Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Tuesday, 12 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and dry for most regions, up to 25% of normal rainfall near north coast but near zero totals over a week or more inland south. Not a lot of sunshine expected despite high pressure being nearby, air masses will be quite cloudy but there could be a bit of sun at times. Temperatures will average around 2 C deg above normal values.
FORECASTS
TODAY will see a gradual end to any light rain or drizzle still ongoing in south Leinster, and otherwise it will be a rather foggy or misty start to the day but slowly brightening up to a mixture of cloud and sunshine by afternoon. Winds gradually increasing to northwest 30-50 km/hr from a nearly calm start. Highs 8 to 10 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy, cold, isolated frost inland south. Lows -1 to +3 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, cold, isolated wintry showers, winds northerly 40-60 km/hr. Light rain and milder by evening in western counties. Highs 5 to 8 C.
THURSDAY breezy and milder, light rain mostly confined to west and north coast becoming just drizzle or mist further inland, and a drying trend by mid-day, winds westerly 50-70 km/hr, highs 10 to 12 C.
FRIDAY breezy, mild, partly cloudy to overcast, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 11 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK is little change from the above, except that with high pressure closer to southeast, some locations could clear and develop fog or frost there. Otherwise, expect a generally dry and mild weekend with highs 9 to 11 C. Some light rain could brush a few outer northwestern coastal districts as a weak front arrives Sunday, but it likely will not be very noticeable further south.
NEXT WEEK in the run up to the Christmas holiday, this bland and dry weather picture is likely to change fairly rapidly towards middle or end of the week, and stronger Atlantic lows are now being indicated (as we suspected) for the holiday period. Timing will likely change from day to day this far out, would expect rapid changes in weather, strong winds, and battles between cold arctic air from north, and mild Atlantic westerly flows. There is probably a reasonable chance of seeing snow in some parts of the country between 24th and 26th which is not quite a promise of a white Christmas but it's in the realm of possibility with this pattern change expected. But shorter term the weather will be quite bland and ideal for getting around and doing what you need to do.
My local weather is turning quite mild for a few days but there's about 8 cm of snow on the ground so any milder air is chilled near the surface. Monday was foggy at times and a bit of drizzle was falling at 3 deg C. A strong chinook is likely for several days in the regions east of the Rockies and temperatures could soar to 15 or even higher values there, we will be lucky to get much past 5 C with our inversion regime.
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Wednesday, 13 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and dry for most regions, except for western and northern coastal counties where 25 to 40 per cent of normal rainfall will occur, mostly on Saturday, but this rain will not reach east or south coasts and it could be dry throughout the period. Not a lot of sunshine expected despite high pressure being nearby, air masses will be quite cloudy but there could be a bit of sun at times. Temperatures will average around 2 C deg above normal values. Colder in the week following (21 to 27 Dec) and potentially wintry at times, but also a risk of fast-moving storms from the Atlantic across southern counties.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, colder, isolated wintry showers possible on higher terrain, winds northerly 40-60 km/hr. Light rain and turning milder by evening in western counties. Highs 6 to 9 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with lows around 7 C, light rain could cover western and northern counties but will fragment to brief showers elsewhere.
THURSDAY breezy and milder, light rain mostly confined to west and north coast becoming just drizzle or mist further inland, and a drying trend by mid-day, winds westerly 50-70 km/hr, highs 10 to 12 C.
FRIDAY breezy, mild, partly cloudy to overcast, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 11 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK is little change from the above, except that with high pressure closer to southeast, some locations could clear and develop fog and cooler low temperatures there. Otherwise, expect a generally dry and mild weekend with highs 9 to 11 C. Some rain could move into parts of the west and north on Saturday, but once again will likely break up before reaching eastern and southern counties; a few showers are possible but while 10-15 mm rain could fall in west, only trace to 3 mm amounts are likely further east. Sunday will be generally dry and breezy.
NEXT WEEK in the run up to the Christmas holiday, this bland and dry weather picture is likely to change fairly rapidly towards middle or end of the week, and latest guidance suggests colder air will establish itself before Christmas. When stronger Atlantic lows begin to arrive they will be doing battle with this colder air, so a few intervals of wintry or mixed precipitation are possible, especially around 23-24 Dec. It could become stormy at any point between Christmas and New Years. With any luck there will be a few festive snowflakes without disruptions but keep in mind that the bland pattern of the near future could be replaced by challenging travel conditions on some days. We'll know the details better as we get closer to the holiday period.
My local weather was overcast and relatively mild at around 2 C. Quite warm aloft, but an inversion is preventing full mixing down to surface; milder chinook conditions are being enjoyed in snow-free Alberta and even the eastern prairies have very little snow.
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Thursday, 14 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and dry for most regions, except for western and northern coastal counties where 25 to 40 per cent of normal rainfall will occur, mostly on Saturday, but this rain will not reach east or south coasts and it could be dry throughout the period. Not a lot of sunshine expected despite high pressure being nearby, air masses will be quite cloudy but there could be a bit of sun at times. Temperatures will average around 2 C deg above normal values. Colder in the week following (21 to 27 Dec) and potentially wintry at times, but also a risk of fast-moving storms from the Atlantic across southern counties.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy and milder, light rain mostly confined to west and north coast becoming just drizzle or mist further inland, and a drying trend by mid-day, winds westerly 50-70 km/hr, highs 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with lows around 5 C, some drizzle or mist.
FRIDAY breezy, mild, partly cloudy to overcast, and highs 9 to 12 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild, with highs 9 to 13 C. Some rain could move into parts of the west and north, but will likely break up before reaching eastern and southern counties; a few showers are possible but while 10-15 mm rain could fall in west, only trace to 3 mm amounts are likely further east.
SUNDAY partly cloudy, mild and breezy, lows 5 to 7 C, highs 9 to 13 C.
NEXT WEEK in the run up to the Christmas holiday, this bland and dry weather picture is likely to change fairly rapidly towards middle or end of the week, and latest guidance suggests colder air will establish itself around 21st with very strong west to northwest winds associated with a fast-moving cold front. Colder air will follow for several days. When stronger Atlantic lows begin to arrive they will be doing battle with this colder air, so a few intervals of wintry or mixed precipitation are possible, especially around 23-24 Dec. It could become stormy at any point between Christmas and New Years. With any luck there will be a few festive snowflakes without disruptions but keep in mind that the bland pattern of the near future could be replaced by challenging travel conditions on some days. We'll know the details better as we get closer to the holiday period. Not a lot of clarity to report yet, guidance goes from quite cold 21-23 Dec to very mild by 26-27 Dec, so it may be difficult to avoid wintry mix problems just around 24-25 Dec as a lot of people are planning to travel. Would not adjust any plans yet, timing is quite uncertain at range we are discussing.
My local weather was again overcast and relatively mild at around 2 C. The cloud ceiling was just a few feet above us, cutting off views of even the lowest hills around the town (quite claustrophobic). It remains warm aloft, and an inversion is preventing full mixing down to surface; milder chinook conditions were being enjoyed in snow-free Alberta and even the eastern prairies have very little snow. Some snow is now moving into south central BC and then into southern Alberta on Thursday, amounts likely to be 3-5 cm, but it will be back to mild and dry by Friday. A large, and almost a late season tropical, storm is forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and will bring heavy rains up all of the east coast of the US from today (south) to weekend (northeast states). 50 to 100 mm of rain is possible with temps into the 12-15 C range. Very strong winds will impact parts of FL, GA and SC but the winds will likely moderate after Friday.
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Friday, 15 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and dry for most regions, except for western and northern coastal counties where 25 to 40 per cent of normal rainfall will occur, mostly on Sunday into early Monday (delayed from earlier timetable), but most of this rain will not reach east or south coasts and it could be almost dry throughout the period. Not a lot of sunshine expected despite high pressure being nearby, air masses will be quite cloudy but there could be a bit of sun at times. Temperatures will average around 3 C deg above normal values. Another change in guidance is that colder air in the week following (21 to 27 Dec) will perhaps be delayed in its strongest i pacts (see forecasts) although we've seen this sort of oscillation of forecasts before and it is not necessarily a permanent change, so I will word outlook in a conditional way.
FORECASTS
TODAY breezy, mild, partly cloudy to overcast, and highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with lows around 7 C, some drizzle or mist. Some western counties may not drop below 10 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, very mild, with highs 9 to 13 C. Some rain could move into parts of the west and north becoming more persistent by evening, and most of rain will likely break up before reaching eastern and southern counties; a few showers are possible but while 10-15 mm rain could fall in west (into Sunday now), only 2 to 5 mm amounts are likely further east.
SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, very mild and breezy, further outbreaks of rain in parts of west and north, lows 5 to 7 C, highs 9 to 13 C.
NEXT WEEK in the run up to the Christmas holiday, this bland and dry weather picture is now expected to change in two stages, the first one around Tuesday being rather subtle, with a drop to around 7-10 C and colder nights, possibly a recovery to near 12 C towards weekend of 23rd-24th, and an active pattern with fast changes possible around Christmas to New Years as colder air does break through. The changes indicated today have a feel of the old "chop and change" problem we have seen in past winter outlooks when an alteration in forecast does not become a permanent change and we get back towards the previous outlook at later stages. It's possible we will be going through that cycle again here, so while this is the latest guidance, I would not necessarily say it's bound to be an improved forecast compared to previous schedule. The volatility is being caused by upstream uncertainty associated with evolution of the east coast storm in the U.S., and slowly developing blocking patterns involving the massive high now to our south, but due to shift a little to the west early next week before possibly returning to its current position in a week. Earlier the guidance was based on that return being more of a shift further south to open the door for colder northerly flows, those may have to wait a day or two longer to get on stage so to speak.
My local weather was yet again overcast and relatively mild at around 2 C. The cloud ceiling was again low but above the lower surrounding hills, but not the higher ones, so about 1500 m asl (we are at 1050 m). Some snow was falling aloft and reaching tops of hills around us, but not reaching our elevation. A large, and almost a late-season tropical storm is forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and will bring heavy rains up all of the east coast of the US from today (south) to weekend (northeast states). 50 to 100 mm of rain is possible with temps into the 12-15 C range. Very strong winds will impact parts of FL, GA and SC to NJ coastal sections, but the winds will likely moderate after the storm passes NYC on Sunday night. A colder pattern is slowly developing for later Dec in northeast U.S. regions and there could be wintry precip around Christmas at least inland from the coast.
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Saturday, 16 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and dry for most regions, except for western and northern coastal counties where 25 to 40 per cent of normal rainfall will occur, mostly on Sunday into early Monday (delayed from earlier timetable), but most of this rain will not reach east or south coasts and it could be almost dry throughout the period. There is, however, a split in guidance concerning potential rainfalls near south coast on Tuesday; European weather models bring in some rain but North American models take that rain into southern England instead. Another split in guidance begins around the weekend of 23rd-24th, European guidance keeps cold air north of Ulster and so it would be mild and sometimes wet in Ireland during that time, North American guidance brings cold air in for about three days 23rd-25th. Not a lot of sunshine expected despite high pressure being nearby, air masses will be quite cloudy but there could be a bit of sun at times. Temperatures will average around 3 C deg above normal values.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, very mild, with highs 9 to 13 C. Some rain could move into parts of the west and north becoming more persistent by evening. Some sun at times in east, inland south.
TONIGHT will be cloudy, most of rain spreading into western counties will likely break up before reaching eastern and southern counties; lows will be very mild, 8 to 10 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, very mild and breezy, further outbreaks of rain heavier in parts of west and north, highs 9 to 13 C. Total rainfalls by late Sunday or 10-15 mm rain could fall in west, only 2 to 5 mm amounts are likely further east.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with occasional light rain, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 8 to 11 C.
TUESDAY clearing skies in north, a bit cooler, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C. Cloudy with risk of 10-15 rain near south coast (could be less if system tracks far enough south), temperatures steady near 10 C, colder by evening.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, breezy and mild, lows near 5 C and highs 8 to 12 C. Becoming quite windy, westerly 50-80 km/hr by Friday.
WEEKEND of 23-24 DEC could turn cold (3-5 C) and windy with wintry showers, but other guidance says it will stay mild with occasional rain and that colder air will stay confined to Scotland and North Sea regions instead. This difference also impacts the Christmas Day outlook, either cold air stays locked in for one more day, or the mild and damp pattern continues. Both sources of guidance seem more in agreement about an unsettled interval of Atlantic driven lows from about 26 Dec to New Years. So I hope we get some clarity (unity of guidance soon) as I am really "on the fence" about which scenario is more likely to verify -- and any chance of a white Christmas depends on which is correct.
My local weather produced a fourth nearly identical day of cloud and relatively mild temperatures around 2 C. A large, and almost a late-season tropical storm has now formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and will bring heavy rains up all of the east coast of the US from today (south) to Sunday-Monday (northeast states). 50 to 100 mm of rain is possible with temps into the 12-15 C range. Very strong winds will impact parts of FL, GA and SC to NJ coastal sections, gusts over 100 km/hr from southeast, but the winds will likely moderate after the storm passes NYC on Sunday night. Snow will only begin in a late stage of the event, around eastern Ontario and central Quebec. A colder pattern is slowly developing for later Dec in northeast U.S. regions and there could be wintry precip around Christmas at least inland from the coast.
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Sunday, 17 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and generally dry in eastern and some northern counties, occasional rain today to Tuesday in west and later in south, but not large amounts even there; temperatures will average about 3 or 4 deg above normal to Friday, after which it could turn colder. The difference in model guidance remains an issue.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter spells in south and east, occasional rain in west and north. Rather windy also in those counties, southwest 50-80 km/hr. Very mild, highs near 13 C.
TONIGHT rain will fragment and begin to push further southeast, lows near 10 C.
MONDAY cloudy with occasional light rain, turning a bit colder in parts of north, where highs near 9 C, but staying milder in south near 12 C.
TUESDAY rain at times near south coast, clearing further north, but cloud and showers may arrive from northwest later. Lows 3 to 7 C, highs 7 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY breezy, mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
THURSDAY becoming quite windy, mild, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY could turn considerably colder but there is still some guidance to suggest that it stays mild and the cold air is held back north of Ulster. The guidance was beginning to come closer together (on the colder solution) at times earlier in past 24h cycle but has now diverged again. If it turns cold, it could be cold enough for wintry showers with highs 3-5 C and lows near freezing. If not, it will stay in 6-9 C range with occasional rain.
CHRISTMAS DAY (Monday 25th) is dependent on same outcome, either it remains cold to near end of the day, or stays mild as per previous days.
From 26th DEC to 1st JAN 2024, guidance is suggesting a succession of windy frontal systems and very active weather bordering on stormy conditions at times, but with temperatures more definitely defined to be 7 to 10 C.
I am hoping the forecast split for middle of outcome period will be resolved soon, sometimes I indicate a preference (not always with success, occupational hazard) but in this case I am not too sure what hunches to play as it all depends on how the sturdy high fares in what is turning into a brawl over the Atlantic. If the high is pushed back any distance west, cold air can come rushing south (as per N American model guidance). If not, then it will keep directing milder air in.
My local weather on Saturday was a fifth consecutive day of featureless cloud, light wind and temperatures hovering between zero and 2 C. Strange to see such active weather in eastern North America when we are stuck under this anticyclonic "gloom" -- a very strong low has formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as expected, and will be tracking up the east coast all day and night to reach New Jersey mid-day Monday. Near record amounts of rain are expected. NYC has 155 years of weather records and their highest one-day December rainfall (78 mm, Dec 13, 1909) could be threatened on Monday. Winds of 120 km/hr are being predicted for coastal regions especially Long Island and southern New England. It will also be quite mild with this storm, not yet named but it was earlier investigated by the NHC research plane.
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Monday, 18 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and generally dry in eastern and some northern counties, occasional rain today and Tuesday in southwest and later in south, but not large amounts even there; temperatures will average about 3 or 4 deg above normal to Friday, after which it could turn colder. The difference in model guidance remains an issue but is not as great today. Our forecast steers a middle course based on a blend of different guidance.
FORECASTS
TODAY cloudy with occasional light rain, turning a bit colder in parts of north, where highs near 9 C, but staying milder in south near 12 C.
TONIGHT rain will redevelop near south coast, 5-10 mm amounts possible, lows 5 to 7 C; clearing across parts of north, colder, lows 1 to 4 C.
TUESDAY rain at times near south coast during part of morning , partly cloudy further north, but cloud and showers may arrive there from northwest later; highs 7 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY breezy, mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Occasional drizzle or light rain near northwest coast but generally dry.
THURSDAY becoming quite windy, mild, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.
FRIDAY windy and turning colder in stages, a few passing showers could contain hail, winds west to northwest 60 to 100 km/hr, temperatures mgradually falling in range of 7-9 C early to 3-5 C late.
WEEKEND of 23rd-24th is likely to be rather cold, with cloud across parts of south and west, sunny breaks north and east. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. It could be a bit colder if some guidance is correct. Some rain or possibly sleet is possible too.
CHRISTMAS DAY (Monday 25th) is dependent on actual duration of cold spell, but will likely be generally dry with rising temperatures, from a cold and possibly frosty start, towards 8 C by late afternoon into evening, as warm fronts approach. Then 26th (St Stephens Day) will likely be wet and windy with rain and highs around 10 C. This disturbance will take another day to pass (Wed 27th) before colder air returns for a day or two. An up and down temperature trend is foreseen for about a week spanning New Years.
My local weather on Sunday did not change a lot, it was rather foggy with drizzle and a high of about +1 C. A local drive revealed that our fog was shallow and visibility in alpine areas was a lot better, looking down on a carpet of fog in valleys below, but also another cloud layer above peaks at about 12,000 feet. Snow in alpine areas is about 10-15 cms, but only 3-5 cms in lower parts of region. Both of those are about one third of a normal mid-Dec amount. Meanwhile the east coast is being battered by the strong un-named tropical storm like feature, now located near coastal N Carolina. Rainfall records are widespread; 75-100 mm is fairly typical but one location in SC got flooded out by 400 mm of rain. This storm will take most of today to pass through the northeastern states, following which a brief cold spell with flurries will follow.
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Tuesday, 19 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and generally dry in eastern and some northern counties, now expected to persist into weekend of 23rd-24th; temperatures will average about 3 or 4 deg above normal, after which it could turn a bit colder.
FORECASTS
TODAY rain will soon pull away from south coast, partly cloudy further north, but cloud and showers may arrive there from northwest later; highs 7 to 10 C.
TONIGHT variable cloud, occasional drizzle or light rain will redevelop near south coast, lows 4 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY breezy, mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Occasional drizzle or light rain near northwest coast but generally dry.
THURSDAY becoming quite windy, mild, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY windy and continued mild, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.
SUNDAY (24 Dec) turning colder in stages, a few passing showers could contain hail, winds west to northwest 60 to 100 km/hr, temperatures gradually falling in range of 7-9 C early to 3-5 C late.
CHRISTMAS DAY (Monday 25th) will likely be dry with near average readings of lows near 3 to highs near 8 C. This could persist into the 26th (St Stephens Day) but 27th is likely to turn wet and windy with rain and highs around 10 C. This disturbance will take another day to pass (Thurs 28th) before colder air returns for a day or two. An up and down temperature trend is foreseen for about a week spanning New Years.
My local weather on Monday turned sunny as cloud and fog gradually dissipated during the morning, and it was a bit milder as a result, highs around 4 C. The east coast of the U.S. was hit hard by wind and rain, in particular, eastern New England, with gusts to 120 km/hr, and heavy rains, melting snow on hills in New Hampshire and Maine, washing out roads and stranding people behind washed out bridges and deep floodwaters in a few spots.
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on41 -
Wednesday, 20 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... It will stay quite mild, and fairly dry until late Sunday 24th, then turn seasonably cold for both Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day. Most of the relatively small amount of rain expected will occur on Saturday. It will amount to perhaps one quarter of a normal amount for a week in late December. It will be relatively bright, sunshine could exceed normal values by 25 to 50 per cent. The week starting 27th will be unsettled and near normal in temperatures, possibly turning colder around New Years.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy to windy at times, with patchy drizzle and a few brighter intervals, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Quite mild with highs 11 to 13 C.
TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with spotty light rain and strong westerly winds, mild, lows 7 to 10 C.
THURSDAY will be very windy and mild, with passing showers mostly confined to north and west. Highs 11 to 13 C, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue windy and mild, although some intervals will not be quite as windy, lows both days near 9 C and highs near 12 C. An interval of rain on Saturday could be rather heavy in some western counties briefly, but will tend to fragment to showers further east.
SUNDAY will be mild, with variable amounts of cloud and a moderate westerly wind 50-80 km/hr. A few isolated showers are possible but it will be generally dry, lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 12 C. Turning a bit colder late in the day. The night of Christmas Eve will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, a fresh west to northwest wind, and a few showers possible in north and west, lows 3 to 6 C.
CHRISTMAS DAY will be partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny spells, a few passing showers over north and west could contain hail, but these will be rather brief and could just produce trace amounts. To see snow on Christmas Day, you might succeed in a few higher locations of west or north, but it would be just a light flurry. Most places will have a dry day and morning lows 3 to 6 C, afternoon highs 7 to 9 C. Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr but could be as strong as 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and north Connacht.
ST STEPHEN's DAY will likely start out frosty with lows -2 to +2 C. Increasing cloud during the day will lead to rain by afternoon or evening, highs near 10 C. Winds light at first, becoming southeast to south 40-60 km/hr.
This rain will continue off and on through Wed 27th and Thurs 28th, with temperatures not far from 10 C, and moderate southwesterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr at times. It may begin to turn a bit colder after that.
My local weather on Tuesday was dull and damp after a fall of heavy wet snow during the early morning (5 cms), that began to turn to slush as a cold rain fell in the afternoon (at 2 C). Foggy now as most of this weak disturbance has moved past.
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Thursday, 21 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... It will stay quite mild, and fairly dry until late Sunday 24th, then turn seasonably cold for both Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day. Most of the relatively small amount of rain expected will occur on Saturday. It will amount to perhaps one quarter of a normal amount for a week in late December. It will be relatively bright, sunshine could exceed normal values by 25 to 50 per cent. The week starting 27th will be unsettled and near normal in temperatures, possibly turning colder around New Years.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be very windy and mild, with passing showers mostly confined to north and west. Highs 11 to 13 C, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr. Some wave overtopping on west coast, local gusts to 120 km/hr possible in exposed locations.
TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with spotty light rain and strong westerly winds, mild, lows 7 to 10 C.
FRIDAY breezy to windy and mild, spotty drizzle or light rain near west coast, lows near 7 to 9 C and highs 10 to 12 C.
SATURDAY will continue windy and mild, lows 7 to 9 C and highs near 12 C. An interval of rain could be rather heavy in some western counties briefly, but will tend to fragment to showers further east.
SUNDAY will be mild, with variable amounts of cloud and a moderate westerly wind 50-80 km/hr. A few isolated showers are possible but it will be generally dry, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Turning a bit colder late in the day. The night of Christmas Eve will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, a fresh west to northwest wind at 40-70 km/hr, and a few blustery showers possible in north and west, lows 3 to 6 C for Christmas morning.
CHRISTMAS DAY will be partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny spells, a few passing showers over north and west could contain hail, but these will be rather brief and could just produce trace amounts. To see snow on Christmas Day, you might succeed in a few higher locations of west or north, but it would be just a light flurry. Most places will have a dry day and morning lows 3 to 6 C, afternoon highs 7 to 9 C. Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr but could be as strong as 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and north Connacht.
ST STEPHEN's DAY will likely start out frosty in some eastern inland counties, with lows -2 to +2 C. Lows 3 to 5 C near west coast where cloud will arrive before morning, followed by rain. Increasing cloud during the day further east will lead to rain by afternoon or evening, with highs near 10 C. Winds light at first, becoming southeast to south 40-60 km/hr.
This rain will continue off and on through Wed 27th and Thurs 28th, with temperatures not far from 10 C, and moderate southwesterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr at times. Fast-moving frontal systems will pass about once every 36 hours or so, south coast could become very windy at times (timing is unreliable this far out but current maps suggest late 27th into early 28th, a strong low could move through south-central Ireland ... there may be potential for mixed wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north with this, but details won't be clear for a few days yet. It may begin to turn a bit colder in all regions after that in an easterly flow between high pressure located north of Ulster, and low pressure now further south approaching western France. This can be a wintry set-up if cold enough, but depth of cold air looks marginal, better for sleety cold rain and snow on high slopes perhaps. Around New Years some areas could clear with frosts at night.
My local weather on Wednesday was dull and damp again, with spotty drizzle and highs near 3 C; earlier snow has partly melted and turned to a slushy mess where not cleared, and cleared surfaces are a little slippery, soft ice with a wet coating. Roads are mostly okay after combined effects of treatment and heavy holiday traffic. Mountain passes are probably very treacherous but we have no plans to leave town this holiday anyway. During the afternoon we could see fog rolling upslope towards us from a valley that cuts through the town, but it just stayed in that valley and we could see it grind to a halt against hills further west; odd to live in a place where sometimes clouds are both above and below your elevation.
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Friday, 22 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... It will stay quite mild, and fairly dry until late Sunday 24th, then turn seasonably colder for both Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day. Most of the relatively small amount of rain expected will occur on Saturday, but more significant amounts will fall around 27 and 28 Dec. By then, total rainfall will amount to perhaps a near-normal amount for a week in late December. It will be relatively bright, sunshine could exceed normal values by 25 to 50 per cent. The week starting 29th will be colder at first, possibly turning milder after New Years.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy to windy and mild, spotty drizzle or light rain near west coast, lows near 7 to 9 C and highs 10 to 12 C. Winds will slowly ease into a more moderate range of 50-70 km/hr.
TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with spotty light rain and westerly breezes 40-60 km/hr, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY will continue windy and mild, lows 7 to 9 C and highs near 12 C. An interval of rain could be rather heavy in some western counties briefly, but will tend to fragment to showers further east. Cloudy with a few breaks in south and east.
SUNDAY (24 Dec) will be mild, with variable amounts of cloud and a moderate westerly wind 50-80 km/hr. A few isolated showers are possible and more widespread rain may move in by afternoon, as a cold front passes. Lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Turning a bit colder late in the day. The night of Christmas Eve will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, a fresh west to northwest wind at 40-70 km/hr, and a few blustery showers possible in north and west, lows 3 to 6 C for Christmas morning.
CHRISTMAS DAY will be partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny spells, a few passing showers over north and west could contain hail, but these will be rather brief and could just produce trace amounts further east (3-5 mm west). To see snow on Christmas Day, you might succeed in a few higher locations of west or north, but it would be just a light flurry and more likely hail than snow. Morning lows 3 to 6 C, afternoon highs 7 to 9 C. Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr but could be as strong as 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and north Connacht.
ST STEPHEN's DAY will likely start out frosty in some eastern inland counties, with lows -2 to +2 C. Lows 3 to 5 C near west coast where cloud will arrive before morning, followed by rain. Increasing cloud during the day further east will lead to rain by afternoon or evening, with highs near 10 C. Winds light at first, becoming southeast to south 40-60 km/hr.
This rain will continue off and on through Wed 27th and Thurs 28th, with temperatures not far from 10 C, and moderate southwesterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr at times, at least in the south, which could become very windy at times (timing is unreliable this far out but latest maps now suggest late 28th into early 29th, a strong low could move through south-central Ireland ... there may be potential for mixed wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north with this, but details won't be clear for a few days yet. It may begin to turn a bit colder in all regions after that in a north-easterly flow between high pressure located northwest of Ulster, and low pressure now further south approaching southern Britain into the North Sea. This can be a wintry set-up if cold enough, but depth of cold air still looks marginal, better for sleety cold rain with sleet, snow on higher terrain perhaps. Around New Years some areas could clear with frosts at night. Beyond that, some indications of a return to milder and windy weather in first week to ten days of 2024.
My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and quite mild, near 4 C, with spotty light rain.
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Saturday, 23 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... It will stay quite mild, and dry in east until Sunday 24th, then turn seasonably colder for both Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day. Most of the relatively small amount of rain expected before 27th will occur tonight, and on Christmas eve, but more significant amounts will fall around 27 and 28 Dec. By then, total rainfall will amount to perhaps a near-normal amount for a week in late December. It will be relatively bright, sunshine at least near normal values. The week starting 30th will be colder at first, possibly turning milder in stages after New Years.
FORECASTS
SATURDAY will continue windy and mild, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs near 12 C. An interval of rain by afternoon into evening could be rather heavy in some western counties briefly, but will tend to fragment to showers further east. Cloudy with a few breaks in south and east.
TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast and mild with rain, heavy at times in western counties (5-10 mm), lows 7 to 10 C, southwesterly breezes 40-60 km/hr.
SUNDAY (24 Dec) will be mild, with variable amounts of cloud and a moderate westerly wind 50-80 km/hr. A few isolated showers are possible and more widespread rain may move in by afternoon, as a cold front passes. Lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Turning a bit colder late in the day. The night of Christmas Eve will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, a fresh west to northwest wind at 40-70 km/hr, and a few blustery showers possible in north and west, lows 3 to 6 C for Christmas morning.
CHRISTMAS DAY will be partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny spells, a few passing showers over north and west could contain hail, but these will be rather brief and could just produce trace amounts further east (3-5 mm west). To see snow on Christmas Day, you might succeed in a few higher locations of west or north, but it would be just a light flurry and more likely hail than snow. Morning lows 3 to 6 C, afternoon highs 7 to 9 C. Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr but could be as strong as 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and north Connacht.
ST STEPHEN's DAY will likely start out frosty in some eastern inland counties, with lows -2 to +2 C. Lows 3 to 5 C near west coast where cloud will arrive before morning, followed by rain. Increasing cloud during the day further east will lead to rain by afternoon or evening, with highs 8 to 10 C. Winds light at first, becoming southeast to south 40-60 km/hr.
This rain will continue off and on through Wed 27th and Thurs 28th, with temperatures not far from 10 C, and moderate southwesterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr at times, at least in the south, which could become very windy at times -- timing is unreliable this far out but latest maps now suggest around late 27th to early 29th, a strong low could move through south-central Ireland or even south of Ireland ... there may be potential for mixed wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north with this, but details won't be clear for a few days yet. It may begin to turn a bit colder in all regions after that in a north-easterly flow between high pressure located northwest of Ulster, and low pressure now further south approaching southern Britain into the North Sea. This can be a wintry set-up if cold enough, but depth of cold air still looks marginal, better for sleety cold rain with sleet, snow on higher terrain perhaps. Around New Years some areas could clear with frosts at night. Beyond that, some indications of a return to milder and windy weather in first week to ten days of 2024.
My local weather on Friday was cloudy and mild, near 4 C, with spotty light rain turning to wet snow after sunset, only a slight coating developed. The pattern across North America is fairly bland, with heavy rain in parts of California the only really active weather. A gradual cooling trend is indicated later in the holiday week and early January. The first significant snow for east coast cities could arrive around 4-6 January but it's not a very definite indication yet.
As regular readers could be away from the internet for a few days, I'll take the opportunity to wish everyone a merry Christmas and happy new year, let's hope for better times and whatever weather you prefer (if it's this, okay, where I am, it's generally unpopular weather with just about everyone to see rain and slush at a ski resort, but it is easier to afford possibly). I will likely keep up forecasts through the holiday period as we aren't planning any travel until around February this winter.
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Sunday, 24 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... It will stay mild, and showery today, then turn seasonably colder for both Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day with a few dry intervals, followed by several wet days; total rainfall by New Years Eve will amount to perhaps a near-normal amount for a week in late December. It will be relatively bright, sunshine at least near normal values. The week starting 31st will be colder at first, possibly turning milder in stages after New Years.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mild, with variable amounts of cloud and a moderate westerly wind 50-80 km/hr. A few showers at first, and more widespread rain will move in by afternoon, as a cold front passes (afternoon west, evening east), highs 11 to 14 C. Turning a bit colder late in the day.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, a fresh west to northwest wind at 40-70 km/hr, and a few blustery showers possible in north and west, lows 4 to 7 C for Christmas morning.
CHRISTMAS DAY will be partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny spells, a few passing showers over north and west could contain hail, but these will be rather brief and could just produce trace amounts further east (3-5 mm west), snow on a few mountain summits, afternoon highs will be in a range of 7 (n.w.) to 10 (s.e.). Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr but could be as strong as 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and north Connacht.
ST STEPHEN's DAY will likely start out frosty in some eastern inland counties, with lows -2 to +2 C. Lows 3 to 5 C near west coast where cloud will arrive before morning, followed by rain. Increasing cloud during the day further east will lead to rain by afternoon or evening, with highs 8 to 10 C. Winds light at first, becoming southeast to south 40-60 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY (27 Dec) will be wet and windy with lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds could become quite strong from southwest near south coast, if not other regions, into a range of 70 to 110 km/hr. About 10-20 mm of rain likely.
T URSDAY will be breezy to windy and colder with further rain possibly becoming sleety in central to northern counties, lows 2 to 5 C and highs around 5 to 7 C.
FRIDAY will see another disturbance, this time closer to south coast, and a cold rain or mixed wintry precipitation is possible. I will leave details for a closer time frame, for now, it looks close to 4 C during this cold wet event.
The weekend of 30th and 31st December will probably see clearing skies and cold temperatures, frosty at night, lows -2 to +2 C and highs around 4 to 7 C. Similar conditions could persist into New Year's Day.
Beyond New Years Eve, guidance begins to diverge; some sources depict further cold, dry weather wit a slow warming trend; other guidance shows a rapid return to windy, wet and mild conditions.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny and cold, near -2 C. Clear and -7 C at 11 p.m. local time.
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Monday, 25 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... It will turn somehat colder in stages both Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day with showers today, a few dry intervals on Tuesday, followed by several wet days; total rainfall by New Years Eve will amount to perhaps a near-normal amount for a week in late December. It will be relatively bright, sunshine at least near normal values. The week starting 1st of January will be turning milder in stages and could become windy and wet at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) will become partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny spells, morning rain for southern counties, and a few passing showers over north and west that could contain hail, but these will be rather brief and could just produce trace amounts further east (3-5 mm west), snow only possible on a few mountain summits. Afternoon highs will be in a range of 7 (n.w.) to 10 (s.e.). Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr but could be as strong as 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and north Connacht.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, windy at first, a few showers fading away after late evening. Lows 3 to 5 C west, -2 to +2 elsewhere.
ST STEPHEN's DAY (TUESDAY) will likely start out frosty in some eastern inland counties, with lows -2 to +2 C. Lows 3 to 5 C near west coast where cloud will arrive before morning, followed by rain. Increasing cloud during the day further east will lead to rain by afternoon or evening, with highs 8 to 10 C. Winds light at first, becoming southeast to south 40-60 km/hr. Overnight, very windy by early morning, southerly 70 to 100 km/hr, rain briefly heavy.
WEDNESDAY (27 Dec) will be wet and windy with lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds could become quite strong from southwest near south coast, and later east coast, into a range of 70 to 110 km/hr. About 10-20 mm of rain likely. Colder by afternoon and evening. Winds will continue strong southwest in most regions as it turns quite cold wit potential for wintry showers on hills.
THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and colder with further rain possibly becoming sleety in central to northern counties, lows 2 to 5 C and highs around 5 to 7 C. Cold southwest to west winds will be around 60-80 km/hr.
FRIDAY will see another disturbance, this time closer to south coast, and a cold rain or mixed wintry precipitation is possible. I will continue to leave details for a closer time frame, for now, close to 4 or 5 C during this cold wet event.
The weekend of 30th and 31st December will probably see clearing skies and cold temperatures, frosty at night, lows -2 to +2 C and highs around 4 to 7 C. It now looks like a fairly rapid change in early January back to windy, wet and mild conditions.
My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold, near -3 C. Cloudy and -8 C at 11 p.m. local time. A thin snow cover persists locally but it will be a green Christmas lower down as the snow line is currently just below our elevation at about 800 metres above sea level.
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Tuesday, 26 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: temperatures near normal but becoming rather cold at times later in the week, often windy and wet.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start with some sunny intervals, cooler than recent days, then increasing cloud. Light winds until afternoon and evening when a strong southeast 50-80 km/hr wind will arise, with rain.
TONIGHT windy with rain, winds southeast to south 50-80 km/hr, higher gusts possible near south coast. Lows 4 to 7 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with rain tapering to showers mid-day, winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr. Highs near 10 C. Turning quite cold by afternoon especially in western counties. By Wednesday night, showers could become wintry in places, and temperatures will be in the 4-6 C range or lower.
THURSDAY windy and cold with passing showers, some wintry, and some with hail or thunder. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 3 C and highs near 6 C.
FRIDAY will also be windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, winds westerly 40-70 km/hr, lows near 2 C and highs 5 to 7 C.
SATURDAY frosty and clear at first, then cloudy with sleet turning to rain overnight. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C (rising to around 10 C evening or overnight).
SUNDAY rain ending, turning a bit colder as it clears for New Years Eve, morning highs about 7 C, readings near 1 or 2 C by evening and dropping a bit lower by New Years Day early morning.
MONDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold with a risk of mixed wintry showers. Lows near -2 C and highs could be held down to 3-5 C in central and northern regions, south might see some moderation to 8 C.
The following week will see the storm track trying to lift back north to allow milder sectors to return with passage of lows, but it's not too clear yet whether this will work out or whether colder air will manage to dominate. Eventually colder air is expected to push back in from the north (if it in fact needs to return) and a rather cold, dry spell could follow.
My weather on Christmas Day was cloudy and cold, with temperatures steady around -2 C.
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Wednesday, 27 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: temperatures near normal or slightly below, and becoming rather cold at times later in the week, often windy and wet. Some disruptions from strong winds, and also wintry showers in some parts of north.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy with rain tapering to squally showers mid-day, some with hail and thunder; winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr. Highs near 10 C but turning quite cold by afternoon especially in western counties. Risk of waves overtopping seawalls in exposed coastal locations.
TONIGHT showers could become wintry in places, and temperatures will be in the 4-6 C range or lower. Winds southwest 70-110 km/hr. Dangerous waves over-topping seawalls in exposed coastal locations. This is associated with storm Gerrit, and conditions appear likely to be worst during the late evening or around midnight.
THURSDAY windy and cold with passing showers, some wintry, and some with hail or thunder. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 3 C and highs near 6 C.
FRIDAY will also be windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, winds westerly 40-70 km/hr with higher gusts in Atlantic coastal counties, lows near 2 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds easing briefly towards evening, partial clearing, very cold.
SATURDAY frosty and clear around Friday evening and midnight before clouding over during early morning for northeast, then cloudy with sleet turning to rain during the day, becoming very windy in south, risk of damaging gusts near 120 km/hr will need a close watch (note confidence of storm details moderate as it will only be forming in the western Atlantic tomorrow into early Friday). Lows near -2 C (early, rising to 5 C) and highs near 7 C (to around 10 C evening or overnight in south).
SUNDAY strong winds easing slightly, and rain ending, turning a bit colder again as it clears for New Years Eve, morning highs about 7 C, readings near 1 to 3 C by evening and dropping a bit lower by New Years Day early morning, wintry showers possible in blustery northwest winds.
MONDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold with a risk of mixed wintry showers. Lows near -2 C and highs could be held down to 3-5 C in central and northern regions, south might see some moderation to 8 C.
Around TUESDAY 2nd January, another fairly significant Atlantic storm could follow, and after it passes, colder regime could start to develop, lasting some time (current model runs depict cold air in place for at least a week, but confidence on this is in the low to moderate range). An east to northeast flow is being suggested, with reinforcing shots of colder air deeper into January.
My weather on Tuesday (as in U.K. it is known as Boxing Day here) was overcast with 2-3 cm of fresh snow that fell during previous night, not overly cold at +1 C.
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Thursday, 28 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: temperatures near normal or slightly below, and becoming rather cold at times later in the week, often windy and wet. Some disruptions from strong winds, and also wintry showers in some parts of north. Risk of snowfalls especially inland over somewhat higher terrain, 1st-2nd January.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy and cold with passing showers, some wintry, and some with hail or thunder. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr; highs near 6 C.
TONIGHT will be breezy to windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, winds westerly 40-60 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C.
FRIDAY will also be windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, winds westerly 40-70 km/hr with higher gusts in Atlantic coastal counties, and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds easing briefly towards evening, partial clearing, very cold.
SATURDAY frosty and clear around Friday evening and midnight before clouding over during early morning for east, northeast, then cloudy with sleet turning to rain during the day, becoming very windy in south and west with risk of damaging gusts near 110 km/hr by evening. Lows near -2 C (early, rising to 5 C) and highs near 7 C (to around 10 C evening or overnight in south).
SUNDAY strong winds gradually easing after a very windy overnight period with squally showers, snow on northern hills, as it turns colder again, some clearing for New Years Eve (by midnight), morning highs Sunday about 7 C, temperatures 5-8 C daytime then readings near 1 to 3 C by evening and dropping a bit lower by New Years Day early morning.
MONDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold with a risk of mixed wintry showers. Lows near -2 C and highs could be held down to 3-5 C in central and northern regions, south might see some moderation to 8 C.
By TUESDAY a complex low pressure area moving northeast near southeastern counties of Ireland could bring a wintry mix of coastal cold rainfalls, inland sleet and snow. In fact, some guidance starts this event late Monday. Almost all guidance currently shows some potential for lying snow in parts of south-central Ireland and midlands into north Leinster, and higher parts of south Leinster. Temperatures could be only 1 to 3 C during this event, a bit higher in coastal north and west away from falling snow, and near southeast coast getting into somewhat milder air near the centre, but chilly northeast winds could be involved. This potential as well as the earlier Saturday night storm are both being watched closely as we try to assess final outcomes.
Colder air would likely stick around for a few days especially if snow does fall on 1st and/or 2nd of January. A few episodes of milder air trying to work north into coastal counties would likely follow but central and northern counties could stay quite cold for large portions of early to mid-January.
My weather on Wednesday featured some high cloud layers with a few brighter intervals but reasonably mild at about 2-3 C. Another significant rainfall event is ongoing in the eastern states. December looks likely to finish around second warmest (to 2015) in many locations in eastern U.S. and Canada. It has been closer to average in the west, although slightly above normal.
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Friday, 29 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: temperatures near normal or slightly below, frequent rain, sleet or wet snow mixing in at times on somewhat higher terrain.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, spme heavy and thundery in Ulster and Connacht, winds west-northwesterly 40-70 km/hr with higher gusts in Atlantic coastal counties, and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds easing briefly towards evening, partial clearing, very cold. Icy stretches developing on some higher roadways this evening in north, west, and central counties.
TONIGHT will be clear at first with frosts before midnight, clouding over later with sleet developing inland ahead of rain, lows -2 to +2 C.
SATURDAY cloudy with sleet turning to rain during the day, becoming very windy in south and west with risk of damaging gusts near 110 km/hr by afternoon or evening, highs near 7 C (to around 10 C evening or overnight in south). Windy in southern counties overnight as low tracks across north-central counties which could see intervals of sleet redeveloping.
SUNDAY strong winds gradually easing after a very windy overnight period with squally showers, snow on northern hills, as it turns colder again, some clearing for New Years Eve (by midnight), morning highs Sunday about 3 C north, 7 C south, temperatures 5-8 C daytime then readings near 1 to 3 C by evening and dropping a bit lower by New Years Day early morning.
MONDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold with a risk of mixed wintry showers. Lows near -2 C and highs could be held down to 3-5 C in central and northern regions, south might see some moderation to 8 C.
By TUESDAY another interval of sleety mixed precipitation is possible but recent guidance has downgraded winter storm potential, with a less intense low breaking up into a chain of weak energy centres, likely result is partly cloudy to overcast skies and any showers wintry over higher terrain. Lows near 2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
WEDNESDAY and rest of week unsettled with further outbreaks of sleet or rain, lows -1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
Some guidance shows an end to this unsettled spell around weekend of 6-7 January as storm track drops south allowing an arctic high to exert control from a source near Iceland. If this happens, it could become as cold as we saw in early December, but snow potential does not look overly great as flow would be northerly without any significant easterly component. This would favour snow in Ulster and north Connacht rather than Leinster.
My weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to overcast, after another slight snowfall event in the early morning hours, and it was around 2 or 3 C.
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Saturday, 30 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures will average near normal or a bit below, turning colder in the week following 6 January. Rainfall will be near average and will tend to mix with sleet on higher terrain at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY some blustery showers will clear, with a few sunny intervals around late morning to early afternoon, but more blustery showers will develop, and it will stay quite windy except in some parts of the north. For most locations, southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, with some higher gusts in squally showers. Highs 7 to 9 C. Some of the squally showers could produce hail and thunder.
TONIGHT windy with occasional rain or showers, for southern and central counties, lows near 5 C, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Further north, close to the track of low pressure, winds could drop off at times and then pick up again once the low has passed.
SUNDAY windy and cold with passing showers, some wintry, as it turns a bit colder, winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr creating a significant wind chill in daytime highs of 5 to 8 C. Less windy by late afternoon and evening, clearing at times, with frost expected overnight on New Year's morning, lows -2 to +2 C.
MONDAY (New Year's Day) will bring increasing cloud from southwest to northeast during the day, cold to start, a bit milder by afternoon. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C. Some rain or sleet by evening, moving in from the south.
TUESDAY to FRIDAY a number of weak disturbances will pass and temperatures will be a bit colder than in the past week so not all of their moisture will fall as rain, a bit of sleet or wet snow is possible each day, but mostly well inland and on higher terrain. Lows will be in the range of 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C at low elevations, 4 to 7 on hills and in some parts of the inland north.
By about SATURDAY 6 JANUARY, a colder regime is expected to develop. High pressure forming over the North Atlantic and Iceland will bring in a north to northeast flow of arctic air. It may take a few days to get through transitional phases as the core of this colder air moves gradually southwest from Scandinavia towards Britain and perhaps eventually into Ireland. For now we'll say a moderate temperature decrease to highs in the 3 to 6 C range and frosts at night but there is potential in this setup for even colder readings, and if so, it could snow in some onshore flows in the north and possibly later in eastern counties, so despite the very mild December it's looking like some actual winter may visit in January.
My local weather on Friday was foggy, in fact very thick fog covered the town until mid-afternoon when it lifted to more of a mist; we found by driving a few miles down into the valley that we were in a cloud base here, that was eventually a few hundred feet above us, and visibility was good once we broke through the ceiling. It has been very mild all over western Canada with records set in some places but we're only seeing highs of about 3-4 C here due to the fog and snow cover (which is very thin).
Happy new year to all, if you're off for a few days.
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Sunday, 31 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures will average near normal or a bit below, turning colder in the week following 6 January. Rainfall will be near average and will tend to mix with sleet on higher terrain at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY windy and cold with passing showers, some wintry, in particular over north central counties, as it turns a bit colder, winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr creating a significant wind chill in daytime highs of 5 to 8 C. Less windy by late afternoon and evening, clearing at times, with frost expected overnight on New Year's morning, lows -2 to +2 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy with clear intervals, cold, scattered frosts, lows -2 to +3 C.
MONDAY (New Year's Day) will bring increasing cloud from southwest to northeast during the day, cold to start, a bit milder by afternoon. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C. Some rain or sleet by evening, moving in from the south.
TUESDAY to FRIDAY a number of weak disturbances will pass and temperatures will be around 7 to 9 C, occasional rain, and rain, a bit of sleet or wet snow is possible each day, but mostly well inland and on higher terrain in northern counties. Lows will be in the range of 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C at low elevations, 4 to 7 on hills and in some parts of the inland north.
By about SATURDAY 6 JANUARY, a colder regime is expected to develop. High pressure forming over the North Atlantic and Iceland will bring in a north to northeast flow of arctic air. It remains to be seen how long or intense this colder spell could turn out to be.
My local weather on Saturday was misty, with highs near 3 C.
<<< happy new year >>>
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Monday, 1 January, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures will average near normal or a bit below, turning colder in the week following 6 January. Rainfall will be near average and will tend to mix with sleet on higher terrain at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY (New Year's Day) will start out with a welcome but brief break from gusty winds and showers, except in parts of Ulster still seeing a bit of activity from outer edges of the departing disturbance. A few sunny intervals until early afternoon, and relatively light winds, highs reaching about 7 or 8 C. Cloud will rapidly increase from southwest to northeast by late afternoon. Rain will follow in parts of the southwest.
TONIGHT intervals of rain, becoming quite windy across the south, 10-15 mm of rain likely, foggy on higher ground, lows 3 to 6 C.
TUESDAY a second part of the overnight disturbance will arrive during the morning and drop a bit more rain; further north it could be close to a sleety mixture that could drop some wet snow on hilltops. Once all that moves past towards the east by afternoon, partly cloudy to overcast with moderate to strong westerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs will range from 9 or 10 C near south coast, to 7 or 8 C central, and 5 or 6 C north.
WEDNESDAY will continue breezy to windy and may turn colder with mixed wintry showers in a blustery westerly wind 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows around 4 C and highs around 7 or 8 C.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, cold with lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.
FRIDAY winds will turn more northerly, showers could become wintry as temperatures remain steady around 5 C.
By WEEKEND of 6-7 JANUARY, high pressure will drift over Ireland from the northwest, and it will be quite cold with frosts at night, daytime highs only around 5 to 7 C. Saturday could bring variable cloud and a few wintry showers in moderate east to northeast winds, as the high takes a slow course towards Ulster by Saturday evening. Sunday is likely to be dry with some wintry sunshine. This high could remain close to Ireland for a few more days, and Monday 8th could be its coldest day (lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C), but it may not stay clear into the mid-week period, and under Atlantic cloud it could turn a bit milder in western counties. Eventually there could be some battles between milder air masses and renewed surges of colder air from north or east. A range of outcomes is suggested by various sources and experienced forecasters (on various forums seem to have many different opinions about what lies ahead, so I don't have a lot of confidence in any particular outcome for the "main portion of winter" namely later January into February and early March. I suspect there will be intervals of cold, intervals of mild, and generally speaking less precipitation than was the case from October to December; let's hope for some reduction in moisture as ground is quite saturated now and it would be good to see a couple of relatively dry months.
My local weather on Sunday was overcast with some light snow at times, no real accumulation, and temperatures around +1 C. It is still 2023 as I type this here, so I hope you had a great New Years celebration and will enjoy this brief break from the unsettled weather, before getting back into a bit more of it soon enough.
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Tuesday, 2 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures near normal to about Thursday then 2-4 deg below normal, rainfall 25-50 per cent above normal in south, to 50 per cent below normal in north. Some mixed wintry showers at times after Thursday.
FORECASTS
TODAY intervals of heavy rain this morning in Munster and south Leinster, 15-25 mm potential, foggy with drizzle or showers further north; all regions becoming partly cloudy to overcast with moderate westerly winds by afternoon. Highs 8 to 11 C south and 5 to 8 C north.
TONIGHT foggy or misty with moderate westerly winds near coasts, occasional rain, lows 3 to 5 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, moderate blustery westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, passing showers, highs 7 to 9 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, isolated thunderstorms inland central and west, lows 3 to 5 C and highs 7 to 9 C.
FRIDAY turning a bit colder, mixed wintry showers, light northerly winds, lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY cloudy with sunny intervals, cold, a few wintry showers mainly near north and east coasts, lows 1 to 3 C, highs 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY sunny intervals, cold, frosty nights, lows around -4 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
The duration of the dry, cold spell depends on how long a high pressure area stays close to Ireland; different guidance shows a variety of evolutions through next week, ranging from a return to westerly flow and milder, to a prolongation of cold and a weak easterly flow (in that case, the high does not sink further south but drifts a bit further west). It looks as though a strong blocking pattern is about to develop over the northern Atlantic regions including Greenland. This may lead to wintry patterns in both western Europe and the eastern portions of North America.
My local weather on New Years Day was overcast with temperatures steady around zero to +1 C; a low cloud ceiling was just a few hundred feet above us so there was no view of surrounding hills, a rather bleak way to start a new year.
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Wednesday, 3 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures near normal to about Thursday then 2-4 deg below normal, rainfall near normal in south, to 50 per cent below normal in north. Some mixed wintry showers at times after Thursday. Generally dry during colder spell.
FORECASTS
TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, intervals with moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr by afternoon, passing showers, a few with hail and thunder, highs 7 to 9 C.
TONIGHT patchy fog or mist with moderate westerly winds near coasts, occasional showers, lows 3 to 5 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, showers, isolated thunderstorms inland central and west, and highs 7 to 9 C.
FRIDAY turning a bit colder, mixed wintry showers, although fairly dry in general, a few sunny intervals, and light northerly winds, lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy with sunny intervals, cold, a few wintry showers mainly near north and east coasts, lows -1 to +2 C, highs 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY sunny intervals, cold, frosty nights, lows around -4 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
At this point it looks like the cold high will stick around for most of the week. If it stays a bit to the north, a cold east to southeast flow will prevent any milder air from returning from the Atlantic, but if it sinks a bit further south or southwest, then milder and cloudy flows can reach at least some coastal areas in the west and north. Overall, would expect a moderate but not severe level of wintry chill to develop, sharp frosts in most areas, some persistent low cloud or fog in valleys inland, sunny spells more frequent near coasts, and isolated wintry showers but wind gradients look too weak for those to develop very far beyond a few sporadic showers of sleety graupel.
My local weather on Tuesday was overcast but a bit milder, highs near 4 C. The east coast of the U.S. are getting ready for the first significant snowfall of the winter on the weekend; 10 to 20 cm amounts are being discussed (20 to 40 cm further inland).
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Thursday, 4 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures 2-4 deg below normal, after slight amounts of rainfall today, mostly dry. Sunshine could be as much as 50 per cent above average.
FORECASTS
TODAY variable cloud, showers, isolated thunderstorms inland central and west, and highs 7 to 9 C. Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr.
TONIGHT patchy fog or mist with moderate northwesterly winds near coasts, occasional showers, lows 1 to 4 C. Patchy ground frost.
FRIDAY turning a bit colder, mixed wintry showers, although fairly dry in general, a few sunny intervals, and light northerly winds, lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy with sunny intervals, cold, a few wintry showers mainly near north and east coasts, lows -1 to +2 C, highs 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY sunny intervals, cold, frosty nights, lows around -4 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C. There could be persistent fog or low cloud in a few lower-lying parts of the inland counties.
The cold high will stick around for most of the week, keeping in place a cold east to southeast flow. Overall, would expect a moderate but not severe level of wintry chill to develop, sharp frosts in most areas, some persistent low cloud or fog in valleys inland, sunny spells more frequent near coasts, and isolated wintry showers most likely near south and east coasts. Temperatures will remain in a similar range to Sunday-Monday above.
My local weather on Wednesday gave us a light snowfall of about 2 c followed by cloud and a high near 1 C. The east coast of the U.S. are getting ready for the first significant snowfall of the winter on the weekend; 10 to 30 cm amounts are being discussed.
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Friday, 5 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures 2-4 deg below normal, mostly dry. Sunshine could be as much as 50 per cent above average. Little change is foreseen for the second week of the outlook period.
FORECASTS
TODAY turning a bit colder, mixed wintry showers near hills in west, north, although fairly dry in general, a few sunny intervals although sunny skies frequent in some parts of east and central, southern counties, and light northerly winds, and highs 5 to 8 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, cold, local frost. Lows -3 to +2 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy with sunny intervals, cold, a few wintry showers possible mainly near north and east coasts, highs 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY sunny intervals, cold, frosty nights, lows around -4 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C. There could be persistent fog or low cloud in a few lower-lying parts of the inland counties.
The cold high will stick around for most of the week, keeping in place a cold east to southeast flow. Overall, would expect a moderate but not severe level of wintry chill to develop, sharp frosts in most areas, some persistent low cloud or fog in valleys inland, sunny spells more frequent near coasts, and isolated wintry showers most likely near south and east coasts. Temperatures will remain in a similar range to Sunday-Monday above. It could warm slightly around next weekend (13-14 Jan) then a fresh cold high could bring another week similar to coming week; some guidance says next appearance of milder air and any rain can be expected around 19-20 January.
My local weather on Thursday started off with a fresh 5 c fall of snow, after which it stayed cloudy with spits of drizzle and highs near +1 C.
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Saturday, 6 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Temperatures 3-5 deg below normal, mostly dry. Sunshine could be as much as 50 per cent above average. Little change is foreseen for the second week of the outlook period. An interval of severe cold and locally heavy snow is possible around ten days to two weeks from now, in a strong northerly flow replacing the current modified cold and settled regime. Confidence on this is not especially high yet, but it fits a general indication that a blocking episode already developing could intensify.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, a few wintry showers over northern counties, not very prolonged or heavy, could leave a dusting of snow on hills in Connacht and Ulster, highs 4 to 7 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, cold, local frost. Lows -5 to -1 C. Fog likely in lower lying inland districts.
SUNDAY and MONDAY sunny intervals, cold, frosty nights, lows around -5 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C. There could be persistent fog or low cloud in a few lower-lying parts of the inland counties. Winds generally light and variable, calm at night.
By TUESDAY, a few wintry showers possible in southeast breezes 30-50 km/hr near south coast, lows -5 to -2 C, highs 3 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY little change, except a reduced chance for wintry showers, lows -4 to -1 C, highs 4 to 7 C.
Changes will be subtle even as far ahead as next weekend (13-14 Jan) and after that, it appears possible that the current controlling high pressure cell will collapse and a very cold northerly flow could then replace it by about Tuesday 16 Jan (approximately), bringing several days of windy, very cold weather with locally heavy snow showers. As I said in the trends above, confidence relatively low but it fits the apparent trend to stronger blocking over the Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland sectors in particular. The source of this very cold air would be polar rather than continental; it looks a bit similar to outbreaks in both January and December 2010 which by recent standards were considered extreme. Earlier indications that a slow return to seasonable weather was possible are not entirely discounted, that signal remains weak and off to the west in the central Atlantic on latest guidance.
My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few snowflakes at times but no accumulation, cold with a high near -2 C. A steady light snow began after sunset and about 10-15 cms expected through Saturday here. A snowstorm is developing also over the northeastern U.S. with 20-35 cm amounts inland, a rain-sleet-snow mix near the coast (south from Boston, snow at the coast north of there). That will be followed about three days later by sudden warming and highs near 15 C, with heavy rain, so all of this weekend snow (falling on bare ground in any places) will quickly melt away.
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Sunday, 7 January, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS: Dry and cold, temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal; week of 14-20 Jan could be as cold or colder. Sunshine near or above average, somewhat dependent on fog duration inland.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out quite cold and foggy in some inland areas, with a persistent frost that may not entirely lift even when temperatures get above freezing by afternoon, highs 3 to 6 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, very cold, widespread freezing fog is likely. Lows -6 to -2 C.
MONDAY sunny intervals will gradually replace low cloud and fog, very cold, highs 1 to 5 C.
TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, morning frosts severe but fog less widespread except inland north. Isolated wintry showers near south coast in a freshening southeast breeze sometimes reaching 30 to 50 km/hr. This wind may not be felt in central or northern counties closer to high pressure. Lows -6 to -2 C, highs 3 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will stay dry and cold, with at least some sunshine each day, winds light to moderate easterly, slowly backing to northeast, as the high drifts further west. Each day, temperatures in a similar range, lows -5 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
There could be a slight relaxation of the cold by weekend of 13-14 January as a somewhat variable northwesterly flow develops ahead of a second surge of cold air expected to arrive Monday 15th into Tuesday 16th. Temperatures on weekend could peak at around 7 or 8 C with less frost although lows close to freezing still. Then it may be a colder interval developing but this time with moderate northerly winds giving a stronger wind chill effect than we're seeing this week. With that northerly flow, some potential exists for locally significant snowfalls especially over parts of Ulster and Connacht, Leinster would be spared unless winds turn east of due north, but there will be snow showers moving south in the nearby Irish Sea, details on this could change (for one thing, the entire scenario of a colder week after 15 Jan is not really nailed down yet, it just seems like a much more likely outcome now).
My local weather on Saturday involved lots of work shovelling snow that fell all of last night and this morning here, amounting to 25 cm in town and (I was told) 40-50 cm on local ski hills. It is a late but welcome change in the weather for our ski-based winter economy. Meanwhile, some parts of PA, NY and New England are seeing similar amounts of snow, but it only rained along the coast, various mixed forms were reported in between. More powerful storms are expected across central and eastern North America all week, on a cycle of about 3-4 days, but the next two are likely to be snowstorms for the Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes, with milder southerly flow returning to the east coast and melting today's likely storm totals of 20-30 cm.
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Monday, 8 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, with near average sunshine, temperatures likely to average 3 or 4 deg below normal values. It also appears likely to stay quite cold all of the following week (15-21 Jan).
FORECASTS
TODAY, watch for icy stretches on some roads in Leinster and inland central counties, in fact anywhere that has seen early frost and fog, because a few mixed showers are feeding in from the Irish Sea and this could leave roadways wet, and/or could lead to eventual black ice for some locations. Conditions will be variable from one location to another, if you are driving any distance expect changing road conditions. Later today, any remnant ice fog will be slow to dissipate in some places. The weak bands of wintry showers will come and go, just small accumulations of rain or sleet expected, snow showers could fall well inland (trace to 1 cm amounts). Some sunny breaks later, cold with highs of 4 to 7 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, very cold, freezing fog is still possible. Lows -6 to -2 C. Icy conditions could return to generally same areas as this morning.
TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, morning frosts severe but fog less widespread except inland north. Isolated wintry showers near south coast in a freshening southeast breeze sometimes reaching 30 to 50 km/hr. This wind may not be felt in central or northern counties closer to high pressure. Lows -6 to -2 C, highs 3 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will stay dry and cold, with at least some sunshine each day, winds light to moderate easterly, slowly backing to northeast, as the high drifts further west. Each day, temperatures in a similar range, lows -5 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Winds most noticeable near south coast.
There is likely to be only a slight (if any) relaxation of the cold by weekend of 13-14 January as a somewhat variable northwesterly flow develops ahead of a second surge of cold air expected to arrive Monday 15th into Tuesday 16th. Temperatures on weekend could peak at around 7 or 8 C with less frost although lows close to freezing still, and patchy frost. Extent of frost depends on whether the high pressure area (now just north of Ulster) weakens or just slumps down over top of Ireland before giving way. Then it may be a colder interval developing but this time with moderate northerly winds giving a stronger wind chill effect than we're seeing this week. With that northerly flow, some potential exists for locally significant snowfalls especially over parts of Ulster and Connacht, Leinster would be spared unless winds turn east of due north, but there will be snow showers moving south in the nearby Irish Sea, Disturbances forming just south of Ireland and running east along the arctic front could bring sleet or snow, but so far no strong indications on actual threats, and we probably won't have very clear indications of details on day to day variations in this cold spell extension until later this week.
My local weather on Sunday continued overcast with a little more snow, about 5-7 cm on top of 25-30 from Saturday. It is turning steadily colder as we get into the outer edges of a vast area of very cold air now in place over all of northwestern Canada (currently -7 C). The New England snowfall event is winding down now, with 50 cm reported in n.e. MA, generally 30-40 in other parts of central New England. Attention now turns to a developing storm in the central plains states, likely to bring about 25 cm of snow to Chicago on Tuesday, and force warmer air up over the weekend snowfalls in the inland northeast, rapidly melting those, in addition to 50-75 mm rains and strong gusty winds. An even stronger storm on a similar track is expected to follow around Friday, possibly creating blizzard conditions in the Midwest U.S. states and parts of the Great Lakes region.
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Tuesday, 9 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, with near average sunshine, temperatures likely to average 2 or 3 deg below normal values. It also appears likely to stay quite cold all of the following week (15-21 Jan). Some slight moderation could occur around Sunday but it's unlikely to get much milder than 8 or 9 degrees even so.
FORECASTS
TODAY cloudy at first, then partly cloudy by afternoon, cold with southeast to easterly breezes sometimes reaching 30 to 50 km/hr. This wind may not be felt in central or northern counties closer to high pressure. A few wintry showers did develop during the night, and one or two more are likely this morning in Cork and Kerry but the impulse will weaken and drift out into the Atlantic by afternoon, skies will become partly cloudy in most areas, and sunny in a few places, with highs 3 to 6 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, very cold, freezing fog is still possible. Lows -6 to -2 C. Icy conditions could return to some areas by early morning.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will stay dry and cold, with at least some sunshine each day, winds light to moderate easterly, slowly backing to northeast, as the high drifts further west and closer to Ireland. Each day, temperatures in a similar range, lows -5 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Winds most noticeable near south coast until Friday, dropping off there as well.
SATURDAY will likely see a continuation of the cold, dry and nearly calm spell but it could turn a degree or two warmer, and by SUNDAY it could be briefly a little more moderate as the high weakens further, so expect maximum temperatures around 7 C on Saturday and 8 or 9 C by Sunday. Nights will be frosty in some places but with a bit more cloud around, lows could be closer to zero Celsius and in a range of -2 to +3 C.
A second surge of cold air is expected to arrive Monday 15th into Tuesday 16th, with a colder interval developing but this time with moderate northerly winds giving a stronger wind chill effect than we're seeing this week. With that northerly flow, some potential exists for locally significant snowfalls especially over parts of Ulster and Connacht, Leinster would be spared unless winds turn east of due north, but there will be snow showers moving south in the nearby Irish Sea, Disturbances forming just south of Ireland and running east along the arctic front could bring sleet or snow, but so far no strong indications on actual threats, and we probably won't have very clear indications of details on day to day variations in this cold spell extension until later this week. Part of the uncertainty is associated with a subtropical low forming by Wednesday near the Azores; it is expected to drift around in that part of the Atlantic for several days, different guidance sources have varying estimates of how much of that system could break away and move along a frontal boundary expected to be located about 200-300 miles south of Ireland by late this coming weekend. If very little energy from that storm reaches France then the second surge of arctic air will likely push south rather steadily but if a significant wave forms and moves east, it could hold up the forward progress of the cold air and a cold rain or sleety mix could develop for a time around Sunday into Monday in south coastal counties. Looking further ahead, some indications that the second half of January could eventually become "cold zonal" meaning a return to Atlantic-driven storms but with significant cold air intrusion from Greenland, a set-up that can bring snow to western counties and generally cold, raw and unpleasant weather conditions.
My local weather on Monday continued overcast at around -4 C, with just a small amount of snow, about 2-3 cm on top of 30-35 from the weekend. It is snowing a bit more this evening and about 20 cm is expected on Tuesday, as it turns steadily colder here. A developing storm in the central plains states, likely to bring about 15 cm of snow to Chicago on Tuesday, will force warmer air up over the weekend snowfalls in the inland northeastern states, rapidly melting those by tonight, in addition to 50-75 mm rains and strong gusty winds. An even stronger storm on a similar track is expected to follow around Friday into Saturday, possibly creating blizzard conditions in the Midwest U.S. states and parts of the Great Lakes region.
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Wednesday, 10 January, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS will continue cold and dry, now with generally 50 to 75 per cent of normal sunshine, temperatures likely to average 2 or 3 deg below normal values, a bit closer to average near east coast. It also appears likely to stay quite cold all of the following week (15-21 Jan). Some slight moderation could occur around Sunday but it's unlikely to get much milder than 8 or 9 degrees even so.
FORECASTS
TODAY cloudy in eastern counties at first, then partly cloudy by afternoon, sunny with cloudy intervals in west, cold with easterly breezes sometimes reaching 30 to 50 km/hr. This wind may not be felt in central or northern counties closer to high pressure. Some spotty drizzle in cloudy areas, or snow grains, no accumulation expected, with highs 3 to 6 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals in west, very cold, freezing fog is still possible. Lows -4 to -1 C. Icy conditions could return to some areas by early morning. Cloudy skies in east at times, may result in lows staying near or above 1 C, but still feeling quite cold.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will stay dry and cold, with at least some sunshine each day, breezes light to moderate easterly, slowly backing to northeast, as the high drifts further west and closer to Ireland. Each day, temperatures in a similar range, lows -4 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Winds most noticeable near south coast until Friday, dropping off there as well by then.
SATURDAY will likely see a continuation of the cold, dry and nearly calm spell but it could turn a degree or two warmer, and by SUNDAY it could be briefly a little more moderate, at least in the south, as the high weakens further, so expect maximum temperatures around 7 C on Saturday and 8 or 9 C by Sunday, but only near 6 C in north. Nights will be frosty in some places but with a bit more cloud around, lows could be closer to zero Celsius and in a range of -2 to +3 C. Winds rather light and variable Saturday and becoming northerly again by Sunday afternoon. Some drizzle or sleet could accompany the cold front moving south late Sunday.
A second surge of cold air is expected to arrive by Monday 15th into Tuesday 16th, with a colder interval developing but this time with moderate northerly winds giving a stronger wind chill effect than we're seeing this week. With that northerly flow, some potential exists for locally significant snowfalls especially over parts of Ulster and Connacht, Leinster would be spared unless winds turn east of due north, but there will be snow showers moving south in the nearby Irish Sea, Disturbances forming just south of Ireland and running east along the arctic front could bring sleet or snow, but still no strong indications on actual threats, and we probably won't have very clear indications of details on day to day variations in this cold spell extension until later this week. Part of the uncertainty is associated with a subtropical low forming by Wednesday near the Azores; it is expected to drift around in that part of the Atlantic for several days, different guidance sources have varying estimates of how much of that system could break away and move along a frontal boundary expected to be located about 200-300 miles south of Ireland by late this coming weekend. If very little energy from that storm reaches France then the second surge of arctic air will likely push south rather steadily but if a significant wave forms and moves east, it could hold up the forward progress of the cold air and a cold rain or sleety mix could develop for a time around Sunday into Monday in south coastal counties. This threat will remain all through next week, one model now shows a mixed wintry scenario as late as Thursday.
Looking further ahead, some indications continue that the second half of January could eventually become "cold zonal" meaning a return to Atlantic-driven storms but with significant cold air intrusion from Greenland, a set-up that can bring snow to western counties and generally cold, raw and unpleasant weather conditions. There are already strong disturbances moving east from North America but so far these have turned north before passing Greenland. If they start to power their way across the Atlantic, a lot of cold air can be dislodged from blocking highs further north to join the westerly flow; temperatures would likely be quite variable with rain in vicinity of frontal troughs and snow showers between events.
My local weather on Tuesday was overcast at around -2 C, with about 10 cms new snowfall, more snow is expected overnight as it starts to turn much colder. Very windy and wet on the east coast Tuesday night, but an even stronger storm on a similar track is expected to follow around Friday into Saturday, possibly creating blizzard conditions in the Midwest U.S. states and parts of the Great Lakes region, and another surge of mild air, strong winds and rain for the east coast.
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