Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

sryanbruen

Friday, 15 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS

No changes again. Rather wet with a particularly wet 24 hours through today and average temps/sunshine. An Atlantic flow set to dominate for the foreseeable future.

TODAY ... Wet all day long in the south and east with persistent rain. Localised flooding possible, mainly in the south and southeast where highest totals are expected. Cool under the rain with maximum temps getting up to only 12C. Drier in the northwest and west with the chance of sunny spells but still a lot of cloud likely. Temperatures here only slightly better getting up to 15C.

TONIGHT ... Rain could continue in the east and southeast but is expected to be lighter whilst most places will dry out with clearer skies occurring. Minimum temperatures getting down to 8 or 9C in light northerly breezes.

SATURDAY ... Further light rain cannot be ruled out in the east for a time with sunny spells elsewhere and the only the chance of isolated showers. Temperatures back to average getting up to the mid-teens with northeasterly winds strengthening.

SUNDAY ... Wet day likely with rain and showers arriving from the south on Sunday morning becoming persistent over the east. Winds easterly at first veering northwest later as the low pressure pushes into the Irish Sea. Spot flooding cannot be ruled out. Mid-teens afternoon values again.

MONDAY ... Sunshine and showers after the rain clears from the east coast with blustery westerly winds. Rain returning Monday night as winds veer southwest. Temperatures continue to be average in the mid-teens.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy day with rain pushing northwards followed by another front from the west later in the day. Milder in between but not much sunshine so the temperature won't rise all that much getting up to maybe 18C.

Low pressure dominated outlook with further bands of rain expected but with sunnier, showery moments in between. Standard Irish weather on the whole.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 16 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS

No changes in trends though turning cloudier now relative to average. Nationwide will have above average rainfall as an Atlantic airflow dominates. Temperatures continue to be average.

TODAY ... Cloudy in the south and east with a continuing risk of light rain and drizzle but nowhere near as wet as yesterday. Some brighter spells in the northwest with only a chance of isolated showers. Highest temperatures of 13-16C, highest in any sunnier spells in the west. Winds moderate northeasterly in direction.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy with rain approaching from the south spreading northwards through the early hours of the morning reaching most areas. Lowest temperatures around 10 or 11C.

SUNDAY ... Wet, especially in the east, with showers merging into longer spells of rain. Some brighter moments possible away from the south and east. Afternoon highs of 15-17C.

MONDAY ... A day of sunshine and showers in blustery westerly winds. Highest temperatures of 14-16C.

TUESDAY ... Rain spreading northwards and bringing in a milder sector of air but cloudy conditions will limit any significant rise in temperature with 17 or 18C likely the highest possible, more generally 15-16C under the cloud and rain.

WEDNESDAY ... After the rain clears, sunshine and showers will occur followed by more general rain approaching the northwest by the afternoon and lingering here overnight whilst the east looks drier at this point with only the risk of showers. Very windy with maximum temperatures of 15-17C.

Further unsettled weather at the end of next week with more sunshine and showers expected. The remnants of what look to be ex-hurricane Margot need to be watched nearing our shores by Monday 25th which could either bring a significant windy period of conditions or allow ridging to be amplified northward from the Azores. Something to keep an eye on in the meantime rather than sounding like a broken record with the unsettled, typical Irish autumn fare.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 17 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS

Trends remain the same with a wet and rather cloudy week expected and temperatures near average for the time of year. Possibly some signs of settling back down by the final week of the month, more details of this in the further outlook below.

TODAY ... Cloudy for the majority of the country with outbreaks of rain, some of which will be heavy in eastern counties. Possibility of localised flooding with rain likely to continue all day in the east. Drier in the west. Easterly winds moderate with afternoon values of 16-18C mostly.

TONIGHT ... Winds veering westerly attempting to clear any rain eastwards which will be followed by clear spells and scattered showers behind. Lowest temperatures getting down to 9-11C for most.

MONDAY ... Sunshine and showers with fresh westerly winds. Afternoon highs of 13-16C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, wet and windy with a milder sector of air giving an overall warmer, more humid feel but cloud won't favour much of a temperature rise. Afternoon highs likely around 16-18C, possibly 19C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunshine and showers with blustery southwesterly winds. Some of these showers may merge into longer spells of rain, particularly in the west. Afternoon values of 15-17C.

THURSDAY ... Cool and showery as winds veer more northwesterly resulting in highest temperatures of only 12-15C. Mildest in the south.

Next weekend is likely to bring further spells of rain and windy conditions. What happens thereafter is up for grabs with the remnants of what would be ex-hurricane Margot. Margot is likely to stay offshore based on most output but whether it brings a significant area of high pressure up from the Azores close enough to the country waits to be seen. This would settle the weather down and become drier. There would also be the chance of getting warmer with pretty pleasant daytime values in the high teens, maybe touching low 20s which is well above average for late September and early October. We shall see. Long way off.

sryanbruen

Monday, 18 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS

Wetter than average with the wettest conditions more focused on the northwest this time around compared to the past week where the south and southeast have been wettest.

Average temperatures for the time of year mostly with some cool days as the airflow becomes northwesterly.

Sunshine rather below average.

TODAY ... Cloud attempting to clear the east from the weekend's rain with widespread sunny spells this morning. Showers will get going later and through the afternoon turning heavy. Blustery westerly winds with afternoon highs of 13-16C.

TONIGHT ... Cloud approaching from the southwest with rain spreading northward after some clear spells initially and showers dying off. Windy with minimum temps around 10 or 11C typically.

TUESDAY ... Windy with on and off rain across the country, persistent in the west and north. There may be the odd sunny spell to the east of the Wicklow Mountains which may aid the temperature getting up to 20C, due to the foehn effect where the air dries out on the leeward side of the mountain. Cloudy for most however.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunshine and showers during the afternoon. Some of these will be heavy and frequent in nature. Brisk westerly winds with afternoon highs of 15-17C.

THURSDAY ... Another day of sunshine and showers. Winds veering northwesterly decreasing the temperature down to 12-16C.

FRIDAY ... A temporary ridge is likely to give a fair amount of dry weather but still a risk of scattered showers, particularly in the north. Quite cool with only 11-14C expected in northerly winds. Clear spells on Friday night likely to give local ground frost possible in the east.

SATURDAY ... Rain pushing into the country and becoming very windy again after a hazy but dry start to the day. Highest temps of 13-17C.

Unsettled weather to continue into Sunday and the start of the working week but signs still looking positive that the remains of ex-hurricane Margot will stay way out in the Atlantic and allow pressure to build from the south by the 26th settling the weather down. Temperatures in the mid to high teens would be expected by day with rather cool nights as nights become longer than the day and mist or fog forming under light winds.

sryanbruen

Tuesday, 19 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS

No changes, remain the same as they were. Wetter than average with below average sunshine and average temperatures for the time of year. Still looking like the final week of the month will see a settling down of the weather but no guarantee due to the placement of the high pressure.

TODAY ... Windy with rain coming and going from the southwest, most persistent in the west and north. Lighter in the east with the odd chance of the sun appearing east of the Wicklow Mountains where it could reach 19 or 20C but most places around 16 or 17C under cloud and rain.

TONIGHT ... Rain will continue through tonight and winds still very strong and gusty. There's the slight chance of thunder embedded in this rain too, mainly in the south. Mild night not getting any lower than 12C generally. Rain clearing to scattered showers and some clearer spells from the northwest through the early morning hours.

WEDNESDAY ... Very windy at first with winds easing through the day as rain clears the east of the country. There will be widespread showers however with sunny spells inbetween. Afternoon values of 12C in the northwest and up to 16C in the southeast.

THURSDAY ... Showers merging into longer spells of rain across the country through the day with some sunny spells. Afternoon highs of 12-16C with a fresh westerly wind.

FRIDAY ... Cool and mostly dry but with the continuing risk of scattered showers, particularly in the north. Maximum temps of 11-15C in moderate northwesterly to northerly winds. Cool on Friday night with possibility of local ground frost but cloud will approach from the south.

SATURDAY ... A hazy but dry start will quickly be replaced by incoming rain and stronger winds pushing northeastward through the day followed by scattered showers. This low will have likely been the result of ex-hurricane Nigel and the media has been doing its usual nonsense exaggerating this will severely impact Ireland. One need not worry, it looks like a standard autumnal day of wind and rain with not much effects expected at this point and its centre of very strong winds remaining offshore. Afternoon highs around 15 or 16C.

SUNDAY ... Sunshine and scattered showers with blustery westerly winds. Afternoon highs again around 15 or 16C.

There continues to be the chance of high pressure settling the weather down in the closing days of September but still not clear cut. The high pressure maybe too flabby and weak to build properly against the impending autumn in the North Atlantic and where the hurricanes end up exactly are important to determining this. When hurricanes stall in the Atlantic, they send warm air advection northward allowing pressure to build on their eastern side. This is what happened with Franklin and there have been many other examples in the past of this happening, this is the same mechanism to getting blocked winter cold spells too but with normal Atlantic lows instead of hurricanes. Very much a case of wait and see, can't say anything definitive.

This is likely to be my final forecast before MT makes a return.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 20 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Thanks to sryanbruen for taking charge of the weather machine while I rested in the sunny south. Encountered a few interesting brief storms in the desert regions, most notably one that spun up three interacting dust devils (perhaps not the best name as heavy rain was falling, but despite that desert sand was being sucked up into rotating columns, and we drove very close to them as their forward speed was not as impressive as their ability to rotate. Vivid lightning also accompanied. Will post a picture tomorrow as we sort out what pictures are worth saving. On the whole, weather for the trip was sunny to partly cloudy and warm to seasonably hot, in the range of 26 to 37 C for highs, nights can be quite cool in desert, 5 to 10 C commonly, wonderful stargazing (new moon during trip, Venus now very prominent before sunrise too, Jupiter all night, and odd to see winter constellations in early morning skies) and I believe I saw ball lightning after a storm, if not, UFO but it had all characteristics of ball lightning. It was apparently quite warm at home base too, but just turned a lot cooler on Tuesday, with a feel of autumn and a spectacular auroral display last night. Forecast will follow on from sryanbruen's work unless I see changes indicated on latest guidance ...

TRENDS

Somewhat warmer than average (1 to 2 deg above average) for the rest of September as strong Atlantic disturbances pump in southwest winds, wetter than average with below average sunshine for the time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... Very windy at first with winds easing through the day with variable cloudiness and passing showers, some thundery. Winds westerly at about 50 to 80 km/hr easing to 30 to 50 km/hr later. Some sunny intervals in the mix. Afternoon highs of 12C in the northwest and up to 16C in the southeast.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, cool and breezy, occasional light rain fairly frequent in west and north, lows 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers merging into longer spells of rain across the country through the day with some sunny spells. Afternoon highs of 12-16C with a fresh westerly wind tending to northwest at times, 40 to 60 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Cool and mostly dry but with the continuing risk of scattered showers, particularly in the north. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 10-14C in moderate northwesterly to northerly winds. Cool on Friday night with possibility of local ground frost but cloud will approach from the southwest so frost risk greatest in central, northern and eastern counties.

SATURDAY ... A hazy but dry start will quickly be replaced by incoming rain and stronger winds pushing northeastward through the day followed by scattered showers. This unsettled weather will have likely been the result of ex-hurricane Nigel which is currently expected to loop around to the west of Ireland in the vicinity of Iceland, so that strongest winds will be well out to sea. Even so, by afternoon, some western counties could see occasional gusts to 70 or 80 km/hr. Lows -1 to +5 C, afternoon or evening highs around 15 or 16C.

SUNDAY ... Sunshine and scattered showers with blustery westerly winds. Lows 7 to 10 C and highs again around 15 or 16C.

Remnants of Nigel may continue to unleash further waves of rain and wind towards Ireland in the days following, and another strong low is quite possible around Thursday 28th. That low is currently forming near the U.S. southeast coast and will probably be drenching a large portion of the eastern U.S. by this weekend, then tracking past Newfoundland towards regions of the Atlantic between Ireland and Iceland. All told, this will likely promote a warm, muggy southwest flow most of next week, with highs 18-21 C and lows 11-14 C. It could assist in keeping this September in the running to become warmest on record in parts of Ireland and the U.K.

In addition to all details already in the introduction today, local weather here on Tuesday was cloudy and cool with a strong northwest breeze and a high of about 13 C. Quite a contrast to a week ago for us (37 C at our desert stop last Tuesday at Valley of Fire State Park in southern Nevada.

* round of applause for sryanbruen *

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 21 September, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same, cool for a couple more days then turning quite warm and muggy over the weekend and into most of next week, with fairly frequent rainfalls returning after a more showery interval that could be relatively dry in the south and east until mid-day Saturday. Some sunshine in the mix, a rather typical warm autumn pattern ahead.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with bright skies in many parts, thicker cloud to be found near Donegal Bay and across north Ulster, moving into north Connacht and most of south Ulster later, but staying partly cloudy in many other regions. Rain may come and go with the northern cloud, but little to no rain is expected across the south, central and eastern counties, although a few afternoon sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Highs 14 to 16 C with moderate west-northwest breezes stronger near exposed coasts in west.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers for most, sporadic light rain continuing in west and north, lows 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, some bands of showers likely making some inroads from Atlantic into midlands, again though largely dry for south and east, with highs 14 to 16 C.

SATURDAY after a chilly start in east and north, rapidly warming to values similar to those already present under cloudier skies in south and west. Morning lows 1 to 4 C east and north, patchy ground frost possible in the usual low-lying valley districts. Lows 5 to 10 C under cloud further south and west. Becoming quite windy during the mid-day hours, southerly 50-70 km/hr, with higher gusts near coasts, intervals of rain but rather showery in nature, warmer and muggy, highs 17 to 19 C.

SUNDAY will continue rather warm and muggy with mostly cloudy skies, some brighter intervals, and sporadic rainfalls, in general a total weekend rainfall of 5-10 mm seems most likely. Winds not quite as strong from south-southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY further Atlantic disturbances being spun off by decaying Nigel near Iceland, will bring further intervals of rain and occasional moderate to strong wind gusts from south to southwest, lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.

This warmish, muggy weather will continue for several more days with a few more impulses in the train of weak frontal waves, similar temperatures, but eventually higher pressure may start to clear skies somewhat especially for the southeast as well as most of Britain, and it will stay relatively warm with a greater chance of overnight fog forming due to clearer skies.

My local weather on Wednesday was cool, partly cloudy after some morning light rain and fog, and when that cleared away we could see the first signs of snow on local hills above 1500 m elevation (we're closer to 1000 m here), snow likely falling recently at that elevation as it was about 5-7 C and raining "down below" ... by afternoon it was fairly pleasant with some sun at times, sprinkles of rain and highs near 15 C. We're expecting somewhat warmer weather by weekend. Meanwhile a subtropical low seems to be in the developmental stages east of Florida and could become a very wet system for the east coast further north by weekend. This one may or may not get a name as a tropical storm, but in any case will die out over New England and spawn a more conventional low that will travel quickly across the Atlantic to reach northwest Ireland around Tuesday.

Hope to post a storm photo soon, enjoy the day -- the autumn equinox does not actually occur today or even tomorrow but at 0750h Saturday 23rd this year.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 22 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the rest of September will include slightly above average temperatures, at least normal amounts of rain if not a bit above average especially in south, quite breezy at times, with good sunshine on a few days but also a lot of cloudy skies leading to a slightly below average sunshine total.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, some bands of showers likely making some inroads from Atlantic into midlands, and perhaps more persistent in Ulster into north Leinster, northwest breezes 40 to 60 km/hr, and highs 13 to 16 C (cooler north). Generally clearing by late afternoon with a few remnant sprinkles of rain with winds calming for evening.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy with increasing cloud after midnight from southwest, cool in east and north at first, scattered ground frost possible, lows 1 to 4 C, but rapidly warming to values similar to those already present under cloudier skies in south and west, 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY after a chilly start with patchy ground frost possible in the usual low-lying valley districts, warmer in southerly winds 50-70 km/hr, with higher gusts near coasts, intervals of rain but rather showery in nature, warmer and muggy in west, highs 17 to 19 C, perhaps closer to 15C in east and north.

SUNDAY will continue rather warm and muggy with mostly cloudy skies, some brighter intervals, and sporadic rainfalls, in general a total weekend rainfall of 5-10 mm seems most likely. Winds not quite as strong from south-southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY further Atlantic disturbances being spun off by decaying Nigel near Iceland, will bring further intervals of rain and occasional moderate to strong wind gusts from south to southwest, lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C for Monday, 16 C Tuesday, some guidance suggesting a split in low pressure approaching on Tuesday with a stronger portion breaking away to south and confining stronger wind gusts to southern England by Tuesday, but a few parts of the north could see a gusty southwest wind at times.

This changeable weather will continue for several more days with a few more impulses in the train of weak frontal waves, similar temperatures, but eventually higher pressure may start to clear skies somewhat especially for the southeast as well as most of Britain, and it will stay relatively warm with a greater chance of overnight fog forming due to clearer skies. Rather warm again by end of week (and month) as Sep 2023 fights to join with June as being warmest on record in parts of Ireland (at least in recent decades). In between, a rather average July in terms of average temperatures (but very cloudy and wet too), and a somewhat warmer August. I did a study of over 350 years of UK records and there, June and September have never been 1-2 in temperatures in any year, and it may occur this year, even in parts of Ireland too. June is likely to be the 1 of the 1-2 combination.

For my local weather, sunny skies all day, and gradually warming from near frost to a maximum of 20 C. Now you may hear that Ophelia is back, they did not retire the name after 2017, and tropical depression 16 could become tropical storm Ophelia near the coast of North Carolina later today, tracking up the inland portions of the east-central coastal states and dying out south of Long Island Sunday. Nearby lows will rob this Ophelia of energy and will begin to advance across the ocean by Sunday, reaching the vicinity of Ireland by Tuesday. Whether there is any connection to Ophelia by then is doubtful but some remnants of it could linger in the western Atlantic for a while and could energize further lows later in the week. Nigel, meanwhile, is becoming extra-tropical in the central Atlantic and will loop around south of Iceland for two days, before dissipating west of Ireland on Monday into Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 23 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures just slightly above normal, rainfall rather heavy especially for south, and sunshine infrequent at best.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become mostly cloudy with rain spreading in from the southwest, about 5-7 mm expected, moderate south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy with occasional rain, southerly winds 50-70 km/hr, lows 10 to 12 C.

SUNDAY windy and quite warm with showers and isolated thunderstorms, southerly winds 60-80 km/hr, highs 17 to 20 C.

MONDAY continued rather warm and muggy, occasional rain, south to southwest winds 60-80 km/hr, lows near 12 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

TUESDAY a bit fresher with southwest to west breezes, some brighter intervals, passing showers, lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY unsettled, with some potential for strong winds but this is not a sure outcome yet, some guidance is more moderate, at least some rain likely, lows around 7 C and highs 13 to 16 C. If strong winds do develop, they would be southwesterly gales of 70-110 km/hr, but that result could be felt only in parts of southern England if some guidance is correct.

By THURSDAY, further rain and gusty winds at times, and this regime could persist into early October, temperatures still a bit above average.

My local weather was partly cloudy to overcast and pleasantly warm, around 20 C. Tropical Storm Ophelia, very close to cat-1 hurricane intensity, is about to cross the NC coastline and will drift further north towards Chesapeake Bay. Uncertainty about 3-5 day evolution of Ophelia is one of the reasons for guidance uncertainty about developments further east in the Atlantic around Tuesday, and the question of the possible storm for Ireland by Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 24 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures a little above average, rainfall also rather generous, sunshine becoming infrequent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few showers, isolated thunderstorms, and outbreaks of heavier rain at times in the south and east, with flooding potential in counties around Waterford as 15-25 mm may fall there; mild to warm and muggy, with highs 17 to 21 C. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr, strong gusts around mid-day near southeast coast.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, showers and continued mild, lows 12 to 14 C. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

MONDAY variable cloud, further outbreaks of rain, winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows 12 to 14 C, highs 16 to 19 C.

TUESDAY cloudy with sunny breaks, passing showers, winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, backing to southerly with strong gusts possible overnight, intervals of heavy rain possible Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY still a chance of stormy weather developing, track of low could be further south taking strongest winds into southwest England and south Wales but this is not confirmed by all guidance yet. So there is still a watch needed for potential strong winds in parts of Ireland, and/or heavy rainfalls. Temperatures likely to be around 12-15 C.

The rest of week and month will likely continued unsettled, rather warm in a southwest flow, and variable with highs 16 to 18 C.

Ophelia is weakening to just a remnant low, and Philippe is now on the charts and expected to strengthen quite gradually; recent guidance has downgraded the potential for it to become a hurricane or to move very far past the central Atlantic although yet another tropical system may do so by about 6-7 October, so the unsettled period could continue well into October.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 25 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures a little above average, rainfall also rather generous, sunshine becoming infrequent. Breezy to windy at times but it appears that potential for a damaging windstorm event around mid-week is fading, at least for most of Ireland, still some risk for parts of the southeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring variable cloud, further outbreaks of rain, more persistent in western counties until evening, mild with highs 16 to 18 C. Winds southwest backing to southerly 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, showers and breezy, lows 9 to 12 C. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

TUESDAY cloudy with sunny breaks, passing showers, winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, backing to southerly with strong gusts possible overnight, intervals of heavy rain possible Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY intervals of rain will be rather heavy with 15-25 mm, cool and windy, for most regions winds southeast 50-80 km/hr, veering to southwest 60-90 km/hr, with lows 8 to 10 C and highs 13 to 15 C. Some risk remains for stronger and damaging winds, at least near southeast coast, but greater risks for southwest England and south Wales seeing peak gusts near 110 km/hr, but this is still not confirmed by all guidance yet. So there is still a need to watch for potential strong winds in parts of Ireland, and/or heavy rainfalls.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with rain at times, especially near southeast coast by evening, lows 7 to 9 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

FRIDAY into WEEKEND (30 Sep - 1 Oct) could see a drying trend with higher temperatures into 17-19 C range. Another windy and wet spell could arrive during the following week.

No change in trends concerning tropical systems, Ophelia is now just a remnant low, and Philippe continues to strengthen quite gradually; recent guidance has kept the potential for it to peak as a strong tropical storm or marginal hurricane in the west-central Atlantic and there is still potential for another tropical system to form near U.S. east coast (could be a second go-round for Ophelia after a dormant spell. For my local weather, the past two days have been foggy at times and otherwise cloudy with autumnal temperatures between 10 and 15 C. Ophelia has brought a regional rainfall of 50 to 100 mm and in some areas ended a late summer dry spell. Warm air made only limited inroads and most places saw temperatures steady in the range of 15 to 18 C with northeast winds 40 to 70 km/hr. It played out like a nor'easter rather than a tropical storm.

Bonus storm picture from recent vacation trip, taken in northern Arizona on 14th September. It produced some rotating dust devils and frequent lightning as well as about 15-20 mm rain near its core. Picture was taken after we drove through core, looking back to east.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 26 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will be quite unsettled with just brief intervals of dry or partly cloudy conditions, in a generally wet and sometimes windy regime, temperatures a little above average, rainfall also rather generous, sunshine infrequent.

STORM AGNES ... In developing stages northwest of Azores, likely to peak in intensity southwest of Ireland around 1200h Wed 27th, after which slowly losing energy tracking through Ireland later Wednesday. While a storm warning is no doubt justified, be aware that Agnes could be severe only near coastal strip from Kerry to Waterford, and may prove relatively tame if wet and windy elsewhere. That's an early call and it could require a change by final forecasts later today and Wednesday 0600h. Will provide updates as needed.

FORECASTS

TUESDAY some heavy showers with isolated thunder, local downpours in southeast and east Ulster in particular, and gusty southerly winds, then partial clearing, front should be in Dublin area 0830-1030h this morning; after passage, winds veering to southwest, then dropping off for a while and highs around 15 to 17 C. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, backing to southerly. Any lull in winds this evening will be short lived.

TONIGHT will be breezy then windy, with intervals of rain spreading into south and west, winds south backing to southeast 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed coastal areas later in the night.

WEDNESDAY intervals of rain will be rather heavy with a widespread 15-25 mm and local 25-40 mm, cool and windy, for most regions winds southeast 50-80 km/hr, veering to southwest 60-90 km/hr, with lows 8 to 11 C and highs 13 to 16 C. A moderate risk remains for stronger and damaging winds, at least near south coast from Kerry to Wexford, peak gusts 110 to 130 km/hr, and locally heavy rainfalls of 25-40 mm. Given that trees are still in leaf, potential for disruption from falling branches needs to be taken seriously even if winds do not exceed "yellow" warning criteria in some regions inland or near east coast. Also the combined effects of leaf fall and rain during passage of "Agnes" could create brief intervals of flooding. Some guidance forecasts an interval of very stormy conditions in west Munster around noon, but that would not necessarily spread further east or north due to gradual weakening of the system by afternoon. It's a case of being prepared for bad conditions but remaining optimistic that it will not be a worst case scenario, but we cannot rule out severe conditions in a few locations. Stay tuned.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with rain at times, especially near southeast coast by evening, lows 7 to 9 C and highs 14 to 16 C. Winds less blustery but a few intervals of moderate southwest breezes 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY a few sunny intervals, mild and breezy, rain redeveloping overnight into Saturday, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY windy with rain at times, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, lows near 10 C and highs 18-20 C.

A return to unsettled weather is likely but not certain for early October.

No change in trends concerning tropical systems, Ophelia is now just a remnant low, and Philippe continues to strengthen quite gradually; recent guidance has revised its potential to peak soon as only a moderate tropical storm and a second disturbance following it could take over as a better candidate for eventual hurricane development in the west-central Atlantic, and there is still potential for another tropical system to form near U.S. east coast (it could be a second go-round for Ophelia after a dormant spell).

My local weather was foggy then cloudy with sunny breaks, and fairly warm at 18 C.

<<< Update on Agnes will likely be provided around 7-8 p.m. or sooner if necessary >>>

M.T. Cranium

Storm Agnes update _ Tues 26 Sep 7 p.m.

No major changes in forecast after review of latest guidance. Expect a high impact rain and wind event in parts of Munster and moderate impacts further east and around the southeast, trending more to low impact central, west and north.

Peak wind gusts of 130-140 km/hr are possible in coastal west Munster from about 0900h to 1300h. Trees may be felled and with 20-40 mm rainfalls, local washouts and mudslides could also block roads. Travel is not recommended in Munster during passage of storm, and extreme caution is recommended in south Leinster also.

Peak winds will rapidly extend further east along the south coast during the period 10:00 to 14:00 and the Dublin area will likely see two peaks in wind speed (at more moderate levels around 100 km/hr) from southeast mid-day and from southwest late afternoon.

See morning forecast around 0630h for latest updates and stay tuned to all available forecast and emergency service statements and warnings from public authorities.

Storm is currently in a rapid intensification stage around 47N 20W on its way towards a landfall in Clare tomorrow mid-day. This overnight development will create a swath of very strong south to southwest winds aimed at west Munster and those will begin to make landfall around 0700h, peaking a few hours later.

Another feature to watch for is a broken squall line likely to race east across Munster and south Leinster late morning into mid-day, and that could contain some damaging wind gusts and thunderstorm cells, even a tornadic wind streak cannot be ruled out, most likely areas at risk would be 10-50 km inland from coast in east Cork, Waterford, Wexford, south Carlow.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 27 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue as described yesterday ... will be concentrating on Storm Agnes today.

Agnes was located near 49N 16W at 0600h today and will be passing Kerry around noon en route to a landfall in Clare by 3 p.m. Central pressure is about 970 mbs.

Strongest winds are not along that track but are located about 50-100 km further east, so those strong winds will hit the west Munster south coast around 0900 to 1300 hours and could be around 80 to 110 km/hr with gusts to 130 not ruled out. Some guidance shows Agnes weakening just before passing Kerry and that could reduce wind gusts somewhat but in any case other guidance continues to show a strong storm to mid-afternoon with a weakening trend only after that.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see rapidly increasing southeast to south winds (80 to 110 km/hr, local gusts to 130 possible) in Munster and Leinster, with outbreaks of heavy rain (25-40 mm possible) and thunder quite possible, with risk of locally severe cells producing hail and strong wind gusts. Local flooding and mudslides are possible especially across the south this morning. The inland southeast to the Waterford and Wexford coasts could also see brief tornadic wind streaks producing localized damage. Further north, the rain will be drizzly at times with winds dropping off towards afternoon as the slack central pressure gradient of the weakening low approaches. A moderate southwest wind, fed by westerly gales near the Shannon estuary, will funnel through the midlands and will reach Dublin about 4-6 p.m at 60-90 km/hr. The highs will reach 15 or 16 C. Only by evening will winds really pick up in parts of the north after some moderate gusts and the slack winds associated with the approach of the weakening centre. By evening, winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr in Connacht and west Ulster.

TONIGHT continued breezy and locally windy, with a few showers, winds westerly 50-70 km/hr, lows near 11 C.

THURSDSAY will start out blustery with a brief interval of heavy showers, then variable cloud with some brighter intervals, highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy at first, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C. Overcast and breezy with rain at times overnight.

SATURDAY rain tapering off to showers, breezy, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, mild, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

Local weather for my part of the world was foggy to overcast with drizzly rain at times, and highs near 14 C.

Would recommend the ongoing Agnes storm thread as best source of updates as the storm approaches and plays out today. Overall, it should be fairly moderate away from the coastal south but would watch for road flooding problems as combination of rain and falling leaves can block road drains.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 28 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will be generally close to average, perhaps a bit warmer with near average rainfall and sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cloudy but generally dry, with spotty light rain spreading east, becoming more persistent in Munster and parts of Connacht by afternoon, highs around 17 C. Winds becoming south to southwest 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT rain, patchy fog at times across the south, variable cloud further north, showers. Lows near 9 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, any sunshine feeling quite warm, rain by evening in west; highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY rain tapering to showers, 10-15 mm potential, partial clearing by afternoon at least in western counties, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Some intervals of moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr.

SUNDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY remnants of TS Philippe could be near Ireland, breezy to windy with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. No heavy rain or high winds are indicated so far, a rather typical autumn unsettled day is expected at worst.

Although Philippe shows no signs of being very strong, the disturbance now following which would become Rina if named, could be stronger, and reach hurricane status. At present, guidance suggests Rina will stay in the central Atlantic and will not follow some other tropical systems further east, but rather will be swirling around west of the Azores for over a week in October. For my local weather, foggy with rain and a slow clearing later afternoon, highs about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 29 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will be generally close to average, perhaps a bit warmer with near average rainfall and sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with sunshine for parts of the morning and mid-day hours, to overcast by afternoon, any sunshine feeling quite warm, rain by evening in west; highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT rain spreading across the country from southwest, lows 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY rain tapering to showers, 10-15 mm potential, partial clearing by afternoon at least in western counties, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Some intervals of moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr and possibly 60-80 km/hr near south coast.

SUNDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY and possibly even THURSDAY could stay dry now that remnants of TS Philippe appear to be moving at a slower pace and may only have a slight effect by late Thursday or Friday as it tries to merge with a frontal system to its north; highs could be 18 to 20 C in a southwest flow, skies partly cloudy to overcast, and just slight rainfalls in western counties. Lows 8 to 10 C in a mild regime.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is very mild and generally dry.

Although Philippe shows some signs of intensifying next week, the disturbance now following it, which became TS Rina earlier today, now looks weaker as it struggles to stay outside of Philippe's outflow, and Rina could take several days to reach hurricane status; if it does, it will likely stay in the central Atlantic and will not follow some other tropical systems further east, but rather will be swirling around west of the Azores for over a week in October.

For my local weather, partly cloudy and dry with highs about 14 C. Heavy rain is developing on the east coast of the U.S., and it could last for several days.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 30 September, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will continue a bit warmer than normal, with near normal rain and sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY intervals of rain, heavy at times around late morning, especially over Cork and Kerry (20-30 mm possible there, otherwise 10-20). Winds moderate south to southwest 40-60 km/hr, highs around 17 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers and thunderstorms, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C. Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 16 C. Some rain at times near west and north coasts.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some rain at times, gradually spreading further east, mild, highs 16 to 18 C, and winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

Somewhat cooler by weekend of 7-8 October, passing showers, highs 12 to 14 C.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with shower clouds over hills to our north, highs near 15 C. Expecting a sunny and warmer weekend. New York City saw some torrential rainfalls on Friday and over 200 fell at several locations setting daily records.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS generally a little warmer than normal, with 75% of normal rainfall and near average sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers mostly in parts of north and west, and highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, a few showers, lows 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers and thunderstorms, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C (range 13 to 17 from cool northwest to milder southeast). Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr with gusts to 80 km/hr near Atlantic coasts.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 16 C. Some rain at times near west and north coasts.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some rain at times, rain gradually spreading further east, mild, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C, and winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Rain likely to be heavy at times towards Thursday night and Friday in north.

WEEKEND of 7-8 OCTOBER with very warm air spreading into Britain, some parts of southeast Ireland could also be quite warm but with some uncertainty, most of Ireland seems likely to be in a frontal rainfall band that could be heavy in western counties, highs likely to range from about 20 C in southeast to 14 C in northwest.

The following week appears settled and quite mild, although cool enough at night to promote frequent fog under persistent high pressure.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy with a high near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS generally a little warmer than normal, with 75% of normal rainfall and near average sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, isolated showers and thunderstorms , lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C (range 13 to 17 from cool northwest to milder southeast). Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr with a few gusts to 80 km/hr near Atlantic coasts.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, rain at times, lows 5 to 7 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals for south and east, and highs near 16 C. Some rain at times near west and north coasts, leading to just a few isolated showers further east.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some rain at times, rain gradually spreading further east, mild, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C, and winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

THURSDAY cloudy with rain becoming heavy at times towards evening in parts of west and north, windy (southwest 50 to 80 km/hr).

FRIDAY breezy and very mild, occasional rain but some hazy sunshine in east, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

This warmer spell may last a few days into mid-October before a more variable regime replaces it, with winds west to northwest and rather strong at times.

My local weather was sunny with highs near 18 C on Sunday, expecting cloud and showers today.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS generally a little warmer than normal, with 75% of normal rainfall and near average sunshine.Rainfall becoming heavier in western counties during this week and following week also.

FORECASTS

TODAY sunny with cloudy intervals for south and east, and highs near 16 C. Some rain at times near west and north coasts, leading to just a few isolated showers further east.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, rain at times in west and north, lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some rain at times, rain gradually spreading further east, mild, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C, and winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

THURSDAY cloudy with rain becoming heavy at times towards evening in parts of west and north, windy (southwest 50 to 80 km/hr).

FRIDAY breezy and very mild, occasional rain but some hazy sunshine in east, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, hazy, warm, lows 8 to 12 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SUNDAY overcast, still quite warm but with some rain possible in west and north mainly, highs near 18 C.

It may cool off to near average mid-October temperatures in brisk westerly winds and variable skies after the weekend but some days will continue to produce above nornal temperatures in warm sectors of fast-moving disturbances.

My local weather (on the coast in Vancouver for a few days) was overcast with rain and drizzle, foggy, and highs around 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS very warm for the following week, then turning colder in stages in the interval following Thursday 12th. Near averae rainfalls for most, and some sunshine at times, but rather cloudy on most days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few isolated showers except near north coast where steady rain (5-15 mm) is likely. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, lows 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY mainly cloudy, mild, rain heavy at times in west, and spreading at times further east, highs 17 to 19 C.

FRIDAY rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, partial clearing, hazy and warm. Lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

SATURDAY hazy and warm, some sun and some intervals of overcast, lows 12 to 14 C, highs 20 to 23 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, continued warm, lows near 13 C and highs near 21 C. Some rain may begin to move gradually east across Atlantic coastal counties.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY and possibly even THURSDAY will continue very mild or warm, with a few outbreaks of rain but some continuing intervals of hazy sunshine in eastern and some southern counties at times. Highs will continue near 20 C.

By about THURSDAY or FRIDAY of next week (12th-13th) much cooler air may begin to take over in a northerly flow. Probably too early to speculate on details but guidance suggests temperatures cold enough for some frosts and possibly even sleety mixed showers but as we know, these longer range model trends can disappear closer to the time so this much colder spell should be regarded as having, at best, moderate confidence levels.

My local weather, still on the coast rather than at home further inland, mostly cloudy but dry, a few glimpses of sun late in the day, highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, very warm and rather wet at first, especially in western counties. Near normal sunshine despite a cloudy first day or two.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with further outbreaks of rain, mild and becoming muggy, with highs of 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with some rain at times, or drizzle. Lows 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy at first with occasional rain, followed by partial clearing, quite warm with highs of 18 to 20 C.

SATURDAY hazy sunshine at times, warm, highs 20 to 23 C. Some rain at times in parts of Ulster as a weak front pushes slowly south.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, hazy and warm in east, overcast with occasional rain in north, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 19 to 22 C except 15 to 18 C in parts of Ulster.

It will remain quite warm most of next week with highs in the low 20s then it could start to turn much colder around late Thursday into Friday (12-13 Oct), and there could be several days if not more of very cool almost wintry weather (highs 5 to 8 C) in stark contrast to this extended warm spell (following a very warm September). This cold spell, if it does materialize (still over a week away) could also end abruptly with a return to warmer conditions. The latest guidance from the GFS model suggests cold will last from late Wednesday 11 Oct to about Wednesday 18 Oct after which considerably warmer conditions would return (14-17 C).

Local weather on our return trip to home base from the coast, overcast at first, then sunny once inland past the upslope cloud over the Cascades, but back into a separate area of cloud near end of trip, highs along the route near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... very warm, highs into low 20s, and nights very mild, to Wednesday, then colder; only small amounts of rain expected, and sunshine near average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy at first with occasional rain in a few western and northern counties, followed by partial clearing, quite warm with highs of 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be hazy, generally dry and very mild. Rain or drizzle confined to north Ulster. Lows 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY hazy sunshine at times, warm, highs 21 to 24 C. Some rain at times in parts of Ulster as a weak front remains in the vicinity.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, hazy and warm in east, overcast with occasional rain in north, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 19 to 23 C except 15 to 18 C in parts of Ulster.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will remain warm, and generally dry, with hazy sunshine, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY will become windy with passing showers and falling temperatures; lows 8 to 11 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, cool, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 9 to 12 C. It may turn a bit milder again FRIDAY and SATURDAY (13-14 Oct) with rain developing, then another somewhat colder interval; guidance has downgraded the intensity of colder weather but is replacing that theme with frequent storms with strong wind and rain, and temperatures not that high either (8 to 11 C) so it may be a rather dubious downgrade, some might prefer crisp, cold weather to windy, raw and cool conditions.

My local weather was quite pleasant, partly cloudy to sunny, and highs around 17 C. Clear overnight and more sunshine expected for several more days.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... very warm, highs into low 20s, and nights very mild, to Wednesday, then colder; only small amounts of rain expected, and sunshine near average.

FORECASTS

TODAY hazy sunshine at times, warm, highs 21 to 24 C. Some rain at times in parts of Ulster as a weak front remains in the vicinity. Also rather cloudy near south coast holding temperatures down to about 18 C locally.

TONIGHT will be hazy, generally dry and very mild. Rain or drizzle confined to north Ulster. Lows 12 to 15 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, hazy and warm in east, overcast with occasional rain in north, lows 12 to 15 C and highs 19 to 23 C except 15 to 18 C in parts of Ulster and near south coast.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will remain warm, and generally dry, with hazy sunshine, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY will become windy with passing showers and slowly falling temperatures; lows 8 to 11 C and highs 13 to 17 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, cool, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 11 to 15 C. It may turn a bit milder again FRIDAY with rain developing and highs 17-19 C, then another somewhat colder interval over weekend of 14th-15th, dry on Saturday but rain again on Sunday, windy; guidance continues to downgrade the intensity of colder weather but by about 15th it replaces that theme with frequent storms with strong wind and rain, and temperatures not that high either (8 to 12 C). A regime of alternating unsettled and mild, dry days is indicated later in October.

My local weather was very fine on Friday, sunny, and highs around 15 C. Clear overnight and more sunshine expected for several more days.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 October, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm until mid-week, most locations dry, with some sun at times; following a showery cold front Wednesday, cooler but not dropping below average, with heavier rain towards Thursday night.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy, hazy and warm in east, overcast with occasional rain in north, and highs 19 to 23 C except 15 to 18 C in parts of Ulster and near south coast.

TONIGHT will be hazy, generally dry and very mild. Lows 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will remain warm, and generally dry, with hazy sunshine, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

TUESDSAY partly cloudy, quite warm, rain at times in northwest, spreading to central counties by evening, lows 11 to 14 C, highs 17 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY will become windy in parts of north, with rain across southern counties until afternoon, clearing gradually further north to give some sunny intervals there, slowly falling temperatures; lows 8 to 11 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, cool, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Rain by evening, except for intermittent light rain all day near south coast as the front will stall and return north, leading to intervals of heavy rain at times overnight.

FRIDAY rain clearing east, sunny intervals by afternoon, lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C, then SUNDAY 15th rain at times, becoming windy, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

Looking quite unsettled and at times wet, for second half of month.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny again with highs around 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm for two days, most locations dry, with some sun at times, but some rain in north; following a showery cold front Wednesday, cooler but not dropping below average, with heavier rain towards Thursday night. Cooler and dry intervals from Friday to mid-day Sunday, rain returning then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain warm, and generally dry, with hazy sunshine and intervals of cloud, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 19 to 23 C except 15 to 18 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT will be hazy, generally dry and very mild, occasional rain far north. Lows 12 to 15 C.

TUESDSAY partly cloudy, quite warm, rain at times in northwest and most of Ulster, spreading to central counties during afternoon and evening, lows 11 to 14 C, highs 17 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY will become colder in parts of north, with rain across southern counties until afternoon, clearing gradually further north to give some sunny intervals there, slowly falling temperatures; lows 8 to 11 C and highs 13 to 16 C south, 10 to 13 C north.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, cool, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Rain by evening, except for intermittent light rain all day near south coast as the front will stall and return north, leading to intervals of heavy rain at times overnight, potential for 20-30 mm in south coast counties.

FRIDAY rain clearing east, sunny intervals by afternoon, breezy to windy, cool, lows near 7 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool, lows -1 to +3 C with frost possible inland, and highs 9 to 13 C, then SUNDAY 15th rain at times, becoming windy late in day, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

A generally mild and mobile Atlantic-driven regime (quite normal for late October) seems to be the dominant theme for second half of October.

My local weather was sunny and quite warm on Sunday, highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm today but cooler in stages from Wednesday to Saturday, rain at times will amount to near normal amounts in most places, sunshine limited. Cool and dry next week as blocking high pressure over Scandinavia promotes east winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy, quite warm, rain at times in northwest and most of Ulster, spreading to central counties during afternoon and evening, highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT rain will spread south into most counties by dawn, lows 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will become colder in parts of north, with rain across southern counties until afternoon, clearing gradually further north to give some sunny intervals there, slowly falling temperatures; lows 8 to 11 C and highs 13 to 16 C south, 10 to 13 C north.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, cool, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Rain by evening, except for intermittent light rain all day near south coast as the front will stall and return north, leading to intervals of heavy rain at times overnight, potential for 20-30 mm in south coast counties.

FRIDAY rain persistent across south, intermittent showers gradually clearing central and north, cool. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool, lows -1 to +3 C with frost possible inland, and highs 9 to 13 C.

SUNDAY it now appears that rain could be held back or confined to a few parts of the southwest, other areas partly cloudy and cool with southeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

There is considerable uncertainty as to how long this blocking pattern could last next week, holding back Atlantic fronts and pushing a segment of the jet stream further south; eventually guidance returns the active weather and heavy rain could develop about a week into the outlook period, possibly ass early as 20th but more definitely by 24th or so. Temperatures in this blocking interval could be fairly cool but frost may be patchy and confined to central counties.

On our Canadian thanksgiving day, our local weather was sunny with increasing high cloud, and pleasantly warm near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below average, rainfall about 50-75 per cent of normal and sunshine limited at first but eventually keeping pace with average values (about 3.5 hours a day by mid-October.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become colder in parts of north and central counties, with rain across southern counties until afternoon, with isolated thunder near south coast, clearing gradually further north to give some sunny intervals there, slowly falling temperatures; highs 13 to 16 C south, 10 to 13 C north.

TONIGHT rain will gradually end in the south, cloudy with lows 2 to 5 C. Further north, partly cloudy, cold, isolated frosts, lows -1 to +3 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, cool, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Rain resuming in south coast counties by afternoon, intervals of heavier rain at times overnight although track of 20-30 mm rainfalls now looking likely to stay offshore before hitting southwest England on Friday.

FRIDAY rain ending across south during early morning, intermittent showers in a strong northwest wind 50-70 km/hr, cool. Some sun in the mix too. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool, lows -1 to +3 C with frost possible inland, and highs 9 to 13 C.

SUNDAY intervals of cloud and sun, lows -2 to +2 C, and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, lows -1 to +3 C, and highs 11 to 15 C. Southeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

Several dry but milder days are expected to follow, but a reinforcing surge of cold air could drop temperatures again around Friday 20th.

On Tuesday our local weather was overcast with occasional light rain, cooler with highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below average, rainfall about 50-75 per cent of normal and sunshine limited at first but eventually keeping pace with average values (about 3.5 hours a day by mid-October). Frosts will be part of the picture, in fact the first air frost of the autumn is being reported this morning in a few parts of Connacht.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, cool, highs 11 to 14 C. Rain resuming in south coast counties by afternoon.

TONIGHT intervals of heavier rain at times and track of this rainfall now looking capable of producing 15-25 mm near southeast coasts, 5 to 15 mm from about Cork to Dublin, less further north with dry intervals and showers. Lows 5 to 8 C, except 3 to 5 C in Ulster and parts of Connacht.

FRIDAY rain ending across south during early morning, intermittent showers in a strong northwest wind 50-70 km/hr, cool. Some sun in the mix too. Showers could produce hail and isolated thunder; highs 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool, lows -1 to +3 C with frost possible inland, and highs 9 to 13 C.

SUNDAY frost and fog patches to start, intervals of cloud and sun, lows -2 to +2 C, and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, lows -1 to +3 C, and highs 11 to 15 C. Southeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY variable cloud, a bit of low cloud and drizzle near south coast, winds easterly 30-50 km/hr, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 10 to 14 C.

Several dry but milder days are expected to follow, but a reinforcing surge of cold air could drop temperatures again around Friday 20th or perhaps a bit later into weekend of 21st-22nd; variable conditions will follow. There are differences from model to model, as to intensity of colder outbreaks to come, and given the form of the recent past, warmer solutions probably have greater credibility, but trends could go either way. The first significant uncertainty is probably how long rain in the Atlantic will actually stay to south next week, it is possible that forecasts about a generally dry week could change if Atlantic storms prove stronger.

My local weather continued cloudy and wet with low cloud and fog, clearing slowly by afternoon; it's now clear and cold. The day was quite chilly with highs barely reaching 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 October, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below average, rainfall about 20-40 per cent of normal (after today's rain in south, quite dry to possibly Wednesday 18 Oct) and sunshine keeping pace with average values (about 3.5 hours a day by mid-October) and possibly a bit above average in central counties. Frosts and early fog will be part of the picture as is typical of season.

FORECASTS

TODAY rain ending across south during morning, intermittent showers developing further north in a strong northwest wind 50-70 km/hr, cool. Some sun in the mix too. Showers could produce hail and isolated thunder; highs 10 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated frost and a few remnant s owers mostly in Connac t and Ulster. Lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool, lows -1 to +3 C with frost possible inland, and highs 9 to 13 C.

SUNDAY frost and fog patches to start, intervals of cloud and sun, lows -2 to +2 C, and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, lows -1 to +3 C, and highs 11 to 15 C. Southeast winds 30-50 km/hr. Intervals of drizzle and low cloud possible in south coast especially Cork and Kerry, but this rainfall not expected to be heavy (1-3 mm) or to infiltrate further north than Cork to Waterford.

TUESDAY variable cloud, a bit of low cloud and drizzle near south coast, winds easterly 30-50 km/hr, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 10 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY rain will slowly move north and cover some parts of the south, cloudy further north. Lows 7 to 10 C, highs 13 to 16 C.

The easterly influence will continue and regime will be a mixture of cloudy, dry days and showery days, temperatures near late October normal values (highs near 14 C).

My local weather on Thursday was overcast to noon and then sunny, high near 14 C. Dry weather will continue here, and we hope to get a good view of the expected 80% eclipse of the Sun on Saturday around 0930h. This will be total (but annular, the Sun will not be fully covered) across parts of the western U.S.; would go for a view of it ("ring of fire") but there's a total full-coverage eclipse due on April 8th in Texas. This all takes place around sunset to late evening in Europe and there is no partial eclipse predicted there before sunset.