm to make much more progress southwards from Iceland. Similarly with the 700hPa chart.
The position of the high to our northwest, and the low to our east, will influence the strength of these gradients, which is why the amount of retrogression of the high westards in the coming says will be important for us. This retrogression will be influenced by the pattern upstream of it, namely the thermal trough coming off northeastern Canada. If that trough strengthens and stays put, it will strengthen the high and limit its westward movement, meaning a strong pressure differential in the northeast atlantic, ie. a strong gradient, therefore strong cold advection.
If the trough weakens and moves southeastwards, which it is progged to do, then this cuts the warm geopotential feed to the high, weakening it and allowing the high space to move further westards, thereby weakening the gradient and allowing the low to our east to fill. In that case we're in no man's land, with the usual cold-but-not-cold-enough scenario to prevail.0 -
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Do not fear,our soviet snow hoarders have decided to give us snowmageddan.
I admire the very optimistic run.
No chance.??????
However not an awful lot of changes need to take place comparing it with GFS.
IF an easterly push of siberian air happens around 80N (Easterly zonal propagation from split vortex)and our ridge does not retrogress as quickly well then who knows.
Just throwing this out there to keep as small bit of interest in occuring situation,a long shot though.
Hoping more than anything,and hope is a fools game.0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »awful frustrating really, but it just reinforces once again how extremely difficult it is for us to get snow. too bad we can't move this country over near russia. as then no matter what's going on in the atmosphere upstream, or the wind direction, we're guaranteed snow most of the time.
Nacho, you'll give yourself a hernia thinking like that
. Do you want us to become all Soviet now? Good grief man, you would sell us like that just to see some snow? Next thing you will want us to become Bolsheviks. Is there nothing you won't do? :P 0 -
Unfortunately,in my experience,the soviet model is still run by the central planners and is in a word shoite..pardon my langrell.
All is lost for the time being tbh,I see no worthwhile signs of decent cold air advection this wayin the next week or 2 anyway.
Time is moving on.
I've seen 2 significant snow events in my lifetime in march.On both occasions,the snow hung around for a week.
So I s'pose if it comes it can still do the job [both of those were Easterlies and the snow was mainly in the south east actually more than 30 years ago
one of them actually rivaled jan '82 and was just 3 years before it].
I'm doubtfull though.0 -
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I am sticking with Nacho on this i.e. Applying for planning permission to move Ireland closer to Russia
In Soviet Russia planning permission not necessary.Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.
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