Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Snowaddict

Absolutely solid ECMWF tonight.. Bitterly cold conditions persisting to T+168 and beyond..

For once we have them at T+72 also.. Darkman2 is correct in that if ECMWF has the pattern correct tonight, out to T+168 and beyond, then there would indeed be snowfalls in the Northeast, East and Southeast in particular. The snow risk later on, from around T+144 would transfer to areas from Dublin southwards.

Even out to T+168 and beyond Easterly/Northeasterly winds persist with a continued risk of snowfall, especially further south.

That's not to say that the next run won't change but if ECMWF out to T+168 tonight were to develop exactly as modelled, then there would be disruptive cold and snow, particularly in the areas mentioned above, but with everywhere at risk from severe cold.

SA

GavinH

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

I should have bet money on Waterford being the only place NOT to get snow !!!! Its verging on ridiculous now !! :mad:

Cork is the same boat.

darkman2

The final chart for the following Monday (240hrs out)




No end in sight. Getting colder and colder.

Pangea

Hmm , I wonder is there a chance of beating the -19 or -20 recorded in Sligo all those years ago.

ltdslipdiff

GavinH wrote: »

Cork is the same boat.

Yeah but Cork is the capital of Munster..............Waterford has nothing except a new bridge that makes it easier to bypass...........

Snowaddict

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

I should have bet money on Waterford being the only place NOT to get snow !!!! Its verging on ridiculous now !! :mad:

Waterford is at risk of snowfall based on all of the multi model guidance that we have seen this afternoon/this evening.

That's not saying it will happen by any means, however it is certainly in the general risk zone from for example, even the latest ECMWF guidance, especially East Waterford.

Again though, that's not by any means a guarantee, but the trend is very positive if you are hoping for snow.

Snowaddict

Snowaddict wrote: »

Absolutely solid ECMWF tonight.. Bitterly cold conditions persisting to T+168 and beyond..

For once we have them at T+72 also.. Darkman2 is correct in that if ECMWF has the pattern correct tonight, out to T+168 and beyond, then there would indeed be snowfalls in the Northeast, East and Southeast in particular. The snow risk later on, from around T+144 would transfer to areas from Dublin southwards.

Even out to T+168 and beyond Easterly/Northeasterly winds persist with a continued risk of snowfall, especially further south.

That's not to say that the next run won't change but if ECMWF out to T+168 tonight were to develop exactly as modelled, then there would be disruptive cold and snow, particularly in the areas mentioned above, but with everywhere at risk from severe cold.

SA

Excelent news.
I notice Met Eireann as early as tonights radio broadcast has picked up on Tuesday and Wednesdays risk in the East[so unlike early this morning they must be looking at the ensemble data that we don't see and recognising a risk] and North-more especially the East I'd imagine but I haven't looked at the detail too much yet...as I havent had the time...I'm too busy pegging snowballs

peasant

Pangea wrote: »

Hmm , I wonder is there a chance of beating the -19 or -20 recorded in Sligo all those years ago.

I'm all for beating records ...but not this kind ...not with the cardboard houses, crap building standards and poor infrastructure that we have here.

Those kind of temperatures would see people freeze to death.

Sierra Oscar

We still have that freezing fog around these parts, bitterly cold.

ffarrell

GavinH wrote: »

Cork is the same boat.

I do hope you get a bit of snow in Cork and Waterford city but snow is so rare there that it is difficult to predict when this may happen. The East is dry in general but colder so when the east or northeast wind blows it generally snows a bit like in February ( a lot) and New Year's eve - also quite a lot depending on where abouts on the East coast you are. In the Dublin/Wicklow mountains there is literally feet of it with reports of up to 7 and 7 feet in drifte in Sally Gap. Do not worry I have the pictures and will post them tomorrow. I went up in my 4x4. Castleknock and Lucan in Dublin had quite a lot with a good covering in Drumcondra too.:)

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Excelent news.
I notice Met Eireann as early as tonights radio broadcast has picked up on Tuesday and Wednesdays risk in the East[so unlike early this morning they must be looking at the ensemble data that we don't see and recognising a risk] and North-more especially the East I'd imagine but I haven't looked at the detail too much yet...as I havent had the time...I'm too busy pegging snowballs

They will have to mention it pretty soon. This is serious disruption potential

owenc

peasant wrote: »

I'm all for beating records ...but not this kind ...not with the cardboard houses, crap building standards and poor infrastructure that we have here.

Those kind of temperatures would see people freeze to death.

So you think our infractructure is poorer than Canada hmmmm the last time I checked.....

ffarrell

ffarrell wrote: »

I do hope you get a bit of snow in Cork and Waterford city but snow is so rare there that it is difficult to predict when this may happen. The East is dry in general but colder so when the east or northeast wind blows it generally snows a bit like in February ( a lot) and New Year's eve - also quite a lot depending on where abouts on the East coast you are. In the Dublin/Wicklow mountains there is literally feet of it with reports of up to 7 and 7 feet in drifte in Sally Gap. Do not worry I have the pictures and will post them tomorrow. I went up in my 4x4. Castleknock and Lucan in Dublin had quite a lot with a good covering in Drumcondra too.:)

Ffarrell, do you think we could get more this evening, or it is all forecast for later? Ive been looking at the charts, but cant yet understand the times and stuff yet.
Thanks

ffarrell

deccurley wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack seems to think the northern half of the country is set for a dusting of snow tomorrow evening, said it'll prob fizzle out a bit as it goes south but im hopeful

Today's weather bulletin signalled heavy snow showers tomorrow in Ulster, Connacht and Leinster, particularly Dublin area, and now although they have amended the Dublin forecast to wintry showers tomorrow evening, they have not amended the leinster one although Dublin is in mid/North leinster. They reallt seem to make it up as they go. Now the say rain, sleet and snoe in Ulster and connacht but 'light'!!!!! You cannot win with them.:mad:

ffarrell

Jake1 wrote: »

Ffarrell, do you think we could get more this evening, or it is all forecast for later? Ive been looking at the charts, but cant yet understand the times and stuff yet.
Thanks

Hi, no, there will not be any snow this evening in Dublin and very little elsewhere either.

Su Campu

Well I spent the night in Birr last night (and awoke there to freezing fog and -4°C this morning) so missed the only snowfall of the winter so far, but imagine my delight to come back to a proper wintry scene this afternoon!

Max temperature today was -1.0°C, currently -4.1°C and falling like a stone. Dewpoint -4.5°C. I think freezing fog is going to become a widespread problem as the air cools to dewpoint over snow and icey surfaces.

The low being talked about east of Scotland is a lee cyclone, formed by the northeasterly airstream over the norwegian mountains. That looks like being a contributor to tomorrows weather as it moves southwestard and troughs out as it does. Ahead of it, winds will be northwesterly, veering around to northeasterly as it travels down the country. This northeasterly brings with it up to a drop in H850 temperatures, with -10°C making it into northeastern Ireland midnight Saturday night.

Although only -5°C H850 ahead of the trough, dewpoints look like being subzero for the north and northwest coasts, so what showers do develop should be of a wintry nature. This will continue as the trough passes, but with the northeasterly now in place, northeastern Ulster should be in a snow shadow, leaving showers confined to the northwest from Derry west, and eastern coastal fringes, like last night.




A nice true easterly sets up shop on the Irish Sea Sunday, which should mean more snow showers for regions from Wicklow to Down. Also this setup could lead to the development of a convergence line off the southeast coast, running east-west, so we could be looking at some sleet-snow showers if this infringes on the south coast late Sunday.

Deep Easterly

Down to -2.0c now with some dry misty patches. Can't get to view tonight's ecm due to crap vodaphone coverage. Does the cold remain throughout?

I may go to bed early so, I stayed up way too late watcing the snow last night. I ned my rest for the snowfest that seems to be coming.:)

200motels

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

I should have bet money on Waterford being the only place NOT to get snow !!!! Its verging on ridiculous now !! :mad:

Tell me about it.

Graces7

Well other good things happen in Waterford!!

See

http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/ireland/first-baby-of-2010-born-in-waterford-440353.html

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

I should have bet money on Waterford being the only place NOT to get snow !!!! Its verging on ridiculous now !! :mad:

Graces7

For these words. thank you.

Fine to try to beat records if it is a private thing; but different when it s such as this.

Thinking of that young man found frozen to death in a 4x4 in Wexford this week.

peasant wrote: »

I'm all for beating records ...but not this kind ...not with the cardboard houses, crap building standards and poor infrastructure that we have here.

Those kind of temperatures would see people freeze to death.

Doyler1981

Weather for Leinster tomorrow!

Tomorrow
Saturday will be bitterly cold. Snow is forecast later and is likely to become persistent and heavier in places in the afternoon. Frost, ice and freezing fog will last throughout the day in some locations. Winds will remain light and temperatures will rise above freezing only in coastal areas.

Su Campu

18Z



00Z



Local Warnings

(DUBLIN)EIDW 011200/021200 FROST WARNING ISSUED AT 011100 SLIGHT AIR WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE GROUND FROST BECOMING MODERATE AIR WITH SEVERE TO VERY SEVERE GROUND FROST OVERNIGHT=

(DUBLIN)EIDW 011200/012200 SNOW WARNING ISSUED AT 011110 RISK OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS=

(SHANNON)EINN 011200/021200 FROST WARNING ISSUED AT 011100 SLIGHT AIR WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE GROUND FROST BECOMING MODERATE AIR WITH SEVERE TO VERY SEVERE GROUND FROST OVERNIGHT=

(CORK)EICK 011200/021200 FROST WARNING ISSUED AT 011100 SLIGHT AIR WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE GROUND FROST BECOMING MODERATE AIR WITH SEVERE TO VERY SEVERE GROUND FROST OVERNIGHT=

(CONNAUGHT)EIKN 011200/021200 FROST WARNING ISSUED AT 011100 SLIGHT AIR WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE GROUND FROST BECOMING MODERATE AIR WITH SEVERE TO VERY SEVERE GROUND FROST OVERNIGHT=

(CASEMENT (BALDONNEL) (MIL))EIME 011200/021200 FROST WARNING ISSUED AT 011100 SLIGHT TO MODERATE AIR WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE GROUND FROST=

(CASEMENT (BALDONNEL) (MIL))EIME 011200/012200 SNOW WARNING ISSUED AT 011110 RISK OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS=

Doyler1981

Doyler1981 wrote: »

Weather for Leinster tomorrow!

Tomorrow
Saturday will be bitterly cold. Snow is forecast later and is likely to become persistent and heavier in places in the afternoon. Frost, ice and freezing fog will last throughout the day in some locations. Winds will remain light and temperatures will rise above freezing only in coastal areas.

Thanks for that. My teenage daughter was due to go to Kill tomorrow. Shes not going now.

Snowaddict

Looking at the 850mb temperatures for the ECMWF 12Z run, there is the risk of some very severe minima at times. Out to T+168, the 850mb temperatures begin to approach -11 in Eastern areas, which is very severe indeed. There is the risk of minima air temperatures going below -12C if these charts are to be proven correct - Very dangerous cold with the combined risk of snowfall in the areas exposed to the flow - Northeast, East & Southeast.

From later on Monday, the real risk of snowfall appears to get going. Northern areas are at risk of snowfall later on Monday night:



Later into Tuesday, snow showers begin to develop over the Irish Sea, beginning to move onshore in Eastern areas. Areas of precipitation will also form off the South Coast, with a slight risk of snowfall in exposed coastal areas here:



Later on Tuesday night, into Wednesday, a period of potentially sustained snowfall later on Tuesday and throughout Wednesday in Southeastern & Eastern areas - certainly a risk to be watched as we get closer to realtime verification.



SA

Deep Easterly

Thanks Mark for that superb analysis. Winter has official begun now that you are here! :cool:

Flyer1

Finally experienced -10c in Waterford this winter, but at 5,500ft !

Took a spin in the plane earlier on for a snow watch. Nothing at all to report in Waterford in the lines of snow. Good bit up the country though.

I took the plane up to 5,500ft above the Comeraghs, nice covering on top, but the snow line stopped exactly where the little access road runs to the mountain and the car park. It's as if it's taunting us !

Very strange fog, I could see it building over the river on my way out to the Comeraghs, out there for 15 mins, then on the way back it took over the city and extended to just on the airport boundary. Then it all disappeared within 15 mins.

My chipper is delivering this evening

Guy will probably walk tho, its so close

Flyer1

Flyer1 wrote: »

Finally experienced -10c in Waterford this winter, but at 5,500ft !

Took a spin in the plane earlier on for a snow watch. Nothing at all to report in Waterford in the lines of snow. Good bit up the country though.

I took the plane up to 5,500ft above the Comeraghs, nice covering on top, but the snow line stopped exactly where the little access road runs to the mountain and the car park. It's as if it's taunting us !

Very strange fog, I could see it building over the river on my way out to the Comeraghs, out there for 15 mins, then on the way back it took over the city and extended to just on the airport boundary. Then it all disappeared within 15 mins.

Cool, not everyday ye read that, I took the plane for a spin

Will ye bring me for a spin??? will ye will ye ?:D

Graces7

What a tempting thought.. ENJOY!

Dream on!

I am baking potatoes in the embers of the fire. Nothing finer..

Jake1 wrote: »

My chipper is delivering this evening

Guy will probably walk tho, its so close