Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

my dream at this stage is for a warm, dry and sunny summer, I think theres about as much chance of it as seen snow blizzard whiteout conditons throughout Ireland next week.

Heck we are long way off Summer!

Its Feb 11th!

Gonzo

Weathercheck wrote: »

Heck we are long way off Summer!

Its Feb 11th!

Thats what 3 Washout summers in a row does to me!

ch750536

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

...at some stage over the next decade I predict a total white-out for Ireland....

Charts or gtfo

delw

cant say im surprised tings have been downgraded:(, typical,but heres hopen tings can turn around,fingers crossed.

WolfeIRE

new gfs rolling out now. will keep you posted on upgrade/downgrade for next week

owenc

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yea 6z GFS very disappointing with regard to the positioning of the low.

As early as 96hrs you see where it is going to go.

What's hilarious is that it goes so far west that it keeps southeastern England in a continental and bitter Southeasterly feed! Typical eh.

Lets hope the ECM is right.

UKM and 6z GFS not great.

Ugh I was getting excited for this blizzard and to sicken them but then it gets better for them ugh I hate them!!! And this is no cold spell like rising from -6c to 6c is no cold spelll!!! Ugh

I haven't seen the 12z gfs yet.
However,I'm not confident at all of snow potential away from the mountains and a few flukey spots next week.
The air thats cold enough just remains 1000's of miles away and what flows down to us is a release of what I call North sea maratime air.
Useless.

February is well capable of delivering a cold spell,it can store and receive air good enogh for prolonged dettling snow.
that air just never got a chance to dive in here thanks to the cóck blocking position of that high.

nacho libre

looks like a damp squib according to this John Holmes guy:

"Many factors appeared to be in favour of
continuing cold but they were also showing that the high was going to retrogress, move west, and this is exactly
what is seen to be happening. No sign of any really mild air into next week but with the block too far west to give
widespread low level snow that the coldies wish for. So again, a bit like last February, much seemed in favour of a
wintry spell but it looks as if it will be a rather cold and rather wet spell for most on low ground but with some
chance of a few exceptions to this.
Again the models and more importantly the actual weather at the time may decide differently. But based on what
the 3 main models are showing I think that widespread low level snow next week is a non starter. There will be
exceptions to low level snow but not on a widespread basis. Snow for high ground is a different thing and for areas
from North Wales and the Peak District north then some high level areas seem likely to get a fairly heavy fall. This
more likely the further north you are and the higher you are. More snow for the Scottish ski resorts seem highly"
likely."

so we keep the cold for longer but get no snow:mad:

Inadvertently Owen has posted a 12z Gfs there in his quote.

Replace useless Northsea air with returning useless north sea air with a bit of a useless well modified polar maratime.

I'll let the rest of ye tell me if theres an Easterly after that.

arctictree

Looks like GFS 12z is an upgrade. Still, the exciting stuff is in FI.

WolfeIRE

Latest GFS run an upgrade on morning run

Morning run first
latest run second image

Well thats like saying my sunday stroll on croghan mtn gets me nearer to the moon.
With minus 5 850's it's still a rainy chart below a thousand feet asl..

I'm not excited.

(hang on,I see -7 850's there,that brings the snow level in that north easterly [which is new due to the lp's positioning] down to about 500ft inland and some favoured lower areas near by whoop eee doo... still not widespread by a long shot-rain for most)

WolfeIRE

Deleted User wrote: »

Well thats like saying my sunday stroll on croghan mtn gets me nearer to the moon.

I'm not excited.

saying it is an upgrade? It is an upgrade.

I didn't mention snow. Speaking of, this latest run would increase risk of snow in lower levels of east and north.

my edit came in at the same time as your post wolf.
Theres a few slight hardly visible shades of blue there equating probably to -7 850's.
That would bring the snow possibly down to the m50 near lamb doyles [and possibly Docarch ] but sleety rain elsewhere if it verified.
Lots of snow if lots of precip on the higher ground depending of course on banding positioning.

I'm not hopefull and I'm not trusting these models at all.
Up and down like a nuns knickers.

WolfeIRE

No prob m8

I think all we can do at this stage is wait until the weekend/Monday. The bottom line is that the charts cannot be trusted in winter time beyond 48hrs in my opinion.

My guess is that it will turn milder from late Saturday to early Tuesday, after which temps will drop and shwoery activity will intensify from the North West or North. Nationally we are on the wrong end of marginal but the latest GFS does move us closer to conditions that would favour snowfall at lower levels.

snaps

Weathercheck wrote: »

Heck we are long way off Summer!

Its Feb 11th!

Summer starts in April here and is finished by June!

snow ghost

Alas I think today may have been our summer... twas nice while it lasted.

derekon

Just watched the latest forecast from Met Eireann online (after 6 news)
Rain is due Monday and after that it will remain unsettled next week with more rain and temps of 8oC

So much for snow
Those models really can't be trusted unless they are 24/48 hours away.

I am gonna go out on a limb now and make a prediction that there will be a thread started by some bright spark that will confirm that a cold spell will materialise.........................next week!

I really am starting to get a sense of deja vu Great fun though!!


Derek

owenc

ugh a shower came over us and it was -1c and the dp was -2c! It rained for frig sake and it just soaked the frost and rose the temp ugh ugh ugh!

delw

derekon wrote: »

So much for snow
Those models really can't be trusted unless they are 24/48 hours away.

I am gonna go out on a limb now and make a prediction that there will be a thread started by some bright spark that will confirm that a cold spell will materialise.........................next week!

I really am starting to get a sense of deja vu Great fun though!!


Derek

couldnt agree more

WolfeIRE

Lads. The models can upgrade as quick as they downgrade. The reason for that is that the slightest repositioning of a low can make all the difference. If, as you agree, that models cannot be trusted more than 48 hours out then I am sure you will agree that these latest charts are not written in stone.

There is a very cold pool of air located over much of northern and western europe. The models upgraded the potential for cold air and potential snow midweek next week (the period we have been focusing on for the past few days). It is very likely that milder air, not significantly milder though, will reinforce itself on Saturday through to early Tuesday. The signs are, however, that colder air will push south and west from then on.

The potential risk for snowfall next week remains moderate to high, particularly for the north, northwest, northeast and higher ground elsewhere.

MODELS OUTPUTS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NEXT (upper air temps, circa 1500 metres. Ideally uppers should be -7 or -8 for snow to fall at lower levels)

owenc

owenc wrote: »

ugh a shower came over us and it was -1c and the dp was -2c! It rained for frig sake and it just soaked the frost and rose the temp ugh ugh ugh!

proof positive ,theres something wrong with your thermometer.

derekon

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Lads. The models can upgrade as quick as they downgrade. The reason for that is that the slightest repositioning of a low can make all the difference. If, as you agree, that models cannot be trusted more than 48 hours out then I am sure you will agree that these latest charts are not written in stone.

There is a very cold pool of air located over much of northern and western europe. The models upgraded the potential for cold air and potential snow midweek next week (the period we have been focusing on for the past few days). It is very likely that milder air, not significantly milder though, will reinforce itself on Saturday through to early Tuesday. The signs are, however, that colder air will push south and west from then on.

The potential risk for snowfall next week remains moderate to high, particularly for the north, northwest, northeast and higher ground elsewhere.

MODELS OUTPUTS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NEXT (upper air temps, circa 1500 metres. Ideally uppers should be -7 or -8 for snow to fall at lower levels)

Mmmm.........sounds very familiar

Only joking WolfIRE, I understand the models change all the time and that all we can do is interpret the models as they come out.

However, I don't believe for a minute the above charts will materialise in reality. Three weeks now and every week the models predict cold weather and snow.......the following week :mad:

Derek

WolfeIRE

derekon wrote: »

However, I don't believe for a minute the above charts will materialise in reality. Three weeks now and every week the models predict cold weather and snow.......the following week :mad:

Derek

Hi Derek.

The charts we need to pay attention to are on Sunday. Between now and then I would expect to see the models swing back and forth and frustrate us.

I think that we are as likely to see snow next week as we are milder weather. So plenty to play for. Wait until Sunday.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Hi Derek.

The charts we need to pay attention to are on Sunday. Between now and then I would expect to see the models swing back and forth and frustrate us.

I think that we are as likely to see snow next week as we are milder weather. So plenty to play for. Wait until Sunday.

Its soooo frustrating to wait though !!!!! :mad:

derekon

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Hi Derek.

The charts we need to pay attention to are on Sunday. Between now and then I would expect to see the models swing back and forth and frustrate us.

I think that we are as likely to see snow next week as we are milder weather. So plenty to play for. Wait until Sunday.

Cheers,

Will watch out for the Sunday charts. Things might change - however as the previous poster has just said, it can be so frustrating!

Derek

Tom Cruises Left Nut

derekon wrote: »

Cheers,

Will watch out for the Sunday charts. Things might change - however as the previous poster has just said, it can be so frustrating!

Derek

The worst thing is that im already wishing my weekend away !

ninebeanrows

I suppose a thing to remember about the unsettled mess that arrives early next week is that with thicknesses so low it will be a prime example of a heavy showers giving heavy snow and other showers just giving rain.

Much of the atmosphere will be freezing with just the very lower section going to and above freezing at times.

It will be an interesting period and does sure have the potential to get snowy although without a real injection of cold from the east there is unlikely to be a big snow that stays on the ground for long.

But its the type of scenario where you could get some real heavy snow showers giving temporary coverings and then showers at night would probably lie for the night.

WolfeIRE

that low system pushing south after Tuesday AM is what we need to keep an eye on - a reintroduction to colder weather and snow risk

nacho libre

sleety rain by day with possible snow showers, albeit localised, by night is better than nothing. still it is a pity the gfs charts of a few days ago, which had the potential for a pl to form are nowhere to be seen now. so while the charts may change slightly in our favour again, i doubt we'll see them revert to a massive upgrade in terms of snow for next week.